Movie Spoiler THE CAMPAIGN (2012) starring Will Ferrell - after review

The Campaign is a new political satire from Jay Roach (Austin Powers, Meet the Parents), who has been wetting his lips lately with screenplays like Recount and Game Change (both produced for HBO), based on real events. This fictitious film deals partly with the formula running for office has become with focus groups, polling, and media savvy. One character quips at one point, "It's all math." Ironically, it has been pretty common these days to match up one successful comedy star with another in a buddy film, especially if each of their track records hasn't been completely bullet-proof. It's all about the math. If you take Will Ferrell, who has only had two quasi-hits in the last four years (which is more than most), and Zach Galifianakis, two-thirds of his homeruns belong to the Hangover franchise, you theoretically double your chances of winning. The creative accounting of Hollywood often includes hiding budget costs, so it's hard to determine if The Campaign's solid opening numbers mean anything at this point. But, chances are, audiences probably expect to guffaw more than they will here. Ferrell and Galifianakis play rival political opponents Cam Brady and Marty Huggins, respectively, in an important U.S. senate election. Brady is a career politician whose recent affair sends his numbers into the crapper; he gives up every last ounce of integrity to raise them. Huggins is a small-town tour guide with a lisp. He also happens to be the son of a prominent local figure and Koch-like brothers played by Dan Aykroyd and John Lithgow (in a hat-tip to Trading Places) buy him out and give him a complete makeover to challenge Brady's senate seat. The movie is discreet about the lead character's party affiliations. I thought Brady was mostly a barb against the Republicans, based on his actions, but technically played a Democrat, probably a Blue Dog (complete with a career-climbing wife), to be more specific. Huggins is the Republican candidate (but, he's more like a Democrat in Republican clothes), perhaps intentionally, as Huggins stands for the people and what he believes to be true, and runs the cleaner campaign. Whatever the case, there is an obvious mild anti-Republican tone, limiting its appeal. While the movie clips along, there aren't any huge belly-laughs in what is essentially a sobering, but earnestly pat story on the state of national American elections.  There are worse things than this film, but it certainly tickled the funny bone on very few occasions, replete with awkward ending, leaving one to wonder what was left out and why.

Move Spoiler Summary
After a political rally for North Carolina Democrat Cam Brady (Wil Ferrell), the Senatorial incumbent shtups an actress (Kate Lang Johnson) in a Port-o-Potty. Thanks to foolishly leaving a message at a wrong-number ("I wish I wasn't eating fried steak; I wish I was eating Shana pussy") his indiscretion leads to a scandal and a plummeting approval rating. Glenn (John Lithgow) and Wade (Dan Aykroyd) Motch, a couple of wealthy brothers, written as a thinly veiled barb against the Koch brothers, decide this would be the perfect opportunity to soak their money into a prop candidate, who will carry out their wishes, including a deal to basically sell the state of South Carolina to China. In a hat tip to Trading Places, they choose to Marty Huggins (Zach Galifianakis), a small-town tour guide who doesn't live up to his wealthy father's expectations.  His dad Raymond (Brian Cox) lukewarmly informs his son of the Motch's plans.  "You look like Richard Simmons just crapped out a God-damned hobbit."

In "Mera-Kai" (sounds like America), China, the Motch brothers visit a doll factory and tell Mr. Zheng (Tzi Ma) that they plan to import his entire business model, eliminating shipping costs. Brady realizes he mistakenly thought he had the election sewn up when Marty arrives at the courthouse to announce his candidacy for the 14th Congressional District. "Back in the fourth grade, they used to call him Tickle-shits. All you had to do was tickle him and he'd shit his pants." During dinner, the Brady's discuss their predicament while having their kids listen to their music (hip-hop song about "ass and titties") on headphones. At the Huggins' family dinner, Marty has his sons put their cards on the table, as their lives are about to be scrutinized under a microscope. ("I went to a petting zoo and I let a goat lick my penis"; "One time I put a firefly in my butthole, to make my farts glow") At a luncheon, Brady presents a humiliating short film about Huggins. Tim Wattley (the incredibly dashing Dylan McDermott) pops up as Huggins' campaign manager. Before the first debate, Brady subjects Huggins to an abnormally long handshake complete with insults. Tim gives Huggins a complete makeover and, during the second debate, he's a big hit. "Let's clean up DC. And bring your brooms, because, it's ... a mess." Afterwards, there is a baby kissing opportunity which leads to Brady accidentally punching the baby.

