Best Lead / Supporting Actor Oscar 2013 - July Predictions

Well, we certainly got our first lock (if there is one) in Robert Redford, after J.C. Chandor's All Is Lost debuted at Cannes.  The Hollywood Legend received rave career-best reviews, and it has been almost four decades since his first and only acting nomination for The Sting.  Additionally, Tom Hanks (Castaway) and Spencer Tracy (The Old Man and the Sea) managed to get into the field in the past with similar material.  The pensive one-man tale was a festival favorite which certainly holds strong chances at making it into major categories for 2013, including Best Picture. The writer/director already has a screenwriting nod for his last film Margin Call, which was also put out by the same studio, Lionsgate.  The distributor also released Mud at Cannes the previous year, which has turned out to be one of the few arthouse hits of 2013 thus far.  The coming-of-age drama received almost universal acceptance on Rotten Tomatoes, though its rank on other major aggregates is considerably lower.  Still, Liongate has two seemingly solid contenders.  Like Chandor, Mud's Jeff Nichols is also an up-and-coming filmmaker and may even be looking at an original screenplay nomination for himself.  Still, Lost's chances, at minimum, seem to boil down to a bid for Redford's third Oscar (after directing Ordinary People in 1980, and winning an honorary statue in 2002).  The only obstacle I can see the film facing is a comparison to Gravity, but that's really a stretch.

I decided some time ago that Matthew McConaughey's emaciated AIDS drugstore cowboy has to be Too Baity to Fail.  Focus Features has so little on its plate at this point (that could all change once the Fall Festivals hit), that a nod for the Texas actor seems imminent (they also have The Place Beyond the Pines which made a respectable critical and commercial show in its own right already).

Remember a few months ago when the possibilities were more endless, and though there was little chance, there were five seemingly Best Actor contenders who happened to be black?  Well, there still are, but the chances of even two of those men getting in seem the best possible scenario at this point.  For one, Harvey Weinstein is behind the majority of them (Michael B. Jordan, Idris Elba, both of Forest Whitaker's films) and there is only so much he can do, especially when it's not his strongest category.  I suppose I have to count 42's Chadwick Bosman out at this point.  Jordan already has a decent base of festival reviews for Fruitvale Station, and even though there are those who believe (and have seen) Chiwetel Ejiofor has a long road ahead of him with 12 Years a Slave, I still fancy him being a contender to some degree.

There is plenty of chatter about Leonardo DiCaprio, because, well, he's Leonardo DiCaprio, and he's teaming up with Martin Scorsese for a fifth time.  There are those that have compared The Wolf of Wall Street as being a white-collar Goodfellas.  After watching the first trailer, as well as skimming the entire 500+ pages of the memoir, I have to concur.  And, if it is, would a retread really earn equal or greater accolades from The Academy?  I have to wonder.  I dropped Wolf from my Top Nine slightly, only to add it back in for July, though I'm tempted to leave it out entirely.  I'm trying to be better about not making any rash leaps up or down, so it'll probably just rest at the "bottom" of the top until the film finally hits.  I can't imagine why I would be bullish on any other category for it, including Best Actor.  It certainly is possible that DiCaprio might end up pulling out a career-defining performance with his narcissistic financial trader and swindler and erase all remnants of his lackluster turn with Django Unchained; though, I wonder if the AMPAS will really go for it.

From a recent measure, they seem to like their antagonists broad (The Silence of the Lambs, Misery), unruly/bloodthirsty (The Last Kind of Scotland, There Will Be Blood, No Country For Old Men, The Dark Knight, Inglorious Basterds) and/or unrepentant (Wall Street, Training Day), ambiguous (Reversal of Fortune), insecure (Michael Clayton), or damaged/handicapped to the point of sympathy (Monster, The Reader, Precious).  The moral ambiguity seems to work better with women.  And it didn't pan out for him with Catch Me If You Can, an arguably battier role.  People might try to trot out Michael Douglas' Gordan Gekko, but there was also a distance between villain and audience with the Charlie Sheen character, torn between temptation and what he was taught.  Interestingly enough, the critical and commercial box-office bomb The Bonfire of the Vanities just a few years later also examined its self-designated Master of the Universe from afar.  These men of excess were cautionary tales judged for their lack of humanity.  They weren't someone to aspire to and serve as a vicarious outlet.  To me, on paper, Wolf seems like a showier Henry Hill at best interested in exploring the psychology of gluttonous man who wasted millions of dollars on drugs, prostitutes, and taking advantage of other people.  Is this something the somewhat recent 99% might not be interested in indulging?  Or will this be an iconic, entertaining examination of the 21st-Century (er, 20th-Century) unchecked male ego?  Who knows.  We'll have to wait and see.  The conventional wisdom seems to be that if DiCaprio could almost get into the race with that stinker J. Edgar, he should have no problem here.  I can't come up with enough of a convincing argument to the contrary, but I'm pretty bearish on his chances right now.  He's a bubble-pick.

