Best Actress Oscar 2012: June Predictions

Keira Knightley contemplates her Oscar chances this year

Cinesnatch hasn't made Best Actress predix since April.  It's time!  I've also added a supporting category.  Per usual, there are a few actress prospects who appear to be straddling the proverbial category fence; as well, there are a few ladies who may have horses in each race.  If 2011's predictions were mostly predictable at any given point, 2012's lot is anything but.  But, this is my preference.  Unpredictability is a win for us all.  I have come to one conclusion, though: Jennifer Lawrence will be a two-time Oscar nominee in a year's time.  Bold or stupid?

Katniss' Box-Office Display
Oscar pundits have been playing with the idea since the success of The Hunger Games.  From a performance perspective, Lawrence's chances struck me as ridiculous in the context of Winter's Bone (where the crux of her chances may ultimately lie).  Not that her work as Katniss isn't sound (it is) and she more than carried the first installation of the profitable franchise, she doesn't do anything that differentiates her work from her portrayal of Ree, which was such a revelation.  Further complicating matters is my lukewarm take on Games: solid, but forgettable entertainment.  It's also easy to dismiss her chances as the character is straight out of series of novels popular with young adults (and beyond).  But, we're living in a different time now, aren't we?  And it's not like you can't make several distinctions between Katniss and, say, Bella from Twilight, that put the roles, performances, and films, in two completely different leagues.

Not only did Games open big and proceed to become one of the highest grossing films of the year, but it's pretty beloved at this point.  We'll see if it stands the test of time.  But, that isn't what the AMPAS are about all the time.  But, what if we look at matters from the angle of box-office success?  The weight of the story lies on Lawrence's shoulders and she soundly drove the plot until the end.  You have to reach way down the ladder to find such films whose lead actress wasn't rewarded for her efforts.  But, before we get there, what do we see?

Gone with the Wind and Titanic had the luxury of being historical epics.  Doctor Zhivago doesn't figure in, because Julie Christie was nominated and won for Darling.  There are plenty of contemporary love stories like, An Officer and a Gentleman, Pretty Woman (which was indeed Julia Roberts' movie), and, appropriately enough, Love Story.  You have plenty of musical examples: The Sound of Music, Mary Poppins, My Fair Lady, West Side Story, Funny Girl.  You even have films that aren't about its leading lady that managed Best Actress Oscar nominations anyway: Guess Who's Coming to Dinner, On Golden Pond, The Graduate, Rocky, The Exorcist, and Fatal Attraction.  And, of course, we have The Blind Side.  

It's not until we get to Nia Vardalos' independent hit-comedy My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Demi Moore's tear-stained Molly "you in danger girl" Jensen in Ghost, and Elizabeth Taylor's Cleopatra, that we get a female lead glossed over by the Oscars.  I don't think anyone ever expected a nomination out of Moore for anything.  Cleopatra, winner of four of its nine Oscars,  came with its own special baggage.  Remember, this is the movie Taylor started filming after stealing Eddie Fisher away from Debbie Reynolds, where she would meet the true love of her life, Richard Burton, who was married at the time.  There was also the element of her shutting down production of the film due to life-threatening circumstances in the context of her exorbitant salary.  Or maybe it was just her performance.

But, as far as Vardalos, one can only surmise that she was left out due to 2002 being a very baity year (literary icons, the most successful musical of the last three decades, Julianne Moore's crowing cinematic achievement, and Diane Lane during that train scene in Unfaithful).  While Pretty Woman and Greek Wedding were both rom-com's, it's hard to compare Vardalos to Roberts' star-making turn.  I can't confidently say Lawrence is "in."  But, due to the seemingly uncompetitive year, she has a leg up, for starters.  But, no one seems to be saying much at this point, so what do I know?  Should more apt comparisons be gender-blind: Sam Wooden-acting in Avatar, Leonardo Dicaprio in Inception, Christian Bale as Batman, Daniel Radcliffe as Harry Potter?  Where does Lawrence belong?