After the press crucifies Brady yet again, he has his media specialists come up with negative campaign ads. Later, he meets with some wealthy figures who want to buy his influence. At a town hall debate, when citizens start to tighten the screws on Brady, he throws out some lies about Huggins. While trying to prove he is "Christian enough" for America, he fucks up the Lord's Prayer. During visits to various religions, Brady incurs a snake bite, placing him in the hospital. Tim oversteps his boundaries and interrupts Huggins' family time. Brady realizes his questionable behavior has rubbed off on his son's ethics. After relaying a childhood story about getting the jaggedy jungle gym removed as class president, Brady leaves Huggins' home drunk, while listening to Heart's "These Dreams" and "Barracuda." Huggins' call to the police results in Brady's arrest. During the next debate, Huggins' uses Brady's grade-school illustrated story "Rainbow Land" against him, insinuating it as communist propaganda. A melee results and Brady and Huggins get into another fight ending in Brady punching a Uggie the Dog from The Artist. Media heads across the TV spectrum, including Fox News Dennis Miller, dissect Brady's diminishing chances. Brady's wife (Katherine LaNasa) leaves him. Huggins runs a negative ad. Brady seduces Huggins' wife Mitzi (Sarah Baker) and records it. He fires his manager Mitch (Jason Sudeikis) who doesn't like the direction the campaign is taking. Brady's dirty decisions work; additionally, Mitzi leaves Marty. The Motch brothers inform Raymond that the sale of the 14th District to China went through. When Marty stands up to them, they throw him under the bus and send Tim to help out Brady. Mitzi helps her sulking husband reinvigorate his interest in winning. During a broadcast message, Huggins opens up and divulges all his secrets, inspiring people everywhere to do the same. But, Brady wins the election with help from voting machines owned by the Motch brothers. Huggins reveals all of the scars he received from playing on the jaggedy jungle gym as a kid, prompting Brady to open up his soul to North Carolina and hands the position to Huggins. Mitch reconciles with Brady. There's a cameo from John Goodman.

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Movie Spoiler HOPE SPRINGS (2012) starring Meryl Streep - after review

In Meryl Streep's latest film Hope Springs, she plays Kay, a middle-class wife and mother from the Baby Boom generation. But, just because it's a comedy-drama with no accent challenge, don't think for a second Streep is creating a character she has played before. Her mid-length strawberry blonde hausfrau (with a supplementary job) adopts a meek persona who doesn't rock anyone's boat until it might be too late. Her curmudgeonly accountant counterpart Arnold (Tommy Lee Jones), not one to express his feelings, enjoys golf and bitching about how everything costs too much. Her thirty-one years with him have grown stale, but, ever the optimist, her Kay will stop at anything to reinvigorate the marriage. Her last ditch effort involves dragging her husband way up to Great Hope Springs (the original title; funny how Hollywood chooses to drop and add certain words to titles) in the Pine Tree state of Maine (filmed in Connecticut).

What is most wonderful about this film is how well the two actors command your attention. Streep, ever the work-horse, is dependable and nuanced, though there were a few moments early on where she oddly didn't drum up the tears one might have expected from her character. While there are probably more than a few actors that may have outplayed Streep in this part and hit a home-run (quite unusual), the Hollywood matron is still transfixing to watch and brings with her what so few movie stars can these days: an audience. And Jones hits every crusty note of his Arnold's sour disposition. He's a likable grump with an underlining vulnerability. Together, the two actors play off each other magnificently and their chemistry is in spades. And, they work off of Vanessa Taylor's solid screenplay. Honest and revelatory, it treats its adult-skewed demographic like, well, adults. There are yucks to be had at our puritanical hangups about sex, but the resolutions often are very mature. Director David Frankel, who worked with Streep previously on The Devil Wears Prada, displays remarkable pacing and doesn't leave an ounce of fat. The two hours pretty much center squarely on the two leads, with name actors taking on essentially non-showy cameo (blink and you'll miss them) roles, including Elisabeth Shue (I can never get enough of her), Jean Smart, and Mimi Rogers. Steve Carell, as their therapist for a week, is unassuming and sober, as the job title dictates.

Movie Spoiler Summary
Kay (Meryl Streep) primps herself one night, only to be turned down by her unsuspecting husband Arnold (Tommy Lee Jones). Roll credits. The next morning, they wake up in their separate rooms (he has sleep apnea) and it's business as usual: breakfast, paper, off to work, etc. At the clothing store they work at, Kay talks about her problems to her friend Ellen (Jean Smart). For dinner, Kay and Arnold have their grown children over to celebrate their 31st anniversary (their gift to each other was a cable package). The next day, she visits a Barnes & Noble and reads a book by Dr. Feld (Steve Carell). At breakfast the next day, she shares a brochure of a retreat he holds up in Maine. Unsurprisingly, Arnold isn't too keen about the idea, but after a chat with his coworker Vince (Brett Rice) in the bathroom, he buys Kay some beach-themed earrings. She's unimpressed and he eats dinner alone. At the last minute, the next day, Arnold joins her on the flight up to Maine, which she purchased for the both of them from a cashed-out CD of hers. "I hope you're happy," he grumbles. Kay breaks a small smile and her eyes glow into the camera for a brief moment.

They shack up in the Econo Lodge in Great Hope Springs. At a cafe the next day, after Arnold moans about every last possible detail under God's green earth, waitress Cora (Becky Ann Baker) shoots the couple a side-eye and wishes them luck with Dr. Feld. They meet with him at 10:30 AM. The results of the introduction are dubious at best and he uses an oft-used metaphor of a nose's deviated septum to describe broken relationships.