As for the other slots, some are thinking Christian Bale, and the transformation alone supports that (especially if he channels his real-life counterpart in the original script).  His character's similarities to DiCaprio's may or may not be a disadvantage.  Both of their chances may rise or fall with how their film is received overall.  And, there are other possibilities.  Oscar Isaac has strong reviews in a likely Best Picture nominee.  And, depending on his campaign, Bruce Dern might muscle his way into the more competitive lead category.  God help us if The Butler gains traction, but with Harvey in its corner, the obviousness of his release strategy in the context of The Help can't be underestimated.  We first need to see the receipts.  And, though I predicted this is going to be a trainwreck, I can't presently now say it doesn't have a chance at a nod or two (yuck, I feel so unclean after typing that).

I like a little variety, and if Redford, McConaughey, and DiCaprio/Bale all pan out, it wouldn't be unheard of for two relative unknowns sneaking into the race.

Best Actor
1 (+19). Robert Redford, All Is Lost
2 (+3). Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
3 (-1). Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
4 (+2). Christian Bale, American Hustle
5 (-4). Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis

6 (+11). Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
7 (-3). Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave 
8 (--). Forrest Whitaker, The Butler
9 (+14). Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate
10 (-7). Bruce Dern, Nebraska (supporting?)

11 (-1). Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
12 (-6). George Clooney, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
13 (-6). Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
14 (-3). Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby
15 (-6). Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
16 (-3). Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
17 (-1). Tye Sheridan, Mud (supporting?)
18 (-4). Matt Damon, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
19 (+15). Forrest Whitaker, Black Nativity
20 (+4). Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man

21 (+12). Michael Pena, Chavez
22 (+3). Daniel Brühl, Rush
23 (+5). Colin Firth, The Railway Man
24 (+5). Colin Firth, Devil's Knot
25 (-13). Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
26 (+16). Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
27 (+18). Robert DeNiro, Malavita
28 (+21). Joaquin Phoenix, Her
29 (+8). Casey Affleck, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
30 (-11). Josh Brolin, Labor Day (supporting?)

31 (-4). Hugh Jackman, Prisoners
32 (--). Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
33 (-12). Miles Teller, The Spectacular Now
34 (+10). Josh Brolin, Oldboy
35 (-4). Ralph Fiennes, The Invisible Woman
36 (+10). Chris Hemsworth, Rush (supporting?)
37 (+6). Chadwick Boseman, 42
38 (-16). Ali Mosaffa, The Past
39 (-13). Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks (supporting?)
40 (-10). Will Forte, Nebraska (supporting?)

This is a tough category to call for just about every slot, if not all of them.  Who knows where Bruce Dern will end up.  It could go either way.  I really don't know what I'm talking about, as I haven't seen the film, and there are those who insist that he's strictly a lead and there is no way around it for the studio to commit category fraud.  I guess it's the tempered reviews that have got me second-guessing that notion.  With all this talk about villainy earlier, perhaps Michael Fassbender may find himself finally competing in the big leagues.  This is also the category Harvey Weinstein has the least play in, so, I foresee him getting behind at least one of his August men.  I've decided to suddenly switch out McGregor and Cooper for Cumberbatch, without any rhyme or reason, other than it's an unusual role and the actor is super-hot right now.  It's still hard for me to imagine the AMPAS not nominating Walt Disney as played by Tom Hanks.  And, will strong reviews and a potential hit finally get Sam Rockwell some due recognition?

Supporting Actor
1 (New). Bruce Dern, Nebraska (lead?)
2 (+5). Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave
3 (+7). Benedict Cumberbatch, August: Osage County
4 (-3). Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks (lead?)
5 (+6). Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back

6 (+8). Matt Damon, The Monuments Men (lead?)
7 (+5). Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
8 (--). Josh Brolin, Labor Day (lead?)
9 (New). Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
10 (+24). Jeremy Renner, American Hustle

11 (+11). Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man (lead?)
12 (+2). George Clooney, The Monuments Men (lead?)
13 (New). Steve Coogan, Philomena (lead?)
14 (-1). John Goodman, The Monuments Men
15 (New). Daniel Brühl, The Fifth Estate
16 (+7). Matthew McConaughey, Mud
17 (-15). Chris Cooper, August: Osage County

18 (-14). Ewan McGregor, August: Osage County
19 (+2). Chris Hemsworth, Rush 
20 (-15). Colin Farrell, Saving Mr. Banks (lead?)

21 (+10). Javier Bardem, The Counselor
22 (-3). Tim Roth, Grace of Monaco

23 (New). Sean Mahon, Philomena 
24 (New). Jean Dujardin, The Monuments Men
25 (+5). George Clooney, Gravity
26 (-6). James Franco, Spring Breakers
27 (+10). Joaquin Phoenix, The Immigrant
28 (-19). Steve Carell, Foxcatcher  (lead?)
29 (-13). Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
30 (-2). Harrison Ford, 42

31 (-1). Woody Harrelson, Out of the Furnace
32 (+4). Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners
33 (-1). Ben Foster, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
34 (-31). Will Forte, Nebraska (lead?)
35 (-6). Adam Scott, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
36 (-3). Terrence Howard, Prisoners
37 (-10). Tahir Rahim, The Past
38 (-13). Benedict Cumberbatch, Twelve Years a Slave
39 (-4). Matthew McConaughey, The Wolf of Wall Street
40 (-8). Brad Pitt, The Counselor