Best Actor (Lead & Supporting) Oscar 2013 - May Predictions

Not much has changed in the Best Actor race, though I'm beginning to warm up to the idea of "Matthew McConaughey, Oscar Nominee."  He could even win.  The shock value of the weight loss might even be enough to consider his nomination a given at this point, even if the movie ends up being terrible.  We'll see.  I just caught him in Mud and he was pretty good.  The Cannes reviews for Oscar Isaac in Inside Llewyn Davis have been decent enough that I feel comfortable with him on top so far, not that I believe he's ultimately going to win.  With Fruitvale Station continuing to chug along and collect great accolades at every station and TWC in his corner, Michael B. Jordan is all but assured a nomination, though it will be interesting to see if Idris Elba will cut into his chances or if Harvey Weinstein will be able to get them both in.  Vulture wrote an article the other day of the possibility of three black men getting into this category and making history, even though I alluded to this possibility over two months ago.  They seem to think Harvey Weinstein could do it single-handedly along with Forest Whitaker in The Butler.  I'm still convinced that Lee Daniels' upcoming release is going to blow chunks, but I'm beginning to wonder if it might have what it takes to make The Academy cave.  I mean, are we looking at another The Help here?  I really believed the stunt-casting of former presidents and first ladies was going to be its death knell, but what I didn't consider is that Whitaker might be able to dodge all of those landmines and capture the film's only nomination, along with perhaps Oprah Winfrey.  I guess we'll know this August.  That being said, I still thing Chiwetel Ejiofor has a much better chance at a nod than at least one of Harvey's guys, though being a former winner certainly will help Whitaker's chances.  One would think Morgan Freeman's relatively recent nod for playing Nelson Mandela might hinder Elba's shot.

Best Actor
1 (--). Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
2 (--). Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
3 (+1). Bruce Dern, Nebraska
4 (+1). Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
5 (+3). Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club


6 (New). Christian Bale, American Hustle
7 (+4). Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
8 (New). Forrest Whitaker, The Butler
9 (New). Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
10 (-1). Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

11 (+18). Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby
12 (-9). Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
13 (+4). Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
14 (New). Matt Damon, The Monuments Men
15 (New). Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
16 (-2). Tye Sheridan, Mud (supporting?)
17 (-10). Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
18 (-8). George Clooney, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
19 (New). Josh Brolin, Labor Day (supporting?)
20 (New). Robert Redford, All Is Lost

21 (New). Miles Teller, The Spectacular Now
22 (New). Ali Mosaffa, The Past
23 (-17). Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate
24 (New). Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man
25 (-7). Daniel Brühl, Rush
26 (-13). Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks (supporting?)
27 (New). Hugh Jackman, Prisoners
28 (-12). Colin Firth, The Railway Man
29 (+10). Colin Firth, Devil's Knot
30 (New). Will Forte, Nebraska (supporting?)

31 (+2). Ralph Fiennes, The Invisible Woman
32 (-1). Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
33 (New). Michael Pena, Chavez
34 (+2). Forrest Whitaker, Black Nativity
35 (New). Colin Farrell, Saving Mr. Banks (supporting?)
36 (+2). Matthew McConaughey, Mud (supporting?)
37 (-18). Casey Affleck, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
38 (-4). Ryan Gosling, Only God Forgives
39 (-25). Jeremy Renner, Lowlife
40 (-6). Bradley Cooper, Serena

41 (-15). Ryan Gosling, The Place Beyond the Pines
42 (-14). Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
43 (-32). Chadwick Boseman, 42
44 (-14). Josh Brolin, Oldboy
45 (-5). Robert DeNiro, Malavita
46 (-14). Chris Hemsworth, Rush (supporting?)
47 (-27). Liam James, The Way Way Back
48 (-21). Christian Bale, Out of the Furnace
49 (-12). Joaquin Phoenix, Her
50 (New). Dennis Quaid, At Any Price

Supporting Actor
1. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks (lead?)
2. Chris Cooper, August: Osage County
3. Will Forte, Nebraska (lead?)
4. Ewan McGregor, August: Osage County
5. Colin Farrell, Saving Mr. Banks (lead?)

6. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
7. Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave
8. Josh Brolin, Labor Day (lead?)
9. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher  (lead?)
10. Benedict Cumberbatch, August: Osage County

11. Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back
12. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
13. John Goodman, The Monuments Men
14. George Clooney, The Monuments Men

[4/19 Note: Forgot Vithaya Pansringarm from Only God Forgives] 

15. Tye Sheridan, Mud (lead?)
16. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
17. Michael Shannon, Man of Steel
18. Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher (lead?)
19. Tim Roth, Grace of Monaco
20. James Franco, Spring Breakers

21. Chris Hemsworth, Rush 
22. Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man (lead?)
23. Matthew McConaughey, Mud
24. Woody Harrelson, Out of the Furnace
25. Benedict Cumberbatch, Twelve Years a Slave
26. Ben Foster, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
27. Tahir Rahim, The Past
28. Harrison Ford, 42
29. Adam Scott, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
30. George Clooney, Gravity

31. Javier Bardem, The Counselor
32. Brad Pitt, The Counselor
33. Terrence Howard, Prisoners
34. Jeremy Renner, American Hustle
35. Matthew McConaughey, The Wolf of Wall Street
36. Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners
37. Joaquin Phoenix, The Immigrant
38. Justin Timberlake, Inside Llewyn Davis
39. Tobey Maguire, The Great Gatsby