Best Actress 2013: Helen Hunt / Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker

Cinematographer Steven Bernstein directed and cowrote the screenplay Decoding Annie Parker with Adam Bernstein and Michael Moss about the real life Anne Parker (Samantha Morton) who is yet another member of her dwindling family to be struck with cancer.  She has an irrepressible spirit that pushes her through her illness allowing for her to finally benefit from the years of research conducted by geneticist Mary-Claire King (Helen Hunt) who established a ground-breaking connection between the disease and DNA.  The film sounds like it may have a co-lead situation, with, I imagine, weight being thrown to the baitier title role (Morton) for lead, but I really have no idea.  The crew includes editor Douglas Crise (Babel).  Filmed in Whittier, California, later 2011, Parker is supposed to release in March.

Now, Hunt is one of many Best Actress possibilities this year with a lead Oscar already under her belt.  There is enough of her company to choke a horse starting with 1982 winner Meryl Streep, to Shirley MacLaine, Emma Thompson, Julia Roberts, Nicole Kidman, Marion Cotillard, Kate Winslet, Sandra Bullock, and, now, Jennifer Lawrence.  But, how many of them can get realistically nominated this year.  It's pretty common for there to be at least one previous lead winner in the category.  The numerous times Streep has been nominated in the last three decades has been a big help in that department.  Two previous lead winners was actually pretty common after the occurrence first started in 1935 with Claudette Colbert and Katharine Hepburn in the mix.  There were two more times in the 1930s (1937, 1938), a bunch of times in the 1940s (1940, 1942, 1944, 1945, 1948, 1949) and the 1950s (1952, 1954, 1956, 1959), with 1951 offering the first year there were three: Hepburn, Vivien Leigh, and Jane Wyman.  It continued through the 1960s (1962, 1964, 1965), ending the decade with two years of a majority previous winners (1967 and 1968).  In the seventies, there were two years with two winners (1971, 1977) and two years with three (1973, 1978), with the phenomenon of the latter to have never occurred again since.  Two continued to be common in the 1980s (1981, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1986) through to 1990.  Since, it has only happened twice: 1995 and 2009 (Streep and Mirren).

This year, it seems next to certain that there will be at least two, if not possibly three.  I would bank on Streep and Kidman, for starters.  After that, it could be anyone's game.  Remember how close Marion Cotillard and Helen Mirren got for 2012?

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Best Actress 2014: Judi Dench, Philomena

English export Steve Coogan first received wide exposure in Tropic Thunder and the Night at the Museum franchise, but initially built his reputation as a comic as well as writing, producing, and starring in TV series like I'm Alan Partridge (for which there is an upcoming film).  Lately, he has had an indie hit with The Trip, and just got solid reviews at Sundance for The Look of Love.  Along with Jeff Pope, they adapted Martin Sixsmith's biographical book The Lost Child of Philomena Lee about a gay man dying of AIDS (played by Coogan) searching for his Irish mother (Judi Dench), who was conned into giving him up for adoption and agreeing to never seek him out before joining a convent.  The crew includes cinematographer Robbie Ryan (Wuthering Heights, Fish Tank), production designer Alan MacDonald (The Queen, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel), and costume designer Consolata Boyle (The Queen, The Iron Lady).  It doesn't hurt that the film was directed by Stephen Frears (The Queen, Mrs. Henderson Presents, The Grifters, Dangerous Liaisons).  Having just wrapped filming in Ireland, London, and Maryland, the IMDb lists the film as a 2014 release.

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All That Lip Sync

Catherine Zeta-Jones attempts to grab the first born of her
backup dancer ala Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom,
while lip-syncing

On Sunday night, I honestly thought that Catherine Zeta-Jones was singing "All That Jazz" from Chicago as part of the evenings homage to "movie musicals of the last decade."  I was pretty snockered, but I watched as her volume changed with her movement and thought she was actually doing it.  Apparently, though, according to many more observant viewers, she wasn't.  Many also commented on her stiff performance.  I guess she spent all her contortion movement in her mouth area.  When I rewatched the video, you can tell, right at the 2:23 mark, when she turns her back to the audience, that, yes, bitch ain't singing live.  Just disappointing.  I actually thought she was a respectable actress.  Now, I question if her Oscar win was as inflated as so many others out there (guess so).  You'd think, having not been relevant since, well, she sang "All That Jazz" in the movie version ten years ago, she would bring it for the hundreds of millions watching.  Jennifer Hudson, who followed her on stage, certainly did.  (As did Adele.)  Granted, Zeta-Jones had more physical activity going on in the number, but tell that to Chita Rivera or Bebe Neuwirth.  But, what about the flack Beyoncé caught for supposedly lip-syncing at the presidential inauguration?  I certainly joined in there.  I'd be a hypocrite not to here.  But, what about everyone else?  Is it a black/white thing?  Or is Zeta-Jones just a dried up old has-been who no one cares about and Beyoncé is directing her own fresh face for HBO and has a tour coming up?  I'd opt the latter.

What I also found interesting during my internet surfing was that when it got first reported over the internet, multiple outlets listed her song for that night as "Cell Block Tango."  Would that be report-syncing?  

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Best Actress 2013: Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse

Two years ago, Elizabeth Olsen, younger sister of the infamous twin business tycoons who got their start on TV's Full House, made quite an impression at Sundance in her film debut (!) Martha Marcy May Marlene.  The film's vagueness and unassumingly creepy flavor was a favorite of some, while its cryptic nature and uneven structure was lost on others.  Most people were in agreement, though: Olsen was outstanding.  She was shortlisted for an Oscar and had it not been such a competitive year, she might have made it in.  In interviews, she seems very sweet-natured, intelligent, and grounded.  She has gone on to work quite repeatedly since then, having opened the horror remake Silent House in 2012 and played the romantic lead in Josh Radnor's Liberal Arts.  She has also taken supporting roles in films starring such film legends like Jane Fonda and Sigourney Weaver.  This year, she has bit roles as Edie Parker in Beat movie Kill Your Darlings and in Spike Lee's remake of Oldboy, as well as a colead opposite Dakota Fanning in Very Good Girls.  She has also signed on to the dubious reboot of the Godzilla franchise, directed by a man with only one feature under his belt, 2010's cult VOD-hit Monsters.  Part of the charm being the cheesiness of the original, is there really room for it to strive to anything more than as pointless as the Raymond Burr and Matthew Broderick versions?  Anyhow, the girl needs commercial exposure, and hopefully, she will reap some rewards here.  Who knows, maybe third is the charm with the rebooting the franchise.  Or is it more?

