Oscar Revisionism: 1965

Since I resurrected Oscar Revisionism last week, I'm going to try to keep it going.  So, for 1965, in the decade of the Hollywood musical, perhaps one of the most famous, The Sound of Music, took home the Oscar for Best Picture over Russian war opus Doctor Zhivago.  Its star Julie Christie won her Best Actress Oscar for another Best Picture nominee, Darling.  Also in the mix were the Jason Robards romantic comedy A Thousand Clowns and the star-studded Ship of Fools.  But, what if the field had been expanded to ten?  What else would have lost to The Sound of Music?  The year was filled with cold war spys, World War II action films, some really huge races, and a couple of ingenues figuring it all out.  

The Winner

The Sound of Music

One of most beloved musicals of all time places a nun in the Austrian Alps only to have her fall in love with wealthy single father.  She then must  contend with the Nazi regime, with only the power of the alive hills to give her strength.  Having won the previous year for Mary Poppins, Andrews wouldn't enjoy a ReOscaring.  

Total Wins/Nominations: 5 wins (Picture, Director, Film Editing, Adapted Score, Sound), 5 nominations (Actress, Supporting Actress, Color Cinematography, AD, Costumes)

Other Awards/Nominations: DGA winner, Golden Globe (Comedy) winner, NBR, WGA winner

Distributor: TCFFC

Release Date: 2. March

Domestic Box Office: One of the highest grossing films of all time.

Budget: $8.2M (IMDb)

Current RT: 84%

Current IMDb: 7.9

The Nominees

Doctor Zhivago

Russian Civil War epic romance starring Omar Sharif and Julie Christie based on the Boris Pasternak novel directed by David Lean. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 5 wins (Adapted Screenplay, Score, Color Cinematography, AD, Costumes), 5 nominations (Picture, Director, Actor, Film Editing, Sound)

Other Awards/Nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globe (Drama) winner, NBR, Laurel Awards (Drama) winner, Cannes

Distributor: MGM

Release Date: 22. September

Domestic Box Office: Huge

Budget: $111M (IMDb)

Current RT: 85%

Current IMDb: 8.0

Darling

Drama about a young model (Julie Christie) confronting hard truths about social hypocrisy in 1960s London. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 3 wins (Original Screenplay, Actress, B&W Costumes), 2 nominations (Picture, Director)

Other Awards/Nominations: DGA, NBR, NYFCC winner

Distributor: Embassy Pictures Corporation

Release Date: 3. August

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: N/A

Current RT: 75%

Current IMDb: 7.1

Ship of Fools

Ensemble drama starring Vivien Leigh, Simone Signoret, José Ferrer, and Lee Marvin set aboard a German ocean liner leaving Mexico. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 2 wins (B&W Cinematography, AD), 6 nominations (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, B&W Costumes)

Other Awards/Nominations: NBR, Golden Globe (Drama), WGA

Distributor: Columbia Pictures

Release Date: 29. July

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: N/A

Current RT: 81%

Current IMDb: 7.1

A Thousand Clowns

Rom-com starring Jason Robards as a man forced to deal with life.

Total Wins/Nominations: 1 win (Supporting Actor), 3 nominations (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Adapted Score)

Other Awards/Nominations: NBR, Golden Globe (Comedy)

Distributor: United Artists

Release Date: 13. December

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: N/A

Current RT: 67%

Current IMDb: 7.5

The Revisionism Possibilities ...

A Patch of Blue

Interracial romantic drama starring Sidney Poitier. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 1 win (Supporting Actress), 4 nominations (Actress, Score, B&W AD, Cinematography)

Other Awards/Nominations: Laurel Awards (Drama), Golden Globe (Drama)

Distributor: MGM

Release Date: 10. December

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: $0.8M (IMDb)

Current RT: 100%

Current IMDb: 7.9

Les Parapluies de Cherbourg (The Umbrellas of Cherbourg)

French-musical starring Catherine Deneuve as a young lass making her way through life. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 5 nominations (Foreign Language Film, Original Screenplay, Song, Score, Adapted Score)

Other Awards/Nominations: Cannes Winnre

Distributor: Landau Releasing Organization (LRO)

Release Date: 16. December 1964

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: N/A

Current RT: 98%

Current IMDb: 7.8

Cat Ballou

Jane Fonda plays the title character in this comic western about a woman who hires a gunman for protection. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 1 win (Actor), 4 nominations (Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Son, Adapted Score)

Other Awards/Nominations: DGA, Laurel Awards (Comedy) winner, Golden Globe (Comedy), Berlin, WGA

Distributor: Columbia Pictures

Release Date: 24. June

Domestic Box Office: $20M (Wikipedia)

Budget: N/A

Current RT: 100%

Current IMDb: 6.8

The Collector 

Perhaps a precursor to The Silence of the Lambs, William Wyler directed this thriller about a butterfly enthusiast (Terrence Stamp) who adds a woman (Samantha Eggar) to his collection.  Kind of cool to contemplate that it may have gotten in.  

