Best Director, Screenplays, Etc Oscar 2013 - September Predictions

Rounding out this month's predictions, we have most of the other major categories.  Surprisingly little activity with the screenplay categories, the directing race seems to be reshaping itself a lot more.  Most don't believe McQueen has a chance, but I'm going for it.  And with the Venice reviews and The Academy having opened their arms to past Alfonso Cuarón films, the Mexican director's ambitious Gravity is sure to make a convincing argument for his inclusion.  I'm beginning to buy into the possibility that David O. Russell's dual nods in the last few years were not a coincidence.  Harvey Weinstein has a chance of getting someone in, but the question will really be who he can make the strongest argument for.  He has gotten a guy in for the past five out of five races.  And Ben Stiller.  Will he turn likely commercial holiday magic into Oscar gold?

Best Director
1 (+6). David O. Russell, American Hustle
2 (+3). Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave
3 (+3). Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
4 (+1). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
5 (+6). Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

6 (-5). Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
7 (+23). Lee Daniels, Lee Daniels' The Butler
8 (-4). John Wells, August: Osage County
9 (-7). George Clooney, The Monuments Men
10 (--).  J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost

11 (-3). Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue Is the Warmest Color
12 (+9). Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
13 (--). Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
14 (+1). Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
15 (+14). Ridley Scott, The Counselor
16 (--). John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
17 (-3). Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
18 (+2). Ron Howard, Rush
19 (+12). Spike Jonze, Her
20 (-3). Alexander Payne, Nebraska

21 (+2). Jeff Nichols, Mud
22 (-13). Justin Chadwick, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
23 (+5). Jonathan Teplitzky, The Railway Man
24 (+10). Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
25 (--). Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
26 (--). Peter Berg, Lone Survivor
27 (+11). Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
28 (+11). Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman
29 (+7). Baz Luhrmann, The Great Gatsby
30 (-6). Brian Percival, The Book Thief

31 (+1). Peter Landesman, Parkland
32 (-20). Stephen Frears, Philomena
33 (-14). Bill Condon, The Fifth Estate
34 (-12). Anton Corbijn, A Most Wanted Man
35 (-8). Atom Egoyan, Devil's Knot
36  (-18). Asghar Farhadi, The Past
37 (+7). Carl Rinsch, 47 Ronin

Best Original Screenplay
1 (--). Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
2 (+2). David O. Russell & Eric Singer, American Hustle
3 (-1). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (adapted?)
4 (--). Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
5 (+2). Alfonso & Jonás Cuarón, Gravity

6 (--). Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks
7 (-2). Bob Nelson, Nebraska
8 (--). Jeff Nichols, Mud
9 (+1). Cormac McCarthy, The Counselor
10 (+1). Asghar Farhadi & Massoumeh Lahidji, The Past

11 (+1). J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost
12 (+1). Peter Morgan, Rush
13 (-4). Peter Berg, Lone Survivor
14 (+1). Spike Jonze, Her
15 (+6). Lee Daniels & Danny Strong, Lee Daniels' The Butler ("adapted"?)
16 (--). Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
17 (+7). E. Max Frye & Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
18 (+1). Peter Landesman, Parkland
19 (-1). Arash Amel, Grace of Monaco
20 (+10). Chris Morgan, et al, 47 Ronin


Best Adapted Screenplay
1 (+2). Steve McQueen & John Ridley, Twelve Years a Slave
2 (-1). Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
3 (+1). Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
4 (-2). George Clooney & Grant Heslov, The Monuments Men
5 (+2). Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

6 (+3). Abdellatif Kechiche & Ghalia Lacroix, Blue Is the Warmest Color
7 (+1). Steve Conrad, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
8 (+6). Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
9 (+8). Baz Luhrmann & Craig Pearce, The Great Gatsby
10 (+12). Jason Reitman, Labor Day

11 (+5). Frank Cottrell Boyce & Andy Paterman, The Railway Man
12 (+6). Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
13 (-2). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (original?)
14 (+7). Lee Daniels & Danny Strong, Lee Daniels' The Butler ("original"?)
15 (-9). William Nicholson, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
16 (-11). Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope, Philomena
17 (-7). Markus Zusak, Michael Petroni, The Book Thief
18 (-6). Josh Singer, The Fifth Estate
19 (-4). Andrew Bovell, A Most Wanted Man

Editing
Gravity / Hustle / 12 Years / Monuments / Captain Phillips
alts: Wolf / Rush / August / Llewyn / Walter Mitty / Butler / Lost / Fruitvale

Production Design
Gravity / Monuments / Oz / 12 Years / Gatsby
alts: Banks / Llewyn Davis / Hobbit / Elysium / Hustle / Rush / Mandela / Black Nativity

Costume Design
Gatsby / Monuments / Oz / 12 Years / Hustle
alts: Monaco / Llewyn / Railway Man / Invisible Woman / Butler / The Book Thief

Makeup and Hair
Walter Mitty / Hobbit / Lone Ranger
alts: Hustle / Gatsby / Oz / Butler / Mandela / Rush

Cinematography
Gravity / Walter Mitty / Monuments / Llweyn / Nebraska
alts: 12 Years / Hustle / Lost / Captain Phillips / Wolf / Counselor / Rush / Foxcatcher / Prisoners / Estate / Wanted Man

Visual Effects
Gravity / Walter Mitty / Pacific Rim / Iron Man Three / World War Z
alts: Star Trek / Hobbit / Elysium

