What does 2013 have in store for us? I've only been blogging for two years, but I noted that 2011 and 2012 were notably different. I actually pretty much forecasted the 2011 Best Actress race a year in advance. I had the five eventual nominees in my Top Seven a little less than a year before their names were announced. One of the those seven, Tilda Swinton, who was probably just edged out of a nomination, was in that group too. Of course, for reasons I can't recall, I lost faith in Viola Davis fast (perhaps it was the initial syrupy sweet trailer that gave me Lifetime vibes), until The Help finally opened and all the pundits were clamoring that she was a shoe-in. Later, I pushed Rooney Mara a few notches below the top five as the year wore on. But, I was pretty accurate otherwise. Then, of course, the year gave us a lot of, what I thought were, gimme's: Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher, Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe, and Glenn Close as Albert Nobbs. Those nods were pretty much non-negotiable, and in the case of Streep and Williams, it was really a dilemma of: would they win?
With 2012, it was a challenge, just because there was so little going for the category on paper. My pick for eventual winner, Keira Knightley as Anna Karenina, possibly may have gotten nominated in a super weak year (considering her film garnered four nominations, some of them surprises). I held on to her, even though she dropped in rank until the film finally opened and it became clear that she was out of the competition. The race was a hot mess and didn't even start beginning to shape up until late Summer. By then, Quvenzhané Wallis was a given (though I pulled my feet right after Sundance). At that point, I was also in with Emmanuelle Riva. Two actresses, though, who appear so obvious now, were hard to call at first. I had never read The Silver Linings Playbook, so my understanding was that Jennifer Lawrence was supporting. I simply wasn't paying enough attention and reading between the lines. I didn't start calling her (where she went straight to #1) until after TIFF and everyone was talking about her. And I knew so little about Zero Dark Thirty, that, up until critics finally saw it, I thought that possibly Chastain was also a supporting character. I had Naomi Watts on/off my list, until my last official Best Actress post in October where I had her at #6/7 during the Fall. The bottom line: I sucked on lemons for last year.
For 2013 Best Actress, my impression is that it feels similar to 2011. We have a semi-exhaustive list of possibilities including an abnormal amount of characters based on real people, which is where I find the inclination to compare this year to two year's ago. Along with that, there doesn't seem to be too many Best Picture contenders ala The Help. There's August: Osage County, and, to a lesser extent, Before Midnight, Gravity, and Lowlife. And, like two year's ago, we have Meryl Streep. Katharine Hepburn won two lead Oscars in her 60s. She is also considered one of the greatest actresses ever. So, this leads me to the lazy theorizing that, currently, Streep in August: Osage County is the odd's on favorite for a win. But, yes, it may be "too soon" for another. (But, imagine, she just handed Daniel Day-Lewis the Oscar; will he hand her one back?) Her costar, Julia Roberts, will play her daughter in what was, at least in the play, also a lead role. Both Streep and Roberts, previous Oscar winners, are joined in a sea of the like: Shirley MacLaine, Emma Thompson, Helen Hunt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Nicole Kidman, Reese Witherspoon, Marion Cotillard, Kate Winslet, Sandra Bullock, and recent winner Lawrence. So many of them have baity projects, one still has to take into consideration that in Oscar history, there have only been five Best Actress races with three previous winners (never more than that). To boot, since 1990, there have only been two Best Actress races that have had two previous winners. This year seems to favor Streep and Kidman, with a chance for Roberts or Winslet to sneak in. Thompson could be a dark horse and some seem to think Bullock has a chance.
What about the new potential Oscar faces? We have Zoe Saldana, who has been involved in a ton of commercial work, including the lucrative Avatar (even though she wasn't really "her," but one of those CGI-alien smurfs), and Star Trek franchise. I don't have much of an impression of the actress, but she didn't exactly fail when studios had her try to open Columbiana. She seems like she is at the point of her career where she is striking while the iron is hot playing singer Nina Simone. Amanda Seyfried, Felicity Jones, and Elizabeth Olsen may all also be ready to take their careers to the next level.
Like Saldana, also playing real life is one of this year's nominees, Naomi Watts. From some angles, at first, I can't say that I'm that impressed with the physical test. Princess Diana had such a distinct look and don't we know her more for her beauty and actions, rather than the way she expressed herself, which Watts will have to bat out of the park. However, I have since seen other pictures where, like Michelle Williams with Marilyn after her performance, I can see the essence of Diana in her face while she displays a wry smirk. Her fellow 2012 nominees, Chastain and Lawrence, both have fictional characters that may get them in the Oscar race. Little is known about Chastain's project, aside from the fact that there will be two installments, and Lawrence's role has been described by some as having "Lady MacBeth" overtones. Sundance, which usually gives us an eventual nominee or two, isn't the harbinger that it usually is for the Best Actress race. It offers many films with female stars taking on lead roles, but none that stand out like in year's past.
