Best Actress (Lead/Supporting) Oscar 2013 - September Predictions

The Best Actress race is about to get a huge shakeup with the onset of the Venice Film Festival, where Gravity will have its world debut today.  Star Sandra Bullock pretty much is the movie, and if critics fall in love with it, and the box-office follows suit, it will be hard to imagine the race without her.  Ironic, considering that a year ago, I couldn't fathom Bullock ever fitting into an Oscar race again (one and done, I thought).  Kind of foolish if you consider that four years ago, most people including myself never thought she would figure into an Oscar race period, but, then, she blindsided us all.  Now, here we are.  Since the last post, Blue Jasmine has opened and Cate Blanchett, whose role was shrouded in mystery just a few months ago, has become the frontrunner for the lead race, especially in the context of the supposed rumor that her main competition Meryl Streep may go supporting for August: Osage County (if Harvey Weinstein can pull a win for Oprah, I doubt it).  If anything, it has bolstered the idea of Julia Roberts landing a lead nod as an also-ran (she could have won the supporting category, but, then, her role was never supporting to begin with and it seems so silly to have had doubts in the first place).  Amy Adams' placement is still not quite certain, yet, she has the distinction of being the only strong contender at this point who has never won an Oscar (and, further, Blanchett and Judi Dench stand out because they've won supporting and not lead).

Nicole Kidman is looking weaker as each month presses on.  No trailer, no festival announcements as of yet, and she appears to be the only major candidate not appearing in a BP-contender.  (Another Harvey girl Dench might be added to that short list.)  In this respect, Streep, Roberts, Adams, Bullock, and Emma Thompson seem the strongest.  Blanchett's Jasmine could also make a run for Best Picture.  I'd pin Adèle Exarchopoulos, the only serious newcomer we can see on the horizon thus far, as a dark horse.

Lead Actress
1 (+3). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine 
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (-1). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (supporting?)
IC
3 (+9). Amy Adams, American Hustle (supporting?)
TFE, ROS
4 (+4). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County 
ROS
5 (-3). Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco

6 (+11). Sandra Bullock, Gravity
TFE, Feinberg, IC
7 (-1). Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
8 (-1). Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color
9 (-6). Judi Dench, Philomena 
TFE, Feinberg, IC
10 (+25). Mia Wasikowska, Tracks

11. (+5). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers; 2014?
12 (+6). Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Feinberg, ROS
13 (+2). Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
14 (-9). Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man
15 (-4). Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse
16 (-7). Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
17 (New). Brie Larson, Short Term 12
18 (New). Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
19 (+5). Bérénice Bejo, The Past
20 (+14). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (supporting?)

21 (+15). Jessica Chastain, Miss Julie (perhaps a late 2013 surprise)
22 (+15). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot (supporting?)
23 (+15). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (supporting?)
24 (-14). Naomi Watts, Diana
25 (-11). Kirsten Dunst, The Two Faces of January
26 (-5). Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
27 (-14). Dakota Fanning, Effie Gray
28 (-3). Rebecca Hall, A Promise 
29 (+13). Emmanuelle Seigner, Venus in Fur
30 (+13). Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
31 (+14). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His
32 (+14). Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall
33 (+15). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker

Supporting Actress
While the lead race is about "Who to take out?" the supporting actress category seems like, "Who to put in?"  Oprah Winfrey really is only the safe bet at this point for a nod.  The question is: will The Academy want to award her a competitive Oscar?  The only reference that comes to mind is Cher, but, at least when Moonstruck came out, while it was only the pop star's sixth proper movie, she had been in the biz fronting as an actress for a good five years, so her sparse film acting resume didn't seem so spread out like The Big O's.  But, Winfrey has been nominated before like Cher was before she won, and all of her three films have a "respectability" factor.  But, I get the naysayers who suggest that she might be too big for The Academy.  If that's the case, a desperate Weinstein could end up placing Streep in supporting.  But, I'm not going to bet on it.  I probably won't even consider her until it becomes official or it's late December, which ever comes first.

As far as other nominees, Spencer as an actress may now be the surest nomination for Fruitvale Station, though I could see her dropping out if Weinstein inexplicable decides to bag on the movie.  Sally Hawkins, who came close to an acting nod in 2008, is a definite contender as a coattail nominee to the likely Best Actress winner Blanchett, but by no means a sure-thing.  I still can't shake the idea of August disappointing in the nomination department for actors.  It's hard to believe it may only get two.  Part of my vision right now if things go exceptionally well for the film is two in each actress category.
As far as those supporting actress hopefuls who aren't backed by Weinstein, besides Hawkins, we have Cameron Diaz.  She's been passed over by the AMPAS a couple of times over a decade ago.  She doesn't have a sweetheart factor like Bullock or Roberts, but she is one of the few actresses who can open a movie and she did so recently on her name alone with Bad Teacher, seventeen years after she made her film debut in The Mask with Jim Carrey.  I suspect she's going to knock people's socks off in The Counselor.  There's a blend of humor and intrigue that is probably going to have people talking, but the type of role itself is one that doesn't get acknowledged by The Academy often enough.  So, Diaz has some quite polarizing elements that are going to work for and against her.  But, if she's not going to be making a run for the crown, one might surmise that she has no chance of getting in, in the first place.  But, I'm probably just deluding myself on even entertaining that Diaz has a chance to begin with.

I'm probably underestimating the "afterglow" effect as far as recent winner Jennifer Lawrence's chances go.  It just seems like too much, too soon, but what do I know?  It's not like she's Meryl Streep (she did beat her at the Golden Globes, though).  June Squibb may have people talking with her performance, but it would be kind of odd for her to get in and not her movie's main star Bruce Dern for Best Actor (he definitely has a shot, though).  As far as trying to fill out the top five, you can do much worse than go with someone from what you think will be a likely Best Picture contender.

1 (+7). Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (--). Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
TFE, IC
3 (+4). Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
4 (-1). Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
ROS, IC
5 (+21). Lupito Nyong'O, Twelve Years a Slave
Feinberg, ROS, IC

6 (-5). Amy Adams, American Hustle (lead?)
7 (New). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (lead?)
TFE, Feinberg, ROS
8 (-2). June Squibb, Nebraska
IC
9 (-5). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor 
TFE
10 (+3). Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
TFE, Feinberg

11 (+10). Julianne Nicholson, August: Osage County
12 (+5). Annie Rose Buckley, Saving Mr. Banks
13 (-3). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (lead?)
Feinberg
14 (-9). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men
15 (New).  Rachel Griffiths, Saving Mr. Banks
16 (+4). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (lead?)
17 (+17). Helen Bonham Carter, The Young and Prodigious Spivet
18 (+23). Amy Adams, Her
19 (+5). Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
20 (-11). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (lead?)

21 (New). Léa Seydoux, Blue Is the Warmest Color
22 (+7). Jessica Lange, Thérèse
23 (-11). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
ROS

24 (+8). Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
25 (+5). Viola Davis, Prisoners
26 (-4). Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
27 (+1). Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
28 (-9). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
29 (-13). Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyer's Club
30 (-19). Alison Janney, The Way, Way Back
31 (+8). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
32 (-5). Adepero Udeye, Twelve Years a Slave