Best Lead / Supporting Actress Oscar 2013 - July Predictions

Well, this has been a truly crazy year for the Best Actress race (and it hasn't really gotten underway, yet).  Last year, there were seemingly so few options.  This year, there's a decent amount, but, oddly, they're all mostly former winners, whether in the lead or supporting race.  And, as history has dictated, there are so many that can fit in, especially leads.  But rules are meant to be broken, right?  Still, Meryl Streep is a lock.  She has been since she was cast.  The question is: how will her costar Julia Roberts be campaigned.  She has gotten strong early word in the less showy role, and has the greatest arc.  Will/can she be campaigned as supporting?  Thanks to a few others, I'm having my doubts again.  But, if she's campaigned as lead, I just don't see her getting in.  Nicole Kidman probably figured The Academy wouldn't nominate her unless she classed it up.  It's just hard for me to imagine that after going through all the trouble of getting Grace of Monaco off the ground, she's going to fall short.  She wants this.  She has all of her ducks in a row.  I guess the only question is if her guy Harvey Weinstein has sabotaged her chances with too many candidates under his guide.  He already had a full plate, yet he still laid down $6.5M for Philomena, a huge vote of confidence if there was one, which speaks to Judi Dench's chances.  Their collaborations have resulted in five nominations and one win.  Can he pull a hat-trick?  He has done it before.  But that still leaves the non-Weinstein-backed former winners like Cate Blanchett, whose film opens in less than a month, and Emma Thompson, who is viewed by some as unambitious when it comes to campaigning.

It's quite possible that every nominee in the category this year already has an Oscar or two or three under her belt.  I'm still holding out that we'll have one who doesn't, perhaps never even having reached the nomination level.  But, then, personal bias gets in the way.  Obviously, I would love to see Rachel McAdams or Elizabeth Olsen get nominated, especially for stellar work.  But, it's wishful thinking in a vacuum with nothing to replace it.

Lead Actress
1 (+1). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
2 (-1). Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
3 (+26). Judi Dench, Philomena 
4 (+3). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine 
5 (+9). Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man

6 (-2). Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
7 (New). Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color
8 (-2). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (supporting?)
9 (+6). Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
10 (-7). Naomi Watts, Diana

11 (-3). Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse
12 (New). Amy Adams, American Hustle (supporting?)
13 (+22). Dakota Fanning, Effie
14 (New). Kirsten Dunst, The Two Faces of January
15 (-2). Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
16. (-5). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers; 2014?
17 (+1). Sandra Bullock, Gravity
18 (-9). Kate Winslet, Labor Day
19 (+12). Jessica Brown Findlay, Winter's Tale
20 (-15). Zoe Saldana, Nina

21 (-4). Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
22 (+3). Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby
23 (+9). Annette Bening, The Face of Love
24 (New). Bérénice Bejo, The Past
25 (-1). Rebecca Hall, A Promise 
26 (+14). Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
27 (-11). Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
28 (-7). Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
29 (-10). Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
30 (-8). Rooney Mara, Ain't Them Bodies Saints

31 (+7). Robin Weigert, Concussion
32 (-12). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
33 (+3). Julianne Hough, Paradise
34 (-11). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (supporting?)
35 (+6). Mia Wasikowska, Tracks
36 (New). Jessica Chastain, Miss Julie (perhaps a late 2013 surprise)
37 (+7). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot (supporting?)
38 (-10). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (supporting?)
39 (-27). Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace
40 (-1). Kristen Wiig, Girl Most Likely (formerly Imogene)

41 (+1). Lily Rabe, The First (2014?)
42 (-5). Emmanuelle Seigner, Venus in Fur
43 (-10). Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
44 (-10). Michelle Pfeiffer, The Family (supporting?)
45 (-2). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His
46 (-1). Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall

46 (--). Robin Wright, Adore
47 (--). Mia Wasikowska, Madame Bovary
48 (--). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
49 (+6). Scarlett Johansson, Under the Skin
50 (+1). Lake Bell, In a World ...
51 (+2). Hilary Swank, You're Not You
53 (+1). Keri Russell, Austenland 

The supporting race is filled with more polarizing options currently.  There are some indicators that Cameron Diaz could finally experience her big Oscar break.  She's directed by Ridley Scott who isn't immune from getting some of his actors nominations.  And, while he doesn't have any major heat coming off from any of his most recent movies, he does have a sporadicly consistent history with the AMPAS over the last three decades.  The role, primarily is a doozy.  It plays to Diaz' strengths on a couple of levels, so, to me, there is a high probability that she will deliver the goods.  The bigger question is the part, which is hard to discuss without getting into spoilery territory.  But, it's safe to say it's a very sexually confident role, which doesn't win favor very often with The Academy.  And, the archetype she plays also doesn't have a very good track record.  Couple that with Diaz' lack of nomination history, and her case begins to fall apart.  However, I find personal bias clouding my judgment, and it's hard to discern just how genuine her probabilities are.  I find myself impressing upon her long record of commercial viability.  She's one of the few female Hollywood stars that have an established drawing power, as well as having opened a movie on her own (Bad Teacher) to high returns. This may mean very little ultimately to the awards circuit, as she's not Julia Roberts, Reese Witherspoon, or Sandra Bullock, but I just find her underrated and would love to see her get a little recognition.  But, hey, if The Globes wouldn't even recognize her for a slam-dunk comedic performance in Teacher (they went with Jodie Foster and Kate Winslet in the little seen, and unimpressive Carnage; and it's not like they haven't gone for Roberts, Witherspoon, Bullock, or Meg Ryan in lesser films in the past), than perhaps the plume really is off her rose.

