Well, the day has almost arrived, one of my favorites of the year: Oscar nomination time! So exciting! Do you have your predictions ready? My blindspots (or films I haven't seen) are: Skyfall, Anna Karenina, The Hobbit, Rust and Bone, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, most of the official foreign language entries, documentaries, animated features, and all of those shorts. Right now, I'm sensing that the wins are going to be pretty evenly distributed (with Argo being a kind of Traffic this year). And, of course, there are all those extra variables this year like the shortened deadline and voting hiccups. Who will have read the tea leaves best? What are your predictions? These were mine from last year. I actually thought War Horse was the frontrunner, because I couldn't commit to The Artist. Here I am, predicting Spielberg in the lead, yet again. I'm looking to beat 35/44 out of the Top Eight Categories. Best Picture
1. Lincoln (Buena Vista). SAG, BFCA, PGA, GG (Drama). With multiple nominations expected, it's sure to pass $160M; this is the odds-on favorite for the win. People, like myself, wanted something more than a history lesson with schmaltzy and cloying Spielberg flourishes delivered under the radar. Some hold out hope for Les Mis, which may already be dying a slow death, or pick up steam. Others think Argo could sneak in. That directing snub from BAFTA certainly supports this notion. And, yet, others who aren't willing to paint themselves into a corner (like I am) still consider the possibility for a Zero Dark Thirty. Most have bailed on Silver Linings. Lincoln's winning. Am I sure? No. But, snoozers with no sex and action that are box-office bonanzas are not to be ignored. There's a reason it made all this money. For the win: Brevet, and most of the Gold Derby.
3. Argo (Warner Bros). SAG, BFCA, PFA, GG (Drama). Once the frontrunner, it has relented the top spot to Lincoln. But think the Telluride selection has gained it back. For the win: Atchity, Horgan, Khan, Lodge, O'Neil, Rosen, Shehan.
2. Les Misérables (Universal). SAG, BFCA, PGA, GG (Comedy). It appears to be a box-office hit and the awards season could help raise the grosses beyond expectations. It's too soon to tell. Still a remote possibility for the win, the movie will need a high nomination count, aggressive campaign, and commercial longevity. For the win: Simanton, Suskind.
4. Zero Dark Thirty (Sony). BFCA, PGA, GG (Drama). The critical darling with promising box-office potential, this might have been a BP contender another year. Certainly, the controversy regarding torture can't help its chances at a win with The Academy. Argo being the "friendlier" thriller also stands in its way. For the win: Adams, Geler, Polowy, Wells.
5. Silver Linings Playbook (TWC). SAG, BFCA, PGA, GG (Comedy). The frontrunner back in Toronto for a hot second, many overestimated the rom-com's chances with the overly positive reception coupled with being Harvey Weinstein's baby this Oscar season. Still, a decent show is expected. Though, considering its genre and starpower, the similar box-office track it's following as The Artist (a black and white silent movie with no stars), with not the same critical backing, one is left with great doubt.
6. Life of Pi (Fox). BFCA, PGA, GG (Drama). Enthusiasm seemed to have waned, but the awards bodies have been kind. I'm sticking by my guns that this film will pull in just like Hugo did. Not a lock, but close to a sure thing. Predicting no nomination: Lodge.
7. Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features). BFCA, PGA, GG (Comedy). I've been predicting a BP nod since September. I will not let up. Not saying it's a lock, but, again, close to a sure thing. Predicting no nomination: Rogers, Olsen, Tapley, Geler, Horgan, Lodge, O'Neil, Polowy, Rushfield, Sheehan, Simanton, Suskind, Walton, Wells.
8. Django Unchained (TWC). BFCA, PGA, GG (Drama). Audiences are reacting to Tarantino's latest similar to his previous effort Inglourious Basterds, which had no problem racking up nominations. The appeal of this film is lost on me, but the consistency in response between the two movies can only lead me to believe that Django's chances are as good as a proof of sale. Though, its violent content in the make of the Newtown, CT school shooting may or may not play a role in its chances. No lock, but its chances are quite good. Predicting no nomination: Breznican, Tapley, Lodge, O'Connell, Stone.