Score
Banks / 12 Years / August / Monuments / Hustle
alts: Wolf / Lost / Nebraska / Llewyn / Estate / Rush / Railway Man / Mandela / Devil's Knot / Butler

Sound Mixing
Llewyn / Gravity / Captain Phillips / Rush / Monuments
alts: 12 Years / Hustle / Lost / Mitty / Star Trek / Ender's Game

Sound Editing
Gravity / Monuments / Captain Phillips / Rush / Mitty
alts: 12 Years / Hustle / Pacific Rim / Lost / Iron Man Three / Monster's University / Star Trek

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Best Actor (Lead/Supporting) Oscar 2013 - September Predictions

With so many previous winners in the Best Actress field, the lead race for me is decidedly different.  In fact, at this point, there is only one in serious contention, Forest Whitaker.  He gives a much better performance (IMO, obviously), than his Oscar-winning role from seven years ago.  To bolster his profile, Lee Daniels' The Butler is officially a hit.  The movie will also likely go onto to a Best Picture nomination if TWC has anything to do with it.  Will it be his frontrunner after all is said and done?  Could Whitaker take home another statue?  Doesn't seem likely as it's difficult to foresee Academy members clamoring for it, but then Christophe Waltz won two Oscars in the course of three years, so isn't anything possible at this point?  Whitaker joins the ranks of given-nominee Robert Redford, for career-best reviews in All Is Lost, with more to arrive shortly.  He has appeared in countless BP-nominees, but has only been nominated once for acting (beating out costar Paul Newman in 1974's The Sting, where his competition was, no joke: Brando, Lemmon, Nicholson, and Pacino).  Lost is one of those films that feels like it's on the precipice of either gaining admission into the BP-race or just falling short.  But, one that seems likely to not even figure into the BP race is Dallas Buyers Club, the movie for which Matthew McConaughey dropped down to an alarmingly low body weight (and we know how Oscah! feels about that).  I had trouble accepting the idea of his getting nominated earlier in the year and now have grown to embrace the prospects of him winning.  If he doesn't get nominated, it will be the snub of the decade, I'm sure.  The other two slots seem more in flux.  I've upped the ante in my belief in Fox Searchlight's 12 Years a Slave, so I might as well take Chiwetel Ejiofor along.  This year boasts the most Oscar-bait regarding black (male) stories, and it would be strange for this category to be lacking in representation, when we've had years in the past with at least two black nominees.  It doesn't help that Whitaker is the only one from this group who is a known entity to The Academy and commercial audiences.  Newbies tend not to overpopulate this race, though 2011 would be an argument for them.  Bruce Dern is going to be a formidable candidate, but American Hustle could still take off in a big way.  And, we can't count Ryan Coogler out, who has been in my Top Five since March, so he's staying in.

Best Actor
1 (+1). Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (-1). Robert Redford, All Is Lost
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
3 (+5). Forest Whitaker, The Butler
Feinberg, ROS
4 (+3). Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave 
TFE, IC
5 (-2). Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station

6 (+4). Bruce Dern, Nebraska (supporting?)
TFE, ROS, IC
7 (-3). Christian Bale, American Hustle
8 (-2). Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
TFE, ROS
9 (+4). Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Feinberg
10 (+18). Joaquin Phoenix, Her

11 (-6). Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
12 (-1). Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Feinberg, IC
13 (+1). Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby
14 (+1). Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
15 (+7). Colin Firth, The Railway Man
16 (+1). Tye Sheridan, Mud (supporting?)
17 (+1). Matt Damon, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
18 (-6). George Clooney, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
19 (-10). Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate
20 (+10). Josh Brolin, Labor Day (supporting?)
21 (-1). Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man (supporting?)
22 (-6). Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
23 (-4). Forrest Whitaker, Black Nativity
24 (+8). Bradley Cooper, American Hustle (supporting?)
25 (+2). Michael Pena, Chavez

The supporting category is pretty open, but you can do worse than go with standout roles in films that are likely to enter the Best Picture race.  There is all this chatter about Daniel Brühl--who actually plays a lead in Rush--so I'm adding him in as well.  I don't know if I'm ready yet for "Oscar nominee Jared Leto," even if he's playing an MTF-trans.  If McConaughey gets snubbed, I doubt Leto is going to figure into the race. And, I still think it's weird that most people don't think August: Osage County is a contender in this category.

Supporting Actor
1 (+1). Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (+2). Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks (lead?)
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
3 (New). Daniel Brühl, Rush (lead?)
IC
4 (New). David Oyelowo, Lee Daniels' The Butler 
5 (+5). Jeremy Renner, American Hustle
TFE

6 (+1). Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
IC
7 (+10). Chris Cooper, August: Osage County
8 (New). Bill Murray, The Monuments Men
9 (+16). George Clooney, Gravity
Feinberg
10 (+19). Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Feinberg, ROS

11 (-8). Benedict Cumberbatch, August: Osage County
12 (+18) Harrison Ford, 42
13 (New).  Geoffrey Rush, The Book Thief
IC
14 (-13). Bruce Dern, Nebraska (lead?)
15 (+13). Steve Carell, Foxcatcher  (lead?)
16 (-8). Josh Brolin, Labor Day (lead?)
Feinberg, ROS
17 (+3). Colin Farrell, Saving Mr. Banks (lead?)
18 (-4). John Goodman, The Monuments Men
19 (-3). Matthew McConaughey, Mud
20 (-11). Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

