Best Director / Screenplays / Etc Oscar 2013 - July Predictions

So, I'm finally wrapping up my July predictions.  I wanted to get the rest of the Big Eight out of the way, as well as add a small section of nine more feature length categories.  You can visit the latest predictions for picture here, actresses here, and actors here.  I plan on doing another set of predictions in September, but, if things don't change that much and/or I get lazy, I might postpone it until October.  There hasn't been too much of a shakeup since the last prediction right before all the major players at Cannes were taken into consideration, followed by the settling-in period.  Most of the Fall trailers have debuted (Monuments, Hustle, and Walter Mitty immediately spring to mind as those missing, but I suppose they have another month or so to put something up), but the festival lineups for Telluride, Venice, and Toronto should be announced shortly, which should clear up some of the curiosity regarding such projects as Foxcatcher, Dallas Buyers Club, A Most Wanted Man, Devil's Knot, Thérèse and The Railway Man, among others.  For the time being, I'm going to go with Fruitvale Station as the frontrunner until I have good reason to replace it with something else.  It has the reviews, an emotional story, it shows the potential to have the appropriate box-office, it's backed by the King of the Awards Circuit, and, additionally, it draws parallels to an unfortunate tragedy that has received nationwide attention the last few weeks.  It also fits the profile of an unassuming smaller film, which hasn't been uncommon in Best Picture winners of the recent past.  With so many films having a black-character focus (TWC's The B*****, Mandela: The Long Walk Home, as well as 12 Years a Slave, and Black Nativity), it may also end up leading the greater narrative this awards seasons.  You might note that the Best Director category may be brought to you by the letter C this year.

Best Director
1 (+2). Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
2 (--). George Clooney, The Monuments Men
3 (+4). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
4 (--). John Wells, August: Osage County
5 (+5). Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave

6 (+2). Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
7 (-2). David O. Russell, American Hustle
8 (New). Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue Is the Warmest Color
9 (+19). Justin Chadwick, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
10 (New).  J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost

11 (-10). Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
12 (New). Stephen Frears, Philomena
13 (-2). Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
14 (+10). Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
15 (-6). Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
16 (-1). John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
17 (-11). Alexander Payne, Nebraska
18 (-9). Asghar Farhadi, The Past
19 (-1). Bill Condon, The Fifth Estate
20 (+6). Ron Howard, Rush

21 (-7). Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
22 (-3). Anton Corbijn, A Most Wanted Man
23 (-6). Jeff Nichols, Mud
24 (New). Brian Percival, The Book Thief
25 (-2). Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
26 (New). Peter Berg, Lone Survivor
27 (+2). Atom Egoyan, Devil's Knot
28 (-3). Jonathan Teplitzky, The Railway Man
29 (-17). Ridley Scott, The Counselor
30 (+20). Lee Daniels, The B*****

31 (+7). Spike Jonze, Her
32 (+3). Peter Landesman, Parkland
33 (-3). Neill Blomkamp, Elysium
34 (-18). Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
35 (-14). Akiva Goldman's, Winter's Tale
36 (-16). Baz Luhrmann, The Great Gatsby
37 (-15). Spike Lee, Oldboy
38 (+9). Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
39 (+9). Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman
40 (-9). James Gray, The Immigrant

41 (-14). Jason Reitman, Labor Day
42 (-8). Olivier Dahan, Grace of Monaco
43 (-10). Derek Cianfrance, The Place Beyond the Pines
44 (-8). Carl Rinsch, 47 Ronin
45 (-8). Susanne Bier, Serena
46 (-14). Denis Villeneuve, Prisoners
47 (-1). Kar Wai Wong, The Grandmaster

Best Original Screenplay
1 (+1). Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
2 (+11). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (adapted?)
3 (+2). Eric Singer, American Hustle.  Script Review.
4 (+8). Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
5 (-4). Bob Nelson, Nebraska

6 (-2). Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks.  Script Review.
7 (--). Alfonso & Jonás Cuarón, Gravity.  Script Review.
8 (--). Jeff Nichols, Mud
9 (New). Peter Berg, Lone Survivor
10 (-4). Cormac McCarthy, The Counselor.  Script Review.

11 (-8). Asghar Farhadi & Massoumeh Lahidji, The Past
12 (New). J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost
13 (+1). Peter Morgan, Rush
14 (-4). Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Way, Way Back
15 (--). Spike Jonze, Her
16 (+1). Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
17 (-1). Tobias Lindholm & Thomas Vinterberg, The Hunt
18 (--). Arash Amel, Grace of Monaco
19 (+5). Peter Landesman, Parkland
20 (New). Frances Ha

21 (+9). Lee Daniels & Danny Strong, The B***** ("adapted"?)
22 (+9). Derek Cianfrance, et al, The Place Beyond the Pines
23 (+2). Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring ("adapted"?)
24 (-15). E. Max Frye & Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher.  Script Review.
25 (-14). David Lowery, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
26 (-6). Neill Blomkamp, Elysium.  Script Review.
27 (-5). James Gray & Ric Menello, The Immigrant
28 (-9). Stephen Jeffreys, Diana
29 (-8). Aaron Guzikowski, Prisoners.  Script Review.
30 (-2). Chris Morgan, et al, 47 Ronin

31 (-5). Travis Beacham & Guillermo del Toro, Pacific Rim.  Script Review.
32 (-5). Brian Koppelman & David Levien, Runner, Runner
33 (-4). Scott Cooper & Brad Ingelsby, Out of the Furnace.  Script Review.
34 (-2). Brian Helgeland, 42
35 (-12). Nicolas Winding Refn, Only God Forgives

