From a number perspective, they aren't on the side of Les Misérables. But like 2002, if Les Mis is successful enough from both a commercial and critical standpoint, it wouldn't be unheard of for Hollywood to honor it with Best Picture and bestow the directing award to Steven Spielberg or Ben Affleck. Still, we probably won't really know until at least Christmas Day when it opens. Though The Film Experience hints that word is good. See towards bottom of post how 2012 seems to be following 2002's template.
As far as the rest, Life of Pi has clearly established itself in the Top Five now that it has opened. And by the sheer fact that Harvey Weinstein is behind Silver Linings Playbook, at the very most, it may also reside in the Top Five (Dave Karger eat your heart out). Beyond that, I'm befuddled by how Oscar pundits are underestimating Moonrise Kingdom. It's a critical darling that made nearly $50M at the box-office. It's director Wes Anderson's most accessible film to date and a prime opportunity to honor one of his live-action features beyond the screenplay category. Perhaps The Royal Tenenbaums would have made a Field of Ten in 2001 in retrospect? Perhaps not? Eleven years later, we're probably facing a greater dearth in commercially successful, critically respected films, which only improves Kingdom's chances, no?
What about the art-house films that have been successful to smaller degrees? If the last three years have taught us anything, it's that there is only so much room for these movies. In 2009, seven of the Field of Ten were well on their way to grossing healthy numbers pre-nominations. On the other hand, eventual winner The Hurt Locker and nominees An Education and A Serious Man grossed roughly $8.5M - $12.5M pre-nominations (and not a sizable amount thereafter). RT rating range from 89% to 97%, and MC 79 to 94, with Man having the benefit of the Coen brother's fanbase.
In 2010, again, seven even more financially successful films made it to the Field of Ten. The remainders (The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, and Winter's Bone) grossed $6.5M - $20.8M pre-nominations, and enjoy an RT rating ranging from 93% - 94%, MC 82 to 90; 127 Hours having been directed by recent winner Danny Boyle.
In 2011, of the nine nominees, six of the films grossed a decent amount (even if they came no where near their budget like Hugo), leaving three that initially underwhelmed at the box-office, with their own very irregular set of stats and circumstances. The eventual winner The Artist (98% RT, 89 MC) didn't especially post crazy-good numbers, yet, once nominations were announced and it was in the middle of expansion, Harvey Weinstein managed to maintain an incredible consistency. He got a lot of mileage from his efforts and it paid off in the end. The Scott Rudin produced (heads up, he's behind Kingdom) Stephen Daldry-directed Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close was the big surprise nominee last year with 47% RT and 46 MC (we're talking The Blind Side level reviews!). Its box office numbers weren't that special and it went wide the weekend before Oscar nominations were announced. Timing was just about everything with that film. The Tree of Life (84% RT, 85 MC) grossed only $13.3M earlier in the year, but was assisted by a core of support for director Terrence Malick.
I probably have to temper my prognosticating The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild, AND Amour all having a chance of getting in together. The Master has the benefit of Weinstein, as well as strong support for director Paul Thomas Anderson. Beasts would have to be a Winter's Bone type situation. Amour, admittedly, is more of a long shot. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo failing to get in last year makes me think The Dark Knight Rises' chances are limited. It will all boil down to if the AMPAS want to recognize the finale of the trilogy, because they failed to nominate the second installment. Fox Searchlight is no stranger to the Oscar game, sometimes getting two entries into the Best Picture field. I imagine most of its energy will be behind Beasts, but will they have to choose how much effort to invest in The Sessions, The Best Marigold Exotic Hotel, and Hitchcock? Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained will stand to benefit from large grosses, critical word of mouth, and studio push. On paper, they still both seem quite possible. I'm not entirely sold on Flight, but the studio is shooting for the stars. Could a well-grossing Denzel Washington vehicle be enough to get in?
1. Les Misérables (wild card)
2. Lincoln 90 RT / 86 MC
3. Argo 95 / 86
4. Life of Pi 87 /78
5. Silver Linings Playbook. 89 / 82
6. Moonrise Kingdom 94 / 84
7. The Master 85 / 86
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild. 85 / 86
--The Bubble--
9. Flight 77 / 76
10. Zero Dark Thirty (wild card)
11. Django Unchained (wild card)
12. The Impossible 87 / 89 (limited reviews)
13. Amour 92 / 91
14. The Sessions 94 / 80
15. The Dark Knight Rises 87 / 78
16. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 77 / 62
17. The Perks of Being a Wallflower 86 / 67
18. Skyfall 92 / 81
19. Promised Land (wild card)
20. Hitchcock 61 / 56
21. Cloud Atlas 64 / 55
22. Anna Karenina 62 / 64
23. The Hobbit ("wild" card)
Current Prediction List
Best Picture: Les Misérables
Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Original Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Adapted Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Editing: William Goldenberg, Argo
Cinematography: Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
Production Design: Les Misérables
Costume Design: Paco Delgado, Les Misérables
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Makeup: Cloud Atlas
Song: "Suddenly," Les Misérables
Score: Jonny Greenwood, The Master
Sound Editing: Life of Pi
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Foreign Language Film: Amour
Animated Feature: ParaNorman
Documentary: West of Memphis
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