21 (+1). Tim Roth, Grace of Monaco
22 (-17). Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back
23 (+1). Jean Dujardin, The Monuments Men
24 (-18). Matt Damon, The Monuments Men (lead?)
25 (-13). George Clooney, The Monuments Men (lead?)
26 (+13). Matthew McConaughey, The Wolf of Wall Street
TFE
27 (-16). Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man (lead?)
28 (-7). Javier Bardem, The Counselor
29 (-16). Steve Coogan, Philomena (lead?)
30 (-7). Sean Mahon, Philomena 

31 (-13). Ewan McGregor, August: Osage County
32 (-1). Woody Harrelson, Out of the Furnace
33 (+2). Adam Scott, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
34 (-2). Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners
35 (+3). Benedict Cumberbatch, Twelve Years a Slave

36 (New). John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis
37 (Reentry).  Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
TFE, ROS

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Best Actress (Lead/Supporting) Oscar 2013 - September Predictions

The Best Actress race is about to get a huge shakeup with the onset of the Venice Film Festival, where Gravity will have its world debut today.  Star Sandra Bullock pretty much is the movie, and if critics fall in love with it, and the box-office follows suit, it will be hard to imagine the race without her.  Ironic, considering that a year ago, I couldn't fathom Bullock ever fitting into an Oscar race again (one and done, I thought).  Kind of foolish if you consider that four years ago, most people including myself never thought she would figure into an Oscar race period, but, then, she blindsided us all.  Now, here we are.  Since the last post, Blue Jasmine has opened and Cate Blanchett, whose role was shrouded in mystery just a few months ago, has become the frontrunner for the lead race, especially in the context of the supposed rumor that her main competition Meryl Streep may go supporting for August: Osage County (if Harvey Weinstein can pull a win for Oprah, I doubt it).  If anything, it has bolstered the idea of Julia Roberts landing a lead nod as an also-ran (she could have won the supporting category, but, then, her role was never supporting to begin with and it seems so silly to have had doubts in the first place).  Amy Adams' placement is still not quite certain, yet, she has the distinction of being the only strong contender at this point who has never won an Oscar (and, further, Blanchett and Judi Dench stand out because they've won supporting and not lead).

Nicole Kidman is looking weaker as each month presses on.  No trailer, no festival announcements as of yet, and she appears to be the only major candidate not appearing in a BP-contender.  (Another Harvey girl Dench might be added to that short list.)  In this respect, Streep, Roberts, Adams, Bullock, and Emma Thompson seem the strongest.  Blanchett's Jasmine could also make a run for Best Picture.  I'd pin Adèle Exarchopoulos, the only serious newcomer we can see on the horizon thus far, as a dark horse.

Lead Actress
1 (+3). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine 
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (-1). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (supporting?)
IC
3 (+9). Amy Adams, American Hustle (supporting?)
TFE, ROS
4 (+4). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County 
ROS
5 (-3). Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco

6 (+11). Sandra Bullock, Gravity
TFE, Feinberg, IC
7 (-1). Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
8 (-1). Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color
9 (-6). Judi Dench, Philomena 
TFE, Feinberg, IC
10 (+25). Mia Wasikowska, Tracks

11. (+5). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers; 2014?
12 (+6). Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Feinberg, ROS
13 (+2). Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
14 (-9). Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man
15 (-4). Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse
16 (-7). Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
17 (New). Brie Larson, Short Term 12
18 (New). Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
19 (+5). Bérénice Bejo, The Past
20 (+14). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (supporting?)

21 (+15). Jessica Chastain, Miss Julie (perhaps a late 2013 surprise)
22 (+15). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot (supporting?)
23 (+15). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (supporting?)
24 (-14). Naomi Watts, Diana
25 (-11). Kirsten Dunst, The Two Faces of January
26 (-5). Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
27 (-14). Dakota Fanning, Effie Gray
28 (-3). Rebecca Hall, A Promise 
29 (+13). Emmanuelle Seigner, Venus in Fur
30 (+13). Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
31 (+14). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His
32 (+14). Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall
33 (+15). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker

Supporting Actress
While the lead race is about "Who to take out?" the supporting actress category seems like, "Who to put in?"  Oprah Winfrey really is only the safe bet at this point for a nod.  The question is: will The Academy want to award her a competitive Oscar?  The only reference that comes to mind is Cher, but, at least when Moonstruck came out, while it was only the pop star's sixth proper movie, she had been in the biz fronting as an actress for a good five years, so her sparse film acting resume didn't seem so spread out like The Big O's.  But, Winfrey has been nominated before like Cher was before she won, and all of her three films have a "respectability" factor.  But, I get the naysayers who suggest that she might be too big for The Academy.  If that's the case, a desperate Weinstein could end up placing Streep in supporting.  But, I'm not going to bet on it.  I probably won't even consider her until it becomes official or it's late December, which ever comes first.