Best Adapted Screenplay
1 (--). Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
2 (+1). George Clooney & Grant Heslov, The Monuments Men
3 (+1). Steve McQueen & John Ridley, Twelve Years a Slave
4 (+3). Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
5 (New). Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope, Philomena

6 (--). William Nicholson, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
7 (+2). Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
8 (-6). Steve Conrad, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
9 (New). Abdellatif Kechiche & Ghalia Lacroix, Blue Is the Warmest Color
10 (New). Markus Zusak, Michael Petroni, The Book Thief

11 (-6). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (original?)
12 (+6). Josh Singer, The Fifth Estate
13 (+1). Charlie Stratton, Thérèse
14 (-6). Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
15 (+1). Andrew Bovell, A Most Wanted Man
16 (+5). Frank Cottrell Boyce & Andy Paterman, The Railway Man
17 (-7). Baz Luhrmann & Craig Pearce, The Great Gatsby
18 (+1). Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
19 (+1). Paul Harris Boardman & Scott Derrickson, Devil's Knot
20 (-8). Akiva Goldman's, Winter's Tale

21 (-8). Lee Daniels & Danny Strong, The B***** ("original"?)
22 (-11). Jason Reitman, Labor Day.  Script Review.
23 (-8). Abi Morgan, The Invisible Woman
24 (New). Hossein Amini, The Two Faces of January 
25 (-8). Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Spectacular Now
26 (-2). Mark Protosevich, Oldboy
27 (-5). Christopher Kyle, Serena
28 (-2). Joon-ho Bong & Kelly Masterson, Snowpiercer
29 (-6). Luc Besson, The Family
30 (-5). Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring (original?)

Editing
Monuments / Gravity / Captain Phillips / Hustle / 12 Years
alts: Fruitvale / August / Llewyn / Wolf / Rush / Lost / Estate

Production Design
Monuments / Oz / Hobbit / Gatsby / 12 Years
alts: Gravity / Rush / Mandela / Elysium / Black Nativity / Banks / Hustle

Costume Design
Gatsby / Monuments / The Book Thief / Oz / Monaco
alts: Railway Man / The B***** / Llewyn / Invisible Woman / Effie Gray

Makeup and Hair
Walter Mitty / Lone Ranger / Hobbit
alts: Hustle / Gatsby / Oz / Estate / Mandela / Rush

Cinematography
Gravity / Walter Mitty / Monuments / Llweyn / Nebraska
alts: Lost / Captain Phillips / Counselor / Rush / Wolf / Estate / Wanted Man

Visual Effects
Gravity / Walter Mitty / Iron Man Three / Pacific Rim / World War Z
alts: Elysium / Star Trek / Hobbit

Score
Monuments / Llweyn / 12 Years / Banks / Wolf
alts: Lost / Nebraska / Estate / Rush / Railway Man / Mandela / Devil's Knot

Sound Mixing
Llewyn / Gravity / Captain Phillips / Rush / Monuments
alts: 12 Years / Lost / Star Trek / Ender's Game / Elysium / Lone Ranger

Sound Editing
Gravity / Monuments / Captain Phillips / Monster's University / Rush
alts: Elysium / Pacific Rim / Lost / Iron Man Three / 12 Years / Lone Ranger / Star Trek

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Best Picture Oscar 2013 - July Predictions

Well, putting The Secret Life of Walter Mitty at the #1 spot certainly didn't last long, did it?  I promised myself that I would wait until Christmas to reconsider.  But, that's too long for me, especially if there aren't any new indicators to suggest buzz for at least a couple of months.  While I strive to keep the movement in positions to a minimum and resist clouding of judgment brought on by "flavor of the moment" developments like new trailers, I'm going to make another bold move and kick it down to bubble territory and go from there.  So, for now, Mitty is going to lay low(er), which is where it really should have been to begin with.  I then had to debate what to place at the very top, and the best I could come up with was Fruitvale Station.  It's a sentimental story that's topical and backed by Harvey Weinstein.  It's small scale and kind of a downer, but it's released and the reviews have been solid.  It'll make a decent enough of a placeholder for now.  I was debating placing one of Harvey's other horses, August: Osage County, at the top of the stack, but its chances are pretty slim.  It's an entertaining, but biting family drama lined with dark edges.  I'm not sure if even Weinstein could push such material to the very end.  I was going to go with Inside Llewyn Davis from the quickly growing CBS Films.  It's not like producer Scott Rudin is unfamiliar with the Oscar game and it's a Coen brothers' film with solid reviews thus far.

I'm so weary of putting another usual suspect back on top.  Perceived "winners" rarely win these days.  But, this may be a predictable year and Monuments Men, American Hustle, or The Wolf of Wall Street may end up taking it.  Monuments is a World War II drama which is sometimes enough for automatic nomination consideration, especially in a year bereft of films that are more classically period (though, with the advent of The Book Thief, and perhaps The Railway Man, that could change).  It doesn't hurt that it has Argo's producers, and Hollywood favorite Clooney with his hands in several jars.  The only element that may work against it is its subject matter.  Not to reduce or belittle what it's about, but unless its a critical favorite, it must court the favor of public opinion in large numbers.  And I just don't know if the public at large will care that much about saving great works of art in a film that may have little emotional pull.  But, it should still rack in the nominations.