On the second day, the couple provides Dr. Feld with some background. When the session begins to head in an unpleasant direction, Kay retreats to the local bar, where Karen (Elisabeth Shue) provides a sympathetic ear. Meanwhile, Arnold visits a local museum. That night, they embrace in bed per Dr. Feld's instructions. On the third day, they are all excited, because they slept the whole night together. Then, the subject turns to sex. Their next assignment is to touch each other intimately that night, but it doesn't go well. However, after they decide to go to sleep, Kay ends up masturbating. On the fourth day, they debrief with Dr. Feld. Arnold ends up storming out and wandering around town. Kay begins packing.

On the fifth day, they end up staying and attend session. Arnold begins expressing himself to Kay, who responds herself. "You never want me, you just want it." The start to get really honest with each other and Dr. Feld changes the subject to their most memorable sexual experience. For their assignment that night, Kay tries to give Arnold fellatio in a movie theatre during a French film. The scene is pretty hilarious, but Kay gets flustered and leaves.

On the sixth day, Dr. Feld speaks with each spouse separately. The question is posed to the inhibited Kay, "Is this person worth more to me than my pride?" He recommends she purchase the book, "Sex Tips for Straight Women From a Gay Man" and he instructs Arnold to step up. While Arnold tries to make a reservation at fancy booked restaurant and inn Captain Jacks, Kay shops for phallic-like grocery items to practice fellatio on. At the end of dinner, he surprises Kay, dressed all in lavender, with the room reservation. It's a quaint, but beautiful abode, with champagne, chocolate-covered strawberries, and a lit fireplace. He plays Al Green's "Let Stay Together" as things start to get romantic. During foreplay, he looks at her in the face and loses his erection. On the seventh day, Dr. Feld wraps things up.

They return home and settle back into their routine. At work, Kay offers to house-sit for Ellen to spend some time away from Arnold. She begins packing to Annie Lenox' "Why." They go to sleep in their separate rooms, but, then, later on, he pays her a visit and they make love. The next morning, he wakes up late and passionately kisses her good-bye. Outside, one of his fantasy women, Carol (Mimi Rogers), is across the street walking her Corgi's. The couple share a giggle and Kay informs him that a three-way is never happening between them. Roll end credits with Kay living out her fantasy of renewing her vows with Arnold on the beach, with the children, their spouses, and Dr. Feld in attendance.

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Broadway in Burbank Review

Bright Eyes Productions presented Broadway In Burbank last night at the Colony. I was actually running late getting into the Valley and Waze took me on a route I had never experienced before (using Outpost to get to Mullholland taking me down to Cahuenga).  Pretty nifty!  Despite the slow polks in front of me on the short-cut, I nabbed a princess parking spot right across from the theatre and arrived after 8:05 PM only to realize that no one was in any rush to get started. So, I immediately slowed down, got my bearings, and relaxed in the stadium-style 300-seat or so theatre. The air-conditioning was quite a lovely change from the 82-degree Burbank evening. Richard Kilroy directed the benefit concert, with musical accompaniment by Ron Snyder and Dave Bass. Greg Stickroth and Diane Pancel led this musical revue as two characters in a rather elaborate office setting self-referentially brainstorming ideas for a fundraiser. The premise is pretty light-weight and negligible. Singers appear from the wings and each present a pair of solos to document the progress, cobbling together an eclectic mix of songs. David Johnson first comes on to sing Funny Girl's "Dont Rain on My Parade"unannounced. Having a momentary lapse, the pianist fills his in-character request for the first couple of words to Pal Joey's "If I Could Write a Book," and he's off and running.  Pancel then gives a little Rodgers & Hart "Manhattan."

Second to take the stage is Helene McCardle, who conspicuously saunters in with her strawberry blonde asymmetrical cut to give her rendition of "Mack the Knife" in German. In English, she sang Jacques Brel's "Amsterdam," made popular by David Bowie. After McCardle, the towering Kathleen Ingle soaked up the spotlight to belt out the title song of Light in the Piazza. She cut loose with Chicago's "When You're Good to Mama," engaging in a few barely naughty thrusts and gestures to titillate the older-skewing crowd. Next was Larry Davis, whose jazzy "Get Me to the Church on Time" from My Fair Lady was almost as cool as the syncopated and elongated phrasing he offered on "Anything Goes." Jessica Buda then solemnly emerged with the somber "Millworker" from Working and soaks her heart into Pippin's "Kind of Woman." Before she exits, she engages in a duet with Stickroth from Follies. He plays a character who claims to lack singing talent, which he quickly disproves with "Too Many Mornings." Pat Whiteman whimsically whisks the audience away with "I'd Rather Be Sailing" from A New Brain and then sings a song about nerves and jitters, which I was unfamiliar with.

