Less than five weeks to Oscar, and here's my unscientific take on the big categories. Of course, things could/will change towards the end of January/early February, once PGA (Lincoln vs. Argo), SAG (Lincoln vs. Argo / Silver Linings Playbook), and DGA (Lincoln vs. Argo) are decided upon, though I don't foresee the landscape changing dramatically unless a real wrench is thrown into the works, like a Life of Pi or Les Misérables win (or Silver Linings winning outside of SAG or Argo winning all three). Generally, the Oscars are more predictable, with 75% of the big eight winners already a done deal. This year, however, there's some activity in every other category (and then some). If I laid down big money right now, I'd only commit to Best Actor and Supporting Actress. That's 25%. Talk about a flip-flop from years past. It's exciting, though, no? A real race, for a change. From easiest to hardest to call: Supporting Actress > Actor > Director > Adapted Screenplay > Picture > Actress > Original Screenplay > Supporting Actor. 
40% Lincoln. The frontrunner, whether we like it or not.
30% Argo. The possible upset, whether we like it or not.
15% Life of Pi. The place of the truly unexpected, if the AMPAS want to go there.
10% Silver Linings Playbook. What can Harvey do with a non-period film? Certainly, its release strategy is shrewd, but is that really going to put it overt the top? Everything seems so "possible" right now, because it just had what will be its highest grossing weekend.
5% Les Misérables. The AMPAS can mostly hear the detractors sing.
0% Zero Dark Thirty. The brainless contingent of the liberal faction made sure Zero is at 0%.
0% Amour. The subject matter alone isn't enough for contention.
0% Beasts of the Southern Wild. Only in a fan's wildest dreams?
0% Django Unchained.
60% Steven Spielberg
25% Ang Lee
10% David O. Russell
5% Michael Haneke
0% Benh Zeitlin
Three Oscars for Spielberg seem kind of shaky right now, because so many people are suggesting so. But, come on. $160M+ and counting for a film about "ideas," with the central character part of Americana culture. Good luck, Ang Lee, but Spielberg losing at this point seems almost like wishful thinking.
Best Actress45% Jennifer Lawrence
40% Jessica Chastain
10% Emmanuelle Riva
5% Naomi Watts
0% Quvenzhané Wallis
Lawrence has been the frontrunner since her film won the Audience Award at TIFF, but the enthusiasm has always been in check. Some found her recent SNL monologue to have placed her in a precarious position, especially in the context of Jessica Chastain having the #1 and #2 movies of the weekend (crazy, right?). Since September, like many, my default has always been to go with Lawrence, but Chastain could still easily sneak in. This is going to be one of those "hindsight is 20/20" wins, I believe. I think it's cute that some believe Riva has a chance. Good luck with that. Will the AMPAS recognize her for her performance? They certainly didn't with Imelda Staunton eight years ago. But, it can only happen if they decide that they are not ready to reward Lawrence or Chastain. I can't say they are. Surely, they find one of them worthy. And, I'm subscribing to the silly belief that Watts can't win with such battier projects on the near horizon. Like that means anything. This race is probably closer than I'm willing to admit. I see Lawrence having a long career, which seems less possible with an early win for a "lightweight" performance. But, if Gwyneth Paltrow can do it ...
90% Daniel Day-Lewis
7.5% Hugh Jackman
2.5% Joaquin Phoenix
0% Denzel Washington
0% Bradley Cooper
This officially became a threepeat question for Day-Lewis when The Master stumbled at the box-office, Phoenix opened his mouth, and Day-Lewis landed the cover of Time magazine. Now the best performance of the year has become "the nomination is the reward." Wow. Phoenix likes to learn things the hard way. The fact that he made a joke of himself with the whole "retirement" and "hip-hop documentary," already had him in the category of "the fact that you're still working is the reward." But, by the unlikely chance that Jackman won, that would present two former Oscar hosts winning on the same evening. And Day-Lewis won only five years ago ...
