Khan is correct in that Riva had the most challenging role. She plays a physically disabled woman who slowly watches her independence and functionality permanently slip between her fingers. He rightly singles out her compelling work. He then goes on to correctly point out why this year's race has been so unpredictable: "Support is soft for the category's perceived frontrunners." The 22-year old rising star Jennifer Lawrence, while the female lead, is not the lead of Silver Linings Playbook. She has her own story, but the movie itself revolves around Bradley Cooper's Pat Jr. While this doesn't diminish Lawrence's performance, the movie is partly a comedy, often light-hearted in tone (despite some rather dark edges), which is always a tough sell to The Academy. Her spunky Tiffany is delightful, but, in more competitive years, wouldn't have a prayer at a win, especially if she was up against her nominated performance two years ago in Winter's Bone.
The also second-nominated, slightly older Julliard-trained Jessica Chastain has the benefit of playing a hero, but one who represses her emotions with little tension to spare. While she is enjoyable to watch, one could argue that her performance doesn't run deep, and/or the character isn't written to allow a more nuanced turn. Chastain has gone on and on in interviews about how she had to fight against her natural instincts to emote to relay the challenge she confronted to portray her Maya, that may or may not be in reaction to criticism of her nominated role. Immediate comparisons to Jodie Foster's Clarice Starling come to mind, the major difference is that The Silence of the Lambs is a campy serio-thriller with more opportunities for the actress to allow her to reveal some of the cracks in her veneer. Zero Dark Thirty is a sobering procedural without any hammy characters like Hannibal Lector and Buffalo Bill to play against. The torture controversy regarding Zero definitely hurt when the critics sold it down the river and Oscar nominations finally rolled around, leaving out director Bigelow, as well as other categories it might have popped up in. It remains to be seen if The AMPAS will have buyer's remorse and attempt a mea culpa come Oscar night by rewarding Chastain, screenwriter Mark Boal, or any of the other categories it's nominated for.
Both Silver and Zero are box-office successes nominated for Best Picture and both find themselves working overtime to make a case for their leading lady and pin their hopes on this category. Khan purports that both Lawrence and Chastain have better work ahead of them. I agree. But, I don't appreciate him diminishing Lawrence's performance as being something that could have been replicated by "a number of other actresses." I do believe she's something special and her work is unfortunately underestimated by the Oscar prognosticator. While one might argue it's all surface and rudimentary, there's a movie star quality where you can't just add water and stir. Just like Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman ... who went on to lose in 1990.
Khan proceeds to postulate that Riva's "age isn't an issue." He cites instances in which many assert youth and/or "hotness" won, but, more importantly, the victories were more attributable to the nature of the work (i.e. the baitier role always wins). However, the claim isn't full proof. He neglects Julia Roberts winning over Ellen Burstyn (as well as Laura Linney), Hilary Swank over Imelda Staunton (who gave possibly the performance of the decade in Vera Drake). The practically unknown Marion Cotillard beat the much older Julie Christie, Kate Winslet prevailed over Melissa Leo, etc. There is no arguing that Gabourey Sidibe had the most complicated role the year she was nominated for Precious, yet the glammed up Sandra Bullock took home Oscar. Nicole Kidman gave a lovely and painful turn in Rabbit Hole but lost to the much younger Natalie Portman. Helen Mirren, who had won for playing up the dowdy with The Queen, has been singled out repeatedly for being a "babe" for her a woman of her "age." He opens a pandora's box and throws in the unfortunate win of Jessica Tandy over Michelle Pfeiffer and quickly moves on not addressing The Academy's fear of an extremely beautiful woman portraying a sexually confident female who isn't a victim (not to forget the Tandy starred in the eventual Best Picture winner which made over $100M ... in 1989).
But, he leaves out other nuances. There is also the history of SAG/Golden Globes in the context of the Best Actress Oscar. You have to go all the way back to the 1980s to find an actress who captured neither (SAG didn't begin individual acting awards until 1994), yet still managed to win Oscar. In fact, they were both old bitties Katharine Hepburn and Geraldine Page. They were each up against young and fresh competition. Hepburn was pitted against Susan Sarandon and Marsha Mason (on her fourth and final nomination without a win), who had both been acting prominently in films for over a decade, as well as recent Oscar winners Diane Keaton and and Meryl Streep. She was also Katharine-fucking-Hepburn, who had three Oscars, but hadn't won for over ten years, and this may have been the final opportunity to honor the world's most revered actress (it was). And Geraldine Page was on her eighth Oscar nomination, not having ever won, up against three previous winners, with her main competition being Whoopi Goldberg, who had just made her film debut. Riva's most famous role was from over a half-century ago (Hiroshima, mon amour). If she wins, being French, her and her film having little commercial viability, being in her mid-80s, not campaigning, and starring in a film that is still building an audience, it will be quite a feet and worth applauding the AMPAS for stepping outside of their "comfort zone."
Adding BAFTA post-2002 (when the ceremony was moved up before the Oscars) only supports this data. In the following graph, actresses highlighted in yellow are the Best Actress Oscar winners from their respective years:
But, it should also be noted that Riva was not nominated for a Golden Globe or SAG and BAFTA's will be decided on the 10th of February.
One of Khan's final points concerns the AMPAS's francophilia, which I found to be his most intriguing. Not only is Riva celebrating her birthday on Oscar night, last year's Best Actor winner Jean Dujardin (who was obscure himself pre-The Artist) is handing out the award. And, the AMPAS are arguably getting more international with their winners (look at all four winning actors from 2007). Khan then blows his own horn about his track record. Does he have me nervous about my Jennifer Lawrence prediction? Of course. Especially if she wins BAFTA. Along with Lawrence and Chastain, they are the only ones nominated for both awards. And BAFTA has gotten this category right more than wrong in recent times regarding Oscar predictions, with one of the times it went its own way being Imelda Staunton, of all people. Guess it's back to the drawing board if Riva takes it. Right now at Gold Derby, along with Khan, Guy Lodge, Anne Thompson, and Peter Travers are all predicting Riva. Watch the rest (and perhaps me) do an about face if BAFTA changes the game right before the final stretch. And, if she wins both, she makes history. Right now, I'll stick with Lawrence.
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