On an anticipation level, I can't say that I'm excited to see many of these films. Not sure why. I already know I'm going to love Osage County, especially if it's three hours long. Don't ask me why. TWC will probably mess it up just as one of its rivals did with Les Misérables, but I'm going to love it anyway. I'm curious about Serena, though it might end up being just plain bad. Bradley Cooper doesn't instill much confidence in the project. But, this may be Lawrence's film, so he might not even factor in (he certainly didn't when he was the lead in Silver Linings Playbook). Labor Day could be good, as might A Most Wanted Man. Though, with Rachel McAdams, I try to keep my expectations low, despite my fondness for her. I adore Annette Bening, but I don't want to get prematurely giddy about Look of Love. Same goes for one of my newer favorites Elizabeth Olsen in Thérèse, whose project will pay off big-time if everything goes right. Frances Ha I'm sure will be delightful, but I wonder if Greta Gerwig will be able to contend in the Oscar race. Same goes for Julie Delpy in Before Midnight. Malavita sounds promising, though I'm doubtful of Michelle Pfeiffer's chances. Same goes for Emma Watson in The Bling Ring. But, all in all, with so many actresses in prominent roles, this might turn out to be an spectacular year after all.
Anyway, that's all the blathering I have to cover you with (for now). Here is the official first entry for Cinesnatch's Best Actress 2013 predictions:
Lead Actress1. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
2. Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
3. Naomi Watts, Diana
4. Zoe Saldana, Nina
5. Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers; 2014?
6. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (supporting?)7. Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
8. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
9. Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man
10. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
11. Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
13. Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse
14. Marion Cotillard, Lowlife
15. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
16. Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis (supporting?)
17. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
18. Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
19. Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
20. Judi Dench, Philomena (2014?)
21. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (supporting?)
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23. Emmanuelle Seigner, Venus in Fur
24. Lily Rabe, The First (2014?)
25. Jessica Brown Findlay, Winter's Tale
26. Robin Weigert, Concussion
27. Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion (2014?)
28. Robin Wright, Two Mothers
29. Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby
30. Mia Wasikowska, Tracks
31. Annette Bening, Look of Love
32. Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
33. Mia Wasikowska, Madame Bovary
34. Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
35. Dakota Fanning, Effie
36. Emma Watson, The Bling Ring
37. Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
38. Naomi Watts, Sunlight, Jr.
39. Kristen Wiig, Girl Most Likely (formerly Imogene)
40. Rooney Mara, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
41. Elle Fanning, Ginger & Rosa
42. Cameron Diaz, The Counselor (supporting?)
43. Rebecca Hall, A Promise
44. Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His
45. Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
46. Lake Bell, In a World ...
47. Gwyneth Paltrow, 33 días
48. Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
49. Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
50. Penélope Cruz, Twice Born
51. Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall52. Michelle Pfeiffer, Malavita
53. Mia Wasikowska, Stoker
54. Hilary Swank, You're Not You
55. Jessica Biel, Emanuel and the Truth About Fishes
56. Naomi Watts, Two Mothers
57. Kaya Scodelario, Emanuel and the Truth About Fishes
58. Scarlett Johansson, Under the Skin
59. Keri Russell, Austenland
*****NEW*****
Supporting Actress
1. Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
2. Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
3. Sienna Miller, Foxcatcher
4. Kristin Scott Thomas, Only God Forgives
5. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale
6. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
7. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
8. Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men
9. Alison Janney, The Way, Way Back
10. Cameron Diaz, The Counselor
11. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine12. Helen Bonham Carter, The Young and Prodigious Spivet
13. Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
14. Annette Bening, Girl Most Likely
15. Leslie Mann, The Bling Ring
16. Robin Wright, A Most Wanted Man
17. Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
18. Isla Fischer, The Great Gatsby
19. Jessica Lange, Thérèse
20. Naomi Watts, Two Mothers
21. Elizabeth Olsen, Oldboy
22. Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
23. Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
24. Amy Adams, Her
25. Penélope Cruz, The Counselor
26. Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
27. Juliette Lewis, August: Osage County
28. Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
29. Julianne Nicholson, August: Osage County
30. Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyer's Club
31. Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
32. Jennifer Hudson, The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete
33. Abigail Breslin, August: Osage County
34. Amy Adams, Lullaby
35. Nicole Kidman, Stoker
36. Helen Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
37. Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
38. Gwyneth Paltrow, Thanks for Sharing
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