Total Wins/Nominations: 3 nominations (Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actress)

Other Awards/Nominations: Laurel Awards (Drama) 5^thPlace, Cannes, Golden Globe (Drama), WGA

Distributor: Columbia Pictures

Release Date: 17. June

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: N/A

Current RT: 100%

Current IMDb: 7.5

The Agony and the Ecstasy

This Carol Reed drama has Charlton Heston playing Michelangelo to Rex Harrison’s Pope Julius II.

Total Wins/Nominations: 5 nominations (Score, Sound, Color Cinematography, AD, Costumes)

Other Awards/Nominations: NBR

Distributor: TCFFC

Release Date: 7. October

Domestic Box Office: $4M (IMDb)

Budget: $7.2M (Wikipedia)

Current RT: 100%

Current IMDb: 6.9

The Spy Who Came in from the Cold

The very first film John le Carré adaptation from the thinking man’s Ian Fleming. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 2 nominations (Actor, B&W AD)

Other Awards/Nominations: NBR, BAFTA, WGA

Distributor: Paramount Pictures

Release Date: 16. December

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: N/A

Current RT: 83%

Current IMDb: 7.6

The Greatest Story Ever Told

The title says it all, no?  Was the George Stevens epic great enough to make it for that year’s Oscar Top Ten? 

Total Wins/Nominations: 5 nominations (Score, Visual Effects, Color Cinematography, AD, Costume Design)

Other Awards/Nominations: NBR

Distributor: United Artists

Release Date: 15. February

Domestic Box Office: $12M (Wikipedia)

Budget: $20M (IMDb)

Current RT: 37%

Current IMDb: 6.3

The Pawnbroker

A Holocaust survivor rebuilds his life in New York in this Sidney Lumet drama that took on the censorboard (and won). 

Total Wins/Nominations: 1 nomination (Actor)

Other Awards/Nominations: DGA, Berlin, Laurel Awards (Drama) 4^th Place, WGA winner

Distributor: Allied Artists Pictures

Release Date: 20. April

Domestic Box Office: $3M (Wikipedia)

Budget: $0.9M (Wikipedia)

Current RT: 100%

Current IMDb: 7.8

Othello

Shakespeare classic about the titular Moor manipulated into a murderous fit of jealousy starring Laurence Olivier complete in, omg, blackface. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 4 nominations (Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor)

Other Awards/Nominations: N/A

Distributor: Warner Bros. Pictures

Release Date: 15. December

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: N/A

Current RT: 80%

Current IMDb: 7.4

Suna no Onna (Woman in the Dunes)

Japanese film about an entomologist who stumbles upon a widow, with whom he has trouble escaping and they contend with being surrounded by sand. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 2 nominations (Director, Foreign Language Film)

Other Awards/Nominations: Cannes

Distributor: Pathé Contemporary Films

Release Date: 25. October 1964

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: N/A

Current RT: 100%

Current IMDb: 8.4

King Rat

World War II POW survival drama starring George Segal.

Total Wins/Nominations: 2 nominations (B&W Cinematography, AD)

Other Awards/Nominations: N/A

Distributor: Columbia Pictures

Release Date: 27. October

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: N/A

Current RT: N/A

Current IMDb: 7.6

The Train

World War II action film involving the French verses the Germans during an art heist. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 1 nomination (Original Screenplay)

Other Awards/Nominations: NBR, BAFTA

Distributor: United Artists

Release Date: 7. March

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: $6.7M (IMDb)

Current RT: 86%

Current IMDb: 7.8

Shenandoah

Pacifist Civil War drama starring James Stewart.

Total Wins/Nominations: 1 nomination (Sound)

Other Awards/Nominations: Laurel Awards (Drama) 3^rdPlace

Distributor: Universal Pictures

Release Date: 3. June

Domestic Box Office: $17.2M (IMDb)

Budget: N/A

Current RT: N/A

Current IMDb: 7.3

Thunderball

Bond, James Bond.  One of only two in the franchise to win an Oscar.

