Best Actress 2012: August Prediction

You'll have to excuse my fickle nature this year with my predictions.  I've been pretty much all over the map.  It's not that I'm afraid of commitment; it's just that I have trouble sticking to one logic.  I wasn't planning an August prediction, but I needed to do a little house-cleaning.  While its success has been modest, Beasts of the Southern Wild is hitting a lot of pundit's short lists, and out of the Sundance submissions, Quvenzhané Wallis bodes the best chances of getting nominated.  Whale Rider set the precedent here.  Frankly, she seems to be the only sure thing at this point, though I highly doubt her chances of winning.  Optimism has cooled for Keira Knightley's Anna Karenina, but, I'm stubborn, so I'm keeping her in for now.  Making her debut way up high on my list is Rachel McAdams for the newly titled To the Wonder.  Director Terrence Malick doesn't get actors nominated, but considering his suddenly abnormally prolific profile later in life, there is a first time for everything.  McAdams is on her comeback.  With already one hit this year (The Vow), and the anticipated Brian DePalma thriller Passion (which may end up being a joyously big fat mess), McAdams has a buzz about her right now.  And she headlines the most prominent movie this year that will show at both Toronto and Venice.  It seems that she'll eventually get nominated, if she's here to say.  Who knows.  This might be a make or break year for her.  But, her talent amounts to more than Meg Ryan, right?  She matches Sandra Bullock on every level, at the very least, right?  So I'm moving all my chips from one side of the table with Lawrence in The Hunger Games all the way over to McAdams.  Two months from now, I just may be dropping her like a hot potato.

How about the rest?  As far as other Sundance competitors, who knows what is going on with Smashed, so the jury is out on Mary Elizabeth Winstead's chances.  I'm not sold yet on Helen Hunt like most everyone else.  However, her reviews were stellar.  Perhaps it's the ill will I harbor towards the TV actress for winning an Oscar which prevents me from seeing her get nominated ever again.  It's smartest not to allow emotions to rule one's instincts in these prognosticating matters.  Yet, I'm left wondering if my gut is actually in the right place and my prejudices are confusing its authenticity.

Being a former Best Actress winner, Hunt contributes to the conundrum of which of Oscar's victorious leading ladies will make it in this year.  History dictates that there is generally one every year.  It's not unheard of for there to be two.  Three?  I crunched the numbers a few months ago, and I forget if I came up with an example or not (a quick glance reveals 1967, 1973, 1978 serve as the most recent examples, with every winner being a former winner).  Anyway, Streep is always up for consideration, taking in her seventeen nominations as evidence.  The reviews have been quite favorable and the box-office take is off to a decent start.  The only problem is the lighter fare of Hope Springs in contrast to her often baitier roles. Not only that, but the bitch just won and it's likely she's going to be nominated next year as Violet Weston in August: Osage County.  Considering she continues to set an unreachable record with each new nomination, do you think the AMPAS might be more judicious about showering her with nods in the future?

There is also Maggie Smith in Quartet and Marion Cotillard in Rust & Bone, both films of which have telling Fall release distribution.  However, considering how Cotillard has become more of supporting presence in mainstream fare, I'm left wondering how anxious the AMPAS will be to reward the relatively recent Oscar winner when the Frenchwoman isn't exactly a household name. With Smith, it has been over ten years since her last nomination, and almost forty years since her last leading nod.  In the last year, she has capped off her prominent role in the Harry Potter franchise, starred in the arthouse hit The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, and is a favorite of the hit TV show Downtown Abbey.  Her chances for Quartet seem almost inevitable as far as the sight unseen possibilities.  The question, like with a lot of ladies this year, is: which category?  Did you know that Exotic grossed $45M in the U.S.?  We know The Academy loves on Judi Dench.  While the movie was an ensemble, they could very easily pluck her out as the lead and plug her into the Best Actress raise as a slot-filler in such an uncompetitive year, no?

As far as other unknowables, Naomi Watts in The Impossible has a compelling teaser trailer going for her.  She doesn't strike me as the multiple-nominee type and the true disaster story looks to be marketed partly as a thriller, but her Toronto International Film Festival submission seems to make the race more interesting.  Elizabeth Olsen has a holiday release date with Therese Raquin, as well as heat behind her from last year.  Amour also has a holiday release date and if audiences take to Emmanuelle Riva, she will make a compelling case for recognition.

As I've alluded, I gave up on Lawrence for The Hunger Games.  It sounded brilliant at the time, but Games, though more convincing as serious fare than Twilight, essentially falls into the Harry Potter camp at best, as far as its chances go.  If they're going to nominate Lawrence, it would be for The Silver Linings Playbook, provided it is a hit and shows off her comedic and dramatic chops in an unusual way.  I also had to let go of Maggie Gyllenhaal in Won't Back Down.  It's not like she's America's Sweetheart who done good ala Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side.  And that movie has no chance at reaching anywhere near its grosses.  It's about the school systems and the teacher's union for Christ's sake!  Her costar Viola Davis probably stands a better chance, as she fell short of winning this past year.  Keeping Gyllenhaal up in the Top Five would just be a matter of me wanting to have bragging rights to something that probably ain't going to happen.