During intermission, some of the actors mingled with the audience members munching on plates of pretzels and cheese squares. I checked out the endless walls of photos from past productions dating all the way back to the 1970s. In Act II, Stickroth gets a little more comfortable and delightfully droll. His speaking voice is monotone and benefits from an off-handed tone. His character, as well as Pancel, are late for some appointment and they need money fast. Kurt Weill gets another shout out with "Speak Low" from Bill Hemmer, whose powerful vocals effortlessly segue into a spunky "Before the Parade Passes By" from Hello, Dolly! Pancel finally gets her moment to shine with an admirable crack at "Don't Cry For Me Argentina," from, of course, Evita. Stickroth fits in his own solo with the moving A Little Night Music's "Send in the Clowns." He joins Pancel in an electric "Music of the Night" from The Phantom of the Opera. The entire cast joins the duo to close out the show with A Chorus Line's "What I Did for Love."  Absent from the program was Ruby Lewis.

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Kristen Stewart, Not So Pure as the Driven Snow

It has been widely reported that the planned sequel to Snow White and the Hunstman has been shelved, and Universal will now develop a film based on "the Huntsman" (Chris Hemsworth), that would not include Kristen Stewart's Snow White.  Universal has denied this.  First of all, that the original movie didn't even earn back its budget domestically makes this whole production of Snow White, the Huntsman, or both, an unsound business decision. It's yet another reason why I don't understand Hollywood and never will. So while I can't comprehend its existence to begin with, with Stewart, who recently had an affair with the married director of the movie, having perhaps become "a liability" to the film's box-office potential: I get it. I don't like it if it becomes true, but it makes perfect sense. However, it draws attention to the source of the bad publicity she has received. Apparently, millions of people have eviscerated the single 22-year old actress (who was in a long-term relationship) for having an affair with a married man, while letting the betrothed guy walk. This too I get to a degree. Stewart: actress, in front of camera. Sanders: director, behind the camera, who, frankly, has no other feature-length credits to his career, and few people know about. (Yet, crazily enough, many people now know the name of his fresh-faced actress wife)  It's not like he shot up a room full of people, so no one is getting on him. So why Stewart? Well, she broke the heart of the beloved movie star who millions of teenage girls (and adults) adore. As well, she wasn't much liked to begin with--tolerated even--because he was in love with her and there was nothing they could do about it. I get it: teenage girls (and boys) can be misdirected in their thinking, as youth often dictates. They are so full of life and energy; not being fully-formed human beings can lead to a lot of bad choices and ill-picked words, with no guidance. But, while it is hard to decipher what demographic is up-in-arms in what proportion on this matter, it's pretty safe to say that the level of outrage suggests that it isn't just junior and high-schoolers adding weight to the anti-Stewart side.

When Brad Pitt left Jennifer Aniston for Angelina Jolie, he definitely let down soccer moms everywhere (or the Minivan Majority as Lainey says). However, there wasn't anywhere near the desire for him to be burned at the stake. In fact, in the six years since he validated the truth about the affair, he has starred in *FIVE* best picture nominees. He didn't even star in ONE pre-Mrs. & Mrs. Smith (though Oscar Revisionism would change all that). He was finally approaching the sweet spot of his career and nothing was going to get in his way, not even an act of infidelity. When the single Russell Crowe engaged in sexual shenanigans with married Meg Ryan (hat-tip to Lainey for the reminder), he was at the beginning of his three consecutive Oscar nominations (the middle of which he won). But, for Ryan, it was all down hill from there. She had a brief spike with the lackluster, but notable box-office showing Kate & Leopold (starring Hugh Jackman, in one of his earlier lead roles), but her career proper was done. Now, that could have been because of a number of reasons. Proof of Life was a flop, she was approaching Hollywood's "Kiss of Death" (for women) age of 40, and it's quite possible that she wanted to take her career in a different direction. However, at the very least, it appears she didn't have a choice.

If Stewart gets no award recognition for On the Road and Lie Down in Darkness gets made without her, then, something indeed is rotten (sad, and pathetic) in the state of Denmark.  But, for the time being, it's all very sound and fury.  Whatever the case, I noted a change in her demeanor a few months back.  She exuded a relaxed and mature confidence that she appeared to be enjoying (some have speculated she had a breast augmentation).  And she strikes me as one of those actresses with enough raw talent (albeit minimal) that, with the right choices, could blossom into something much more developed.  She's also so young, that her age bestows her with a built-in resilience.  At the very least, this whole scandal has made her usually self-absorbed, entitled, boring presence just a tad more interesting.  How Stewart will fare in all this remains to be seen.  If anything, I'm on Team-Kristen-Distance-Yourself-From-Twilight-As-Soon-As-You-Can.  Looks like she has already gotten a head-start.  

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Trailer: Cloud Atlas

"I'm just trying to understand why we keep making the same mistakes over and over."  Ain't that the truth.  This film looks like a hot mess, but I'm intrigued for now.