Total Wins/Nominations: 1 win (Visual Effects)

Other Awards/Nominations: Laurel Awards (Action-Drama) winner

Distributor: United Artists

Release Date: 21. December

Domestic Box Office: $64M (IMDb)

Budget: $9M (IMDb)

Current RT: 88%

Current IMDb: 7.0

The Flight of the Phoenix

James Stewart, Richard Attenborough, Peter Finch, and Ernest Borgnine must survive the Saharan desert after their aircraft crashes. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 2 nominations (Supporting Actor, Film Editing)

Other Awards/Nominations: Golden Globe (Drama)

Distributor: TCFFC

Release Date: 15. December

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: $5.4M (Wikipedia)

Current RT: 88%

Current IMDb: 7.6

Morituri

World War II naval drama set in India starring Marlon Brando and Yul Brynner. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 2 nominations (B&W Cinematography, Costumes)

Other Awards/Nominations: N/A

Distributor: TCFFC

Release Date: 25. August

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: $6.3M (Wikipedia)

Current RT: N/A

Current IMDb: 6.9

Those Magnificent Men in Their Flying Machines

A comedy set in the early 1900s about an air race across the English Channel. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 1 nomination (Original Screenplay)

Other Awards/Nominations: Laurel Awards (Comedy) 4^thPlace, Golden Globe (Comedy)

Distributor: TCFFC

Release Date: 16. June

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: $5.6M (IMDb) - $6.5M (Wikipedia)

Current RT: 71%

Current IMDb: 6.9

The Great Race 

Blake Edwards early 1900s-set comedy with self-explanatory title with an all-star cast including Jack Lemmon, Tony Curtis, Natalie Wood, and Peter Falk. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 1 win (Sound Effects), 4 nominations (Film Editing, Song, Sound, Color Cinematography)

Other Awards/Nominations: Laurel Awards (Comedy), Golden Globe (Comedy)

Distributor: Warner Bros. Pictures

Release Date: 1. July

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: $12M (IMDb) – considered most expensive comedy ever produced up until that point.

Current RT: 77%

Current IMDb: 7.1

The Ipcress File

Another, lesser known version from another thinking man’s Ian Fleming?

Total Wins/Nominations: 0

Other Awards/Nominations: DGA, Cannes

Distributor: Universal Pictures

Release Date: 2. August

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: N/A

Current RT: 100%

Current IMDb: 7.3

Casanova 70

Marcello Mastroianni plays a lothario who can’t settle down in this Italian comedy. 

Total Wins/Nominations: 1 nomination (Original Screenplay)

Other Awards/Nominations: N/A

Distributor: Embassy Pictures Corporation

Release Date: 20. July

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: N/A

Current RT: N/A

Current IMDb: 6.2

Inside Daisy Clover

Romance starring Natalie Wood and Robert Redford about a starry-eyed young woman hoping to make it in Tinsel Town

Total Wins/Nominations: 3 nominations (Supporting Actress, Color AD, Costumes)

Other Awards/Nominations: N/A

Distributor: Warner Bros. Pictures

Release Date: December

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: $4.5M (IMDb)

Current RT: N/A

Current IMDb: 6.3

The Eleanor Roosevelt Story

Total Wins/Nominations: 1 win (Documentary)

Other Awards/Nominations: NBR winner

Distributor: Allied Artists Pictures

Release Date: 8. November

Domestic Box Office: N/A

Budget: N/A

Current RT: N/A

Current IMDb: 6.7

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Not With My Daughters

Supposedly wounded, whip-its-loving Demi Moore's fugly daughters (you know, the ones with all the stupid names: Gossip, ThatMovieIDidWithDamonWayans, and LookWhatIJustFound) are all ganging up on her and insisting that she move on from her current marriage to Ashton Kutcher.  Truthfully, if I saw these three girls stomping down the street, I'd run the other direction.  They look like they mean business and I don't know if it means they'd kick my lame ass or barbecue me for lunch.  Apparently, they're taking Kutcher's side over THEIR OWN MOTHER.  Now, I'm not nominating her for Parent of the Year or anything (probably quite the contrary), but he's an established douchebag and Moore needs to soak him for all she can get (especially if she is able to cash in on his Two-and-a-Half-Too-Many paychecks).  But, it has been suggested that he's throwing everything at her with dollar signs, and she only sees a noose around his neck.  Withholding divorce is all that cougar has left in life now.  More importantly, however, caught in the middle of this whole mess is the lovely and charming Mila Kunis who suffers from boyfriend-myopia and is dating Kutcher.  She needs all the encouragement she can get to leave that joke.  That ungrateful trio of bitches are getting in the way of my hopes and dream for Mila; they need to back the Hell off and rally around mama.  The longer Moore holds out, the more impatient Kunis will have to grow and maybe smarten up.  Moore doesn't appear to have a very strong constitution, even with all that G.I. Jane training from 1997.  And, I don't imagine Moore eats anymore and, in her delusional state, she's bound to cash in her last chip out of mere confusion.  Whoopi needs to bring her on The View and set her straight.  If not, Mila, you in danger girl!  