Hustle will have to top everything its director has done commercially and critically.  But, I'm also biased, because I'm personally dubious about David O. Russell and Christian Bale.  Some things are just hard to shake.  However, Hustle's original script was a great start.  Like a cross between Goodfellas and Argo (O. Russell compared the original script to the latter, though, according to him, he has modified it beyond similarity), it's small scale, yet epic-in-scope in an entertaining manner.  While cynical, it has an audience-friendly resolution (probably even happier now that it was overhauled partly to fictionalize particulars that already weren't; I imagine because the real-life counterpart for the lead was a scoundrel).  It has the makings of a great film, but there is circumstantial evidence that makes me wonder.  Those out-of-context onset pictures of 70s hair and garb, the latter care of unnominated Michael Wilkinson, tests the limits of credulity and give pause. I almost get an all or nothing feel to this venture.  Both of the aforementioned films were the final major contenders to go before the cameras, as they lensed later Winter/early Spring.  Might one of them get delayed?  (Perhaps not as likely, as Sony's likeliest postponement candidate may be Foxcatcher.)

I'm also not big on handing Scorsese another Oscar after he already got a retroactive Oscar six years ago for a movie that doesn't rank anywhere near his early masterpieces.  And, after skimming the novel Wolf is based on, as well as watching the trailer, I'm even sketchy about its chances at a nomination.  Like Hustle, we have a protagonist who lives in excess, screws people over, gets caught, and then becomes a government tool.  One leans more towards gangsters, has an emotional appeal, and is set in the 1970s.  The other, which takes place in the 1990s, seems to be a little lighter in fare.  Yet, no one seems to be discussing just how similar they are in the context of their chances.  We hear about like-movies being produced at the same time and releasing within months of each other.  There have been many examples, but The Deep Impact and Armageddon always immediately springs to mind.  But, that was more of a battle at the box office (well Armageddon did score four nominations).  However, there was room for both Goodfellas and The Godfather III in 1990.  So, there's that.

One thing I love about Nat Rogers is how skeptical he is of the Too Big Too Fail set.  This year, I wonder about his predictions overall.  He seemed *way* off with most of his guesses up until last month.  And the fact that he has regulated all three of these films to outlier status is quite intriguing.  I don't believe this will be the case.  However, being one who has almost included all three in my Top Nine up until now, I can't help but deliberate just which one (or two) won't make the cut at the end of the year.  Because you know what?  ONE of these films, at least, will be left off of the final Oscar ballots.  I'm sure of it.

What about the rest?  With Inside Llewyn Davis, All Is Lost, Nebraska, and The Past, Cannes certainly shook up the Oscar race and added a lot of new factors.  And, the surprising financial success mixed with lukewarm reviews for The Great Gatsby certainly isn't something that can be written off even as purely an outlier, especially if Warner Bros. put all of their eggs in one basket.  But, that ship has sailed as distribution hands for Gravity have switched over to WB since I wrote that last sentence.  Keep in mind that the studio, which distributed last year's Argo has been a fixture in the Best Picture race since 2006, when it had two entries in a Field of Five, including the winner (a feat it achieved only two years earlier).  Though, if we're talking about pre-Summer films that have a chance at slipping into the Best Picture field, there's also Mud.  It's now Roadside Attractions/ Lionsgate's highest grossing film ever (and climbing).  The distributor has not only had Oscar luck with Winter's Bone, but it did quite nicely with Albert Nobbs and J.C. Chandor's Margin Call, if we're talking ancillary nominations.  But, will Chandor's Lost steal whatever thunder Mud can muster this Fall?  The studio has only been able to handle one film at a time thus far.  Robert Redford's surely going to get the royal treatment before anything else.  Along with Fruitvale Station and Before Midnight, both of which debuted at Sundance, there are only so many festival favorites pre-Venice that you can fit into a BP field (going backwards in time to the last few races: two, three-ish, two, four-ish).

One of the things that bugs me about other's predictions is how little they take into account the distributor that is putting out the film (as of May 31st, Rope of Silicon had four Sony pictures in the Top Seven; huh?).  The chances of a studio getting three movies in the Top "Ten" are slim.  It can happen, but it generally doesn't.  One studio getting in two is pretty common, generally, now with a field of ten-ish, though it might sometimes happen with two different studios.  That being said, the only studios that appear to have any chance of entering more than one horse in the race are TWC, Sony, and Paramount (with a small shout out to Universal).  I'd put my money on TWC and Sony.  Warner Bros. and Fox Searchlight actually do quite well for themselves every year, usually getting at least one movie into the Best Picture field, or doing well with other categories considering what they have to work with (Crazy Heart anyone?).  I suppose that's why I'm weighing 12 Year's chances while ignoring Steve McQueen's abrasive directing style.  While, the studio may pick up a more competitive awards contender at Telluride or Toronto, I'm going to stick to my guns.  It's one of the rare "classical" period entries this year.  It also has Brad Pitt as a producer.  And missing Quentin Tarantino's signature comedic panache, it deals with similar subject matter as Django Unchained in a more sobering light.

The thing that bugs me most about my list is that it skews very December-heavy.  Two of my top predictions come out on Christmas (or later).  While that happened last year (there were four which "opened wide" the last week of December or subsequently; three the year before; two before that; and one-ish before that), it's not common.   Non-December Releases: Mud, The Great Gatsby, Before Midnight, Fruitvale Station, Blue Jasmine, The B*****, Rush, The Fifth Estate, Gravity, Captain Phillips, The Wolf of Wall Street, All Is Lost, Black Nativity and The Counselor.  And, more recently, 12 Years a Slave.  Surely, some of the films are going to stand out compared to all the movies crammed into the final month of the year.