Previous Best Actress Winners
It’s not that often for the field to be absent of a former Best Actress winner (i.e. 1970, 1974, 1976, 1989, 1992, 2002).  Generally speaking, the Best Actress race tends to involve at least one previous lead winner, whether their subsequent nod is relatively recent to their win (Anne Bancroft, Glenda Jackson, Sally Field, Jane Fonda, Jodie Foster, Emma Thompson, Hilary Swank, Charlize Theron, Helen Mirren, Nicole Kidman), an old classic (Julie Andrews, Diane Keaton, Julie Christie, Joanne Woodward, Ellen Burnstyn, Sissy Spacek), or Katharine Hepburn or Meryl Streep.  Two of these ladies isn’t uncommon, but it’s not frequent either.  But even less like is three past winners (1978) in the mix.  These year's candidates appear to be Marion Cotillard and Maggie Smith.  Others whose chances may not be as great include Helen Hunt, Nicole Kidman, and Barbra Streisand.

Festival Favorites

With the exception of last year where we had an unprecedented three bids for not only a nomination, but an Oscar, as well as two other also-rans that appeared inevitable a year in advance, the last six years have offered the field one to three nominees that were film festival favorites before their respective awards year Summers began (2006: Penélope Cruz; 2007: Cotillard, Christie, Laura Linney; 2008: Melissa Leo; 2009: Carey Mulligan, Gabourey Sidibe; 2010: Annette Bening, Lawrence, Michelle Williams).  As far as Sundance this year, the best word has been circulating around Quvenzhané Wallis, Hunt, and Mary Elizabeth Winstead.  Cannes did circles around Cotillard and Emmanuelle Riva.  Berlin: Rachel Mwanza.  I was kicking and screaming Cotillard's name into the top five, but she has some noticeable indicators at this point (and, here I thought Low Life was going to be her more competitive entry).  Unpredictable years rely on early festival favorites these days.

Hathaway Dreamed a Dream She'd Win Oscar
And, you can call me whatever name you want to, but I really have nothing to lose by including Anne Hathaway in the lead slot, now do I?  I fully acknowledge that Fantine is a SUPPORTING role.  But, I'm sorry, I am not 100% convinced she will be campaigned for supporting.  Who campaigns this early and hard for supporting?  The only "leading" actresses to win a supporting Oscar and go on to a lucrative artistic and box-office friendly career in recent memory are Angelina Jolie and Cate Blanchett.  With Jolie, she was still fairly new and on her way up.  With Blanchett, she has specifically designed a career mixing lead and supporting roles (and more supporting as she ages).  Otherwise, supporting actress Oscars are death knells, swan songs, or character actress appreciation awards.  Hathaway's age, beauty, and talent doesn't fit into any of these blueprints.  I'm even less convinced that she won't be pushed for a lead Golden Globe nod in the musical/comedy category.  The producers for Chicago pulled the same bait-and-switch with Catherine Zeta-Jones to help snag her an Oscar.  Who is to say Hathaway's people won't take a page out of that book?  And, yes, I'm well aware that Velma was a co-lead of sorts and Renée Zellweger was ultimately designated the lead over Zeta-Jones, as the story is told from Roxie's perspective, etc.  But, until matters are fully settled, I'm putting Hathaway in both categories and there she will remain until her campaign clears the air.  So, please humor me until the reality of the situation schools me.

And the Rest ... 
In the meanwhile, I stubbornly continue on my prognosticating quest with Keira Knightley at the top of my list because someone needs to be at #1, right?  The Great Gatsby looked like a boring mess before the trailer, and looks even worse after.  Still, I'm hanging onto Mulligan being one of its best chances at a nod.  From the trailer of Won't Back Down, Maggie Gyllenhaal is clearly not a supporting role, Viola Davis be damned.  And, they're certainly selling it as Gyllenhaal's film right now.  And, with the big studio push, if it's a hit, the AMPAS have already warmed up to her, giving her a surprise nod for Crazy Heart.  She was superb as a fuck-up in Sherrybaby, but 2006 was a competitive year and, alas, not her time.  I'm sure these rankings will all change again come September after Venice, Telluride, and Toronto hit.  I can't imagine much will shift over the Summer, outside of any new trailers that will arrive and influence matters one way or another.  I would say my confidence lies in the top eleven.  At present, it's hard to imagine a nominee that won't be from that group.  Stay tuned for the next update sometime in late August or mid-September.