In the meanwhile, she has Charlie Stratton's adaptation of soap opera writer Neal Bell's play from the Émile Zola novel Thérèse Raquin.  In this romantic thriller, Olsen will play the title character whose past criminal choices come back to haunt her ala Hamlet.  The cast includes Jessica Lange (who replaced Glenn Close), Oscar Isaac, Matt Lucas, and Tom Felton.  Filmed in Hungary and Serbia, the impressive crew includes composer Gabriel Yared (The English Patient, The Talented Mr. Ripley, Cold Mountain), cinematographer Florian Hoffmeister (The Deep Blue Sea), editors Celia Haining and Paul Tothill (Atonement), production designer Uli Hanisch (Cloud Atlas, The International), and costume designer Pierre-Yves Gayraud (Cloud Atlas).  Note that many of these artists have worked consistently with certain auteurs (Anthony Minghella, Joe Wright, Tom Tykwer).  LD Entertainment (Albert Nobbs, Biutiful, Silent House) will handle distribution.  It will be interesting to see how Olsen fares in this period role, which had at one time both Kate Winslet and then Jessica Biel (!) attached, as everything she has done up until now has been so contemporary.  Fingers crossed.  Love this girl and want nothing more to see her succeed.

Her role in the Oldboy remake will probably be supporting and Lee doesn't have a good track record for Oscar attention, though it was wise for Olsen to work with a director who has helped changed the commercial and artistic landscape of film over the decades he has been working.  Both Rooney Mara and Mia Wasikowska turned down the role.  The cast includes Josh Brolin, Samuel L. Jackson, and Michael Imperioli.  Mark Protosevich (The Cell, I Am Legend, Thor) adapted the movie from Garon Tsuchiya's story of Nobuaki Minegishi's comic.  Lee had his editor Barry Alexander Brown cut the film.  Steven McQueen's DOP Sean Bobbitt, who has The Place Beyond the Pines and Seven Years a Slave coming out, did the camerawork.  Bruce Hornsby (!) who has previously collaborated with Lee No, that would be Gabriel Yared (Anthony Minghella's guy) who composed the score.  Ben Affleck's production designer Sharon Seymour was also on board.  Ruth E. Carter (Malcolm, Amistad) designed the costumes.  Filmed this passed Fall in New Orleans, newish distributor Film District (Drive, Looper) is set to release movie on October 11th.

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Best Actress 2013: Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman

Ralph Fiennes follows up his freshman directing effort Coriolanus with The Invisible Woman.  Abi Morgan (The Iron Lady, Shame) adapted Claire Tomalin's book about the relationship between actress Nelly Ternan (Felicity Jones) and Charles Dickens (Fiennes).  Their considerable age difference as well as the fact that Dickens was a married man managed to destroy her reputation.  Sounds similar to Effie.  Fiennes English Patient costar Kristen Scott Thomas is also in the cast.  The crew includes production designer Maria Djurkovic (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Hours), and costume designer Michael O'Connor (Jane Eyre, The Duchess).  Jones bursted onto the scene in 2011 with the romantic drama Like Crazy.  Filmed in April of last year in Middlesex, Sony Picture Classics will distribute the movie sometime this year.

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Best Actress 2013: Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

I've posted on Margo Martindale and Meryl Streep being likely Oscar nominees (and frontrunners for the win) for August: Osage County come a year from now.  But, what about Julia Roberts?  And, for which category?  She will play Streep's daughter Barbara Weston, a wife and mother dealing with a cheating husband and an addictive coping mechanism.  The character is a lead in its own right.  Amy Morton played her on Broadway and lost to Deanna Dunagan for the Tony, who originated the role of mother Violet.  Chances are, Roberts isn't looking at a potential win, but, if she is, it's probably in the supporting category.  It'll be interesting to see what will happen if she is nominated alongside Martindale, who has the smaller, but scene-chewing role.

Two leads in the same category, either male or female, haven't been nominated for Oscar since Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon as Thelma & Louise in 1991.  The occurrence wasn't that uncommon in the 1950s and 1960s.  It happened three times in the 1970s with Sleuth, Network and The Turning Point, and then three more times in the span of a year with Terms of Endearment, The Dresser, and then Amadeus the following year.  It has become obsolete in the last twenty years.

Now, why hasn't it occurred since?  My theory is: why have two of your actors compete against each other, when you can give them each a shot at winning?  That's what Chicago did ten years ago, and it almost paid off completely, if it weren't for The Hours doing the exact same thing.  The English Patient and Training Day also managed one win out of a category break.  Notes on a Scandal, Secrets & Lies, Brokeback Mountain, The Master all managed at least two nods from distributing the role designations, but no win.  The Kids Are All Right, The Shawshank Redemption, and Frost/Nixon weren't so fortunate.  With a lot of the aforementioned films that were successfully campaigned in two different categories, an argument could be made to justify it (i.e. the story of Chicago being told through Roxie's eyes, Ennis Del Mar's arc, etc).  But, could an argument be made today for breaking up Thelma & Louise?  There's just no way.  They each have their own journey and are both on the screen during almost the entire film, with each having some of their own scenes.  Amadeus had his own story, as well as being the title character, but Salieri was the driving force of the story.  Could we see a return?  We'll just have to wait and see when the film opens and the new Oscar season begins.

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Best Actress 2013: Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco

Now that Deadline reports TWC is finalizing details on a distribution deal with Grace of Monaco, it appears that Nicole Kidman will be throwing down for lead this year instead of next.  Harvey Weinstein may be funding the campaigns for what might be the two frontrunners for Best Actress.  My initial hunch was that it would be another year before Grace of Monaco hit.  Filming wrapped not too long ago.  And it was not unheard of for a movie to prepare for such a lengthy post-production period.  In fact, Nicole Kidman's The Hours wrapped early Spring 2001 and didn't hit theaters until over 1 1/2 years later.  Director Olivier Dahan finished La vie en rose about this time of year and then debuted his film a year later in Berlin, with a Spring opening that maintained buzz for the rest of its release year.  And, I figured Kidman wouldn't go against her Hours costar Meryl Streep, as well as her bestie Naomi Watts--who is also playing a princess--in a year top-heavy with Best Actress biographies.  She's more fearless that we anticipate.  Still, even based on a real-life figure, was Grace Kelly such a compelling figure off stage?  On screen, she was a movie star with a special quality that induced gawking.  But, the perceived lack of the extreme drama Oscar loves to lap up instills little faith that the wait will be worth it for Kidman.  And, with lensing finished, will she quit the Botox now that it's no longer necessary for her to look 32 years of age in the context of her artistry?  And, how much mileage will her detractors get out of making a big deal of the gap?  And, how shrewd were the timing of the distribution announcement and first official pictures?

