Best Actor (Lead/Supporting) Oscar 2013 - September Predictions

With so many previous winners in the Best Actress field, the lead race for me is decidedly different.  In fact, at this point, there is only one in serious contention, Forest Whitaker.  He gives a much better performance (IMO, obviously), than his Oscar-winning role from seven years ago.  To bolster his profile, Lee Daniels' The Butler is officially a hit.  The movie will also likely go onto to a Best Picture nomination if TWC has anything to do with it.  Will it be his frontrunner after all is said and done?  Could Whitaker take home another statue?  Doesn't seem likely as it's difficult to foresee Academy members clamoring for it, but then Christophe Waltz won two Oscars in the course of three years, so isn't anything possible at this point?  Whitaker joins the ranks of given-nominee Robert Redford, for career-best reviews in All Is Lost, with more to arrive shortly.  He has appeared in countless BP-nominees, but has only been nominated once for acting (beating out costar Paul Newman in 1974's The Sting, where his competition was, no joke: Brando, Lemmon, Nicholson, and Pacino).  Lost is one of those films that feels like it's on the precipice of either gaining admission into the BP-race or just falling short.  But, one that seems likely to not even figure into the BP race is Dallas Buyers Club, the movie for which Matthew McConaughey dropped down to an alarmingly low body weight (and we know how Oscah! feels about that).  I had trouble accepting the idea of his getting nominated earlier in the year and now have grown to embrace the prospects of him winning.  If he doesn't get nominated, it will be the snub of the decade, I'm sure.  The other two slots seem more in flux.  I've upped the ante in my belief in Fox Searchlight's 12 Years a Slave, so I might as well take Chiwetel Ejiofor along.  This year boasts the most Oscar-bait regarding black (male) stories, and it would be strange for this category to be lacking in representation, when we've had years in the past with at least two black nominees.  It doesn't help that Whitaker is the only one from this group who is a known entity to The Academy and commercial audiences.  Newbies tend not to overpopulate this race, though 2011 would be an argument for them.  Bruce Dern is going to be a formidable candidate, but American Hustle could still take off in a big way.  And, we can't count Ryan Coogler out, who has been in my Top Five since March, so he's staying in.

Best Actor
1 (+1). Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (-1). Robert Redford, All Is Lost
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
3 (+5). Forest Whitaker, The Butler
Feinberg, ROS
4 (+3). Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave 
TFE, IC
5 (-2). Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station

6 (+4). Bruce Dern, Nebraska (supporting?)
TFE, ROS, IC
7 (-3). Christian Bale, American Hustle
8 (-2). Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
TFE, ROS
9 (+4). Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Feinberg
10 (+18). Joaquin Phoenix, Her

11 (-6). Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
12 (-1). Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Feinberg, IC
13 (+1). Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby
14 (+1). Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
15 (+7). Colin Firth, The Railway Man
16 (+1). Tye Sheridan, Mud (supporting?)
17 (+1). Matt Damon, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
18 (-6). George Clooney, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
19 (-10). Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate
20 (+10). Josh Brolin, Labor Day (supporting?)
21 (-1). Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man (supporting?)
22 (-6). Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
23 (-4). Forrest Whitaker, Black Nativity
24 (+8). Bradley Cooper, American Hustle (supporting?)
25 (+2). Michael Pena, Chavez

The supporting category is pretty open, but you can do worse than go with standout roles in films that are likely to enter the Best Picture race.  There is all this chatter about Daniel Brühl--who actually plays a lead in Rush--so I'm adding him in as well.  I don't know if I'm ready yet for "Oscar nominee Jared Leto," even if he's playing an MTF-trans.  If McConaughey gets snubbed, I doubt Leto is going to figure into the race. And, I still think it's weird that most people don't think August: Osage County is a contender in this category.

Supporting Actor
1 (+1). Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (+2). Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks (lead?)
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
3 (New). Daniel Brühl, Rush (lead?)
IC
4 (New). David Oyelowo, Lee Daniels' The Butler 
5 (+5). Jeremy Renner, American Hustle
TFE

6 (+1). Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
IC
7 (+10). Chris Cooper, August: Osage County
8 (New). Bill Murray, The Monuments Men
9 (+16). George Clooney, Gravity
Feinberg
10 (+19). Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Feinberg, ROS

11 (-8). Benedict Cumberbatch, August: Osage County
12 (+18) Harrison Ford, 42
13 (New).  Geoffrey Rush, The Book Thief
IC
14 (-13). Bruce Dern, Nebraska (lead?)
15 (+13). Steve Carell, Foxcatcher  (lead?)
16 (-8). Josh Brolin, Labor Day (lead?)
Feinberg, ROS
17 (+3). Colin Farrell, Saving Mr. Banks (lead?)
18 (-4). John Goodman, The Monuments Men
19 (-3). Matthew McConaughey, Mud
20 (-11). Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

21 (+1). Tim Roth, Grace of Monaco
22 (-17). Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back
23 (+1). Jean Dujardin, The Monuments Men
24 (-18). Matt Damon, The Monuments Men (lead?)
25 (-13). George Clooney, The Monuments Men (lead?)
26 (+13). Matthew McConaughey, The Wolf of Wall Street
TFE
27 (-16). Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man (lead?)
28 (-7). Javier Bardem, The Counselor
29 (-16). Steve Coogan, Philomena (lead?)
30 (-7). Sean Mahon, Philomena 

31 (-13). Ewan McGregor, August: Osage County
32 (-1). Woody Harrelson, Out of the Furnace
33 (+2). Adam Scott, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
34 (-2). Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners
35 (+3). Benedict Cumberbatch, Twelve Years a Slave

36 (New). John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis
37 (Reentry).  Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
TFE, ROS