Best Actor 2013 Oscar Predictions

Conventional wisdom would place Matthew McConaughey at the top of the pack in this year's best actor race, but I'm not sure his physical transformation is the slam dunk it appears to be on paper.  From this far distance, it just seems so Try.  I'm probably just setting myself up to be wrong.  Whether or not McConaughey gets nominated this year, the field right now looks promising for mostly newcomers to the award circuit.  Not only that, but, no disrespect to McConaughey, Oscar Isaac, Steve Carell, and Benedict Cumberbatch, but black newcomers.  This year, there are five feasible contenders of African descent (like their white competition, most of them portraying real life figures).  And none of them are marquee names either (except perhaps former winner Forrest Whitaker), which would make it a real coup if all five got in.  Can you imagine five black actors getting nominated this year for best actor?  (And, that's not even counting The Butler's Terrence Howard*, whom I'm not seriously considering for obvious reasons.)  There has never been more than two black actors in the lead race and two of the instances involved Will Smith losing to the other contender (Denzel Washington and Whitaker respectively).  The other example was Jamie Foxx beating Don Cheadle.  They all happened within five years of each other and more time has passed since the last occurrence.  Time for another?  Could there be more than two?  I can't but help but notice the racial angle as perhaps a potential sign of major diversity in this year's Oscar derby.  That being said, I'm still feeling pretty strong about Isaac and Carell (the latter of which being in it to win it leaves me dumbfounded, but there you go).  And, could Morgan Freeman's relatively recent nomination for playing Nelson Mandela go against Elba's detriment?

[3/12 Note: *Whitaker is the lead for The Butler]

1. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
2. Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale
3. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
4. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
5. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

6. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
8. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer's Club
9. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
10. George Clooney, The Monuments Men (supporting?)

11. Chadwick Boseman, 42
12. Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
13. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks (supporting?)
14. Jeremy Renner, Lowlife
15. Jacob Lofland, Mud

16. Colin Firth, The Railway Man
17. Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
18. Daniel Brühl, Rush
19. Casey Affleck, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
20. Liam James, The Way Way Back

26. Ryan Gosling, The Place Beyond the Pines
27. Christian Bale, Out of the Furnace
28. Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
29. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby
30. Josh Brolin, Oldboy

31. Jeremy Renner, American Bullshit
32. Chris Hemsworth, Rush
33. Ralph Fiennes, The Invisible Woman
34. Bradley Cooper, Serena
35. Ryan Gosling, Only God Forgives

36. Forrest Whitaker, Black Nativity
37. Joaquin Phoenix, Her
38. Matthew McConaughey, Mud
39. Colin Firth, Devil's Knot
40. Robert DeNiro, Malavita
41. Terrence Howard, The Butler