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Best Actress 2013: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (for the win)

Now that we have a Best Actress 2012, who will be Best Actress 2013?  I'm positive Jennifer Lawrence will make another trip up to the Oscar stage in the near future (before she's 30, easy), will 2013 be a repeat winner?  Blame Katharine Hepburn for winning two Oscars back-to-back in her 60s.  Blame Harvey Weinstein. Blame a great Tony Award-winning role.  Blame the fact that it's being played by the most respected working actress today.  But, even with her third win just a year ago after a decades long drought, for the time being, I'm calling Meryl Streep for Best Actress 2013.  She plays Violet Weston in Tracy Letts' August: Osage County, the Oklahoman matriarch of a large drama-addled family who suffers from a prescription problem and must deal with her recently AWOL husband (Sam Shepard).  Letts also wrote Bug and Killer Joe.  This is John Wells' follow-up to The Company Men, but he's known primarily for the hit TV show ER, as well as the recent Shameless.  The cast includes Julia Roberts, Juliette Lewis, Julianne Nicholson, Ewan McGregor, Benedict Cumberbatch, Abigail Breslin, Dermot Mulroney, Chris Cooper, and future Oscar-nominee Margo Martindale.  TWC will distribute the movie filmed this passed Fall in Oklahoma, as well as Nicole Kidman's Grace of Monaco.  Weinstein is producing along with Argonauts George Clooney and Grant Heslov.  Cinematography was by Adriano Goldman (Sin Nombre), editor is Oscar-winning Stephen Mirrione (Traffic, Babel), and production designer is David Gropman (Life of Pi, The Cider House Rules).

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Oscar 2012 Predictions: Lessons Learned

So, another Oscar telecast has passed.  People have weighed in on the quality of host and broadcast, as well as the winners/losers.  I was full of food and drink, so my impression of the ceremony was more positive than it had any right to be.  Accusations of homophobia and sexism were lobbed across the internet, but flew over my head.  Seth MacFarlane was pretty solid, though he was no Tina & Amy.  A step above Ricky Gervais perhaps and miles better than James Franco.  I actually enjoyed the homage to "Hollywood musicals of the last ten years," loved the overall Broadway vibe, and thought that Jennifer Hudson batted it out of the park.  Sometimes I forget that girl can sing.  Adele and Babs brought it as well.  There were some odd choices (like the finale, as well as the Michelle Obama bit), for what was an unspectacular, but definitely watchable show.

In the predicting game, one can never really say, "I told you so," when, in all truth, any who wins may as well have won by one vote, unless, of course, as there was last night in the Sound Effects Editing category, there is a tie.  I'm a bit embarrassed not that I predicted effects-laden adventure Best Picture nominee Life of Pi, but that I was so certain Zero Dark Thirty was out of contention.  While it was an action-oriented Best Picture nominee, I was almost certain that controversy would take it out of taking any awards home.  That wasn't the case for Kathryn Bigelow's film, nor was it the case for James Bond movie Skyfall.  Others incorrectly had Best Picture winner Argo pegged.  But, what this year has proved for the SEE award is that sophisticated explosive action is sophisticated explosive action, whether you're nominated for Best Picture or not.

As for the nine categories that Gold Derby was unanimous on (for all intents and purposes), they were correct and it made no sense to question.  On the next eleven, where there were frontrunners with minor, but visible dissent, it paid off to go with group-think on eight of the categories.  Sticking with Lawrence paid off.  The group was (half) right about Zero Dark Thirty winning sound effects editing.  Even with two winners, I was destined to get this one incorrect.  Edward Douglas was the only one who predicted Skyfall.  Thelma Adams, Matt Atchity, Michael Hogan, Richard Horgan, Michael Musto, Kevin Polowy, Keith Simanton, Alex Suskind, Peter Travers, Chuck Walton, Susan Wloszczyna were behind Zero Dark Thirty.

They were right about the shorts, except for the one I deviated on for documentary short Inocente.  My rationale there was mostly the narrative, as well as the strong social media campaign.  Thom Geler, Dave Karger, Tariq Khan, Anne Thompson, Peter Travers, and Glenn Whipp also called it for a win.

I never understood those who filed behind The Hobbit for makeup.  The ones who went with Les Misérables: Thelma Adams, Edward Douglas, Pete Hammond, Richard Horgan, Tariq Khan, Ramin Setoodeh, Paul Sheehan, Keith Simanton, Anne Thompson, and Peter Travers.

The lesson with animated feature was that when you have The Golden Globe and BAFTA winner staring you in the face, you probably should just follow along.  Kudos to Anne Thompson and Brad Brevet for getting Brave right.  For as long as BAFTA has been handing out the prize, the eventual Oscar winner got it or The Globe.

The more unpredictable races both resulted in wins for Django Unchained.  The AMPAS ultimately were in love with this movie beyond what my negative bias would permit me to see.  Talk about the sign posts being in plain sight.  Obviously, the precursors were there as red flags.  It didn't really matter that the screenplay isn't all that good and lacks sound narrative structure and memorable dialogue.  And it didn't matter that Christophe Waltz didn't give us a performance that distinguished itself from his Oscar-winning turn in Inglourious Basterds.  Though, it certainly helped that he was a leading character who basically drove a great deal of the story.   Michael Musto, Tom O'Neil, Richard Rushfield, and Paul Sheehan were all in for Django in both categories.  Lodge, Atchity, Douglas, Hogan, Horgan, Rosen, Simanton, and Travers all missed one of its wins, but got the other.

Adams, Douglas, Hammond, Hogan, Karger, Khan, Lodge, O'Neil, Steve Pond, Sheehan, and Thompson all had Ang Lee for the directing win.  The logic here was that out of the few precursors the field of five carried, Lee was the only one who got small, but plentiful recognitions.

Major props go to Geler and Thompson for being the only ones to call Lincoln's second win for production design.  I'm not sure I would have ever had a chance at calling this race.

The biggest lesson for me was that if the prediction doesn't feel right, then there is probably something wrong with the prediction.  I felt that way about everything I got wrong: original screenplay, supporting actor, production design, animated feature, and sound effects editing.

All in all, I could have easily scored 22, if I took my blinders off.  I'll have to settle for 19/24, which, at least, is a personal record.  How did you do?

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Is This the End for Jennifer Lawrence's Silver Lining?

