Best Director 2013 Oscar Predictions

When I make my Oscar predictions, I try to balance conventional wisdom with a little daring.  The standard perennial nominees, Oscar bait potential, Harvey Weinstein, Scott Rudin, are all elements I take into consideration, while also throwing in some out-of-the-box, but calculated thinking.  This is the first year I'm trying my hand so early in races other than Best Actress.  I've already covered Best Picture and Best Actor, so I may round out things for now with Best Director, a race that closely resembles that of Best Picture (if not mimic it entirely these days with the nomination count expansion) with perhaps a cinephile-friendly surprise or two thrown in for good measure, or recognizing a new face or generation.  Do you remember 1999?  That year gave us three directors in their late 20/early 30s who were either on their first or second feature.  Though Sam Mendes, Spike Jonze, and M. Night Shymalan haven't shaped up to be Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese, and Clint Eastwood, it did feel like, at the time, the AMPAS were embracing "the new blood."  Fresh, unique voices that were pushing film discussions forward into the future.  There are a list of young directors who got nominated for their first or second feature in the last couple of decades (Kenneth Branagh, John Singleton, Quentin Tarantino, Sofia Coppola, Jason Reitman, and 2012's Benh Zeitlin), but, unlike 1999, they appeared as singular phenomenons.  Will there be any surprise voices for 2013's lineup?

Now, this year, you have your go-to names like George Clooney (glowing from a recent Oscar win as producer) and Martin Scorsese.  You also have the previously nominated Bennett Miller, David O. Russell, Alexander Payne, Paul Greengrass, Reitman, Ridley Scott, Baz Luhrmann, (and, no, I'm not listing Lee Daniels, because he simply won't have a shot in Hell this year and that's my prediction) and previous winners Woody Allen, Ron Howard and the Coen brothers.  Daniels aside, a lot of straight white men, huh?  (Not there's anything wrong with that)  Just a stale observation.

And out of directors who have made works that have been AMPAS-approved (whether through nominations and/or wins) in the the past, in addition to John Lee Hancock, Scott Cooper, Neill Blomkamp, Derek Cianfrance, Denis Villeneuve, we have Spike Lee, Bill Condon, and Susanne Bier.  Alfonso Cuaron may have come awfully close a couple of times and his ambitious Gravity rising from the horizon may go by way of Stanley Kubruck's 2001 or the Tykwer/Wachowskis' Cloud Atlas.  James Gray, Brian Helgeland, and Justin Chadwick have been knocking around for a while.  Brad Furman is a bit of a wild card.  We also have TV veteran John Wells, who executive produced and cowrote episodes of ER, one of the most popular and longest running television dramas of all time.  He was also the showrunner the first three seasons that boasted a majority of its strongest storylines.

But, what about the new and potentially exciting voices?  Steve McQueen and Ryan Coogler.  Granted, they're riskier to bet on.  McQueen's edgy style with period material and bold themes may end up being too much for the AMPAS, but Coogler, I have feeling his story is going to write itself.

1. George Clooney, The Monuments Men
2. Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale
3. John Wells, August: Osage County
4. Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
5. Bill Condon, The Fifth Estate

6. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
7. Coen brothers, Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
9. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
10. David O. Russell, Abscam Movie

11. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
12. Anton Corbijn, A Most Wanted Man
13. Ridley Scott, The Counselor
14. James Gray, Lowlife
15. Derek Cianfrance, The Place Beyond the Pines
16. Susanne Bier, Serena
17. Justin Chadwick, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
18. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
19. Guillaume Canet, Blood Ties
20. Baz Luhrmann, The Great Gatsby

21. Alexander Payne, Nebraska
22. Brian Helgeland, 42
23. Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
24. Spike Jonze, Her
25. Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman
26. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
27. Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring
28. Jason Reitman, Labor Day
29. Denis Villeneuve, Prisoners
30. Ron Howard, Rush

31. Scott Cooper, Out of the Furnace
32. John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
33. Brad Furman, Runner, Runner
34. Kar Wai Wong, The Grandmaster
35. Neill Blomkamp, Elysium
36. Spike Lee, Oldboy
37. Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club

Okay, fine, in last position at #38: Lee Daniels, The Butler

Thoughts?  Comments?