Laura Linney continues to be a popular favorite as a guess in a very uncertain year.  As well, she should.  The AMPAS will nominate her given the opportunity.  She should probably be higher up on this list for a film that is going to Toronto with a preset December release.  Also going to Toronto is Imogene.  Kristen Wiig will eventually get nominated for an Oscar, I imagine.  She's just too versatile and talented not to.  We'll have to wait and see just how early it will be in her new status as one of Hollywood's leading ladies.

What I find most exciting is the possibility that there is one name missing from this LONG list who everyone has overlooked, like Bullock, Ellen Page, etc, in previous years.  With no clear front-runner in sight (or even close), doesn't it just feel like there is someone out there who no one has figured on at this point?  I SO hope so.  A little surprise goes a long way.

Best Actress 2012 - August Predictions
1. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
2. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
3. Maggie Smith, Quartet
4. Rachel McAdams, To the Wonder
5. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

6. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
7. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
8. Laura Linney, Hyde Park on the Hudson
9. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
10. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

11. Jennifer Lawrence, The Hunger Games
12. Viola Davis, Won't Back Down
13. Maggie Gyllenhaal, Won't Back Down
14. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
15. Amy Adams, Trouble with the Curve

16. Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook
17. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
18. Elizabeth Olsen, Therese Raquin
19. Kristen Wiig, Imogene
20. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables

21. Bernadette Peters, Coming Up Roses
22. Zoe Kazan, Ruby Sparks
23. Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
24. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
25. Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip


26. Julianne Moore, The English Teacher
27. Leslie Mann, This Is Forty
28. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
29. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
30. Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace

31. Gwyneth Paltrow, Thanks for Sharing
32. Melissa Leo, Francine
33. Rachel Wanza, War Witch
34. Naomi Watts, Sunlight Jr.
35. Holly Hunter, Jackie

36. Penélope Cruz, Venuto al mondo (Twice Born)
37. Dakota Fanning, Effie
38. Marion Cotillard, Low Life

Golden Globe (Comedy/Musical)
1. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
2. Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip
3. Julianne Moore, The English Teacher
4. Leslie Mann, This Is Forty
5. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables 

6. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
7. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
8. Kristen Wiig, Imogene
9. Blake Lively, Savages
10. Julianne Hough, Rock of Ages

11. Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook
12. Julia Roberts, Mirror, Mirror
13. Jordin Sparks, Sparkle
14. Diane Keaton, The Big Wedding
15. Victoria Justice, Fun Size

16. Anna Kendrick, Pitch Perfect
17. Shirley MacLaine, Bernie
18. Jennifer Garner, Butter
19. Mila Kunis, Ted
20. Zoe Kazan, Ruby Sparks

21. Rashida Jones, Celeste and Jesse Forever
22. Melanie Lynskey, Hello, I Must Be Going
23. Rebecca Hall, Lay the Favorite


Best Supporting Actress
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables 
2. Kristen Stewart, On the Road 
3. Helena Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
4. Samantha Barks, Les Misérables 
5. Amy Adams, The Master

6. Pauline Collins, Quartet
7. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
8. Annette Bening, Imogene 
9. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
10. Sally Field, Lincoln

11. Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson 
12. Vanessa Redgrave, Song for Marion 
13. Viola Davis, Won't Back Down
14. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
15. Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis 

16. Tabu, The Life of Pi 
17. Kerry Washington, Django Unchained 
18. Laura Linney, Hyde Park on the Hudson
19. Jessica Chastain, Lawless 
20. Laura Dern, The Master

21. Kelly Reilly, Flight
22. Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook
23. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
24. Maggie Smith, Quartet
25. Olga Kurylenko, To the Wonder

26. Emma Stone, The Gangster Squad 
27. Kelly MacDonald, Anna Karenina
28. Jacki Weaver, The Silver Linings Playbook
29. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
30. Olivia Colman, Hyde Park on Hudson

31. Jessica Lange, Therese Raquin
32. Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower 
33. Rose Byrne, The Place Beyond the Pines
34. Cody Horn, Magic Mike
35. Amanda Seyfried, Les Misérables 

36. Kristin Scott Thomas, Only God Forgives 
37. Holly Hunter, Jackie
38. Alicia Vikander, Anna Karenina 
39. Olivia Williams, Anna Karenina 
40. Mia Wasikowska, Lawless 

41. Emma Thompson, Effie 
42. Reese Witherspoon, Mud 
43. Julianne Moore, What Maise Knew 
44. Helen Sjoholm, Simon and the Oaks 
45. Emily Blunt, Looper
46. Olivia Thirlby, Nobody Walks 

June Prediction 
April Prediction
February Prediction