Tonight, Jennifer Lawrence collected either her final award for Silver Linings Playbook, or her second-to-last.  The fact that it was an Independent Spirit Award, and Playbook is backed by TWC is another conversation, another post.  (I think we can all agree that in varying degrees of "independence," what it took to get ISA competitor Beasts of the Southern Wild to production and then on to Sundance and $12.4M was a much different journey than Harvey's crown jewel for awards season.  But, I digress ...)  If Lawrence wins tomorrow, it's pretty clear that Hollywood loves her to the point that they won't want to wait too long until they give her a second Oscar (think Jodie Foster).  If she loses (to Emmanuelle Riva), the assumption is that she'll be around long enough to try a few more times.  But, the point of this post was the black backless Lanvin dress she wore tonight.  With an asymmetrical bottom cut and a bow at the waist, the predominant feature was the art deco choker holding up the geometrically-designed front.  If you look at the dress being worn by the toothpick in the picture next to Lawrence, it's pretty obvious this design is for anorexics only with dried up breasts (the opposite of Lawrence).  Even then, I can't drum up much excitement.  It's designed to create the illusion of "skinny" in the worst possible way.  It just doesn't make any sense.  Perhaps how the front slims down to the waist is what bothers me most, and the way in which the straps help to tighten her front look so chintzy with a strained arbitrariness.  Still, it could be worse.  Don't get me wrong.  She looks hot, especially in those heels.  It looks great from the back.  And, I like that Lawrence takes all these crazy chances.  Look at her smile.  So cute, but she looks kind of over it, like, "if I have to smile one more fucking time ..."  But, with this, as well as The Golden Globes dress, I'm wondering if she's trying every which way to display her tits, but loose.  Makes me yearn for her Baywatch 2010 Oscar getup.

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Best Actress 2013: Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred

(from top left clockwise) Shirley MacLaine poses with a come
hither look directed at Christopher Plummer; she cuddles
with a kitten MacLaine will later lock in a bedroom with
another cat and force into losing her feline virginity;
MacLaine tries to carry on a conversation with one of her
former lives, which has been reincarnated as an orange

Shirley MacLaine has been nominated six times for an Academy Award (five for lead Actress and one for writing, directing and producing a documentary about China), all in the course of a time period that is now smaller than the amount of years which have passed since she won her long overdue Best Actress Oscar for Terms of Endearment almost 30 years ago.  She flirted with the possibility of another nomination shortly thereafter with Madame Sousatzka, Steel Magnolias, and Postcards from the Edge.  MacLaine kept working consistently on the silver screen as well as TV, even having a career spike in the mid-2000s, taking on younger female costars like Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Aniston, and Cameron Diaz.  When none of those films hit big, her career quieted down slightly until last year's Bernie came rolling along.  Since then, she has appeared on popular series Downton Abbey and has a slew of films in preproduction.  She has wrapped a role in The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, as well as Elsa & Fred in December.  Michael Radford (Il Postino) directed and cowrote the latter screenplay with Anna Pavignano, adapted from a 2005 Argentinian film about two people, played by MacLaine and recent Oscar winner Christopher Plummer, who fall in love in their twilight years.  On the crew is cinematographer Michael McDonough (Winter's Bone, Albert Nobbs), editor Peter Boyle (The Hours),  and costume designer Gary Jones (The Talented Mr. Ripley, The English Patient).  Filmed on a $10M budget in New Orleans and Rome, the movie will release sometime this year.  MacLaine has been in the news lately thanks to her daughter, who has just come out with a less than flattering book depicting her relationship with the batty transcendentalist mother.

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Best Actress 2013: Naomi Watts, Sunlight Jr.

Lauri Collyer (Sherrybaby) directed her own screenplay Sunlight Jr., a relational drama about a convenience store attendent (Naomi Watts) who lives in a motel with her handicapped boyfriend (Matt Dillon).  If their lives weren't tough enough, she gets pregnant, loses her job, and I imagine more bleakness follows.  Filmed in Clearwater, Florida, the cast includes Norman Reedus and Tess Harper.  Of course, with Diana on the horizon, biographies almost always trump anything else, so, unless her Melissa experiences tragedy of epic proportions like losing her husband to a drunk driver or tsunami, this film's Best Actress chances are probably as dire as her character's circumstances.

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Best Supporting Actress 2013: Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man

The screenplay comes from Frank Cottrell Boyce and Andy Paterson (the team behind Hilary and Jackie) who adapted Eric Lomax's autobiographical novel about a World War II POW (played partly by Colin Firth), who must make peace with his past.  Nicole Kidman plays the wife of the older version of his character.  The part could be lead or supporting, though I'd wager the latter (I haven't read the book).  Rachel Weisz was originally cast, but when scheduling conflicts prevented her from taking the role, Firth personally asked Kidman to replace her.  The cast includes Stellan Skarsgard.  The crew includes composer David Hirschfelder (Elizabeth, Shine), as well as a host of others who worked on director Jonathan Teplitzky's Burning Man.  Filmed last year in London, Scotland, and Australia, on a budget of $26M, the movie will most definitely release sometime this year.  Does brown hair tend to play down Kidman's looks?  (Think the Diane Arbus film.)  It also seems to distract from her facial enhancements.  Or is it me?

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Oscar Predictions 2012 (Final)

Well, the Oscars are this weekend.  Do you have your predictions ready?  I can't say that I have many horses in the race.  The films that I really loved this year either weren't nominated or their chances have been sidelined by controversy (*cough* Zero Dark Thirty *cough*).  So, right now, I'm mostly about how good I can be at reading the tea leaves in an ever uncertain year.  I was hoping to do better than my usual 18/24, but, this year, that may be as hard as it appears.  I still find bias creeping in from the opposite end of the spectrum.  I really detested the last two hours of Django Unchained, which has actually fared well in the precursors in two categories.  What complicates matters is that though, on paper, wins appear inevitable, its divisiveness may do in its odds of winning.  And that I ultimately didn't like the film doesn't help.  Another blind spot for me might be Lincoln.  I'm only calling it for Best Actor, but might it sneak in for director and/or production design?  That would be a strange combination of victories, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.  A less polarizing film is Skyfall, which was a new high for the 50-year old James Bond franchise.  Will it be honored only with Best Song, or did The Academy love it a little more?  If it did, why didn't it make the Best Picture field?  If Argo wins as film of the year, it will be one of the weaker wins in history, with a likely two other trophies, not including Best Director.  Will voters give it more wins out of pity?

I'm sensing a good showing for Amour, but not clear on just what categories it will take.  Did you get on the Emmanuelle bandwagon with Tariq Khan, or stick with weakish frontrunner Jennifer Lawrence, who had been in the lead for five months now and go with the AMPAS rewarding Amour for its screenplay?  Silver Linings Playbook must pick up at least one win for acting, no?  If it's not Lawrence, long-shot Robert De Niro will win, right?  Every movie to cover all acting categories in Academy history has taken at least one thespian win home.

Where am I placing a good share of my bets?  Life of Pi.  If the Ang Lee train loads up on Oscar night, I don't want to be wrong and am calling it for every category its competitive in.

