Best Supporting Actress 2012: Anne's Still Winning, But Who Will She Be Up Against?

Since the last time I posted about Anne Hathaway still winning an Oscar early next year, Les Misérables has screened for specially-coordinated audiences as well as critics.  The sentiment has been quite positive, with some even speculating that it may have overtaken Lincoln in the Best Picture race. There are also clips available from what may be the final cut.  People still debate whether or not Hathaway will win or even be nominated, which is to be expected.  This is a Oscar race.  Winners CAN'T be set in stone when they haven't even been NOMINATED yet, can they?  Oh, but they can.  It's not because I am a fanboy of Hathaway and/or Les Misérables.  Embarrassingly, I've never seen a production of the show.  I went to college while it was still riding fairly high, or, at least, was fresh enough in the minds of its fans or relevant enough to constantly populate the discussion of my college choir peers (I sang for one year, but providing a warm body and some volume would be more accurate descriptors; I went to a small school and they were simply short basses).  I'm familiar with only a handful of the songs, most particularly "Master of the House," which sometimes plays a part in the annual singalong I attend up north with family.  And, I've been very clear with my ambivalence towards Hathaway.

But, to use a tired expression, the unjinxable writing indeed is on the wall and has been there for some time.  It's not a matter of being right, either.  It's just so ... obvious.  I mean, we're talking about Hollywood here.  They aren't exactly in the business of being unpredictable most of the time.  With Hathaway, it's the right role (there's singing, it's live, and, hello, Catherine Zeta-Jones and Jennifer Hudson in the last ten years), right movie, right time in her career, right amount of paying dues, right amount of respected performances, right amount of box-office viability, right personal sacrifices (lopping off her hair, eating those oatmeal squares to drop those last of the twenty-five pounds), right personal elements (recent marriage), etc.  Ecstatic early word (which can always morph into something else entirely), and trailers that have been making many creams their pants (including myself) for months now.  Did I cover it all?  And, all of this, even if the movie underperforms.  I'm sure I'm missing something here.  Perhaps it's doubt, because there is none.  And, I WILL double-down even if things ever start looking slightly grim (which doesn't seem likely, but who knows), because, LOL, I love being right.  I wish I could place a bet of a lot of money on this, because I could really use the return on investment.  There is no tacit endorsement here of her performance (which I haven't seen) or person.  If Hathaway fails to win, the developing narrative (which, granted, I am perpetuating ... but, again, just by the circumstances, I would just be shocked if she didn't win) will have made a fool out of her (and me, but I think I like tempting the possibility) and I just don't see that happening.  And there really is no reaching for Nate Silver glory here, as I haven't been the only one making this prediction early on.  Though, I have to admit, the build-up to her victory has been fortunately measured, non?

The point of this post is really: who will fill up those four other slots?  Last time I posted, I was certain about Amy Adams (The Master) and Helen Hunt (The Sessions), like most, and threw in Samantha Barks (Les Misérables) and Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) to round out the category.  Hunt is still Top Three, along with new addition Sally Field (Lincoln).  I can't imagine that changing, but we'll see what the critic and award bodies have in store.  As of yet, Hunt and Fields are Hathaway's strongest competition: two former winners whom the AMPAS are in no rush to ReOscar.  I would still place Adams in the #4 slot, but not entirely certain of her chances.  HOWEVER, surprisingly, I would retain Barks.  Had I posted a week or two ago, I may have left her off.  I found the promotional team behind Les Misérables was initially playing her down in order to play up Hathaway (and I even got a little conspiracy theory about it).  Now, ahem, if Barks knocks it out of the park, which is quite possible, seeing how she has lived the role on stage for quite some time, we could clearly witness a voter split, prompting me to imagine that somehow she is left out of the race to avoid the possibility.  But, I've bored myself, as this is all meaningless until we all have, at the very least, actually seen the film.

Weaver is still a possibility, because don't underestimate the power of The Weinstein, etc.  Her performance is quite understated.  Gold Derby has Maggie Smith in the fifth spot.  And there is always the possibility of surprise ... Amanda Seyfried, Kerry Washington, Frances McDormand, Jennifer Ehle, Pauline Collins, Rosemarie Dewitt (Promised Land or her technically lead turn in Your Sister's Sister), one of the gals from Hyde Park on the Hudson or Anna Karenina.  And, oh, yeah, a realistic shot Emily Blunt (Looper) and a seemingly far-fetched one (Ann Dowd).

I'll shut up now.  Thank you for putting up with me. It feels kind of lame prognosticating at this point, especially when there are others who have seen every film in contention. #jealous

[UPDATE 12/1: Looks like I spoke too soon]