Oscar 2012 Predictions: Lessons Learned

So, another Oscar telecast has passed.  People have weighed in on the quality of host and broadcast, as well as the winners/losers.  I was full of food and drink, so my impression of the ceremony was more positive than it had any right to be.  Accusations of homophobia and sexism were lobbed across the internet, but flew over my head.  Seth MacFarlane was pretty solid, though he was no Tina & Amy.  A step above Ricky Gervais perhaps and miles better than James Franco.  I actually enjoyed the homage to "Hollywood musicals of the last ten years," loved the overall Broadway vibe, and thought that Jennifer Hudson batted it out of the park.  Sometimes I forget that girl can sing.  Adele and Babs brought it as well.  There were some odd choices (like the finale, as well as the Michelle Obama bit), for what was an unspectacular, but definitely watchable show.

In the predicting game, one can never really say, "I told you so," when, in all truth, any who wins may as well have won by one vote, unless, of course, as there was last night in the Sound Effects Editing category, there is a tie.  I'm a bit embarrassed not that I predicted effects-laden adventure Best Picture nominee Life of Pi, but that I was so certain Zero Dark Thirty was out of contention.  While it was an action-oriented Best Picture nominee, I was almost certain that controversy would take it out of taking any awards home.  That wasn't the case for Kathryn Bigelow's film, nor was it the case for James Bond movie Skyfall.  Others incorrectly had Best Picture winner Argo pegged.  But, what this year has proved for the SEE award is that sophisticated explosive action is sophisticated explosive action, whether you're nominated for Best Picture or not.

As for the nine categories that Gold Derby was unanimous on (for all intents and purposes), they were correct and it made no sense to question.  On the next eleven, where there were frontrunners with minor, but visible dissent, it paid off to go with group-think on eight of the categories.  Sticking with Lawrence paid off.  The group was (half) right about Zero Dark Thirty winning sound effects editing.  Even with two winners, I was destined to get this one incorrect.  Edward Douglas was the only one who predicted Skyfall.  Thelma Adams, Matt Atchity, Michael Hogan, Richard Horgan, Michael Musto, Kevin Polowy, Keith Simanton, Alex Suskind, Peter Travers, Chuck Walton, Susan Wloszczyna were behind Zero Dark Thirty.

They were right about the shorts, except for the one I deviated on for documentary short Inocente.  My rationale there was mostly the narrative, as well as the strong social media campaign.  Thom Geler, Dave Karger, Tariq Khan, Anne Thompson, Peter Travers, and Glenn Whipp also called it for a win.

I never understood those who filed behind The Hobbit for makeup.  The ones who went with Les Misérables: Thelma Adams, Edward Douglas, Pete Hammond, Richard Horgan, Tariq Khan, Ramin Setoodeh, Paul Sheehan, Keith Simanton, Anne Thompson, and Peter Travers.

The lesson with animated feature was that when you have The Golden Globe and BAFTA winner staring you in the face, you probably should just follow along.  Kudos to Anne Thompson and Brad Brevet for getting Brave right.  For as long as BAFTA has been handing out the prize, the eventual Oscar winner got it or The Globe.

The more unpredictable races both resulted in wins for Django Unchained.  The AMPAS ultimately were in love with this movie beyond what my negative bias would permit me to see.  Talk about the sign posts being in plain sight.  Obviously, the precursors were there as red flags.  It didn't really matter that the screenplay isn't all that good and lacks sound narrative structure and memorable dialogue.  And it didn't matter that Christophe Waltz didn't give us a performance that distinguished itself from his Oscar-winning turn in Inglourious Basterds.  Though, it certainly helped that he was a leading character who basically drove a great deal of the story.   Michael Musto, Tom O'Neil, Richard Rushfield, and Paul Sheehan were all in for Django in both categories.  Lodge, Atchity, Douglas, Hogan, Horgan, Rosen, Simanton, and Travers all missed one of its wins, but got the other.

Adams, Douglas, Hammond, Hogan, Karger, Khan, Lodge, O'Neil, Steve Pond, Sheehan, and Thompson all had Ang Lee for the directing win.  The logic here was that out of the few precursors the field of five carried, Lee was the only one who got small, but plentiful recognitions.

Major props go to Geler and Thompson for being the only ones to call Lincoln's second win for production design.  I'm not sure I would have ever had a chance at calling this race.

The biggest lesson for me was that if the prediction doesn't feel right, then there is probably something wrong with the prediction.  I felt that way about everything I got wrong: original screenplay, supporting actor, production design, animated feature, and sound effects editing.

All in all, I could have easily scored 22, if I took my blinders off.  I'll have to settle for 19/24, which, at least, is a personal record.  How did you do?