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight). BFCA, PGA. Winter's Bone was able to get in with only a BFCA, why shouldn't Beasts? That's a good question, but I don't know how the studio is splitting its time between Best Exotic and Beasts. I honestly have no idea how the AMPAS reacted to this film. Predicting no nomination: Hammond, Khan, Polowy, Whipp.
10. The Master (TWC). BFCA. This was one of my favorite films of 2012. The Tree of Life getting in last year speaks to its chances of also making it (both got BFCA), but with the unlikelihood of getting a Director spot; Joaquin Phoenix's bad press; Drive getting a BFCA last year, but no Oscar nod for BP; missing the SAG (which seems like a big deal, but perhaps I'm overblowing it); and TWC having already two films with likely berth's in the Best Picture field, I would like to err on the side of The Master not getting in. Most of the buzz has leaked out. But, never count Harvey Weinstein out. Ten years ago, he was able to net three Best Picture films in one year (Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Hours), and that's when it was only five nominees. The Master being perhaps his weakest link has the critical support. Also predicting: Brevet, Horgan, Khan, Lodge, Polowy, Pond, Suskind, Travers, Walton, Wells, Wloszczyna.
11. Skyfall (Sony). PGA. Will James Bond make history this year? It's the highest grossing 997 of all time. And the reviews have been sick. Wasn't it the snub of an established tentpole brand (Batman) that ushered in the new ear of ten nominees? Predicting: Breznican, Ellwood, Adams, Atchity, Hammond, O'Neil, Rosen, Whipp.
12. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight). SAG, GG (Comedy). It's easy to count this entry in on the surface, as it got the SAG, as well as GG mention. Bridesmaids (which may have been too crass for the academy) and Nine (with unforgiving reviews) both in similar positions failed to make the BP cut. One must also consider that those ahead of it that didn't get a SAG aren't the actor showcases that generally get in. Even if screeners were sent out late, I hardly think it's a mark against Zero for missing SAG, though one might make the argument that it doesn't look as good for Django. Beasts wasn't SAG-eligible. Pi's characters are almost all CGI. The Master's buzz is dying. And, Moonrise has two kids as its leads, which probably didn't work for it. Its mention in the Globes Comedy category isn't as impressive as others that got in on the Drama side. Its RT/MC is 77/62, which, if not impressive, is respectable. The $10M production made $46.4M domestic and $134.4M, and its subject matter on the elderly plight post-retirement/twilight years must appeal to a largest contingent of the academy, as I'm sure it will go down easier than Amour. Before last year's rule change, its chances were probably greater. Its Achilles' heel, now, is its ability to get enough #1 votes to get into the race, a feet that will probably be less troubling for Searchlight's other main entry, Beasts of the Southern Wild (86/86; $11.3M). One, but not both, could easily get in. Fox Searchlight is in a good position to get something in. Predicting: Musto, Rushfield, Sheehan.
13. Amour (Sony Classics). While I could see this being Haneke's "breakout" film with the AMPAS, especially considering its elderly-geared storyline, I'm going to wager that small studio, low-gross potential, and the director's trademark style will keep it out. A Separation wasn't able to get in last year, and Amour is not an easy film to stomach. Predicting: Rogers, Breznican, Howell, Tapley, Feinberg, Geler, Hammond, Hogan, Horgan, Karger, Khan, Lodge, O'Connell, O'Neil, Sheehan, Thompson, Walton, Whipp.
14. The Intouchables (TWC). Predicting: Tapley.
15. Flight (Paramount). I was surprised when I heard it was closing the NYFF. This film had a huge initial push, and it has belly-upped and crashed since. Predicting: Stone.
