Best Director / Screenplays / Etc Oscar 2013 - July Predictions

So, I'm finally wrapping up my July predictions.  I wanted to get the rest of the Big Eight out of the way, as well as add a small section of nine more feature length categories.  You can visit the latest predictions for picture here, actresses here, and actors here.  I plan on doing another set of predictions in September, but, if things don't change that much and/or I get lazy, I might postpone it until October.  There hasn't been too much of a shakeup since the last prediction right before all the major players at Cannes were taken into consideration, followed by the settling-in period.  Most of the Fall trailers have debuted (Monuments, Hustle, and Walter Mitty immediately spring to mind as those missing, but I suppose they have another month or so to put something up), but the festival lineups for Telluride, Venice, and Toronto should be announced shortly, which should clear up some of the curiosity regarding such projects as Foxcatcher, Dallas Buyers Club, A Most Wanted Man, Devil's Knot, Thérèse and The Railway Man, among others.  For the time being, I'm going to go with Fruitvale Station as the frontrunner until I have good reason to replace it with something else.  It has the reviews, an emotional story, it shows the potential to have the appropriate box-office, it's backed by the King of the Awards Circuit, and, additionally, it draws parallels to an unfortunate tragedy that has received nationwide attention the last few weeks.  It also fits the profile of an unassuming smaller film, which hasn't been uncommon in Best Picture winners of the recent past.  With so many films having a black-character focus (TWC's The B*****, Mandela: The Long Walk Home, as well as 12 Years a Slave, and Black Nativity), it may also end up leading the greater narrative this awards seasons.  You might note that the Best Director category may be brought to you by the letter C this year.

Best Director
1 (+2). Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
2 (--). George Clooney, The Monuments Men
3 (+4). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
4 (--). John Wells, August: Osage County
5 (+5). Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave

6 (+2). Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
7 (-2). David O. Russell, American Hustle
8 (New). Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue Is the Warmest Color
9 (+19). Justin Chadwick, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
10 (New).  J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost

11 (-10). Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
12 (New). Stephen Frears, Philomena
13 (-2). Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
14 (+10). Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
15 (-6). Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
16 (-1). John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
17 (-11). Alexander Payne, Nebraska
18 (-9). Asghar Farhadi, The Past
19 (-1). Bill Condon, The Fifth Estate
20 (+6). Ron Howard, Rush

21 (-7). Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
22 (-3). Anton Corbijn, A Most Wanted Man
23 (-6). Jeff Nichols, Mud
24 (New). Brian Percival, The Book Thief
25 (-2). Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
26 (New). Peter Berg, Lone Survivor
27 (+2). Atom Egoyan, Devil's Knot
28 (-3). Jonathan Teplitzky, The Railway Man
29 (-17). Ridley Scott, The Counselor
30 (+20). Lee Daniels, The B*****

31 (+7). Spike Jonze, Her
32 (+3). Peter Landesman, Parkland
33 (-3). Neill Blomkamp, Elysium
34 (-18). Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
35 (-14). Akiva Goldman's, Winter's Tale
36 (-16). Baz Luhrmann, The Great Gatsby
37 (-15). Spike Lee, Oldboy
38 (+9). Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
39 (+9). Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman
40 (-9). James Gray, The Immigrant

41 (-14). Jason Reitman, Labor Day
42 (-8). Olivier Dahan, Grace of Monaco
43 (-10). Derek Cianfrance, The Place Beyond the Pines
44 (-8). Carl Rinsch, 47 Ronin
45 (-8). Susanne Bier, Serena
46 (-14). Denis Villeneuve, Prisoners
47 (-1). Kar Wai Wong, The Grandmaster

Best Original Screenplay
1 (+1). Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
2 (+11). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (adapted?)
3 (+2). Eric Singer, American Hustle.  Script Review.
4 (+8). Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
5 (-4). Bob Nelson, Nebraska

6 (-2). Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks.  Script Review.
7 (--). Alfonso & Jonás Cuarón, Gravity.  Script Review.
8 (--). Jeff Nichols, Mud
9 (New). Peter Berg, Lone Survivor
10 (-4). Cormac McCarthy, The Counselor.  Script Review.