95% Anne Hathaway
2.5% Sally Field
2.5% Amy Adams
0% Helen Hunt
0% Jacki Weaver
So, I've been blabbering on and on about how Anne is winning Oscar this year. I would be lying if I didn't said I *almost* broke a sweat a few weeks ago. Not saying that I did, but I did notice the temperature creeping up a degree or two suddenly. I threw Hathaway into the Catherine Zeta-Jones/Jennifer Hudson pool early on, but then I never stopped to consider how she was going to handle herself. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Zeta-Jones and Hudson conducted themselves quite well during their awards season, no? Pure professionals, right? I didn't stop to consider that this wouldn't be happening with Anne. It didn't dawn on me that once Anne started winning all these awards that Ugly Anne who makes us cringe (as opposed to Charming and Talented Anne who rears her head every once in a while, and not often enough) would have to go up to the podium to collect all of her trophies. So, that's where the "self-doubt" on my part comes from. LOL. Her Try gives me pause. But, she's so high up there, Anne is still winning.
Best Supporting Actor30% Robert De Niro
27.5% Tommy Lee Jones
22.5% Philip Seymour Hoffman
20% Christopher Waltz
0% Alan Arkin
I'm surprised more people aren't floating De Niro's name around. Am I missing something here? Now, granted, I didn't find him particularly good in the role and his "crying" scene was so forced and disingenuous. Could he be the surprise? The race is a close one, possibly a four-way. How often does that happen? And all former winners too. Who has had the most losses since their win? De Niro (and, Hoffman). Who has gone without longest? De Niro > Jones > Hoffman > Arkin > Waltz. Who has the biggest name recognition? De Niro. Who has the most nominations? De Niro (7). Who has had the longest career? Alan Arkin. But, De Niro is close behind. But, De Niro, unlike the others, already has two. Still, Raging Bull was over three decades ago. Raging Bull, people. He was Daniel Day-Lewis'ing it, before DDL hit the screen. And De Niro is considered one of the greats. Could he be ReOscared with a third on the same evening as the much younger Day-Lewis? The performances don't compare. And De Niro has "soiled" his resume some in recent memory. Am I just trying to make this happen, because no one else is and I want to cry out "first"? (Correction: I think Rope of Silicon has just put him on top, now.) Think Jack Nicholson #3, As Good As It Gets: older guy with OCD issues. Or, does the math mean something here? Are Waltz and Hoffman serious threats? Waltz' Golden Globe win didn't hurt, but did it mean anything? Is it because he technically has a lead role and he could Juliet Binoche the Oscars? Am I underestimating Hoffman? Is there seriously a clamoring for him to recognized again? Yes, he has the title role, which is weighty, but I didn't get the memo that he's a legend. And, Grumpy Cat, Grumpy Cat, what are they feeding Tommy Lee Jones? I think I'm giving the edge to DeNiro, because I'm crazy that way. But, wait, no I'm not! Wait, yes, I am!
65% Lincoln
20% Argo
10% Life of Pi
2.5% Silver Linings Playbook
2.5% Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln is one of the frontrunners and I can't get over the idea of some no-namer beating Tony Kushner. He's Broadway royalty and most in the know, know his name. He has won Tony, Emmy, and Pulitzer! My prognosticating brain can't adapt to any other situation.
35% Zero Dark Thirty
32.5% Django Unchained
30% Amour
2.5% Moonrise Kingdom
0% Flight
Well, the controversy should extinguish Zero Dark Thirty's chances, but I can't let go. Personal bias is getting in the way. I'm embarrassed that I even consider Django a threat, because it's such a grossly uneven movie, and for a Tarantino film, I doubt there will be many lines we'll be quoting five years from now. The best one (which is genius from a writing and marketing perspective) is so specific too ("The 'D' is silent"). Still trying to predict Amour, but just can't yet. Think Talk to Her.
Knee-Jerk Predictions (For Now):
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Editing: Argo
Production Design: Anna Karenina
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Makeup: Les Misérables
Score: Life of Pi
Song: Skyfall
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Sound Editing: Skyfall
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Foreign Language: Amour
Animated Feature: Frankenweenie
Documentary: How to Survive a Plague
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