16. The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros). Predicting: Stone, Wells.
17. The Impossible (Summit). Predicting: O'Connell, Simanton.
18. Anna Karenina (Focus Features). Predicting: Rushfield, Suskind.
Also of note, this may be the second year that an animated feature is not within the ranks of the BP field whether real (Toy Story 3, Up) or Oscar-revised (Wall*E, Ratatouille).
Best Director1. Ben Affleck, Argo
2. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
3. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
4. David O. Russell*, Silver Linings Playbook
5. Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Alternates: Ang Lee, Quentin Tarantino*, Paul T. Anderson*, Michael Haneke
*It doesn't seem like anyone is betting on Russell AND Hooper, leaving Lee out. Of course, it's a risk and I'm underestimating how beloved Lee is. Perhaps I'm trying to be contrary. I just convinced that the passion for the former two films will play a role. And it's difficult to imagine TWC not getting a nod for direction.
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
3. Denzel Washington, Flight
4. Jonathan Hawkes, The Sessions
5. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Alternates: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master, Richard Gere, Arbitrage (Roadside), Jean-Louis Triginant, Amour
*I have a hard time believing The Academy will go for Cooper, but, then, I don't have strong enough convictions to replace him with any of the alternates. Is Hawkes a lock?
Best Actress1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
3. Naomi Watts (Summit), The Impossible
4. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight)
5. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone (Sony Classics)
Alternates: Helen Mirren, Hitchcock (Fox Searchlight), Emmanuelle Riva (Sony Classics), Judi Dench, Exotic
*I'm so tempted to plug Mirren in for Cotillard or Wallis, but I just ... can't.
1. Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained
2. Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
3. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
4. Alan Arkin, Argo
5. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Alternates: Christoph Waltz, Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained, Eddie Redmayne, Matthew McConaughey, Javier Bardem, John Goodman, Argo or Flight, Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Summit), Ewan McGregor, The Impossible, Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
*It took me a while to figure out who will be the fifth nominee. And, then, duh, it dawned on me: "The Sad Off" between Samuel L. Jackson and Anne Hathaway. Jackson for a surprise nomination and win. This is my official No Guts, No Glory call (for now). I see that Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post) is with me.
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
2. Sally Field, Lincoln
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
4. Judi Dench, Skyfall
5. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alternates: Jacki Weaver, Amy Adams, Samantha Barks, Nicole Kidman, Ann Dowd
Best Original Screenplay1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Moonrise Kingdom
3. Django Unchained
4. The Master
5. Amour
Alternates: Looper, The Intouchables, Flight, Middle of Nowhere
Best Adapted Screenplay1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild
Alternates: Perks of Being a Wallflower, Les Misérables, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Best Editing1. Argo
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Lincoln
4. Les Misérables
5. Skyfall
Alternates: Silver Linings Playbook, The Master, Life of Pi, Django Unchained, Flight, The Dark Knight Rises, Killing Them Softly
Cinematography: 1. Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
2. Danny Cohen, Les Misérables
3. Mihai Malaimare Jr, The Master
4. Greig Fraser, Zero Dark Thirty
5. Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln
Alternates: Roger Deakins, Skyfall; Robert Richardson, Django Unchained; Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight Rises; Ben Richardson, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Seamus McGarvey, Anna Karenina
1. Les Misérables
2. Anna Karenina
3. Lincoln
4. The Hobbit
5. Moonrise Kingdom
Alternates: Life of Pi, Cloud Atlas, Argo, Prometheus, The Master, Snow White and the Huntsman, The Dark Knight Rises, Django Unchained
Costume Design:1. Paco Delgado, Les Misérables
2. Jacqueline Durran, Anna Karenina
3. Joanna Johnston, Lincoln
4. Colleen Atwood, Snow White and the Huntsman
5. Ranchoux & Gasc, Farewell, My Queen
Alternates: Barrett & Gayraud, Cloud Atlas; Taylor, Buck & Baskrey, The Hobbit; Kasia Walicka-Maimone, Moonrise Kingdom; Jacqueline West, Argo; Julie Weiss, Hitchcock; Sharen Davis, Django Unchained; Manon Rasmussen, A Royal Affair; Margot Wilson, Lawless; Eiko Ishioka (deceased), Mirror Mirror; Mark Bridges, The Master
1. Life of Pi
2. The Hobbit
3. The Avengers
4. Prometheus
5. Cloud Atlas
Alternate: The Dark Knight Rises
Makeup: 1. Lincoln
2. Les Misérables
3. The Hobbit
1. "Suddenly," Les Misérables
2. "Skyfall," Skyfall
3. "Touch the Sky," Brave
4. "Still Alive," Paul Williams Still Alive
5. "Still Dream," Rise of the Guardians
Alternates: "Pi's Lullaby," Life of Pi; "Learn Me Right," Brave; "For You," Act of Valor; "Safe and Sound," The Hunger Games; "Not Running Anymore," Stand Up Guys
*Sometimes, I wonder what the point is even trying to predict this category.