Best Picture
50% Argo
42.5% Lincoln
5% Silver Linings Playbook
2.5% Life of Pi
0%   Les Misérables
0%   Amour
0%   Django Unchained
0%   Beasts of the Southern Wild
0%   Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
35% Ang Lee
30% Steven Spielberg
25% David O. Russell
10% Michael Haneke
0%   Benh Zeitlin

Best Actress
42.5% Jennifer Lawrence
37.5% Emmanuelle Riva
17.5% Jessica Chastain
2.5%   Naomi Watts
0%      Quvenzhané Wallis

It will be BAFTA winner Riva's birthday on Oscar night and she will have flown all the way over from France, despite her fears.  It's a lovely narrative behind a great performance, but will it be enough?  Silver Linings Playbook's MVP is Jennifer Lawrence, to a lesser extent, its screenplay.  However, 1) it's not "her [character's] movie," (though her performance suggests otherwise), 2) it's partly a comedy, and 3) it may be too early to crown her with Oscar.  Frenchman Jean Dujardin will be handing out the Oscar to the Best Actress winner.  Will enough voters have seen the Frenchwoman's movie?

Best Actor
100% Daniel Day-Lewis
0%     Hugh Jackman
0%     Joaquin Phoenix
0%     Bradley Cooper
0%     Denzel Washington

Day-Lewis already had this when he made the cover of Time (others had him shrewdly pegged for a win earlier than this), but with Lincoln seemingly having lost steam in just about every category it's nominated in, what appreciation for the film may be distilled down to a win for the man playing the title character.

Best Supporting Actress
98.5% Anne Hathaway
1%      Sally Field
0.5%   Amy Adams
0%      Jacki Weaver
0%      Helen Hunt

I wonder if the backlash against Hathaway will be big enough.  Never say never.  But, it seems like such a done deal.  Not awarding her at this point, like with Argo, would just be mean, no matter how much I've made fun of her.

Best Supporting Actor
32.5%  Robert De Niro
30%    Tommy Lee Jones
30%    Christopher Waltz
5%      Alan Arkin
2.5%   Philip Seymour Hoffman

This is just a crapshoot.  And, again, I'm taking the suicide route and going with the actor with the most Oscars who hasn't previously won anything this whole season.  I'm also betting that the performance of Waltz, who has the precursors on his side, will be seen as too similar to his other work.  Personal bias is also affecting me here.  SO much.  Don't listen to me when it comes to this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay
35%    Argo
32.5% Silver Linings Playbook
32.5% Lincoln
0%      Life of Pi
0%      Beasts of the Southern Wild

The WGA-win for Argo sealed the deal for me, though it's still pretty close.

Best Original Screenplay
35%    Amour
32.5% Django Unchained (aka My Achilles Heel)
17.5% Moonrise Kingdom
15%    Zero Dark Thirty
0%      Flight

Who knows, Moonrise Kingdom could upset.  With gas still in its tank from the WGA win, Zero Dark Thirty could rally back and claim what is rightfully his; or, gulp, the AMPAS could follow The Globes and BAFTA and reward that unclean film Django Unchained.  My Amour prediction is pretty much a suicide guess, if you consider that most Oscar winners in this category have won the WGA (Amour wasn't nominated).  In the instances that it didn't, The King's Speech and, another foreign language film, Talk to Her won BAFTA.  Good Will Hunting took The Globe.  Almost Famous had the BFCA.  All signs point to Django, but I'm allowing personal bias to get in the way.  I'm saying that the violence will have turned off the AMPAS.  Though, they may want to honor the anti-slavery movie with a lot of violence, considering they just may well practically shut out the anti-slavery movie with little.  Still, I'm assuming the AMPAS will have seen Amour, been moved deeply, and vote with their hearts, artificial and otherwise.  Notice how both my suicide guesses involve betting against Django?  This could be my downfall.

And the Rest:
Cinematography: Life of Pi
     2. Skyfall
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Editing: Argo
Production Design: Anna Karenina
     2. Les Misérables
     3. Life of Pi
     4. Lincoln
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Makeup: Les Misérables
Score: Life of Pi
     2. Argo
     3. Skyfall
Song: Skyfall
     2. Les Misérables
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
     2. Skyfall 
     3. Argo
     4. Life of Pi
Sound Editing: Life of Pi
     2. Skyfall
     3. Argo 
     4. Zero Dark Thirty
Foreign Language: Amour
Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
     2. Brave
     3. Frankenweenie
     4. ParaNorman
Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man 
     2. The Invisible War
Animated Short: Paperman
Documentary Short: Inocente
     2. Open Heart
     3. Mondays at Racine
Live Action Short: Curfew

Prediction Count:
Life of Pi (5)
Les Misérables (3)
Argo (3)
Silver Linings Playbook (2)
Amour (2)
Anna Karenina (2)
Lincoln (1)
Skyfall (1)
Django Unchained (0)
Zero Dark Thirty (0)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (0)

Likeliest Wins from Most Likely to Least:
Life of Pi: Visual Effects > Cinematography > Sound Editing = Score > Director > Production Design > Sound Mixing > Picture > Screenplay > Editing > Song
Pi could be the big winner of the evening, as Ang Lee's last two big Oscar pushes both didn't do too badly.  So, how many?  One, two, three, four or ... five?  Five is The Aviator territory.  Still, how much is too much?  Three or four predicted wins seems so much safer.  But, I find myself, along with Silver Linings Playbook, covering all the bases, because I don't know what to leave out.

Les Misérables: Sup. Actress > Sound Mixing > Makeup > Production Design > Song > Costume Design > Actor > Picture
Oscar is choosing to honor the movie musical genre on Oscar night.  Will it shower the only musical nominated with multiple wins?  Three seems to be the minimum.  Will it tie Pi?

Argo: Editing > Picture > Screenplay > Sound Editing = Score > Sound Mixing > Sup. Actor
The likely Best Picture winner may make history with some of the fewest wins ever, but it appears it's en route to taking two other Oscars home.  Could it sneak in one or two more?

Silver Linings Playbook: Actress > Sup. Actor > Screeenplay > Director > Editing > Picture > Actor > Sup. Actress
SLP could either go home empty-handed, take three big ones, or something in between.  It's Harvey, though.  He has to take something, right?  There's always Django.  Here's another way of looking at it: in 2009, he only got an Oscar for Christoph Waltz, who was the clear favorite in the category.  In 2008, he got two actors Oscars for different films.  Could he do it again?  My thinking is to bet on Lawrence and De Niro.  One of them is bound to win, right?  (I'm so stubborn.)

Amour: Foreign Language Film > Screenplay = Actress > Director > Picture
Amour will win one, but probably no more than three.

Anna Karenina: Costume Design > Production Design > Score > Cinematography
The other non-BP nominee who could be a player on Oscar night.

Lincoln: Actor > Supporting Actor = Director > Screenplay > Production Design > Picture > Editing > Sound Editing > Costume Design > Score > Cinematography > Sup. Actress
The once perceived frontrunner may go home with only one Oscar for Best Actor.  Daniel Day-Lewis is the film's MVP.  Could he carry Tommy Lee Jones with him?  Or Steven Spielberg?