Another polarizing option is Oprah Winfrey.  She was welcomed by the AMPAS in the much-nominated The Color Purple (1985) before she became an international media mogul.  When she gave the world "her baby" in Jonathan Demme's Beloved in 1998, audiences, critics, and The Academy rejected it.  Now, the director of Precious Lee Daniels is back with the very baity The Butler.  It looks like a steaming pile of something else (I guaranteed it wouldn't be a player; now, I may have to eat crow), but, The Help looked like a Lifetime movie in its initial trailer and it did very well for itself.  On one hand, the stunt casting of several generations of presidents and first ladies gives one pause, but, then you have Harvey Weinstein trying to recreate The Help's success with an obvious release date strategy exactly two years later to the weekend for a film with black leads, and servant relationships to their employer.  Winfrey, however, has already recently received an honorary Oscar.  And, unlike Cher, for instance, the media personality hasn't been building up industry good-will towards a possible win.  I don't know.  I'd bet on Diaz before Winfrey, because I'm stubborn.

The safest choice, held by many is four-times-nominated Amy Adams, because director David O. Russell has gotten her (as well as many others) a very recent nod.  Some seem to believe she could go lead, though I haven't heard one convincing argument that isn't based on some fantasy scenario.  If they threw the original script out the window and completely beefed up her role, than it's a possibility. But no one has actually come out and said that yet.  A more ambiguous situation is Julia Roberts.  While her Barbara Weston in August is clearly a lead (she will likely have the most screen time, the biggest arc, and has solid word from people who have seen early screenings), she'll be overshadowed by the showier performance from her elder Meryl Streep, who is most definitely getting a lead nod.  Further complicating the situation, is distributor TWC with obligations to both Best Actress frontrunners Philomena and Grace of Monaco.  Not that Roberts ever plays second banana to other women, I can imagine her willing to do it for some reason, though just how Weinstein is going to commit category fraud in order to get it accomplished is beyond me.  She's not a kid or grandpa, which would make it an easier sell.  It would be weird for her to not get flat-out nominated, but, I guess it's what I'm almost saying here.  Though if Dench or Kidman falter, Roberts would quite easily slip in.

The surest choice, at this point, is recent winner Octavia Spencer.  Strong reviews in a Weinstein picture that is very likely to land in many major categories gives her an edge that no one else holds at present.  Blue Jasmine will be coming out soon, and the excitement the trailer has generated for Cate Blanchett has rubbed off a little on Sally Hawkins, who won a Golden Globe five years ago for her superb work in happy-go-lucky, but narrowly missed out on Oscar recognition.

Supporting Actress
1  (+3). Amy Adams, American Hustle
2 (--). Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale
3 (-2). Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
4. (+1). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor 
5 (+6). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men

6 (-3). June Squibb, Nebraska
7 (+14). Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
8 (+6). Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
9. (-3). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (lead?)
10 (-2). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (lead?)

11 (+2). Alison Janney, The Way, Way Back
12 (+8). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
13 (+5). Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
14 (+8). Annette Bening, Girl Most Likely
15 (New). Carice Van Houten, The Fifth Estate
16 (+9). Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyer's Club

17 (+2). Annie Rose Buckley, Saving Mr. Banks
18 (+38). Nicole Kidman, Stoker
19 (-2). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
20 (-8). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (lead?)

21 (+10). Julianne Nicholson, August: Osage County
22 (-13). Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
23 (+6). Robin Wright, A Most Wanted Man
24 (+8). Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
25 (-9). Rosie Perez, The Counselor
26 (+9). Lupito Nyong'O, Twelve Years a Slave
27 (+13). Adepero Udeye, Twelve Years a Slave
28 (+18). Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
29 (+18). Jessica Lange, Thérèse
30 (-2). Viola Davis, Prisoners

31 (+5). Elizabeth Olsen, Oldboy
32 (+6). Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
33 (-3). Isla Fischer, The Great Gatsby
34 (-10). Helen Bonham Carter, The Young and Prodigious Spivet
35 (+7). Mario Bello, Prisoners
36 (-2). Sienna Miller, Foxcatcher
37 (+14). Amy Adams, Lullaby
38 (+3). Juliette Lewis, August: Osage County
39 (-16). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
40 (+5). Abigail Breslin, August: Osage County

41 (+9). Amy Adams, Her
42 (-5). Melissa Leo, Prisoners
43 (+11). Gwyneth Paltrow, Thanks for Sharing
44 (-17). Pauline Burlet, The Past
45 (-19). Penélope Cruz, The Counselor
46 (-31). Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher
47 (-37). Kristin Scott Thomas, Only God Forgives
48 (+5). Helen Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
49 (-1). Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
50 (-7). Reese Witherspoon, Mud