Surprisingly, only seven out of the nineteen+1 prognosticators has Moonrise Kingdom (ninth in mentions) on their list (Matt Atchity, Tariq Khan, Tom O'Neil, Kevin Polowy, Sasha Stone, Peter Travers, Chuck Wolton). [For whatever it's worth, the list of nineteen +1 is so WHITE and MALE, I've noticed] One of the few contenders that has been released into the mainstream, the $16M production has grossed three times its budget. Its current 94% RT is extremely high and it's director Wes Anderon's most accessible movie to date (think Fargo), telling the heartwarming tale of first love. It's a harmless, poignant story without being cloying. My guess is that the AMPAS will eat it up like catnip.
Sundance favorite Beasts of the Southern Wild (fifth in mentions) has grossed almost $11M and delves into the story about an impoverished class of people barely surviving above water in a remote part of Louisiana's Terrebonne Parish. For me, the success Winter's Bone had with the Oscars is indicator enough that Benh Zeitlin's film will be a player come nomination day. Most of the prognosticators have it on their list, generally towards the bottom, with the exception of Karger and Wolton.
With the grand introduction of Steven Spielberg's recent unveiling of his controversial (?) Lincoln trailer, everyone has it on their list around the middle to the very top. The majority of them are confident in Kathryn Bigelow's followup up to her Oscar-winning The Hurt Locker. The only predictors leaving Zero Dark Thirty (seventh in mentions) off are Atchity, Tariq Khan, Guy Lodge, Rogers, and Travers. It's not like she has a long history with the Academy, so I'm tempted to err on the side of the skeptics, especially considering there are a good chunk who believe Locker was "over-recognized." So, if anything, instead of residual love, I wonder if there isn't some resentment, perhaps? Probably a hallow theory. Perhaps, this will be the time for the AMPAS to double-down. Lodge is the only prognosticator who is calling Les Miserables (fourth in mentions) missing a BP nomination.
Life of Pi (eighth in mentions) managed to cross the 50% mark on consensus (Edward Douglas, Scott Feinberg, Horgan, Karger, Khan, Polowy, Steve Pond, Rogers, Paul Sheehan, Walton, Susan Wloszczyna). I'm sure that Ang Lee has a lot to do with it. Not only has he directed three best picture nominees, they have all been in a variety of genres and time-settings. Pi sounds like a gamble that may or may not pay off. But, I get it more than Dark Thirty.
Other mentions:
The Dark Knight Rises (tied for tenth in mentions): Horgan, O'Neil, Sheehan, Simanton, Stone, Travers
Django Unchained: Feinberg, Khan, Pond, Alex Suskind, Travers, Walton
Flight: Atchity, Douglas, Polowy, Rogers, Stone, Walton (huh?)
Anna Karenina: Adams, Khan, Christopher Rosen, Suskind, Susan Wloszczyna
Amour: Lodge, Rosen, Wloszczyna (I don't see it happening)
The Hobbit: O'Neil, Rosen, Sheehan (this one I will emphatically say will not happen)
The Impossible: Douglas, Simanton, Suskin (doesn't look likely, but not sure why)
Promised Land (new Gus Van Sant film starring Matt Damon Frances McDormand sight unseen releasing wide(r) in January after nominations): Feinberg, Horgan, Pond (too political?)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel: Atchity, Travers (has an outside shot)
End of Watch: Atchity, Simanton (possible dark horse, wait for weekend gross)
The Sessions: Adams, Karger (I'd err on side of 'no')
Hyde Park on Hudson: Adams, Rogers (what are they smoking?)
Rust and Bone: Horgan (doubtful)
Cloud Atlas: Nathaniel Rogers
My Predictions
Picture
1. Argo
2. The Silver Linings Playbook
3. The Master
4. Moonrise Kingdom
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild
6. Lincoln
7. End of Watch
8. Les Miserables
9. Life of Pi
10. Django Unchained
I'm really only confident in the first six choices.
The Hobbit: O'Neil, Rosen, Sheehan (this one I will emphatically say will not happen)
The Impossible: Douglas, Simanton, Suskin (doesn't look likely, but not sure why)
Promised Land (new Gus Van Sant film starring Matt Damon Frances McDormand sight unseen releasing wide(r) in January after nominations): Feinberg, Horgan, Pond (too political?)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel: Atchity, Travers (has an outside shot)
End of Watch: Atchity, Simanton (possible dark horse, wait for weekend gross)
The Sessions: Adams, Karger (I'd err on side of 'no')
Hyde Park on Hudson: Adams, Rogers (what are they smoking?)