As far as other nominees, Spencer as an actress may now be the surest nomination for Fruitvale Station, though I could see her dropping out if Weinstein inexplicable decides to bag on the movie.  Sally Hawkins, who came close to an acting nod in 2008, is a definite contender as a coattail nominee to the likely Best Actress winner Blanchett, but by no means a sure-thing.  I still can't shake the idea of August disappointing in the nomination department for actors.  It's hard to believe it may only get two.  Part of my vision right now if things go exceptionally well for the film is two in each actress category.
As far as those supporting actress hopefuls who aren't backed by Weinstein, besides Hawkins, we have Cameron Diaz.  She's been passed over by the AMPAS a couple of times over a decade ago.  She doesn't have a sweetheart factor like Bullock or Roberts, but she is one of the few actresses who can open a movie and she did so recently on her name alone with Bad Teacher, seventeen years after she made her film debut in The Mask with Jim Carrey.  I suspect she's going to knock people's socks off in The Counselor.  There's a blend of humor and intrigue that is probably going to have people talking, but the type of role itself is one that doesn't get acknowledged by The Academy often enough.  So, Diaz has some quite polarizing elements that are going to work for and against her.  But, if she's not going to be making a run for the crown, one might surmise that she has no chance of getting in, in the first place.  But, I'm probably just deluding myself on even entertaining that Diaz has a chance to begin with.

I'm probably underestimating the "afterglow" effect as far as recent winner Jennifer Lawrence's chances go.  It just seems like too much, too soon, but what do I know?  It's not like she's Meryl Streep (she did beat her at the Golden Globes, though).  June Squibb may have people talking with her performance, but it would be kind of odd for her to get in and not her movie's main star Bruce Dern for Best Actor (he definitely has a shot, though).  As far as trying to fill out the top five, you can do much worse than go with someone from what you think will be a likely Best Picture contender.

1 (+7). Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (--). Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
TFE, IC
3 (+4). Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
4 (-1). Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
ROS, IC
5 (+21). Lupito Nyong'O, Twelve Years a Slave
Feinberg, ROS, IC

6 (-5). Amy Adams, American Hustle (lead?)
7 (New). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (lead?)
TFE, Feinberg, ROS
8 (-2). June Squibb, Nebraska
IC
9 (-5). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor 
TFE
10 (+3). Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
TFE, Feinberg

11 (+10). Julianne Nicholson, August: Osage County
12 (+5). Annie Rose Buckley, Saving Mr. Banks
13 (-3). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (lead?)
Feinberg
14 (-9). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men
15 (New).  Rachel Griffiths, Saving Mr. Banks
16 (+4). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (lead?)
17 (+17). Helen Bonham Carter, The Young and Prodigious Spivet
18 (+23). Amy Adams, Her
19 (+5). Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
20 (-11). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (lead?)

21 (New). Léa Seydoux, Blue Is the Warmest Color
22 (+7). Jessica Lange, Thérèse
23 (-11). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
ROS

24 (+8). Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
25 (+5). Viola Davis, Prisoners
26 (-4). Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
27 (+1). Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
28 (-9). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
29 (-13). Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyer's Club
30 (-19). Alison Janney, The Way, Way Back
31 (+8). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
32 (-5). Adepero Udeye, Twelve Years a Slave

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Best Picture Oscar 2013 - September Predictions

I'm at the point with the Best Picture race that I'm starting to think more about what the winners might end up actually being, but probably not that much closer than I was in March.  One must always consider Harvey Weinstein first.  He has a great track record and knows how to groom a winner.  But, he always relies heavily on box-office.  Even a small black and white "silent" movie managed to rake in almost $45M under his supervision.  While Fruitvale Station has passed the $15M mark, I'm doubtful that the quiet indie has what it takes to go the distance, so, as a placeholder, it doesn't any longer make sense (watch me eat my words after it gains a huge audience on VOD).  Rounding out the Field of Nine now, I'm not saying that it won't end up getting nominated, but, I see it as a smaller film that will have to fight its way in.  Kind of how The Master was last year (and lost).  True, it wasn't as accessible of a film and definitely played less to the emotions as Fruitvale, but in a competitive field, it ended up falling short.  

If that will be the case this year for Fruitvale, that will be due in large part to Weinstein's other two contenders.  Lee Daniels' The Butler, for all intents and purposes is a box-office hit.  I have to eat crow over the fact that I said the movie would be a hot mess and Daniels would get no where near the director's race.  While a nod for him isn't exactly in the cards, he made his way into the conversation as an outlier.  However, its MC score is 16 points behind Harvey's BP-winning lowest scorer, Chicago--considerable amount that may or may not be overcome with undisputed commercial legs.  Harvey's December pony August: Osage County will be an entertaining, yet dark and grim family drama if it's anything resembling its theatrical source.  More episodic and less topical than previous winner Ordinary People, but, if it's somehow framed as "optimistic" and given a more epic tone like American Beauty, it may have enough fuel in its tank for a win.  There's always Mandela: The Long Walk Home, though, which may pull the carpet from underneath most of us.  

Moving beyond Weinstein, you have three titans in the industry offering fare which carry with them the most expectations.  I've been quite bearish on The Wolf of Wall Street as the year has wore on and am waiting to see if my hunch will pan out.  American Hustle strikes me as having more potential, especially for a win.  Recently, The Monuments Men has tried to carefully extract itself from this small, elite group of contenders.  They've gotten star Cate Blanchett, and a collection of major Oscar bloggers to attest to its lack of awards-worthiness.  Smart move, but I don't buy it entirely.  Call me a conspiracy theorist, but is there something subversive going on?  Maybe it will end up being Ocean's 11 Goes to World War II, and that will be it, but for now, I'm calling B.S.  So, it remains to me to be one that could end up winning, or be left out of the race entirely.  Speaking of which ...