Skyfall: Song > Cinematography > Sound Editing > Score > Sound Mixing
Nominated for five awards, it's possible that it could take four awards.  But, having not been able to achieve a BP nomination, will that negate its chances?  Definitely will go home with at least one.

Django Unchained: Screenplay > Supporting Actor > Sound Editing > Cinematography > Picture
I hope Django goes home empty-handed.  The smart money would be to predict it will take at least one home.  The only problem is which one, and how much would it suck to pick the wrong one?  That's why I'm going with zero, along with predicting two for SLP.  That may cost me three points out of twenty-four.  Am I willfully ignoring the effectiveness of the Harvey machine here?

Zero Dark Thirty: Screenplay = Sound Editing > Actress > Editing > Picture
Thirty is likely to go home empty-handed.  I would prefer to be pleasantly surprised, even if it costs me a point(s) on predictions.

Beasts of the Southern Wild: Screenplay > Actress > Director > Picture
A dark-horse contender that probably will not win anything.  Sorry hushpuppy.


Gold Derby Addendum (added 2/22)
For shits and giggles, I thought I'd list the Gold Derby consensus.  They are pretty much in agreement on nine categories.  Another eleven categories has a predominance of group think (which I diverge from a couple of times).  Two more categories they go 50/50 and then two more are almost three-way races.  If you want to go with group-think, it can take you through almost all the categories, but you're on your own with Director and Production Design.  The only movies which overlap in the four more uncertain categories are Lincoln and Django Unchained.  Just how much the AMPAS loved those two films may be indicated on Oscar night.


All-In (with a couple of dissenters, but not a significant amount)
Picture: Argo
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Sup. Actress: Anne Hathaway
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Song: Skyfall
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Foreign Language Film: Amour
Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man

Heavily Favored
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, with an Emmanuelle Riva brigade
     *I'm going with the favorite
Adapted Screenplay: Argo, with a small Lincoln contingent
     *I'm going with the favorite
Editing: Argo, with some unbelievably suggesting Zero Dark Thirty will be the winner
     *I'm going with the favorite (which is really a gimme)
Cinematography: Life of Pi, with some thinking Skyfall could take it
     *I'm going with the favorite
Score: Life of Pi, with a tiny group thinking Lincoln or Argo
     *I'm going with the favorite
Makeup: The Hobbit, with a healthy set of backers behind Les Misérables
     *I'm going with the underdog, I guess
Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty, but with three other films being predicted by at least three
     *I'm going with one of the underdogs, which I'm not so sure is an underdog, Life of Pi

Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph, with a small group calling Frankenweenie
     *I'm going with the favorite
Animated Short: Paperman, with some others calling Adam and Dog or Head Over Heels
     *I'm going with the favorite
Documentary Short: Open Heart, with Inocente having a strong enough backing
     *I'm going with Inocente

Live Action Short: Curfew, though every single nominee has someone predicting it
    *I'm going with the favorite

50/50
Director: Steven Spielberg/Ang Lee, with edge to Spielberg
     *I'm flipping the coin for Lee

50/50 with possible spoiler
Production Design: Anna Karenina vs. Les Misérables, with tiny group of Life of Pi predictors
     *Going with Anna Karenina

Hot Mess
Sup. Actor: Robert De Niro in lead, with Tommy Lee Jones close behind, and then Christophe Waltz
     *I'm going with the presumed favorite, though it was before he collected so much support
Original Screenplay: Django Unchained in lead, with Zero Dark Thirty close behind, and then Amour
     *I'm going with the third likeliest

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Best Actress 2013: Hilary Swank, You're Not You

Well, she's back!  After weathering the professional shit-storm that resulted from appearing at the birthday celebration of Chechnyan president Kadyrov, which resulted in getting dropped from her PR firm and then firing some of her team, Hilary Swank is after another Oscar. I guess.  I'm not sure how much luck she will have with the director of Nights in Rodanthe.  I'm really hoping that the fact she has two Oscars and [insert many names here] doesn't have one is just dumb luck, and the AMPAS will never nominate her for anything ever again.  Shana Feste and Jordan Roberts adapted the screenplay from the novel by Wildgen about a college student (Emmy Rossum) who develops a relationship with a woman dealing with ALS (Swank).  While it appears to be the story of Rossum's character, Swank has the baitier role, in what might be a co-lead situation.  She dropped The Dallas Buyer's Club and gave Jennifer Garner her sloppy seconds to star in this.  Filmed in L.A. last year, the cast includes Ali Larter, Marcia Gay Harden, Julian McMahon, Frances Fisher, Jason Ritter, and Loretta Devine.  Swank is a coproducer with Denise Di Novi.   It alway kills me to see pictures of Swank, because she looks so much like one of my friends.  I kind of freaks me out, especially since I really like my friend.

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Best Actress 2013: Kristen Wiig, Girl Most Likely

Formerly known as Imogene, Kristen Wiig's film is one of the few holdovers from TIFF that may be considered for Best Actress 2013. The title change and the July 19th release delay via Lionsgate doesn't inspire much confidence.  Wiig plays a playwright who stages a suicide in order to win back her boyfriend only to be place in the custody of her gambling addict mother, played by Annette Bening.  It filmed in New York two years ago from a script by Michelle Morgan, directed by the team of Shari Spring Berman and Robert Pulcini (American Splendor, The Nanny Diaries, Cinema Verite).  Collider found no chemistry between Wiig and her costar Darren Criss and thought that the movie was a weird mess of a thing.  Screen Daily: "Wiig does what she can in the part, but Michelle Morgan’s screenplay rarely crackles, which leaves Wiig falling back on her comedic bag of tricks that worked well during her celebrated run on Saturday Night Live but have started to feel overused."  Indie Wire: "But there is Kristen Wiig, and she once again proves her value. Whether smuggling a library book under her old phys ed shirt or weeping in the rain on a broken chair, she is adorable, heartfelt and smart."  THR: "This whole first part is smart and brassy, sparkling with Wiig’s inventive self-assertion."