A lot of people like to predict the safer bets, those films with previously AMPAS nominated/winning talent, especially with long track records.  The temptation has been greater I imagine, because, for the last two years, 2/3rd's of the BP nominees were directed by previous directing nominees/winners.  Before that it was 1/5th, and before that 2/5ths.  And, this year offers a slew of possibilities.  Can Russell be nominated three times in four years and not win?  (Well, he has to get that third nomination before we answer that question)  And, can Scorsese get his 8th nod and not win his second?  (Again, he has to get nominated first.)  And Allen is working on the same number.

There are other elements I would like to touch on, but since I've covered so much (and said so little), I'll leave it for maybe next time.  But, I am curious as to how "movie star" producers, happy endings, period verses contemporary (and the ambiguity in between), fictional verses non-fictional, and more in-depth coverage of December releases; directors with previous AMPAS favor, all play into the Best Picture races of the past.  For now, here are my July Predictions for Best Picture 2013:

1 (+2). Fruitvale Station (TWC).  Released.  Director/Screenplay: Ryan Coogler.  Cast: Michael B. Jordan, Octavia Spencer (also a coproducer), and Chad Michael Murray.  Costume Designer: Aggie Guerard Rodgers (The Color Purple, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, Pee Wee's Big Adventure).  IMDb: 7.6 (174 users).  Pros: TWC, Great festival reviews; appeals to audience's emotions, especially liberals.  Cons: Smaller scale, potentially polarizing.  Producer: Forest Whitaker.  Read my thoughts on an aggregate of reviews here.  While I don't believe this film will win in the end (unless everything else that hasn't yet been seen all fail), I finally feel comfortable with having a picture in the first position that is officially "the one to beat."  

2 (+6). Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS).  Release Date: 12/20 (expansion).  Dir: Coen brothers.  Screenplay: Loosely based on folksinger Dave Van Ronk's 2005 memoir The Mayor of MacDougal (finished posthumously by Elijah Wald).  Cast: Oscar Isaac, Garrett Hedlund, Carey Mulligan, Adam Driver, John Goodman, and Justin Timberlake.  Cinematographer: Bruno Delbonnel (Amélie, A Very Long Engagement, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince).  Production Designer: Jess Gonchor (True Grit, Foxcatcher, The Lone Ranger).  Costume Designer: Mary Zophres (True Grit).  Producer: Scott Rudin, Coen brothers.  Pros: Great festival reviews, the Coen brothers.  Cons: Unassuming, untested film studio.

3 (+1). The Monuments Men (Sony).  Release Date: 12/18.  Dir: George Clooney.  Adapted Screenplay: Clooney, Grant Heslov from Robert M. Edsel book.  Cast: Clooney, Daniel Craig, Matt Damon, John Goodman, Bill Murray, Cate Blanchett, Jean Dujardin, Bob Balaban. Cinematographer: Phedon Papamichael (The Descendants, The Pursuit of Happyness, Walk the Line, Sideways).  Composer: Alexandre Desplat (Argo, The King's Speech, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Queen).  Production Designer: James D. Bissell (Good Night, and Good Luck., E.T.).  Costume Designer: Louise Frogley (The Ides of March, Traffic).  Producers: Clooney, Heslov.  Pros: Cast and crew, from the producers of Argo, Clooney, historic.  Cons: Will have to answer the question of whether the masses will care about saving great works of art.

4 (+1). 12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight).  Release Date: 10/18 (moved up two months).  Dir: Steve McQueen.  Screenplay: McQueen, John Ridley from Solomon Northup's memoir.  Cast: Chiwetel Ejiofor, Brad Pitt, Michael Fassbender, Benedict Cumberbatch, Paul Giamatti, Paul Dano, Quvenzhané Wallis, Dwight Henry, Sarah Paulson, and Taran Killam.  Editor: Joe Walker.  Composer: Hans Zimmer.  Cinematographer: Sean Bobbitt.  Production Designer: Adam Stockhausen (Moonrise Kingdom).  Producers: Brad Pitt.  Pros: Historic.  Cons: graphic; cold, detached director.  

5 (+3). Saving Mr. Banks (Walt Disney).  RD: 12/13 (limited; 12/20 expansion).  Dir: John Lee Hancock (The Blind Side).  Original Screenplay: Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith.  Cast: Emma Thompson, Tom Hanks, Colin Farrell, Annie Rose Buckley.  Cinematographer: John Schwartzman (Seabiscuit).  Production Designer: Michael Corenblith (How the Grinch Stole Christmas, Apollo 13).  Composer: Thomas Newman (eleven times nominated, never won).  Producers: Alison Owen (Elizabeth).  Filmed Fall 2012 in SoCal.  Read my review of the script here.

6 (-4). August: Osage County (TWC).  Release Date: 12/25.  Dir: John Wells.  Adapted Screenplay: Tracy Letts from his play.  Cast: Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Margo Martindale, Chris Cooper, Ewan McGregor, Benedict Cumberbatch, Juliette Lewis, Sam Shepard, Julianne Nicholson, Dermot Mulroney, and Abigail Breslin.  Editor: Stephen Mirrione (Babel, Traffic).  Cinematographer: Adriano Goldman (Jane Eyre, Sin Nombre).  Production Designer: David Gropman (Life of Pi, The Cide House Rules).  Costume Designer: Cindy Evans.  Producers: Argonauts Clooney, Heslov, and Weinstein.  Budget: $25M.  Pros: TWC, cast and crew, based on Tony-winning play, entertaining.  Cons: Cold, dark.  Read my review of the play here.