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Movie Spoiler Summary: Intruders (Intrusos)

Juan Carlos Fresnadillo’s Intruders, based on an original screenplay by Nicolás Casareigo and Jaime Marques, stars Clive Owen as a father, John, who must save his daughter from the boogeyman, known as Hollowface. The creepy intruder also haunts the lives of another young child and parent. Yet, no one else can see this apparition, which calls into question the sanity of those who can. There is a twist, that might be picked up early on by the more astute, but hardly makes the payoff worth it. The film itself is more of an exercise in tension, which it has in spades, with some haunting special effects thrown in where parts or the entire face of people are wiped out of existence. And cinematographer Enrique Chediak’s (127 Hours, 28 Weeks Later) composition is just plain sick, easily the best thing about the film.

Movie Spoiler Summary
With rain pounding the windows, a Madridian (?) mother Luisa (Pilar López de Ayala) tucks son Juan (Izán Corchero) into bed after exchanging scary stories. He has a nightmare that might as well have been directed by Guillermo del Toro about a faceless monster. John Farrow (Clive Owen) works on a high-rise in London, while his family relaxes in the country. His daughter Mia (Ella Purnell) finds an unfinished story written on a piece of paper hidden inside of a tree, but loses her bracelet in the process. She reads the story about a faceless man to a captivated audience in school. For her birthday, her parents give her an antique teddy bear and a new electronic device. The spoiled bitch isn’t interested much in the former. Mia works on the story before walking in on her nude mother Susanna (Carice van Houten) who is sneaking a puff on a fag.

Back in Madrid, the rain is still pounding and something’s not right, so, naturally, they go to church, but she cuts her confession with Father Antonio (Daniel Brühl) short. While working on the high-rise, a genius unclips himself to reach a bolt and slips from the rafter. John saves him and later has a nightmare about it imagining the worker as faceless. Young Mia has a nightmare where she is faceless. Her father consoles her and teaches her the ways of overcoming her fears by burning an effigy of the faceless monster. Susanna literally rains on their parade with a garden hose.

Returning to rainy Madrid, the faceless monster can’t get enough out of teasing the boy. The next day, the mother summons the father ala The Exorcist. At the Farrow residence, Hollowface, as Juan has dubbed him, makes a cross-continental appearance and attacks father and daughter. John involves the authorities. It seems the creepy intruder has robbed Mia of her ability to speak.

The story shifts back to Madrid, where the boy cries caca-stained tears as Hollowface returns. The rain lets up (finally), after his mother comes to the rescue. Another day, another priest (Héctor Alterio). He tells his clerical counterpart that mother and son are both nut-jobs. In London, the speechless Mia visits a specialist (Kerry Fox). While the parents meet with the psychiatrist, John observes Mia writing her story. The Farrows have their house secured and alarmed.

In Madrid, the worried Luisa removes Juan from the playground as Father Antonio approaches. Mia continues writing her story. Despite the security in their posh home, Hollowface attacks the Londoners, sending Mia into anaphylactic shock.

Juan visits Father Antonio. Hollowface returns, but the Father can’t see him. The psychiatrist diagnoses John and Mia with Folie à deux, a hallucinatory disorder shared by two people with close emotional ties. Hollowface is no where to be seen on the surveillance tapes and social services is contacted. Mia reveals to the psychiatrist that she thinks her dad is bonkers and turns on him.

Father Antonio visits Luisa. The rain starts up again that night and Luisa presumably shacks up with the priest. The monster tries to attack the boy, but fails to, as he has just “completed” his story. He runs outside to hide it in the tree Mia will locate years later, which means Luisa and Juan were living somewhere outside of London. There is intercutting of the boy and John both climbing the same tree, but, as it turns out, thirty some odd years apart. In a surreal moment, Clive Owen enters the home of the now much aged Luisa and begins speaking Spanish to her. It turns out, he’s the aged “Juan.” Juan = John! Duh. I was stupid for not figuring it out earlier. He calls her on her shit about Hollowface being made up and passing on her hallucinations to him, which he inadvertently bestowed upon his daughter. Meanwhile, Mia is in deep-shit England, and Hollowface surrounds her Freddy Krueger style. John Juan tries to save his daughter by talking her out of the dream; interspersed in the sequence is John facing his youth. The mission is a success and Hollowface disperses into the ether. The End.

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Best Actress 2012: August Prediction

You'll have to excuse my fickle nature this year with my predictions.  I've been pretty much all over the map.  It's not that I'm afraid of commitment; it's just that I have trouble sticking to one logic.  I wasn't planning an August prediction, but I needed to do a little house-cleaning.  While its success has been modest, Beasts of the Southern Wild is hitting a lot of pundit's short lists, and out of the Sundance submissions, Quvenzhané Wallis bodes the best chances of getting nominated.  Whale Rider set the precedent here.  Frankly, she seems to be the only sure thing at this point, though I highly doubt her chances of winning.  Optimism has cooled for Keira Knightley's Anna Karenina, but, I'm stubborn, so I'm keeping her in for now.  Making her debut way up high on my list is Rachel McAdams for the newly titled To the Wonder.  Director Terrence Malick doesn't get actors nominated, but considering his suddenly abnormally prolific profile later in life, there is a first time for everything.  McAdams is on her comeback.  With already one hit this year (The Vow), and the anticipated Brian DePalma thriller Passion (which may end up being a joyously big fat mess), McAdams has a buzz about her right now.  And she headlines the most prominent movie this year that will show at both Toronto and Venice.  It seems that she'll eventually get nominated, if she's here to say.  Who knows.  This might be a make or break year for her.  But, her talent amounts to more than Meg Ryan, right?  She matches Sandra Bullock on every level, at the very least, right?  So I'm moving all my chips from one side of the table with Lawrence in The Hunger Games all the way over to McAdams.  Two months from now, I just may be dropping her like a hot potato.