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Best Actress 2013: Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall

What happened with Kate Beckinsale?  Too many Kates in the Hollywood kitchen?  Winslet, Cate Blanchett, Katherine Heigl?  (She probably wouldn't have fared much better than a Kristen, Jessica, or Jennifer)  She's talented.  She had a privileged film debut as Hero in Kenneth Branagh's Much Ado About Nothing.  She worked with James Ivory and Whit Stillman.  She had a rom-com hit with Serendipity.  She had an even bigger commercial venture with Pearl Harbor, though things did not go well between her and director Michael Bay (he said he hired her because she wasn't "too beautiful," yet suggested she work out more during filming).  She was delightfully bitchy in The Last Days of Disco and her American accent was alarming good in Laurel Canyon.  The Underworld franchise helped developed a larger fanbase for her, though she continued failing to capitalize off big budget projects like Van Helsing and Click, which didn't do terribly at the box-office.  And, when she headlined films that weren't that different quality-wise, they did quite badly.  Lately, she's been taking the love/hate interest role in such films as Contraband and the Total Recall remake.  She had a baity role as a reporter who must protect her source with Nothing But the Truth a few years ago, and has a similar-sounding part in this year's The Trials of Cate McCall, where she plays a lawyer in recovery who must defend a woman on appeal wrongly convicted of murder.  Filmed in the L.A. area and South Carolina last summer on a budget of $7M.  Karen Moncrieff (The Dead Girl) wrote, directed and coproduced Trials.

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Best Actress 2013: Annette Bening, Look of Love

This year 2013 carries with it great potential as it will feature Annette Bening in another lead role.  Isn't she just smashing?  I don't really care that she hasn't won an Oscar, and considering the lengths one has to go to nab one, I'm kind of glad she doesn't.  It's not really her style.  She's kind of above it all.  She seems to choose parts that appeal to her as an actress, whether on film or the stage, while keeping all the career-strategy noise at bay.  She has been nominated four times now.  After her gangbusters performance in The Grifters, she starred opposite several of Hollywood's leading men, before marrying Tinsel Town's penultimate single man and settling down into motherhood.  Once she hit forty, she came into her own with American Beauty, Being Julia, and The Kids Are All Right.  Her nominations are unusually spread out, so it may still be too early before she gets in the running again, if there's a model to go by.  But, who are we to complain if she rakes in another nod early, right?  Director Arie Posin cowrote Look of Love with Matthew Duffie (not to be confused with Steve Coogan's The Look of Love, which just screened at Sundance, and will probably force a title change on someone's part) about a widow played by Bening, who falls in love with a man who looks like her deceased husband played by Ed Harris.  The cast includes Robins Williams and Amy Brenneman.  The production designer is four-time-Oscar nominated Jeannine Claudia Oppewall (L.A. Confidential, Pleasantville, Seabiscuit, The Good Shepherd), and costumes are by three-time-nominated Judianna Makovsky (Pleasantville, Harry Potter I, Seabiscuit).  The involvement of two of director Gary Ross peop's begs the question: what is he up to?  After directing the enormously successful The Hunger Games last year, next up may be Civil War/Reconstruction drama The Free State of Jones.  Mentioning Ross begs the question: Does everything he touch turn to gold?  Love filmed early last year in L.A.

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Best Actress 2013: Michelle Pfeiffer, Malavita

Michelle Pfeiffer is working more consistently these days, and while she hasn't done anything as grand as her earlier work, it's just nice to see the legend out there and acting.  But, when you put the actress and the thriller genre together, there's generally a reason to get excited, no?  Okay, What Lies Beneath is the only movie that comes to mind to make my argument, but Malavita is directed by Luc Besson (who directe La Femme Nikita once upon a time), so the pairing holds a lot of promise.  Besson adapted Tonino Benacquista's novel (released in an English translation under the cringeworthy title Badfellas) about an American Mafia family called the Manzonis headed by Robert De Niro who relocates to a villa in Normandy under assumed identities.  Also in the cast are Tommy Lee Jones, and Dianna Agron.  If anything, at the very least, this sounds like what might be a fun and exciting romp.  For some reason, initially, the casting made me think this was going to be a comedy; I take De Niro so less seriously these days.  Besson is producing with Martin Scorsese as an executive producer.  Filmed last Summer mostly in the Orne region of France, Relativity Media set the release date for October 18th.

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Best Actress 2013: Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby

It will be interesting to see how The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby films will be marketed.  (Will one be held off until next year, will they be released simultaneously? etc)  One is subtitled His and told from the perspective of the husband (played by James McAvoy) and the other, Hers, the wife (Jessica Chastain).  Not much is known about the script, other than the story concerns a marriage between a man working in the restaurant business and a woman going back to school.  The films will reunite Chastain with The Help costar Viola Davis.  Bill Hader, William Hurt, Ciarán Hinds, and Isabelle Huppert are also in the cast.  Ned Benson is an East Coast writer/director making his feature length debut(s).  One of his scripts (or an amalgam of the two) made The Black List six years ago with a couple of mentions.  The cinematographer is Christoper Blauvelt (Meek's Cutoff, The Bling Ring).

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Best Director Oscar 2012 Prediction: Ang Lee, Life of Pi

This year is so crazy with predicting the Oscar race.  But, that's what we ask for, isn't it?  We want a real race.  And, of course, we'll never live in a time, where all five nominees in every category are of equal top critical and commercial success.  We have to take what we can get.  Cinesnatch egregiously reported that the Best Director race months ago was between Steven Spielberg and Ben Affleck.  As it turned out, Affleck wasn't nominated by the AMPAS and the buzz on Lincoln has cooled some.  Things weren't so cut and dried.  What makes matters murkier is that the awards bodies that didn't line up behind Affleck, threw their weight towards other directors who weren't nominated for Oscar like Kathryn Bigelow and Paul Thomas Anderson.  Only Ang Lee for Life of Pi has been singled out multiple times.  Three, in fact, which include the film critics of Kansas City, London, and Las Vegas.  A contingent of Gold Derby experts are filing behind his chances including Douglas, Hammond, Khan, Lodge, and Thompson.  National Society went with Michael Haneke for Amour and one Gold Derby pundit (Rosen, though I could have sworn Lodge had him up at the top recently) are predicting him; I just find the film too intimate for the AMPAS to award so a lofty prize.  David O. Russell was chosen by the dubious Satellite Awards and some film festivals, though he's probably more competitive in the screenplay category.  There are still some Gold Derby experts, led by Jeff Wells, who thinks he's going to take the prize (Adams, Horgan, homophobe Setoodeh).  And, I wonder how his "reformed" caustic personality will play with Oscar voters in general.  Newbie Ben Zeitlin falls into the "lucky to be nominated" category, but, this year, who knows.  The group think is with Lincoln's Steven Spielberg, who has won zero honors for directing in connection with this film.

The race does seem to boil down to Spielberg and Lee.  Both veterans, Spielberg with two wins under his belt and Lee with one.  Lee has slowly worked his way up with the AMPAS, first having directed a BP nominee without getting a director's nod, then managing both, and then doing so again, winning for director, but losing BP.  The natural progression this year would be for Lee to win both, I suppose.