Back in May, I switched Monuments from the #1 slot for 20th-Century Fox' The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, a debut on the list after reading some internet chatter post CinemaCon citing some impressive footage.  It was knee-jerk, I admit, as I knocked it down fourteen notches two months later.  I have to work on staying the course, because, after the trailer from a few weeks ago has settled in, I'm wondering if there was something to my hunch after all.  And, come NYFF where it will premiere for festival goers, if there isn't anything there, so be it.  Saving Mr. Banks might also be bait-failure, yet its Disney backing makes it a guess worth sticking with.  But, like Mitty, its enjoying a more unassuming profile. 

The two films that will be exploding in accolades shortly, however, are Gravity and 12 Years a Slave.  I imagine these two films will shoot up most of the Oscar blogger's lists in the next few weeks with the onset of the Venice and Toronto film festivals.  I tried tempering my prediction enthusiasm for Gravity, especially with my hunch that Sandra Bullock won't be reentering the race anytime soon (and with her performance all over this film, it's hard to imagine her not getting a nomination if the movie takes off), but it's hard to resist the buzz and anticipation.  And the more astute are bearish on 12 Years a Slave, taking into strong consideration controversial and media-unfriendly director Steve McQueen, complete with his cold, detached directing style.  I've been willfully ignorant of this for the last five months.  It's this year's show pony for Fox Searchlight (barring any unforeseen festival purchases)--a strong studio campaigner after TWC--and its period setting and subject matter give it a gravitas I'm investing a lot of faith in.  The recent positive indicators creeping in are only steeling my resolve.  Do I think it will win too?  Well, not for now.  But, it gets this month's honor of #1 placeholder.  

1 (+4). 12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight).  RD: 10/18 (moved up two months).  Dir: Steve McQueen.  Screenplay: McQueen, John Ridley from Solomon Northup's memoir.  Cast: Chiwetel Ejiofor, Brad Pitt, Michael Fassbender, Benedict Cumberbatch, Paul Giamatti, Paul Dano, Quvenzhané Wallis, Dwight Henry, Sarah Paulson, and Taran Killam.  Editor: Joe Walker.  Composer: Hans Zimmer.  Cinematographer: Sean Bobbitt.  Production Designer: Adam Stockhausen (Moonrise Kingdom).  Producers: Brad Pitt.  Upcoming Festivals: TIFF.
Feinberg, IC

2 (--). Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS).  RD: 12/ 6 limited (12/20 expansion).  Dir: Coen brothers.  Screenplay: Loosely based on folksinger Dave Van Ronk's 2005 memoir The Mayor of MacDougal (finished posthumously by Elijah Wald).  Cast: Oscar Isaac, Garrett Hedlund, Carey Mulligan, Adam Driver, John Goodman, and Justin Timberlake.  Cinematographer: Bruno Delbonnel (Amélie, A Very Long Engagement, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince).  Production Designer: Jess Gonchor (True Grit, Foxcatcher, The Lone Ranger).  Costume Designer: Mary Zophres (True Grit).  Producer: Scott Rudin, Coen brothers.  Upcoming Festivals: Telluride, NYFF. 
ROS

3 (+3). August: Osage County (TWC).  RD: 12/25.  Dir: John Wells.  Adapted Screenplay: Tracy Letts from his play.  Cast: Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Margo Martindale, Chris Cooper, Ewan McGregor, Benedict Cumberbatch, Juliette Lewis, Sam Shepard, Julianne Nicholson, Dermot Mulroney, and Abigail Breslin.  Editor: Stephen Mirrione (Babel, Traffic).  Cinematographer: Adriano Goldman (Jane Eyre, Sin Nombre).  Production Designer: David Gropman (Life of Pi, The Cide House Rules).  Costume Designer: Cindy Evans.  Producers: Argonauts Clooney, Heslov, and Weinstein.  Budget: $25M.  Upcoming Festivals: TIFF.
TFE, Feinberg, IC

4 (+8). Gravity (WB).  RD: 10/4.  Dir: Alfonso Cuarón.  Original Screenplay: Cuarón and brother Jonas.  Editors: Cuarón, Mark Sanger.  Composer: Steven Price.  Cinematographer: Emmanuel Lubezki (Cuarón's longtime collaborator has been nominated five times without a win--twice for movies they've done together--being overlooked two years ago for The Tree of Life).  Production Designer: Andy Nicholson.  Costume Designer: Jany Temine (Skyfall, the Harry Potter franchise since Azkaban).  Upcoming Festivals: Telluride, TIFF, VFF.
TFE, Feinberg, IC

5 (--). Saving Mr. Banks (Walt Disney).  RD: 12/13 limited (12/20 expansion).  Dir: John Lee Hancock (The Blind Side).  Original Screenplay: Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith.  Cast: Emma Thompson, Tom Hanks, Colin Farrell, Annie Rose Buckley.  Cinematographer: John Schwartzman (Seabiscuit).  Production Designer: Michael Corenblith (How the Grinch Stole Christmas, Apollo 13).  Composer: Thomas Newman (eleven times nominated, never won).  Producers: Alison Owen (Elizabeth).  Filmed Fall 2012 in SoCal.  