7 (+3). American Hustle (Sony).  RD: 12/13 (limited; 12/30 expansion).  Dir: David O. Russell.  Original Screenplay: Eric Singer and Russell.  Cast: Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence.  Cinematographer: Linus Sandgren (Promised Land).  Production Designer: Judy Becker (O. Russell's last two films, as well as Brokeback Mountain).  Costume Designer: Michael Wilkinson.  Producers: Megan Ellison, Charles Roven (The Dark Knight).  Pros: O. Russell's track record of late, period, somewhat epic in scale.  Cons: Have you seen the wigs and costumes (granted, out of context)?  And will Sony spread itself too thin?  Read review of the original script here.

8 (-2). Nebraska (Paramount).  RD: 11/22 (limited).  Dir: Alexander Payne.  Original Screenplay: Bob Nelson. Cast: Bruce Dern, Will Forte, June Squibb, Stacy Keach, Bob Odenkirk.  Editor: Kevin Tent (The Descendants).  Cinematographer: Phedon Papamichael (Walk the Line, The Pursuit of Happyness, The Ides of March, the Descendants, The Monuments Men).  Production Designer: J. Dennis Washington.  Costume Designer: Wendy Chuck.  Producers: Albert Berger, Ron Yerxa (Little Miss Sunshine, Cold Mountain, Little Children, Election).  Pros: mixed, but positive reviews (including the score, cinematography).  The Academy loves their Payne.  Cons: Pessimistic, and exactly how representational were those mixed reviews?

9 (New).  Philomena (TWC).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Stephen Frears.  Adapted Screenplay: Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope from Martin Sixsmith's The Lost Child of Philomena Lee.  Cast: Judi Dench, Coogan, Sean Mahon.  Editor: Valerio Bonelli.  Cinematographer: Robbie Ryan.  Production Designer: Alan MacDonald.  Costume Designer: Consolata Boyle (The Queen).  Producers: Tracey Seaward (The Queen), Coogan.

10 (New). All Is Lost (Lionsgate).  RD: 10/18 (moved up one week).  Dir: J.C. Chandor.   Original Screenplay: Chandor.  Cast: Robert Redford.  Cinematographer: Frank G. DeMarco (Hedwig and the Angry Inch).  Editor: Peter Beaudreau.  Composer: Alex Ebert.  Production Designer: John P. Goldsmith.  Costume Designer: Van Broughton Ramsey.  Pros: Great festival reviews (including the score), J.C. Chandor is an up-and-comer in the AMPAS' eyes.  The Old Man and the Sea, Castaway, Life of Pi.  Cons: We don't even get flashbacks, an island, or dialogue.  And its not the shiniest star out of Sundance/Cannes.

11 (+9). Blue Jasmine (SPC).  RD: 7/26.  Dir: Woody Allen.  Cinematographer: Javier Aguirresarobe (The Others).  Production Designer: Santo Loquasto (longtime Allen collaborator nominated for three of his films).  Producers: Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum (Midnight in Paris).

12 (+3). Gravity (WB).  RD: 10/4.  Dir: Alfonso Cuarón.  Original Screenplay: Cuarón and brother Jonas.  Editors: Cuarón, Mark Sanger.  Composer: Steven Price.  Cinematographer: Emmanuel Lubezki (Cuarón's longtime collaborator has been nominated five times without a win--twice for movies they've done together--being overlooked two years ago for The Tree of Life).  Production Designer: Andy Nicholson.  Costume Designer: Jany Temine (Skyfall, the Harry Potter franchise since Azkaban).  Pros: Great script.  Cons: It's genre.  Read my review of the script here.

13 (-2). Before Midnight (SPC).  Released.  Dir: Richard Linklater.  Screenplay: Linklater, Delpy, Hawke.  Cast: Delpy, Hawke.   Editor: Sandra Adair.  Cinematographer: Lee Daniel.  Composer: Fred Frith.  Production Designer: Florian Reichmanm.   IMDb: 8.5 (7k users).  RT/MC: 98/94.  Pros: Critical darling.  Cons: Too brainy, and not very touchy-feely.

14 (-1). The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount).  RD: 11/15.  Dir: Martin Scorsese.  Screenplay: Terence Winter adaptated Jordan Belfort's memoir.  Cast: Leonardo DiCaprio, Matthew McConaughey, Jonah Hill, Kyle Chandler, Jon Favreau, Jean Dujardin, Rob Reiner, Spike Jonze, Christine Ebersole, Fran Lebowitz, Margot Robbie, and Joanna Lumley.  Editor: Thelma Schoonmaker.  Composer: Howard Shore (Hugo, LOTR).  Cinematographer: Rodrigo Prieto (Brokeback Mountain, Argo, Babel).  Production Designer: Bob Shaw.  Costume Designer: Sandy Powell.  Producers: Scorsese, DiCaprio. Budget: $100M.  Pros: Scorsese's track record of late.  Cons: Unsympathetic subject matter; can Paramount juggle it along with Nebraska?

15 (-14).  The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox).  Release Date: 12/25.  Dir: Ben Stiller.  Cast: Stiller, Kristen Wiig.  Editor: Greg Hayden.  Composer: Theodore Shapiro.  Cinematographer: Stuart Dryburgh (The Piano).  Production Designer: Jeff Mann.  Costume Designer: Sarah Edwards.  Producers: Stiller, Samuel Goldwyn Jr (Master and Commander), John Goldwyn (I'm Not There).  Pros: Industry stalwart tackling his most ambitious project yet, great early word from a small clip shown at CinemaCon.  Cons: Not exactly an Oscar-caliber crew, and perhaps too light in tone, and is there really room for two movie-star directors in one race?  Read my writeup based on the James Thurber short story here.