How about the rest?  As far as other Sundance competitors, who knows what is going on with Smashed, so the jury is out on Mary Elizabeth Winstead's chances.  I'm not sold yet on Helen Hunt like most everyone else.  However, her reviews were stellar.  Perhaps it's the ill will I harbor towards the TV actress for winning an Oscar which prevents me from seeing her get nominated ever again.  It's smartest not to allow emotions to rule one's instincts in these prognosticating matters.  Yet, I'm left wondering if my gut is actually in the right place and my prejudices are confusing its authenticity.

Being a former Best Actress winner, Hunt contributes to the conundrum of which of Oscar's victorious leading ladies will make it in this year.  History dictates that there is generally one every year.  It's not unheard of for there to be two.  Three?  I crunched the numbers a few months ago, and I forget if I came up with an example or not (a quick glance reveals 1967, 1973, 1978 serve as the most recent examples, with every winner being a former winner).  Anyway, Streep is always up for consideration, taking in her seventeen nominations as evidence.  The reviews have been quite favorable and the box-office take is off to a decent start.  The only problem is the lighter fare of Hope Springs in contrast to her often baitier roles. Not only that, but the bitch just won and it's likely she's going to be nominated next year as Violet Weston in August: Osage County.  Considering she continues to set an unreachable record with each new nomination, do you think the AMPAS might be more judicious about showering her with nods in the future?

There is also Maggie Smith in Quartet and Marion Cotillard in Rust & Bone, both films of which have telling Fall release distribution.  However, considering how Cotillard has become more of supporting presence in mainstream fare, I'm left wondering how anxious the AMPAS will be to reward the relatively recent Oscar winner when the Frenchwoman isn't exactly a household name. With Smith, it has been over ten years since her last nomination, and almost forty years since her last leading nod.  In the last year, she has capped off her prominent role in the Harry Potter franchise, starred in the arthouse hit The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, and is a favorite of the hit TV show Downtown Abbey.  Her chances for Quartet seem almost inevitable as far as the sight unseen possibilities.  The question, like with a lot of ladies this year, is: which category?  Did you know that Exotic grossed $45M in the U.S.?  We know The Academy loves on Judi Dench.  While the movie was an ensemble, they could very easily pluck her out as the lead and plug her into the Best Actress raise as a slot-filler in such an uncompetitive year, no?

As far as other unknowables, Naomi Watts in The Impossible has a compelling teaser trailer going for her.  She doesn't strike me as the multiple-nominee type and the true disaster story looks to be marketed partly as a thriller, but her Toronto International Film Festival submission seems to make the race more interesting.  Elizabeth Olsen has a holiday release date with Therese Raquin, as well as heat behind her from last year.  Amour also has a holiday release date and if audiences take to Emmanuelle Riva, she will make a compelling case for recognition.

As I've alluded, I gave up on Lawrence for The Hunger Games.  It sounded brilliant at the time, but Games, though more convincing as serious fare than Twilight, essentially falls into the Harry Potter camp at best, as far as its chances go.  If they're going to nominate Lawrence, it would be for The Silver Linings Playbook, provided it is a hit and shows off her comedic and dramatic chops in an unusual way.  I also had to let go of Maggie Gyllenhaal in Won't Back Down.  It's not like she's America's Sweetheart who done good ala Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side.  And that movie has no chance at reaching anywhere near its grosses.  It's about the school systems and the teacher's union for Christ's sake!  Her costar Viola Davis probably stands a better chance, as she fell short of winning this past year.  Keeping Gyllenhaal up in the Top Five would just be a matter of me wanting to have bragging rights to something that probably ain't going to happen.

Laura Linney continues to be a popular favorite as a guess in a very uncertain year.  As well, she should.  The AMPAS will nominate her given the opportunity.  She should probably be higher up on this list for a film that is going to Toronto with a preset December release.  Also going to Toronto is Imogene.  Kristen Wiig will eventually get nominated for an Oscar, I imagine.  She's just too versatile and talented not to.  We'll have to wait and see just how early it will be in her new status as one of Hollywood's leading ladies.

What I find most exciting is the possibility that there is one name missing from this LONG list who everyone has overlooked, like Bullock, Ellen Page, etc, in previous years.  With no clear front-runner in sight (or even close), doesn't it just feel like there is someone out there who no one has figured on at this point?  I SO hope so.  A little surprise goes a long way.