[Image via Radar Online]

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Rita Rizzoli: "She's No Lady ... This Is Whoopi"

I would feel a little safer living in L.A. if this were the late 1980s, because at least I know that Rita Rizzoli would be cleaning up the streets and keeping the criminals in check.  Instead, I have to carry mace with me while working walking Sunset Blvd at night and looking over my shoulder every couple seconds.  Back in 1987, Sophia Loren was unavailable to play the part of the Italian-American female officer and Armenian-American Cher thought she'd have better awards chances playing a similar ethnic role in Moonstruck (her bet paid off), so they went with the next logical choice: Whoopi Goldberg (otherwise known as cohost on the left-hand side of The View table who knows how to put the skinny conservative one in her place without looking like a militant split-screened bitch who writes Haiku on her blog to calm herself).  She wears a bad-ass blonde curly wig (Whoopi, not Rosie) and kicks white bitch Beverly Hills ass.  She can give good eye-roll and somersault into a gun pose on cue.  It's clear that Whoopi studied Gail Neely's raw determination to take the law into her own hands, uttering lines like, "One word, and I'm going to clear your sinuses" and "People like you are the reason abortion is legal."  (Thanks to coscreenwriter Dean Riesner [may he RIP] who knew these words were going to be as memorable as "Make my day.")  The announcer lets us know (like we didn't already): "She's got the moves, she's got the mouth, she's got the badge."  She also has Sam Elliott stalking her thinking he has a thing or two to teach her, but we know it's the other way around.  When he makes fun of the way she dresses, smells, even her relationship with her cat, you KNOW he wants some of Miss Celie.  What *is* Fatal Beauty, you still ask?  You mean, you haven't figure it out?  Well, I thought it was an obvious reference to Whoopi not only being a cop, but using her wiles on the side as a Black Widow bride.  However, judging from the trailer, it's a drug that the ignorant masses will eat up with a spoon doled out by crime lord Brad Dourif, who specialized in playing looney after his bat-shit crazy, but inadvertently sexy portrayal of Billy Bibbit in One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest.  (When I was a kid, I dreamed of being his asylum ward, and dressing him up in a straitjacket [I'd wear a gay one] so he'd never leave me for any of those visiting hos.  Later on in life, I'd make out with a guy who played Bibbit in a community theatre production.  So, I guess I almost got there.)  If he won the Oscar that year, we would have known what George Burns would be like as a smug drug dealer with shoulder-length hair.  This instant classic made only $12M at the box-office, but I'm sure it cost twice that much, because, this was before studios knew that Whoopi will say yes to any movie (she was the Nicolas Cage of her day).  Beauty currently suffers from a 25% RT score, which is tragically less than every single piece-of-shit Twilight movie (even New Moon!).  This was director Tom Holland's followup to giving us a hot slice of Chris Sarandon as an orgasmically sexy vampire in Fright Night (the original), and went on to direct such classics as Child's Play and The Temp.  Just so you know how weird Hollywood is, coscreenwriter Hilary Henkin went on to get nominated for writing Wag the Dog (with David Mamet).  From trash to red carpet faster than Rita Rizzoli will say "freeze!"

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LeRoy's Mama: “She’s tough, she’s dangerous, and she’s all woman.”