16 (New).  The Book Thief (Fox 2000).  RD: 14/1/17 (or 11/15).  Dir: Brian Percival.  Adapted Screenplay: Michael Petroni from the book by Markus Zusak.  Cast: Geoffrey Rush, Emily Watson, Sophie Nelisse.  Editor: John Wilson (Billy Elliot).  Costume Designer: Anna B. Sheppard (Schindler's List, The Pianist).  Filmed in Potsdam and Berlin.

17 (--). The Fifth Estate (Walt Disney).  RD: 10/11 (changed from 11/15).  Dir: Bill Condon (Dreamgirls, Gods and Monsters).  Adapted Screenplay: Josh Singer from several sources.  Cast: Benedict Cumberbatch, Daniel Brühl, Anthony Mackie, and Carice van Houten.  Editor: Virginia Katz (Dreamgirls).  Cinematographer: Tobias A. Schliessler (Dreamgirls).  Production Designer: Mark Tildesley (The Constant Gardener).  Production Designer: Shay Cunliffe (part of the Bourne series).  Composer: Carter Burwell.  Producers: Steve Golin (Babel, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Being John Malkovich).

18 (-9). Captain Phillips (Sony).  RD: 10/11.  Dir: Paul Greengrass.  Screenplay: Billy Ray.  Cast: Tom Hanks.  Editor: Christopher Rouse (The Bourne Ultimatum, United 93).  Cinematographer: Barry Ackroyd (The Hurt Locker, United 93).  Costume Designer: Mark Bridges (The Artist, P.T. Anderson and David O. Russell films).  Producers: Scott Rudin, Michael De Luca (Moneyball, The Social Network), Dana Brunetti (The Social Network).  Watch the trailer here. 

19 (+35). The B***** (TWC).  RD: 8/16 (moved up two months).  Dir: Lee Daniels.  "Adapted" Screenplay: Danny Strong from an article written by Wil Haygood.  Cast: Forest Whitaker, Oprah Winfrey, Terrence Howard, and a list of stunt-casting long and dubious enough to give one an elongated pause.  Editor: Joe Klotz (Precious, Rabbit Hole).  Cinematography: Andrew Dunn (The Madness of King George, Precious).  Costume Designer: Ruth E. Carter (Malcolm X, Amistad).  Producers: Daniels, Laura Ziskin (her final film), Cassian Elwes (Dallas Buyers Club, Margin Call, Blue Valentine), and around forty other people (not kidding).  Budget: $25M (filmed Summer 2012).  This looks pretty bad, and I've joked how this will never figure into the race.  Maybe it won't.  But, at least right now, there's the looming threat it might.

20 (+8). Rush (Universal).  RD: 9/20.  Dir: Ron Howard.  Original Screenplay: Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon, The Queen).  Editor: Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill (Apollo 13, etc.).  Cinematographer: Anthony Dod Mantle (Slumdog Millionaire).  Production Designer: Mark Digby.  Costume Designer: Julian Day.  Composer: Hans Zimmer.  Producers: Ron Howard, Brian Grazer (Apollo 13, A Beautiful Mind, Frost/Nixon), Eric Fellner (Elizabeth, Atonement, Frost/Nixon, Les Misérables), Brian Oliver (Black Swan).

21 (New).  Mud (Lionsgate).  Released.  Dir: Jeff Nichols.  Producer: Sarah Green (The Tree of Life).  IMDb: 7.9 (8k users).  RT/MC: 98/76.

22 (New).  Lone Survivor (Universal).  RD: 12/27 (limited).  Editor, Composer, Cinematographer, and Production Designer have never been nominated before.  Producers: Akiva Goldsman (A Beautiful Mind), Barry Spikings (The Deer Hunter).

23 (-5). Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom (TWC).  RD: 11/27.  Dir: Justin Chadwick.  Screenplay: William Nicholson (Shadowlands, Gladiator, Les Misérables, Elizabeth: The Golden Age).  Cast: Idris Elba, Naomie Harris.  Composer: Alex Heffes (The Last King of Scotland).  Cinematographer: Lol Crawley (Hyde Park on Hudson).  Production Designer: Johnny Breedt (Hotel Rwanda).

24 (-5). The Past (SPC).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Asghar Farhadi (A Separation).  Screenplay: Farhadi and Massoumeh Lahidji.  Editor: Juliette Welfling (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly).  Cinematographer: Mahmoud Kalari (A Separation).  Production Designer: Claude Lenoir (Three Colours Trilogy).  Budget: $11M (filmed in Paris Fall 2012).

25 (-4). A Most Wanted Man (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Director: Anton Crobijn.  Adapted Screenplay: Andrew Bovell from a novel by John le Carré.  Editor: Claire Simpson (Platoon, The Constant Gardener, The Reader).  Cinematographer: Benoit Delhomme.  Production Designer: Sebastian T. Krawinkel.  Costume Designer: Nicole Fischnaller.  Composer: Herbert Grönemeyer.  

26 (-2). The Railway Man (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Jonathan Teplitzky (Burning Man).  Adapted Screenplay: Frank Cottrell Boyce and Andy Paterson from the novel by Eric Lomax.  Cinematographer: Garry Phillips.  Production Designer: Steven Jones-Evans.  Costume Designer: Lizzy Gardiner (Priscilla, Queen of the Desert).  Composer: David Hirschfelder (Elizabeth, Shine, Australia).