I'm really kind of shocked how Lincoln has gross over $170M, nabbed twelve nominations and has seemingly lost its mojo, having really not performed that well through the awards circuit.  Did the marketing team mess up on this one with an unintended sense of entitlement?  Lincoln was such an "Important" movie, right?  Made the most money out of all the nominees.  And was right up there with many of the other films on the review front.  Talk about blowing it.  Having not taken one honor for directing, I'll give the edge to Lee, who is easy to see as a two-time Oscar winner.  Besides, you can do worse this year than cover all your bases on Pi.  But, I wouldn't be surprised if Spielberg rallies for an eleventh hour surge.

Who do I think should have won?  Bigelow, naturally.

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Best Sound Mixing Oscar 2012 Prediction: Les Misérables

Now, if I'm understanding correctly, the sound mixing teams take all the recorded audio, sounds, etc, and are responsible for putting everything together and smoothing out all the bumps, adjusting levels, etc.  The award is for Best Sound Mixing, but used to be called Best Sound.  The winner of this award isn't always nominated for the companion sound editing award (though it does work mostly in the reverse direction).  Oftentimes, eventual Best Picture winners and near misses make the grade, as well as action pictures.  One giveaway, though, that makes my guess a lazy one, is that musicals are often favored for the win.  Chicago and Dreamgirls took this in a cakewalk, and even that God-awful The Phantom of the Opera got a nomination, along with its Andrew Lloyd Webber precursor Evita.  Ray wasn't technically a musical, but it too won.  Going back further, there were wins for Cabaret, Fiddler on the Roof, Hello, Dolly!, Oliver!, (what is it with exclamation points on musicals?) The Sound of Music, My Fair Lady, and on and on, etc.  Moulin Rouge! did lose to Black Hawk Down in 2001, which may be something to consider.  Taking note that Les Misérables is also a BP nominee, but much was made about almost all of its singing being recorded live, it strikes me as kind of insane if it doesn't win, right?  Gold Derby mostly agrees.  Argo (Setoodeh), Life of Pi, and Skyfall (Feinberg, Lodge) are spillovers from the Sound Editing category, with Lincoln (Horgan) rounding out the five.

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Best Sound Editing Oscar 2012 Prediction: Life of Pi

Strict action and fantasy films tend to do well in the sound editing category.  This is the sound award, that if I'm understanding the process in general correctly, that is designed to recognize the artistic teams which capture and create the artificial sounds utilized during the course of a movie beyond the dialogue while filming.  For the last decade, it helped to be a BP nominee (or Field of Tenner).  It was also a very positive sign if the movie was nominated additionally for Sound Mixing.  This year, history suggests that the main contenders are Argo, Life of Pi, and Skyfall, with the edge going to Pi (a Hugo-like entry, if you will).  Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained are also nominated.  But, who is to say?  Rules are meant to be thrown out of the window.  In hindsight, it appears the toughest year to call may have been when The Hurt Locker swept Avatar under the rug.  This year, half of the Gold Derby pundits are calling Kathryn Bigelow's followup Zero for the win.  I just don't what they're smoking.  Perhaps they know something I don't.  I think my Pi choice is the lazy guess.  Five chose Argo (Khan, O'Neil, Rosen, Whipp, and homophobe Setoodeh).  Skyfall (Douglas, Feinberg, Lodge) and Pi (Geler, Hammond, Thompson) each captured the attention of three.  One wonders if Best Picture winner Argo is in need of additional wins for some kind of justification.  But, then I think of Crash and Dolly Parton and "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp."  And the ones that do well, usually do so effortlessly.

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Best Documentary Oscar 2012 Prediction: Searching for Sugar Man

Last year, I correctly predicted Undefeated for Best Documentary.  I can't really tell you what my logic was, because my knee-jerk reaction right now is, "Why didn't I go with commercial favorite Pina?"  Perhaps it was because TWC was the distributor and Pina was too abstract?  Who knows.  I should really document these things.  The year before, Inside Job did do the best at the box-office and took home the top prize.  I couldn't tell you why The Cove beat Food, Inc., but it did have a Hollywood actor as producer.  It also had "that scene."  You know what I'm talking about.  Man on Wire was simply a fascinating story that beat Werner Herzog's meditation on the South Pole Encounters at the End of the World.  Previous nominee Alex Gibney won over No End in Sight, as well as Michael Moore's Sicko.  An Inconvenient Truth was a commercial favorite over WGA-winner Deliver Us from Evil.  Sugar Man, Job, The Cove, Taxi to the Dark Side all won the WGA.  All the other Oscar-winners weren't nominated in the aforementioned examples, except when you get to March of the Penguins.  Remember March of the Penguins?  Those waddling tuxedo birds were really popular in the mid-2000s (Happy Feet anyone?).

Well, the popular favorite this year is Searching for Sugar Man this year.  The film about two South Africans looking for supposedly reclusive American musician Rodriguez has an 8.2 IMDb rating and over three times as many votes as the next nominee The Invisible War.  Ironically, while documentary shorts are the ugly stepchild of Oscar night (mostly due to depressing subject matter), documentary features are often more embraced than the foreign language films.  Rotten Tomatoes tells a somewhat similar story to the IMDb, with War and How to Survive a Plague receiving perfect scores, as well as a healthy sized number of reviews in context.  Sugar Man has over twice as many critical responses (but five "rotten" reviews).  The film has been cited for some inaccuracies regarding Rodriguez' career.  Metacritic reflects about the same story as RT, but there's an expectional drop in positive responses for Sugar Man.  However, the documentary has grossed $3.3M domestic, which is far and above the take of the other four put together.  On the awards circuit, 5 Broken Cameras won a few festival awards, including a directing prize at Sundance.  The Gatekeepers was recognized by the critics of NBR, NSFC, and LA and nominated by the PGA along with Sugar Man.  New York, along with some other minor critic groups, chose How to Survive a Plague.  The Invisible War has also won some critic awards as well as Best Documentary at Sundance.  It was also nominated by the WGA, but lost to Sugar Man.  (Does it seem weird to you that the WGA has a category for documentaries?  Or maybe it's just me.)

The Gatekeepers has Sony Picture Classics and a Facebook page.  Sugar Man is also from SPC and has almost 25,000 likes on FB.  A number also met by The Invisible War which has an obscure distributor.  How to Survive a Plague is a Sundance Selects release, and has almost 10,000 likes on FB.  Okay, it feels weird to be discussing FB likes, but it's relevant, no?  

5 Broken Cameras and The Gatekeepers seem to be out, based on all the evidence available.  Sugar Man is obviously the lazy guess, with The Invisible War being a possible upset.  Kirby Dick has made quite a name for himself, having already been nominated for Twist of Faith, as well as being behind such exposes as Outrage and This Film Is Not Yet Rated.  Sugar Man director Malik Bendjelloul is on his first feature length which is produced by Oscar winner Simon Chinn (Man on Wire).

What Does Gold Derby Say?
They're all going for Sugar Man, predictably, except for Rosen (How to Survive a Plague) and Simanton (The Invisible War).

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