In Surf Nazis Must Die, in the not too distant apocalyptic future, a major earthquake lays waste to the entire Californian coastline (presumably bigger than 1989 or 1994) “Where the beaches have become battlefields and the waves, a war zone,” and out of the rubble rises a bunch of surf Nazis. Some of them are named after famous German World War II figures of the non-surfing variety, including dagger-yielding Eva, who started cutting up crotches long before Lorena Bobbitt. Other names deviate from history like Smeg. And, yes, there is footage of a surfer heiling Hitler while catching a wave.  They rule over all of the gangs, which represent the worst of ethnic and social stereotypes, not excluding the gays, who are oddly referenced as “The Designer Wave.” The only person that can stop them is LeRoy’s Mama, Eleanor ‘Mama’ Washington (Gail Neely, from the Milk of Magnesia commercials, as well as Winnie Mandela in The Naked Gun 2 1/2; may she RIP).  Not since the Road Warrior or the Terminator has there been a force to be reckoned with killing lines like, “Taste some of mama’s own cooking, Adolf,” as she shoves a pistol down his throat and, “I want to buy a gun … but, I’m more interested in something that will take a head off a honky at twenty paces.”

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Siesta: "The Time of Day When Mystery and Eroticism Become One"

Before Jodie Foster won her Oscars, but after she graduated from Yale, she made some crappy movies hardly anyone saw.  One of them starred Ellen Barkin in a sultry red dress looking hot like she never had before (she was in her early 30s).  Siesta was written and directed by women and Miles Davis (!) provided the score.  It was filmed in Spain and featured an eclectic international group of actors: Barkin's future ex-husband and baby daddy Gabriel Byrne, Jodie Foster, Martin Sheen, Julian Sands, Isabella Rossellini, and Grace Jones amongst others, the latter of two of which received Razzie nominations.  Conversely, the film also garnered Independent Spirit attention.  Foster displays a New England/British accent and is almost as loose as she got on that pool table a few years later.  The movie features skydiving, acrobatics, Rossellini brandishing a knife (because she did it so well in Blue Velvet), and a creepy, but helpful taxi driver in what seems like a more adult, feminist version of Romancing the Stone.  I'm not sure what exactly Barkin's character has gotten herself into, but if her exploits result in "ambition and a half hour of prime time TV," it was well worth it, I guess.  Was she talking about playing the great grandmother on The New Normal?  The trailer is something to behold.

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Uh-oh ... Best Picture 2012: Les Mis Vs. Lincoln

Perhaps Tom O'Neil was correct.  These Best Picture contenders keep topping each other.  First, it was Argo.  Then, it was Lincoln.  NOW (like mere hours ago), it's Les Misérables.  It makes me think of 2002.  Chicago was the first musical to win Best Picture in ages and it defeated two period epics in the process (one of which took the directing and screenplay awards).  Its production was a long time coming, having a history in turnaround, but there was an inevitability to the film.  If the musicals were ever going to make a comeback, this was the one just waiting to break the seal.  Well, Moulin Rouge! gets credit for getting the party started that Hollywood has thrown for the genre in the 2000s and beyond, but Chicago was the first major Broadway musical to make it to the silver screen since Evita (1996), and A Chorus Line (1985).  Chicago joined a long line of winners including Oliver!, The Sound of Music, My Fair Lady, West Side Story, Gigi, An American in Paris, Going My Way, The Great Ziegfeld, and The Broadway Melody.  Hollywood was able to congratulate itself again with producing a successful enough musical to award it the Best Picture trophy after a drought of over thirty years.  It missed two common harbingers on its way there (Director, Screenplay) .  I don't believe a musical has ever won for its script besides Gigi (and only a handful nominated), so that wasn't a big surprise.  Best Director is an easier get if Best Picture is in the cards: all but three of the first four musicals to win the top prize managed to also grab this category, and, Chicago.  Additionally, Cabaret snagged Best Director, but lost to The Godfather for top honors.

From a number perspective, they aren't on the side of Les Misérables.  But like 2002, if Les Mis is successful enough from both a commercial and critical standpoint, it wouldn't be unheard of for Hollywood to honor it with Best Picture and bestow the directing award to Steven Spielberg or Ben Affleck.  Still, we probably won't really know until at least Christmas Day when it opens.  Though The Film Experience hints that word is good.  See towards bottom of post how 2012 seems to be following 2002's template.

As far as the rest, Life of Pi has clearly established itself in the Top Five now that it has opened.  And by the sheer fact that Harvey Weinstein is behind Silver Linings Playbook, at the very most, it may also reside in the Top Five (Dave Karger eat your heart out).  Beyond that, I'm befuddled by how Oscar pundits are underestimating Moonrise Kingdom.  It's a critical darling that made nearly $50M at the box-office.  It's director Wes Anderson's most accessible film to date and a prime opportunity to honor one of his live-action features beyond the screenplay category.  Perhaps The Royal Tenenbaums would have made a Field of Ten in 2001 in retrospect?  Perhaps not?  Eleven years later, we're probably facing a greater dearth in commercially successful, critically respected films, which only improves Kingdom's chances, no?