TFE, ROS, IC

6 (+1). American Hustle (Sony).  RD: 12/13 limited (12/25 expansion).  Dir: David O. Russell.  Original Screenplay: Eric Singer and Russell.  Cast: Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence.  Cinematographer: Linus Sandgren (Promised Land).  Production Designer: Judy Becker (O. Russell's last two films, as well as Brokeback Mountain).  Costume Designer: Michael Wilkinson.  Producers: Megan Ellison, Charles Roven (The Dark Knight).

TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC

7 (-4). The Monuments Men (Sony).  Release Date: 12/18.  Dir: George Clooney.  Adapted Screenplay: Clooney, Grant Heslov from Robert M. Edsel book.  Cast: Clooney, Daniel Craig, Matt Damon, John Goodman, Bill Murray, Cate Blanchett, Jean Dujardin, Bob Balaban. Cinematographer: Phedon Papamichael (The Descendants, The Pursuit of Happyness, Walk the Line, Sideways).  Composer: Alexandre Desplat (Argo, The King's Speech, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Queen).  Production Designer: James D. Bissell (Good Night, and Good Luck., E.T.).  Costume Designer: Louise Frogley (The Ides of March, Traffic).  Producers: Clooney, Heslov.  

ROS, IC

8 (+11). Lee Daniels' The Butler (TWC).  Released.  Dir: Lee Daniels.  "Adapted" Screenplay: Danny Strong from an article written by Wil Haygood.  Cast: Forest Whitaker, Oprah Winfrey, Terrence Howard, and a list of stunt-casting long and dubious enough to give one an elongated pause.  Editor: Joe Klotz (Precious, Rabbit Hole).  Cinematography: Andrew Dunn (The Madness of King George, Precious).  Costume Designer: Ruth E. Carter (Malcolm X, Amistad).  Producers: Daniels, Laura Ziskin (her final film), Cassian Elwes (Dallas Buyers Club, Margin Call, Blue Valentine), and around forty other people (not kidding).  Budget: $25M (filmed Summer 2012).  IMDb: 6.2 (5.3k users).  RT/MC: 73/66.  Box Office: $51.8M+.  
Feinberg, ROS

9 (-8). Fruitvale Station (TWC).  Released.  Director/Screenplay: Ryan Coogler.  Cast: Michael B. Jordan, Octavia Spencer (also a coproducer), and Chad Michael Murray.  Costume Designer: Aggie Guerard Rodgers (The Color Purple, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, Pee Wee's Big Adventure).  IMDb: 7.6 (174 users).  Pros: TWC, Great festival reviews; appeals to audience's emotions, especially liberals.  Cons: Smaller scale, potentially polarizing.  Producer: Forest Whitaker. IMDb: 7.7 (4.6k users).  RT/MC: 94/85.  Box Office: $15M+.
TFE

10 (+5).  The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox).  RD: 12/25.  Dir: Ben Stiller.  Cast: Stiller, Kristen Wiig.  Editor: Greg Hayden.  Composer: Theodore Shapiro.  Cinematographer: Stuart Dryburgh (The Piano).  Production Designer: Jeff Mann.  Costume Designer: Sarah Edwards.  Producers: Stiller, Samuel Goldwyn Jr (Master and Commander), John Goldwyn (I'm Not There).  Upcoming Festivals: NYFF.
IC

11 (--). Blue Jasmine (SPC).  Released.  Dir: Woody Allen.  Cinematographer: Javier Aguirresarobe (The Others).  Production Designer: Santo Loquasto (longtime Allen collaborator nominated for three of his films).  Producers: Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum (Midnight in Paris).  IMDb: 7.9 (3.6k users).  RT/MC: 90/77.  Box Office: $14.5M+.  

12 (-2). All Is Lost (Lionsgate).  RD: 10/18.  Dir: J.C. Chandor.  Original Screenplay: Chandor.  Cast: Robert Redford.  Cinematographer: Frank G. DeMarco (Hedwig and the Angry Inch).  Editor: Peter Beaudreau.  Composer: Alex Ebert.  Production Designer: John P. Goldsmith.  Costume Designer: Van Broughton Ramsey.  Precursors: The Old Man and the Sea, Castaway, Life of Pi.  Upcoming Festivals: Telluride, NYFF.

TFE, Feinberg, ROS

13 (+1). The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount).  RD: 11/15.  Dir: Martin Scorsese.  Screenplay: Terence Winter adaptated Jordan Belfort's memoir.  Cast: Leonardo DiCaprio, Matthew McConaughey, Jonah Hill, Kyle Chandler, Jon Favreau, Jean Dujardin, Rob Reiner, Spike Jonze, Christine Ebersole, Fran Lebowitz, Margot Robbie, and Joanna Lumley.  Editor: Thelma Schoonmaker.  Composer: Howard Shore (Hugo, LOTR).  Cinematographer: Rodrigo Prieto (Brokeback Mountain, Argo, Babel).  Production Designer: Bob Shaw.  Costume Designer: Sandy Powell.  Producers: Scorsese, DiCaprio. Budget: $100M. 

