Best Editing 2012 Oscar Prediction: Argo

Before Argo began to take over the awards race this season, it was still fast becoming a favorite in this category.  The nominees include BP nominees Argo (Phoenix, San Diego), Zero Dark Thirty (BFCA, LA, Boston, Las Vegas), Lincoln, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook.  Cloud Atlas (Online) was left out.  William Goldenberg will likely collect his first Oscar after four nominations (including Zero Dark Thirty with Dylan Tichenor on his second nod).  Ang Lee editor Tim Squyres is also on his second nod, as well as Jay Cassidy, who coedited Playbook with Crispin Struthers.  With eight nominations, all three of Michael Kahn's wins have come from Steven Spielberg.  The BAFTA recognitions will be awarded on February 10th; and, on the 16th, ACE (often an influential determining factor) will present their Eddies.  BAFTA opted to nominate Django Unchained and Skyfall over Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook.  In the Dramatic category, ACE chose Skyfall over Silver Linings Playbook.

A brief year by year rundown of slightly more than a decade of past races:

2011
Previous year's winner Angus Wall for the non-BP nominee The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (BAFTA) pulled a victory over best picture nominees The Artist (ACE, Phoenix), The Descendants (ACE), Hugo, and Moneyball, with only a win from BFCA.  Not nominated: The Tree of Life (Online), Beginners (San Diego), The Clock (Boston), and Senna (BAFTA).

2010
The Social Network (ACE, BAFTA) prevailed over best picture nominees Black Swan (Boston), The King's Speech, The Fighter, and 127 Hours.  Surprisingly not nominated was previous nominee Lee Smith for Inception (BFCA, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Online).  Seems like a nomination would have been a slam-dunk for a win.  Also not nominated were Alice in Wonderland (ACE) and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (San Diego).

2009
The Hurt Locker (ACE, BAFTA, Boston, Las Vegas, Online) predictably won over best picture nominees Avatar (BFCA, Phoenix), Inglorious Basterds, Precious, and District 9.  Not nominated: (500) Days of Summer (San Diego), and The Hangover (ACE).

2008
Slumdog Millionaire (ACE, BAFTA, Phoenix, Boston, San Diego, Online), without breaking a sweat annihilated best picture nominees Frost/Nixon (Las Vegas), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Milk, as well as The Dark Knight.  Wall*E (ACE) was not nominated.

2007
Armed with a healthy combination of precursors, The Bourne Ultimatum (ACE, BAFTA, Las Vegas) took the editing prize over the dark BP nominees No Country For Old Men (Phoenix, Online) and There Will Be Blood, as well as Into the Wild and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.  Not nominated: Atonement (San Diego) and Sweeney Todd (ACE).

2006
In a somewhat unpredictable year, The Departed (Las Vegas, Phoenix) won over its main competition United 93 (BAFTA, San Diego, Online), as well as Babel (ACE), Blood Diamond and Children of Men.  Dreamgirls (ACE) was not nominated.

2005
With a sign of what was to come on Oscar night, Crash (ACE) won editing as one of its few wins over The Constant Gardener (BAFTA), Walk the Line (ACE), Munich, and Cinderella Man.  Not nominated: A History of Violence (San Diego), King Kong (Las Vegas), and Sin City (Phoenix, Online).  People were surprised that Brokeback Mountain didn't win Best Picture, but, was this category the first clue?

2004
In another indecisive year, The Aviator (ACE, Las Vegas) beat Million Dollar Baby, Ray (ACE), Finding Neverland, and Collateral.  Similar to Inception, Eternal Sunshine (BAFTA, Phoenix, San Diego, Online) was inexplicably left out of the category.

2003
In a clean sweep, years in the making, LOTR III (ACE, Phoenix) took editing as one of its many Oscars over Master and Commander, Seabiscuit, Cold Mountain, and City of God.  Not nominated: Kill Bill: Vol. 1 (San Diego, Las Vegas), Lost in Translation (BAFTA), and Pirates of the Caribbean (ACE).

2002
In the rare year that reflected the BP race exactly, Chicago (ACE, Phoenix) won many of its categories including this instead of Gangs of New York (ACE), LOTR II (Online, Las Vegas), The Hours, and The Pianist.  Not nominated: City of God (BAFTA) and Thirteen Conversations About One Thing (San Diego).

2001
Non-BP nominee Black Hawk Down (ACE) beat A Beautiful Mind, LOTR I, Moulin Rouge! (ACE), and Memento (Las Vegas, Phoenix).  Not nominated: Mulholland Dr (BAFTA).

2000
Stephen Mirrione, who is busy cutting August: Osage County won for Traffic over Gladiator (ACE, BAFTA, Las Vegas), Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Almost Famous (ACE), and Wonder Boys.

1999
The Matrix (ACE) won over BP nominees American Beauty (BAFTA), The Cider House Rules, The Insider, and The Sixth Sense.  Not nominated: Being John Malkovich (ACE, Las Vegas) and Requiem for a Dream (Phoenix, Online).

1998
Saving Private Ryan (ACE, Online) managed to beat Shakespeare in Love (BAFTA) only a few times, including editing.  It also won over Life Is Beautiful, The Thin Red Line, and Out of Sight.

William Goldenberg

The editing Oscar generally goes to the eventual Best Picture winner or runner-up.  Sometimes, in the case of action films like Black Hawk Down, The Bourne Ultimatum, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and The Matrix, rules are broken.  If it weren't the torture controversy, Zero Dark Thirty might have prevailed over Argo and gone on to win this category.  My personal tastes predispose me to Kathryn Bigelow's film.  Its unrelenting pace and lean editing were superb.  To a lesser extent, Argo was successful as an action thriller.  I find it difficult to judge editing outside of such genres, but I know I wouldn't be the only one to say that Lincoln need to sharp pair of scissors.  Most Gold Derby pundits are calling Argo, with the exception of Lincoln loyalists Thom Geler and Sasha Stone.  My take on the percent breakdown of Oscar chances:

Argo 70%
Zero Dark Thirty 15%
Lincoln 10%
Life of Pi 5%
Silver Linings Playbook 0%

What are your thoughts?  Does Argo have this one in the bag?  If it's going to win Best Picture, it's going to need all the wins it can get.  Could Zero Dark Thirty manage a pity win?