What about the art-house films that have been successful to smaller degrees?  If the last three years have taught us anything, it's that there is only so much room for these movies.  In 2009, seven of the Field of Ten were well on their way to grossing healthy numbers pre-nominations.  On the other hand, eventual winner The Hurt Locker and nominees An Education and A Serious Man grossed roughly $8.5M - $12.5M pre-nominations (and not a sizable amount thereafter). RT rating range from 89% to 97%, and MC 79 to 94, with Man having the benefit of the Coen brother's fanbase.

In 2010, again, seven even more financially successful films made it to the Field of Ten.  The remainders (The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, and Winter's Bone) grossed $6.5M - $20.8M pre-nominations, and enjoy an RT rating ranging from 93% - 94%, MC 82 to 90; 127 Hours having been directed by recent winner Danny Boyle.

In 2011, of the nine nominees, six of the films grossed a decent amount (even if they came no where near their budget like Hugo), leaving three that initially underwhelmed at the box-office, with their own very irregular set of stats and circumstances.  The eventual winner The Artist  (98% RT, 89 MC) didn't especially post crazy-good numbers, yet, once nominations were announced and it was in the middle of expansion, Harvey Weinstein managed to maintain an incredible consistency.  He got a lot of mileage from his efforts and it paid off in the end.  The Scott Rudin produced (heads up, he's behind Kingdom) Stephen Daldry-directed Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close was the big surprise nominee last year with 47% RT and 46 MC (we're talking The Blind Side level reviews!).  Its box office numbers weren't that special and it went wide the weekend before Oscar nominations were announced.  Timing was just about everything with that film.  The Tree of Life (84% RT, 85 MC) grossed only $13.3M earlier in the year, but was assisted by a core of support for director Terrence Malick.

I probably have to temper my prognosticating The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild, AND Amour all having a chance of getting in together.  The Master has the benefit of Weinstein, as well as strong support for director Paul Thomas Anderson.  Beasts would have to be a Winter's Bone type situation.  Amour, admittedly, is more of a long shot.    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo failing to get in last year makes me think The Dark Knight Rises' chances are limited.  It will all boil down to if the AMPAS want to recognize the finale of the trilogy, because they failed to nominate the second installment.  Fox Searchlight is no stranger to the Oscar game, sometimes getting two entries into the Best Picture field.  I imagine most of its energy will be behind Beasts, but will they have to choose how much effort to invest in The Sessions, The Best Marigold Exotic Hotel, and Hitchcock?  Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained will stand to benefit from large grosses, critical word of mouth, and studio push.  On paper, they still both seem quite possible.  I'm not entirely sold on Flight, but the studio is shooting for the stars.  Could a well-grossing Denzel Washington vehicle be enough to get in?

1. Les Misérables (wild card)
2. Lincoln 90 RT / 86 MC
3. Argo 95 / 86
4. Life of Pi  87 /78
5. Silver Linings Playbook.  89 / 82
6. Moonrise Kingdom 94 / 84
7. The Master 85 / 86
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild.  85 / 86

--The Bubble--

9. Flight 77 / 76
10. Zero Dark Thirty (wild card)
11. Django Unchained (wild card)
12. The Impossible 87 / 89 (limited reviews)
13. Amour  92 / 91
14. The Sessions 94 / 80
15. The Dark Knight Rises 87 / 78
16. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 77 / 62
17. The Perks of Being a Wallflower 86 / 67
18. Skyfall 92 / 81
19. Promised Land (wild card)
20. Hitchcock 61 / 56
21. Cloud Atlas 64 / 55
22. Anna Karenina 62 / 64
23. The Hobbit ("wild" card)


Current Prediction List
Best Picture: Les Misérables
Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Original Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Adapted Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln

Editing: William Goldenberg, Argo
Cinematography: Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
Production Design: Les Misérables
Costume Design: Paco Delgado, Les Misérables
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Makeup: Cloud Atlas
Song: "Suddenly," Les Misérables 
Score: Jonny Greenwood, The Master
Sound Editing: Life of Pi
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables

Foreign Language Film: Amour
Animated Feature: ParaNorman
Documentary: West of Memphis

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Best Actress 2012: November Oscar/Golden Globe Predictions