27 (New). Black Nativity (Fox Searchlight).  RD: 11/27.  Dir: Kasi Lemmons.
Producer: William Horberg (Cold Mountain), Celine Rattray (The Kids Are All Right), and Sting's wife!

28 (+2). Devil's Knot (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Atom Egoyan.  Dir: Atom Egoyan (The Sweet Hereafter).  Adapted Screenplay: Paul Harris and Scott Derrickson from the book by Mara Leveritt.  Editor: Susan Shipton.  Cinematographer: Paul Sarossy.  Production Designer: Phillip Barker.  Costume Designer: Kari Perkins (Mud).  Composer: Mychael Danna (Life of Pi, Moneyball, Little Miss Sunshine, Capote).

29 (New). Blue Is the Warmest Color (Sundance Selects).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Abdellatif Kechiche.  

30 (-14). The Counselor (20th Century Fox).  RD: 10/25 (moved up a few weeks).  Dir: Ridley Scott.  Original Screenplay: Cormac McCarthy.    Editor: Pietro Scalia (JFK, Good Will Hunting, Gladiator, Black Hawk Down).  Cinematographer: Dariusz Wolski (Sweeney Todd).  Production Designer: Arthur Max (Gladiator, American Gangster).  Costume Designer: Janty Yates (Gladiator).  Composer: Daniel Pemberton.  Producers; Ridley Scott, Nick Wechsler (The Player).  Read my review of the script here.  

31 (+6). The Great Gatsby (WB).  Released.  Dir: Baz Luhrman.  Producers: Luhrman, Douglas Wick (Gladiator, Working Girl), Lucy Fisher (Memoirs of a Geisha).  IMDb: 7.5 (74k users).  RT/MC: 49/55.

32 (-7). Dallas Buyers Club (Focus).  RD: 12/6.  Dir: Jean-Marc Vallée.  Original Screenplay: Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack.  Editors: Martin Pensa and Vallée.  Cinematographer: Yves Bélanger.  Production Designer: John Paino.  Costume Designers: Kurt and Bart.  

33 (-21). Foxcatcher (Sony).  RD: N/A.  Director: Bennett Miller.  Screenplay: E. Max Frye (Something Wild) and Dan Futterman (Capote).  Cinematographer: Greig Fraser (Zero Dark Thirty, Killing Them Softly).  Production Designer: Jess Gonchor (True Grit, Moneyball).  Costume Designer: Kasia Walicka-Maimone (Moonrise Kingdom, Moneyball).  Cast: Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, Channing Tatum, Sienna Miller, Vanessa Redgrave, Anthony Michael Hall, and Tara Subkoff.  Producers: Megan Ellison, Bennett Miller, Anthony Bregman (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind).  Read my review of the script here.

34 (+28). 42 (WB).  Released.  Director/Screenplay: Brian Helgeland.  IMDb: 7.6 (13k users).  RT/MC: 77/62.

35 (-2). Knight of Cups (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Terrence Malick.
36 (-2). Lawless (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Terrence Malick.
37 (-2). Grace of Monaco (TWC).  RD: 11/27 (moved up a month).  Dir: Olivier Dahan.
38 (+5). Her (WB).  RD: 11/22.  Dir: Spike Jonze.  An Annapurna production.
39 (+24). Thérèse (LD Entertainment).  RD: 9/27.  Dir: Charlie Stratton.
40 (+16). The Invisible Woman (SPC).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Ralph Fiennes.

41 (+16). The Two Faces of January (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Hossein Amini.  
42 (+20). Labor Day (Paramount).  RD: 12/30 (limited).  Dir: Jason Reitman.   Read my script/book review here.
43 (-5). Parkland (Open Road).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Peter Landesman.
44 (-3). The Hunt (Magnolia).  RD: 7/12.  Dir: Thomas Vinterberg.
45 (+7). Oldboy (FilmDistrict).  RD: 10/25 (pushed back two weeks).  Dir: Spike Lee.
46 (-14). The Way, Way Back (Fox Searchlight).  RD: 7/5.  Dir: Nat Faxon & Jim Rash.  Read my thoughts on an aggregate of reviews here.
47 (+4). Ain't Them Bodies Saints (IFC).  RD: 8/16.  Dir: David Lowery. 
48 (-17). The Spectacular Now (A24).  RD: 8/2.  Dir: James Ponsoldt. 
49 (+18). Frances Ha (IFC).  Released.  Dir: Noah Baumbach.  IMDb: 7.6 (555 users).  IMDb: 7.7 (2k users).  RT/MC: 91/81.
50 (-23). The Family (Relativity).  RD: 9/13 (moved up a month).  Dir: Luc Besson.  

51 (+17). Night Moves (N/A).  RD: 9/20.  Dir: Kelly Reichardt.
52 (-29). Prisoners (WB).  RD: 9/20.  Dir: Denis Villeneuve.  Read my script review here.
53 (-13). Serena (Magnolia).  RD: 9/27.  Dir: Susanne Bier.
54 (-9). Snowpiercer (TWC).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Joon-ho Bong.
55 (--). Out of the Furnace (Relativity).  RD: 11/27 (pushed back).  Dir: Scott Cooper.  Read my script review here.
56 (-42). The Immigrant (TWC).  RD: N/A.  Dir: James Gray.
57 (+7). Under the Skin (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Jonathan Glazer.
58 (+13).  Ender's Game (Summit).  RD: 11/1.  Dir: Gavin Hood.
59 (-33). Star Trek Into Darkness (Paramount).  Released.  Dir: J.J. Abrams. IMDb: 8.2 (120k users).  RT/MC: 87/72.
60 (-2). The World's End (Focus).  RD: 8/23.  Dir: Edgar Wright.