Feinberg, ROS

14 (-6). Nebraska (Paramount).  RD: 11/22 (limited).  Dir: Alexander Payne.  Original Screenplay: Bob Nelson. Cast: Bruce Dern, Will Forte, June Squibb, Stacy Keach, Bob Odenkirk.  Editor: Kevin Tent (The Descendants).  Cinematographer: Phedon Papamichael (Walk the Line, The Pursuit of Happyness, The Ides of March, the Descendants, The Monuments Men).  Production Designer: J. Dennis Washington.  Costume Designer: Wendy Chuck.  Producers: Albert Berger, Ron Yerxa (Little Miss Sunshine, Cold Mountain, Little Children, Election).  Upcoming Festivals: Telluride, NYFF. 

15 (-2). Before Midnight (SPC).  Released.  Dir: Richard Linklater.  Screenplay: Linklater, Delpy, Hawke.  Cast: Delpy, Hawke.   Editor: Sandra Adair.  Cinematographer: Lee Daniel.  Composer: Fred Frith.  Production Designer: Florian Reichmanm.   IMDb: 8.4 (16k users).  RT/MC: 98/94.  Box Office: $8M.  

ROS

16 (+13). Blue Is the Warmest Color (Sundance Selects).  RD: 10/25.  Dir: Abdellatif Kechiche.  Upcoming Festivals: Telluride, TIFF, NYFF.  

17 (+6). Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom (TWC).  RD: 11/29 (limited; moved back from 11/27).  Dir: Justin Chadwick.  Screenplay: William Nicholson (Shadowlands, Gladiator, Les Misérables, Elizabeth: The Golden Age).  Cast: Idris Elba, Naomie Harris.  Composer: Alex Heffes (The Last King of Scotland).  Cinematographer: Lol Crawley (Hyde Park on Hudson).  Production Designer: Johnny Breedt (Hotel Rwanda).  Upcoming Festivals: TIFF.

18 (+2). Rush (Universal).  RD: 9/20 (limited with 9/27 expansion).  Dir: Ron Howard.  Original Screenplay: Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon, The Queen).  Editor: Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill (Apollo 13, etc.).  Cinematographer: Anthony Dod Mantle (Slumdog Millionaire).  Production Designer: Mark Digby.  Costume Designer: Julian Day.  Composer: Hans Zimmer.  Producers: Ron Howard, Brian Grazer (Apollo 13, A Beautiful Mind, Frost/Nixon), Eric Fellner (Elizabeth, Atonement, Frost/Nixon, Les Misérables), Brian Oliver (Black Swan).  Upcoming Festivals: TIFF.

IC

19 (-1). Captain Phillips (Sony).  RD: 10/11.  Dir: Paul Greengrass.  Screenplay: Billy Ray.  Cast: Tom Hanks.  Editor: Christopher Rouse (The Bourne Ultimatum, United 93).  Cinematographer: Barry Ackroyd (The Hurt Locker, United 93).  Costume Designer: Mark Bridges (The Artist, P.T. Anderson and David O. Russell films).  Producers: Scott Rudin, Michael De Luca (Moneyball, The Social Network), Dana Brunetti (The Social Network).  Upcoming Festivals: NYFF.
TFE, Feinberg, ROS

20 (+6). The Railway Man (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Jonathan Teplitzky (Burning Man).  Adapted Screenplay: Frank Cottrell Boyce and Andy Paterson from the novel by Eric Lomax.  Cinematographer: Garry Phillips.  Production Designer: Steven Jones-Evans.  Costume Designer: Lizzy Gardiner (Priscilla, Queen of the Desert).  Composer: David Hirschfelder (Elizabeth, Shine, Australia).  Upcoming Festivals: TIFF.

21 (+17). Her (WB).  RD: 12/18 limited with 1/10 add (pushed back from 11/22).  Dir: Spike Jonze.  An Annapurna production.  Upcoming Festivals: NYFF.  
TFE

22 (+2). The Past (SPC).  RD: 12/20.  Dir: Asghar Farhadi (A Separation).  Screenplay: Farhadi and Massoumeh Lahidji.  Editor: Juliette Welfling (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly).  Cinematographer: Mahmoud Kalari (A Separation).  Production Designer: Claude Lenoir (Three Colours Trilogy).  Budget: $11M (filmed in Paris Fall 2012).  Upcoming Festivals: Telluride, TIFF.

23 (+5). The Counselor (20th Century Fox).  RD: 10/25.  Dir: Ridley Scott.  Original Screenplay: Cormac McCarthy.    Editor: Pietro Scalia (JFK, Good Will Hunting, Gladiator, Black Hawk Down).  Cinematographer: Dariusz Wolski (Sweeney Todd).  Production Designer: Arthur Max (Gladiator, American Gangster).  Costume Designer: Janty Yates (Gladiator).  Composer: Daniel Pemberton.  Producers; Ridley Scott, Nick Wechsler (The Player).  

24 (-3).  Mud (Lionsgate).  Released.  Dir: Jeff Nichols.  Producer: Sarah Green (The Tree of Life).  IMDb: 7.6 (28k users).  RT/MC: 98/76.  Box Office: $21.6M.

25 (-16).  Philomena (TWC).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Stephen Frears.  Adapted Screenplay: Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope from Martin Sixsmith's The Lost Child of Philomena Lee.  Cast: Judi Dench, Coogan, Sean Mahon.  Editor: Valerio Bonelli.  Cinematographer: Robbie Ryan.  Production Designer: Alan MacDonald.  Costume Designer: Consolata Boyle (The Queen).  Producers: Tracey Seaward (The Queen), Coogan.  Upcoming Festivals: TIFF, VFF.  