Well, there's a new gal to add the Best Actress category: Helen Mirren.  And, she's not only a potential nominee, but the former Oscar winner could quite possibly go for a second.  Well, not really.  With a baity role she has hit out of the park, complete with a juicy Oscar clip for the ceremony ("the great Alfred Hitchcock"), Mirren will probably celebrate her fifth nomination this January for her role as the famous director's wife Alma Reville.  She owns the movie and every scene she's in, in only a way that Mirren can do.  While she doesn't have winner written all over her performance, her chances rely heavily on the AMPAS willingness to give the well-respected veteran another statue over a much younger up-and-comer Jennifer Lawrence who basically gave a shrewdly entertaining rom-com turn (not a disparagement by any means, but this isn't a part that generally wins Oscars, especially in competitive years).  I'm still skeptical that the early twentysomething Lawrence will be rewarded so soon for such light material; but, at this point, no one has made a stronger argument for likelier winner and Harvey Weinstein has to win something this year, right?  Even more interesting is that both ladies technically fall into the Comedy/Musical category at the Golden Globes.  Perhaps not.  But, both films are  filled with laughs, especially Silver Linings Playbook.  Neither film is particularly emotionally dramatic, though Mirren's Oscar clip scene has an over-the-top gravitas, and Lawrence has a few heavy moments.  But, if these two are the front-runners, then I imagine the Globes will figure out a way to separate them, while Wallis, Cotillard, and Rivas take a back seat, amongst others.  So strange that this year is filled with actresses who may or may not make it in.

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
4. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

6. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
7. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
8. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
9. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
10. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
11. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

Golden Globe - Comedy
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook*
2. Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip
3. Leslie Mann, This Is Forty
4. Anna Kendrick, Pitch Perfect
5. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs*

6. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
7. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock*
8. Blake Lively, Savages
9. Julianna Hough, Rock of Ages
10. Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz

Golden Globe - Drama
1. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock*
2. Jennifer Lawrence, The Hunger Games+
3. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
4. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
5. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

6. Keira Knightley, Anne Karenina
7. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
8. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs*
9. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
10. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook*
11. Emily Blunt, Your Sister's Sister

*I'm undecided on which category the Globes will choose
+Depending on how they designate Silver Linings, Jennifer Lawrence stands a shot as a double-nominee

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Best Director 2012: Spielberg Vs. Affleck

Two years ago, Tom Hooper won Best Director for The King's Speech, thanks to Harvey Weinstein. It was a sour moment for many fans of The Social Network in what was possibly a 50/50 race. David Fincher, the motion picture veteran of the two, had logged in nearly two decades as a consistent, if less traditional, director of many hits and was gradually accumulating critical accolades. Hooper, who had one major minor feature underneath his belt, was best known for his cable telefilms. He was just getting started and already handed the crown. However, Speech was a hit which audiences and critics alike embraced, so who am I to say anything? That all being said, I doubt no matter how amazing Hooper's upcoming Les Misérables may be, will people be clamoring for his second directing Oscar in only two years.  Egg on my face if he gets it.

The list of directors winning two or more Oscars is composed of eighteen men, two of whom won three (William Wyler, Frank Capra), and one who won four (John Ford). The chances of a director getting ReOscared are 25%--much greater than in the acting categories. However, it should be said, that after about the mid-60s (in a list that included Robert Wise, David Lean, Fred Zinnemann, George Stevens, Josephs L. Mankiewicz, Billy Wilder, Elia Kazan, Frank Lloyd, Leo McCarey, Lewis Milestone, Frank Borzage), the practice of rerecognizing a director dropped precipitously. Since Fred Zinnemann, only Milos Forman, Oliver Stone, Clint Eastwood, and the golden child Steven Spielberg have won two directing Oscars. Forman and Stone don't produce the same quality of output they once did, but Eastwood and Spielberg are both considered Hollywood titans. Amongst his own generation, Spielberg grew to become the rule by which mainstream and (later) awards success was measured, especially when he began tackling more adult subject matter like Schindler's List (apparently, many didn't consider The Color Purple mature enough).