11 (-8). Asghar Farhadi & Massoumeh Lahidji, The Past
12 (New). J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost
13 (+1). Peter Morgan, Rush
14 (-4). Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Way, Way Back
15 (--). Spike Jonze, Her
16 (+1). Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
17 (-1). Tobias Lindholm & Thomas Vinterberg, The Hunt
18 (--). Arash Amel, Grace of Monaco
19 (+5). Peter Landesman, Parkland
20 (New). Frances Ha

21 (+9). Lee Daniels & Danny Strong, The B***** ("adapted"?)
22 (+9). Derek Cianfrance, et al, The Place Beyond the Pines
23 (+2). Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring ("adapted"?)
24 (-15). E. Max Frye & Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher.  Script Review.
25 (-14). David Lowery, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
26 (-6). Neill Blomkamp, Elysium.  Script Review.
27 (-5). James Gray & Ric Menello, The Immigrant
28 (-9). Stephen Jeffreys, Diana
29 (-8). Aaron Guzikowski, Prisoners.  Script Review.
30 (-2). Chris Morgan, et al, 47 Ronin

31 (-5). Travis Beacham & Guillermo del Toro, Pacific Rim.  Script Review.
32 (-5). Brian Koppelman & David Levien, Runner, Runner
33 (-4). Scott Cooper & Brad Ingelsby, Out of the Furnace.  Script Review.
34 (-2). Brian Helgeland, 42
35 (-12). Nicolas Winding Refn, Only God Forgives

Best Adapted Screenplay
1 (--). Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
2 (+1). George Clooney & Grant Heslov, The Monuments Men
3 (+1). Steve McQueen & John Ridley, Twelve Years a Slave
4 (+3). Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
5 (New). Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope, Philomena

6 (--). William Nicholson, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
7 (+2). Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
8 (-6). Steve Conrad, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
9 (New). Abdellatif Kechiche & Ghalia Lacroix, Blue Is the Warmest Color
10 (New). Markus Zusak, Michael Petroni, The Book Thief

11 (-6). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (original?)
12 (+6). Josh Singer, The Fifth Estate
13 (+1). Charlie Stratton, Thérèse
14 (-6). Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
15 (+1). Andrew Bovell, A Most Wanted Man
16 (+5). Frank Cottrell Boyce & Andy Paterman, The Railway Man
17 (-7). Baz Luhrmann & Craig Pearce, The Great Gatsby
18 (+1). Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
19 (+1). Paul Harris Boardman & Scott Derrickson, Devil's Knot
20 (-8). Akiva Goldman's, Winter's Tale

21 (-8). Lee Daniels & Danny Strong, The B***** ("original"?)
22 (-11). Jason Reitman, Labor Day.  Script Review.
23 (-8). Abi Morgan, The Invisible Woman
24 (New). Hossein Amini, The Two Faces of January 
25 (-8). Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Spectacular Now
26 (-2). Mark Protosevich, Oldboy
27 (-5). Christopher Kyle, Serena
28 (-2). Joon-ho Bong & Kelly Masterson, Snowpiercer
29 (-6). Luc Besson, The Family
30 (-5). Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring (original?)

Editing
Monuments / Gravity / Captain Phillips / Hustle / 12 Years
alts: Fruitvale / August / Llewyn / Wolf / Rush / Lost / Estate

Production Design
Monuments / Oz / Hobbit / Gatsby / 12 Years
alts: Gravity / Rush / Mandela / Elysium / Black Nativity / Banks / Hustle

Costume Design
Gatsby / Monuments / The Book Thief / Oz / Monaco
alts: Railway Man / The B***** / Llewyn / Invisible Woman / Effie Gray

Makeup and Hair
Walter Mitty / Lone Ranger / Hobbit
alts: Hustle / Gatsby / Oz / Estate / Mandela / Rush

Cinematography
Gravity / Walter Mitty / Monuments / Llweyn / Nebraska
alts: Lost / Captain Phillips / Counselor / Rush / Wolf / Estate / Wanted Man

Visual Effects
Gravity / Walter Mitty / Iron Man Three / Pacific Rim / World War Z
alts: Elysium / Star Trek / Hobbit

Score
Monuments / Llweyn / 12 Years / Banks / Wolf
alts: Lost / Nebraska / Estate / Rush / Railway Man / Mandela / Devil's Knot

Sound Mixing
Llewyn / Gravity / Captain Phillips / Rush / Monuments
alts: 12 Years / Lost / Star Trek / Ender's Game / Elysium / Lone Ranger

Sound Editing
Gravity / Monuments / Captain Phillips / Monster's University / Rush
alts: Elysium / Pacific Rim / Lost / Iron Man Three / 12 Years / Lone Ranger / Star Trek