Best Actress 2012 - August Predictions
1. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
2. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
3. Maggie Smith, Quartet
4. Rachel McAdams, To the Wonder
5. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

6. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
7. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
8. Laura Linney, Hyde Park on the Hudson
9. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
10. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

11. Jennifer Lawrence, The Hunger Games
12. Viola Davis, Won't Back Down
13. Maggie Gyllenhaal, Won't Back Down
14. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
15. Amy Adams, Trouble with the Curve

16. Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook
17. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
18. Elizabeth Olsen, Therese Raquin
19. Kristen Wiig, Imogene
20. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables

21. Bernadette Peters, Coming Up Roses
22. Zoe Kazan, Ruby Sparks
23. Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
24. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
25. Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip


26. Julianne Moore, The English Teacher
27. Leslie Mann, This Is Forty
28. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
29. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
30. Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace

31. Gwyneth Paltrow, Thanks for Sharing
32. Melissa Leo, Francine
33. Rachel Wanza, War Witch
34. Naomi Watts, Sunlight Jr.
35. Holly Hunter, Jackie

36. Penélope Cruz, Venuto al mondo (Twice Born)
37. Dakota Fanning, Effie
38. Marion Cotillard, Low Life

Golden Globe (Comedy/Musical)
1. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
2. Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip
3. Julianne Moore, The English Teacher
4. Leslie Mann, This Is Forty
5. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables 

6. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
7. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
8. Kristen Wiig, Imogene
9. Blake Lively, Savages
10. Julianne Hough, Rock of Ages

11. Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook
12. Julia Roberts, Mirror, Mirror
13. Jordin Sparks, Sparkle
14. Diane Keaton, The Big Wedding
15. Victoria Justice, Fun Size

16. Anna Kendrick, Pitch Perfect
17. Shirley MacLaine, Bernie
18. Jennifer Garner, Butter
19. Mila Kunis, Ted
20. Zoe Kazan, Ruby Sparks

21. Rashida Jones, Celeste and Jesse Forever
22. Melanie Lynskey, Hello, I Must Be Going
23. Rebecca Hall, Lay the Favorite


Best Supporting Actress
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables 
2. Kristen Stewart, On the Road 
3. Helena Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
4. Samantha Barks, Les Misérables 
5. Amy Adams, The Master

6. Pauline Collins, Quartet
7. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
8. Annette Bening, Imogene 
9. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
10. Sally Field, Lincoln

11. Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson 
12. Vanessa Redgrave, Song for Marion 
13. Viola Davis, Won't Back Down
14. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
15. Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis 

16. Tabu, The Life of Pi 
17. Kerry Washington, Django Unchained 
18. Laura Linney, Hyde Park on the Hudson
19. Jessica Chastain, Lawless 
20. Laura Dern, The Master

21. Kelly Reilly, Flight
22. Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook
23. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
24. Maggie Smith, Quartet
25. Olga Kurylenko, To the Wonder

26. Emma Stone, The Gangster Squad 
27. Kelly MacDonald, Anna Karenina
28. Jacki Weaver, The Silver Linings Playbook
29. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
30. Olivia Colman, Hyde Park on Hudson

31. Jessica Lange, Therese Raquin
32. Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower 
33. Rose Byrne, The Place Beyond the Pines
34. Cody Horn, Magic Mike
35. Amanda Seyfried, Les Misérables 

36. Kristin Scott Thomas, Only God Forgives 
37. Holly Hunter, Jackie
38. Alicia Vikander, Anna Karenina 
39. Olivia Williams, Anna Karenina 
40. Mia Wasikowska, Lawless 

41. Emma Thompson, Effie 
42. Reese Witherspoon, Mud 
43. Julianne Moore, What Maise Knew 
44. Helen Sjoholm, Simon and the Oaks 
45. Emily Blunt, Looper
46. Olivia Thirlby, Nobody Walks 

June Prediction 
April Prediction
February Prediction

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What the World Needs Now Is, Van, Sweet, Damme

Thanks to Lainey's appreciation of Jean Claude Van Damme's "kung-fucking" and red carpet antics for the upcoming The Expendables 2  He has given some awfully good world premiere pappage.  While, he's a bit of joke, I can't help but smile at how much he is enjoying the royal treatment while being somewhat relevant for this moment.  If only more stars took themselves less seriously and gave fans shit they want to see.  Hollywood, are you listening?  *THIS* is what I'm talking about.  More please.

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Opening This Weekend: Great Hope for Springs

Jones knows that playing against Streep is a bad idea

I took an extended break from posting for a variety of reasons, but I thought I would dip my toe back into the blogging waters to see what the temperature is like.  Are you familiar with the game Hollywood Stock Exchange?  It started around fifteen years ago.  I throw that number out there, because I remember joining before My Best Friend's Wedding opened and it was pretty new at the time.  I put all of my free-starter HSX bucks into that movie (or most of them), because Roberts was returning to her bread and butter and ready to be a star again; very few people saw the green that was to come.  I think part of my motivation was wishful thinking.  I lost interest in the game probably before summer ended, the correct prediction of Wedding's success being my crowning jewel.  I also played from work, because I didn't have internet at the time, nor would have internet (and a computer) for, like, four (?) more years.  Yikes.