26 (+5). The Great Gatsby (WB).  Released.  Dir: Baz Luhrman.  Producers: Luhrman, Douglas Wick (Gladiator, Working Girl), Lucy Fisher (Memoirs of a Geisha).  IMDb: 7.5 (74k users).  RT/MC: 49/55.

27 (+5). Dallas Buyers Club (Focus).  RD: 11/1 (moved up from 12/6).  Dir: Jean-Marc Vallée.  Original Screenplay: Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack.  Editors: Martin Pensa and Vallée.  Cinematographer: Yves Bélanger.  Production Designer: John Paino.  Costume Designers: Kurt and Bart.  Upcoming Festivals: TIFF.

TFE

28 (+5). Foxcatcher (SPC; changed from Sony).  RD: 12/20.  Director: Bennett Miller.  Screenplay: E. Max Frye (Something Wild) and Dan Futterman (Capote).  Cinematographer: Greig Fraser (Zero Dark Thirty, Killing Them Softly).  Production Designer: Jess Gonchor (True Grit, Moneyball).  Costume Designer: Kasia Walicka-Maimone (Moonrise Kingdom, Moneyball).  Cast: Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, Channing Tatum, Sienna Miller, Vanessa Redgrave, Anthony Michael Hall, and Tara Subkoff.  Producers: Megan Ellison, Bennett Miller, Anthony Bregman (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind).
Feinberg, IC

29 (+13). Labor Day (Paramount).  RD: 12/25 (limited; changed from 12/30).  Dir: Jason Reitman.  Upcoming Festivals: Telluride, TIFF.

30 (+13). Parkland (Open Road).  RD: 10/4.  Dir: Peter Landesman.  Upcoming Festivals: TIFF, VFF.  

31 (-15).  The Book Thief (Fox 2000).  RD: 11/15.  Dir: Brian Percival.  Adapted Screenplay: Michael Petroni from the book by Markus Zusak.  Cast: Geoffrey Rush, Emily Watson, Sophie Nelisse.  Editor: John Wilson (Billy Elliot).  Costume Designer: Anna B. Sheppard (Schindler's List, The Pianist).  Filmed in Potsdam and Berlin.

32 (+28). The World's End (Focus).  RD: Released.  Dir: Edgar Wright.  RT/MC: 91/81

33 (-6). Black Nativity (Fox Searchlight).  RD: 11/27.  Dir: Kasi Lemmons.  Producer: William Horberg (Cold Mountain), Celine Rattray (The Kids Are All Right), and Sting's wife!

34 (-12).  Lone Survivor (Universal).  RD: 12/27 (rollout).  Editor, Composer, Cinematographer, and Production Designer have never been nominated before.  Producers: Akiva Goldsman (A Beautiful Mind), Barry Spikings (The Deer Hunter).

35 (-18). The Fifth Estate (Walt Disney).  RD: 10/18 (changed from 10/11).  Dir: Bill Condon (Dreamgirls, Gods and Monsters).  Adapted Screenplay: Josh Singer from several sources.  Cast: Benedict Cumberbatch, Daniel Brühl, Anthony Mackie, and Carice van Houten.  Editor: Virginia Katz (Dreamgirls).  Cinematographer: Tobias A. Schliessler (Dreamgirls).  Production Designer: Mark Tildesley (The Constant Gardener).  Production Designer: Shay Cunliffe (part of the Bourne series).  Composer: Carter Burwell.  Producers: Steve Golin (Babel, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Being John Malkovich).  Upcoming Festivals: TIFF.

36 (-11). A Most Wanted Man (Lionsgate).  RD: N/A.  Director: Anton Crobijn.  Adapted Screenplay: Andrew Bovell from a novel by John le Carré.  Editor: Claire Simpson (Platoon, The Constant Gardener, The Reader).  Cinematographer: Benoit Delhomme.  Production Designer: Sebastian T. Krawinkel.  Costume Designer: Nicole Fischnaller.  Composer: Herbert Grönemeyer.  

37 (New).  The Zero Theorem (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Terry Gilliam.  Upcoming Festivals: VFF.    

38 (New).  About Time (Universal).  RD: 11/1 (limited).  Dir. Richard Curtis.  Upcoming Festivals: NYFF.

39 (New).  Can a Song Save Your Life? (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: John Carney.  Upcoming Festivals: TIFF.

40 (-12). Devil's Knot (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Atom Egoyan.  Dir: Atom Egoyan (The Sweet Hereafter).  Adapted Screenplay: Paul Harris and Scott Derrickson from the book by Mara Leveritt.  Editor: Susan Shipton.  Cinematographer: Paul Sarossy.  Production Designer: Phillip Barker.  Costume Designer: Kari Perkins (Mud).  Composer: Mychael Danna (Life of Pi, Moneyball, Little Miss Sunshine, Capote).  Upcoming Festivals: TIFF.

41 (+22). 47 Ronin (Universal).  RD: 12/25.  Dir: Carl Rinsch.

42 (-5). Grace of Monaco (TWC).  RD: 11/27 (limited).  Dir: Olivier Dahan.

43 (New).  Tracks (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: John Curran. Upcoming Festivals: TIFF, VFF.   

44 (+7). Night Moves (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Kelly Reichardt.  Upcoming Festivals: TIFF, VFF.  

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