A Year Ago ...
Around this time last year, Cinesnatch had called four of the five eventual nominees, subbing in the 6th-place finisher Tilda Swinton for Davis (#34), who lost my confidence temporarily with the syrupy sweet trailer for The Help.  I was too stubborn to relent to Young Adult possibly being a great, good, or even average movie (it was great).  I had Charlize Theron at #32.  Yikes.  Bad form.  Others of notes: Kirsten Dusnt (#8), Felicity Jones (#10), Elizabeth Olsen (#11), and Knightley (#33) for A Dangerous Method.

Best Actress & Best Supporting Actress 2012 - June Predictions
1. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
2. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
3. Jennifer Lawrence, The Hunger Games
4. Maggie Smith, Quartet
5. Maggie Gyllenhaal, Won't Back Down


6. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
7. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
8. Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby
9. Amy Adams, Trouble with the Curve
10. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed


11. Laura Linney, Hyde Park on the Hudson
12. Helen Hunt, The Surrogate
13. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour 
14. Rachel Wanza, War Witch
15. Dakota Fanning, Effie


16. Marion Cotillard, Low Life
17. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
18. Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip
19. Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace
20. Kristen Wiig, Imogene


21. Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
22. Naomi Watts, Sunlight Jr.
23. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
24. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
25. Penélope Cruz, Venuto al mondo (Twice Born)


26. Frieda Pinto, Trishna
27. Abbie Cornish, The Girl 
28. Gwyneth Paltrow, Thanks for Sharing
29. Holly Hunter, Jackie

Golden Globe (Comedy/Musical)
1. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
2. Kristen Wiig, Imogene
3. Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip
4. Leslie Mann, This Is Forty
5. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables 


6. Victoria Justice, Fun Size
7. Blake Lively, Savages
8. Anna Kendrick, Pitch Perfect
9. Jennifer Garner, Butter
10. Greta Gerwig, Lola Verses


11. Keira Knightley, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World
12. Jordin Sparks, Sparkle
13. Jane Fonda, Love, Peace and Misunderstanding
14. Melanie Lynskey, Hello, I Must Be Going
15. Rashida Jones, Celeste and Jesse Forever


16. Zoe Kazan, Ruby Sparks
17. Diane Keaton, The Wedding
18. Rebecca Hall, Lay the Favorite



Best Supporting Actress
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables 
2. Helena Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
3. Kristen Stewart, On the Road 
4. Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook 
5. Kerry Washington, Django Unchained 


6. Samantha Barks, Les Misérables 
7. Vanessa Redgrave, Song for Marion 
8. Viola Davis, Won't Back Down
9. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
10. Jessica Chastain, Lawless 


11. Elizabeth Banks, People Like Us 
12. Pauline Collins, Quartet
13. Annette Bening, Imogene
14. Amanda Seyfried, Les Misérables 
15. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel


16. Sally Field, Lincoln 
17. Amy Adams, The Master
18. Emma Stone, The Gangster Squad 
19. Tabu, The Life of Pi 
20. Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis 


21. Nicole Kidman, Stoker 
22. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
23. Jacki Weaver, The Silver Linings Playbook
24. Kristin Scott Thomas, Only God Forgives 
25. Holly Hunter, Jackie


26. Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower 
27. Judy Davis, The Surrealist 
28. Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson 
29. Olivia Williams, Anna Karenina 
30. Olivia Colman, Hyde Park on Hudson


31. Mia Wasikowska, Lawless 
32. Emma Thompson, Effie 
33. Rose Byrne, The Place Beyond the Pines
34. Reese Witherspoon, Mud 
35. Julianne Moore, What Maise Knew 


36. Helen Sjoholm, Simon and the Oaks 
37. Emily Blunt, Looper
38. Olivia Thirlby, Nobody Walks 



April Prediction
February Prediction

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