The idea of Spielberg winning a third Oscar isn't unheard of, and, frankly, quite expected, IMO. It's a matter of timing and film, really. While I lost faith in Streep winning at the last moment last year, in hindsight, her win was never in doubt. While the AMPAS could have made history with Viola Davis, Streep, after seventeen nominations, had finally topped herself. Maybe not in performance, but, by the very fact that she was depicting a 20th-century icon gave her a leg up in a way she didn't have before.  Margaret Thatcher was one of the most famous women of her time and Streep had just portrayed her quite convincingly (in an otherwise lackluster film).  And she was on her 17th nomination!  For the same reason, along with the Time Magazine cover (although I'm sure it doesn't carry the weight it once used to) and the long-running perception that he is the greatest working actor, I believe Daniel Day-Lewis has his third Oscar clinched by having played one of the most famous people in history and doing so quite well (not because of my personal bias, but what the tea leaves are saying). Even though his second win was only five years ago and he hardly ever puts out a film, he's not exactly a spring chicken.  And, imagine it'll be Streep handing him that Oscar.  Talk about a photo opportunity.  

While The Iron Lady was a mess of a film, Lincoln achieves what it sets out to do. It tells the story of the 16th U.S. president's (and country's) greatest achievements: ending slavery while also The Civil War. Spielberg has captured this milestone on film and done so with great commercial and critical success. While I found the film plodding, which may be in due part to the subject matter, its Importance and mildly self-congratulatory nature may go off very well with The Academy.  Lincoln's success at the Oscars will go beyond Day-Lewis, but, just how far, is difficult to predict right now. First on the list just may well be Spielberg, who tried 19th-century history before with Amistad and fell comparatively short.  And if Spielberg makes it, the Best Picture honor will also be his (I imagine screenplay, makeup, score, at the very least, will follow suit).  What gives me pause is his latest movie is so sobering and less manipulative than his usual fare.  Schindler's List milked the emotional factor to the hilt and Saving Private Ryan was part-action film while it doled out its history.  Make no mistake, Spielberg's trademark schmaltz is there, albeit in very subtle and sparse amounts.  Lincoln requires an investment from an audience not normally asked of them.  

The only upset Spielberg has to worry about is Ben Affleck, who, up until now, was the frontrunner and had campaigned HARD. The former Oscar winner (for screenwriting) is playing the mild-mannered, amiable, and dutiful husband and father in front of the paparazzi. He wants that directing Oscar for his crowd-pleasing action-drama Argo (with a Hollywood bent), also depicting another time in U.S. history. The setting is closer to the present and the events aren't as lofty compared to Lincoln (the future of a country on the brink of collapse that may determine the future of Western Civilization verses a diplomatic nightmare set in the Middle East). Movie-stars turned directors have won for less and, in another year, Affleck's chances would be a slam dunk. Robert Redford, Warren Beatty, Kevin Costner, Mel Gibson, Eastwood, even TV icon Ron Howard, have all won directing Oscars. In fact, if ReOscaring directors was a thing of mid-20th-century, Oscaring movie stars was a thing of the late 20th-century. It has been years since Gibson, Howard, or even Eastwood won. Affleck would like to think that it is his time. Is it? He has impressed audiences and critics with his first two features. The aforementioned movie stars all won and/or were nominated for their first or second films. Indeed, Affleck has a shot, but luck and timing may have Spielberg eclipsing his chances.  The race boils down to those two.  

Or, am I just speaking too much in the moment?  Lincoln is still fresh.  Ago has been out for over a month now and enjoyed its time in the sun.  Could the pendulum swing back in its direction?  Perhaps the race is between the old guard (Lincoln) verses the new (Argo).  But, we know how that has panned out the last few years, don't we?  

And while we can't finalize the likely nominees, the final five is starting to firm up.

1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (for the win)
2. Ben Affleck, Argo
3. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
4. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
5. Tom Hooper, Les Misérables

If Les Mis doesn't pan out, the fifth slot could go to an early favorite that has since lost momentum, Paul Thomas Anderson, (The Master) or Michael Haneke (Amour), who has yet to open his film to American audiences. Unless Zero Dark Thirty and/or Django Unchained blow everybody away, I'm not sure previous winner Kathryn Bigelow (who may be under her own shadow of being over-rewarded recently) and Quentin Tarantino will figure into the race.  There are a couple of other possibilities I threw in only because I haven't seen the films yet.  Silver Linings may also peter out, but I doubt that will figure in if Harvey puts all of his weight behind it.

6. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

7. Juan Antonio Bayona, The Impossible
8. Michael Haneke, Amour

9. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

10. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

11. Gus Van Sant, Promised Land

What do you think?  Is The Master finished?  Or does Anderson have enough good-will with the AMPAS for them to sneak in his box-office underperformer ala The Tree of Life? 

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