I was feeling nostalgic today, so I checked in and joined again.  I received $2M starter bucks and quickly soaked them in various films that were opening over the next year.  I don't understand all the numbers, especially the asking prices.  I did my best to determine what films which I foresaw as doing well were likely being undervalued.  As far as this weekend is concerned, I bought up a lot of shares of Hope Springs and The Campaign.  I didn't imagine Springs ever doing that well, until I saw its RT score of 78% (well, it was in the low 80%'s when I checked in yesterday or the day before).  Considering that it struck me as a film that would be hitting somewhere between 45 - 60%, I was impressed by my underestimation of the new Streep vehicle.  This isn't to say it's a done deal.  Her role isn't encumbered by affectations like her Julia Child and Margaret Thatcher, and considering her recent Oscar win, where she even acknowledged audiences being tired of her, I originally surmised that audiences may want to take a break from Streep.  Not having read any reviews, but having caught a whiff of several references to the movie being "for anyone of any age, single or in a relationship," perhaps the audience potential is pretty broad.  And considering the contemporary nature of Springs, as well as its high-grossing precursor It's Complicated, I decided to throw a great deal of my HSX bucks at this film.  It's only opening on about 2,200 screens, so I imagine an opening somewhere between $18 - 22M.  Of course, I would love for it to bust that range and go beyond (which it probably may do), but I'm only thinking realistically right now.  But, if I was feeling really audacious, I would say more like the high $20M's.  Also of note: I adamantly believed all along Streep was a non-start for Best Actress this year.  I was wrong.  I had no idea this was going to be such a weak year that the last winner, with seventeen nominations under her belt, would be a candidate in a non-baity role, but she is.  And, were it not for her Violet Weston from August: Osage County in 2013, I would even say the dearth of competition makes her the front-runner.

The movie theater trailer for The Campaign before Ted had me in stitches.  On the surface, it's a dumb Hollywood comedy.  I've never been a fan of Will Ferrell, yet, in the last year, he has begun to grow on me.  Delightfully surprisingly, it's RT score is currently just under Springs' at 76%.  A wide release from Ferrell or his costar Zach Galifianakis doesn't have to receive above average reviews in order to be a success; quite the contrary.  But, I'm hoping that audiences will respond to its implied (and hopefully genuine) quality.  Look for a movie spoiler summary.  On around 3,250 screens, a safe box-office prediction would be low-to-mid $30M.

However, the weight of the numbers on Friday rides on The Bourne Legacy.  I've only seen the first one.  However, the original trilogy boasts not only increased profitability, but critical response--quite unusual for sequels.  The latest Bourne film, which now stars Jeremy Renner instead of Matt Damon (fitting considering that original author Robert Ludlum actually penned only the first three novels), started its RT score in the low 40's is now knocking on the 60-percentile's door.  It still falls outside of the first three film's high grades.  Its MC score is actually slightly higher at 63 (and above The Campaign, and just under Springs).  Like the Spider-Man franchise, it has been five years since the last film.  Some argue, it was too soon.  More importantly, many argued a new origins story was unnecessary, as it tried to distance itself from the third entry.  With Bourne, however, there was nothing but excessive good will with its 2007 movie.  Is there a demand to continue the ascension?  I doubt it.  The last film opened to almost $70M (the highest August opening ever), an incredible stat that doesn't seem possible this summer.  I wouldn't be surprised by a $25 - 30M opening, either, but it sounds obscenely pessimistic.  Obviously, the expectation is much higher.  Does Renner have the drawing power to match it?  After hitching his star to Mission: Impossible and The Avengers, this is his commercial litmus test.  I would say $50 - 55M would be the high end possibility.  The reality is probably between $30 - 50M, which is a wide window, I realize.  There are just so many variables here, which make its chances hard to pin down.  My instincts say "stay low," so something in the $30M's, for sure.  I want to say The Campaign will beat it, but I just can't go there, yet.  Yet, if you look at social media like Facebook, both The Campaign and Hope Springs have been courting a healthy base of fans.  The Bourne Legacy?  Nothing.

Also opening is this movie called Nitro Circus The Movie 3D, which appears to be another Jack-Ass movie, with the worst of all possible reviews.  It opens on around 800 screens.  Considering I'm imagining all the opening dollars (and then some) going to the aforementioned films, $4M is all I'm predicting for this, although the grassroots-like push may launch it much higher.

Of course, all of my estimates are totally off, because, being the second full weekend of August, the potential for big opening numbers is meager.  It's probably wiser to err on the low-end and imagine that if the audience is there, the second and third weekend drops for the well-reviewed films will be low.

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