Score:
1. John Williams, Lincoln2. Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
3. Jonny Greenwood, The Master
4. Alexandre Desplat, Argo
5. Heil, Klimek, Tykwer, Cloud Atlas;
Alternates: Alexandre Desplat, Zero Dark Thirty, Alexandre Desplat, Moonrise Kingdom; Romer, Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. The Dark Knight Rises
3. The Avengers
4. Skyfall
5. Django Unchained
Alternates: Life of Pi, Lincoln, Les Misérables, The Hobbit, Argo
1. Les Misérables
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Skyfall
4. Django Unchained
5. The Avengers
Alternates: Lincoln, Life of Pi, The Dark Knight Rises, The Hobbit,
Foreign Language Film:
1. Amour (Austria)
2. The Intouchables (France)
3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)
4. No (Chile)
5. Barbara (Germany)
Alternate: Rebelle, Kon Tiki, Beyond the Hills, Sister, The Deep
Animated Feature:
1. Brave
2. Wreck-It Ralph
3. Frankenweenie
4. The Painting
5. ParaNorman
Alternate: Rise of the Guardians, The Rabbi's Cat
Documentary:
1. How to Survive a Plague
2. The Invisible War
3. Searching for Sugar Man
4. Ethel
5. The Gatekeepers
Documentary Short:
1. Open Heart
2. Mondays at Racine
3. The Education of Mohamma Hussein
4. Inocente
5. Redemption
Animated Short:
1. Paperman
2. Adam and Dog
3. Dripped
4. The Fall of the House of Usher
5. The Eagleman Stag
Alternate: Tram
Live Action Short:
1. Curfew
2. Death of a Shadow
3. Asad
4. 9meter
5. Buzkashi Boys
Final Count:
Lincoln 12 (5 wins)
Les Misérables 11 (5 wins)
Zero Dark Thirty 8 (2 wins)
Argo 6 (2 wins)
Silver Linings Playbook 6 (1 win)
Life of Pi 5 (2 wins)
Django Unchained 5 (1 win)
The Master 5
Skyfall 5
Moonrise Kingdom 3
Beasts of the Southern Wild 3
The Avengers 3
The Hobbit 3
Amour 2 (1 win)
The Sessions 2
Anna Karenina 2
Cloud Atlas 2
Brave 2 (1 win)
The Dark Knight Rises 1
Snow White and the Huntsman 1
Farewell, My Queen 1
Prometheus 1
Flight 1
Rust and Bone 1
The Impossible 1
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 1
Rise of the Guardians 1
Hitchcock 0
Other Feature-Length Nods 14
Shorts 15
Thank you to The Film Experience, Awards Daily, Gold Derby, Rope of Silicon, Movie City News for being invaluable resources.
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