Rust and Bone: Horgan (doubtful)
Cloud Atlas: Nathaniel Rogers
My Predictions
Picture
1. Argo
2. The Silver Linings Playbook
3. The Master
4. Moonrise Kingdom
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild
6. Lincoln
7. End of Watch
8. Les Miserables
9. Life of Pi
10. Django Unchained
I'm really only confident in the first six choices.
Actor
1. Joaquin Phoenix
2. Daniel Day-Lewis
3. John Hawkes
4. Denzel Washington (I'm not a fan, but it has been ten years since he has been nominated and/or won, and there is clamoring for recognizing him this year)
5. Ben Affleck (Are we talking about Braveheart or Dances with Wolves for this hyphenate?)
Don't rule out: Jean-Louis Triginant (my pick for dark horse), Jake Gyllenhaal, Bill Murray (playing FDR in lackluster film), Hugh Jackman (is it me or does he seem like he'll never get nominated), Philip Seymour Hoffman (depending on which category his performance will be received in, and considering the competition is so less stiff in supporting ... ), Bradley Cooper (I have a hard time adjusting to Cooper as an Oscar nominee), Richard Gere (who has put in more years than Cooper), Tommy Lee Jones (great reviews), Clint Eastwood (he's been nominated for actor more times than he has deserved, but, if Trouble makes curves at the box-office, he may get attention, as he was overlooked in Gran Torino), Tom Holland (if they decide to go the kid route). The race for Best Actor this year is the most competitive. You have a list of possibilities who all hail from potential Best Picture fodder and/or the best reviews of their career. Seems like it could be between Phoenix and Day-Lewis, with a heavy edge to Phoenix and his "return" from "retirement." Talk about a quick comeback. I was convinced a few months ago this was going to be a supporting performance that wouldn't get that much attention.
Actress
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver (my how quickly things change)
2. Quvenzhané Wallis (weak year with no other possible lead)
3. Keira Knightley (could benefit from weak year)
4. Judi Dench (the AMPAS love to nominate her)
5. Maggie Gyllenhaal (I'm going to stick with her until at least the film opens)
4. Judi Dench (the AMPAS love to nominate her)
5. Maggie Gyllenhaal (I'm going to stick with her until at least the film opens)
Don't rule out: Emmanuelle Riva, Marion Cotillard, Meryl Streep (unbelievably, she still has a strong chance), Maggie Smith, Naomi Watts, Laura Linney, Amy Adams, Barbra Streisand, Viola Davis. This race is a hot mess.
Supporting Actor
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman
2. Alan Arkin
3. Leonardo DiCpario
4. Michael Pena
5. Dwight Henry
Don't Rule Out: Matthew McConaughey, David Straitharn, Russell Crowe, Robert DeNiro
Supporting Actress
1. Anne Hathaway
2. Amy Adams
3. Helen Hunt
4. Viola Davis
5. Nicole Kidman
Don't Rule Out: Sally Field, Jacki Weaver, Kristen Stewart, Maggie Smith (Exotic), Pauline Collins, Jessica Chastain (Zero), Samantha Barks, Vanessa Redgrave, Kerry Washington, Helena Bonham Carter, Annette Bening, Olivia Williams
Director
1. Ben Affleck
2. P.T. Anderson
3. David O. Russell
4. Steven Spielberg
5. Wes Anderson
Don't Rule Out: Michael Haneke, Christopher Nolan, Ang Lee, Tom Hooper, Robert Zemekis, Quentin Tarantino, Kathryn Bigelow, Benh Zeitlin
Original Screenplay
1. The Master
2. Moonrise Kingdom
3. Django Unchained
4. Amour
5. Flight
Don't Rule Out: The Sessions, Zero Dark Thirty, Hyde Park on Hudson, Seven Psychopaths
Adapted Screenplay
1. The Silver Linings Playbook
2. Argo
3. Lincoln
4. Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Don't Rule Out: Life of Pi, Les Miserables, Anna Karenina, The Impossible, Cloud Atlas, Looper, Brave
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