Best Cinematography 2012 Oscar Prediction: Life of Pi

Looking to the critic groups and guilds for predicting the cinematography category at the Oscars is far from an exact science.  A prime example of lacking any guidance would be 2011.  Oscars can shower you with nominations, but never care to pay you a win, even when every group out there is suggesting the such.  Nominated for his fifth nomination last year with no wins, Emmanuel Lubezki's camerawork in The Tree of Life swept up just about every honor out there, only to lose to Robert Richardson for Hugo, which had only been recognized by the London Critics.  Richardson was on his seventh (out of eight) times with already two wins under his belt to erase any kind of notion of being overdue.  Roger Deakins, who has racked up ten nods without taking home the gold, is another cinematographer who had often taken a slew of precursors (Kundun, The Man Who Wasn't There, True Grit) only to lose, sometimes not even being nominated (Barton Fink).  Edward Lachman (Far From Heaven) and two-time winner John Toll (The Thin Red Line) were also early favorites who faltered.

Claudio Miranda

This year's nominees are frontrunner Claudio Miranda on his second nomination (Life of Pi), perennial nominees Deakins (Skyfall), Richardson (Django Unchained), and Janusz Kaminski (Lincoln).  Seamus McGarvey (Anna Karenina) is on his second nod, both of them for Joe Wright films.  Kaminski has been nominated six times, for mostly Steven Spielberg films, having won for two.  Recognized by the NSFC, Boston, and Chicago, Mihai Malaimare Jr (The Master) was left out of the mix.  Also omitted was Greig Fraser (Zero Dark Thirty), who was singled out by the NYC critics.  LA, Central Ohio, Florida, and Online chose Deakins.  Everyone else went for Miranda.  I haven't seen Skyfall or Anna Karenina, but Pi was definitely a visual standout.  Generally speaking, however, the future best cinematographer winner usually takes home an accolade or a handful before their name is called. Vegas, who chose Pi, is generally on the money in predictions.  ASC, also pretty accurate, will choose their winner along with BAFTA tomorrow on the 10th of February.  Will they go for Pi or stir things up by choosing another film entirely?  BAFTA and ASC both left out Richardson for Danny Cohen (Les Misérables).

Most of the Gold Derby pundits are going for Pi with the exception of those aligning with Skyfall (Matt Atchity, Christopher Rosen, Peter Travers, Chuck Walton) and Paul Sheehan (Lincoln).  I'd also call it for Pi with a possible Skyfall upset.  But, why would the AMPAS go for Deakins this year versus previously?  Also consider that aside from Visual Effects, this is one of the categories Pi is most competitive in.  If I were to break it down by percentages:

Life of Pi 75%
Skyfall 20%
Lincoln 5%
Anna Karenina 0%
Django Unchained 0%

What are your thoughts?