61 (-14). The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus).  Released.  Dir: Derek Cianfrance.  IMDb: 7.5 (50k users).  RT/MC: 82/68.
62 (+4). The Grandmaster (TWC).  RD: 8/23.  Dir: Kar Wai Wong.  
63 (-19). 47 Ronin (Universal).  RD: 12/25.  Dir: Carl Rinsch.
64 (-18). Elysium (Sony).  RD: 8/9.  Dir: Neill Blomkamp.  Read my script review here.
65 (+6). Pacific Rim (WB).  RD: 7/12.  Dir: Guillermo del Toro.  Read my script review here.
66 (-44). Frozen (Walt Disney).  RD: 11/27.  Dir: Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee.
67 (+8). Kill Your Darlings (SPC).  RD: N/A.  Dir: John Krokidas. 
68 (+5). Closed Circuit (Focus).  RD: 8/28.  Dir: John Crowley.

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Best Lead / Supporting Actress Oscar 2013 - July Predictions

Well, this has been a truly crazy year for the Best Actress race (and it hasn't really gotten underway, yet).  Last year, there were seemingly so few options.  This year, there's a decent amount, but, oddly, they're all mostly former winners, whether in the lead or supporting race.  And, as history has dictated, there are so many that can fit in, especially leads.  But rules are meant to be broken, right?  Still, Meryl Streep is a lock.  She has been since she was cast.  The question is: how will her costar Julia Roberts be campaigned.  She has gotten strong early word in the less showy role, and has the greatest arc.  Will/can she be campaigned as supporting?  Thanks to a few others, I'm having my doubts again.  But, if she's campaigned as lead, I just don't see her getting in.  Nicole Kidman probably figured The Academy wouldn't nominate her unless she classed it up.  It's just hard for me to imagine that after going through all the trouble of getting Grace of Monaco off the ground, she's going to fall short.  She wants this.  She has all of her ducks in a row.  I guess the only question is if her guy Harvey Weinstein has sabotaged her chances with too many candidates under his guide.  He already had a full plate, yet he still laid down $6.5M for Philomena, a huge vote of confidence if there was one, which speaks to Judi Dench's chances.  Their collaborations have resulted in five nominations and one win.  Can he pull a hat-trick?  He has done it before.  But that still leaves the non-Weinstein-backed former winners like Cate Blanchett, whose film opens in less than a month, and Emma Thompson, who is viewed by some as unambitious when it comes to campaigning.

It's quite possible that every nominee in the category this year already has an Oscar or two or three under her belt.  I'm still holding out that we'll have one who doesn't, perhaps never even having reached the nomination level.  But, then, personal bias gets in the way.  Obviously, I would love to see Rachel McAdams or Elizabeth Olsen get nominated, especially for stellar work.  But, it's wishful thinking in a vacuum with nothing to replace it.

Lead Actress
1 (+1). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
2 (-1). Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
3 (+26). Judi Dench, Philomena 
4 (+3). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine 
5 (+9). Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man

6 (-2). Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
7 (New). Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color
8 (-2). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (supporting?)
9 (+6). Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
10 (-7). Naomi Watts, Diana

11 (-3). Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse
12 (New). Amy Adams, American Hustle (supporting?)
13 (+22). Dakota Fanning, Effie
14 (New). Kirsten Dunst, The Two Faces of January
15 (-2). Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
16. (-5). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers; 2014?
17 (+1). Sandra Bullock, Gravity
18 (-9). Kate Winslet, Labor Day
19 (+12). Jessica Brown Findlay, Winter's Tale
20 (-15). Zoe Saldana, Nina

21 (-4). Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
22 (+3). Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby
23 (+9). Annette Bening, The Face of Love
24 (New). Bérénice Bejo, The Past
25 (-1). Rebecca Hall, A Promise 
26 (+14). Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
27 (-11). Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
28 (-7). Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
29 (-10). Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
30 (-8). Rooney Mara, Ain't Them Bodies Saints

31 (+7). Robin Weigert, Concussion
32 (-12). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
33 (+3). Julianne Hough, Paradise
34 (-11). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (supporting?)
35 (+6). Mia Wasikowska, Tracks
36 (New). Jessica Chastain, Miss Julie (perhaps a late 2013 surprise)
37 (+7). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot (supporting?)
38 (-10). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (supporting?)
39 (-27). Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace
40 (-1). Kristen Wiig, Girl Most Likely (formerly Imogene)

41 (+1). Lily Rabe, The First (2014?)
42 (-5). Emmanuelle Seigner, Venus in Fur
43 (-10). Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
44 (-10). Michelle Pfeiffer, The Family (supporting?)
45 (-2). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His
46 (-1). Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall

46 (--). Robin Wright, Adore
47 (--). Mia Wasikowska, Madame Bovary
48 (--). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
49 (+6). Scarlett Johansson, Under the Skin
50 (+1). Lake Bell, In a World ...
51 (+2). Hilary Swank, You're Not You
53 (+1). Keri Russell, Austenland 

The supporting race is filled with more polarizing options currently.  There are some indicators that Cameron Diaz could finally experience her big Oscar break.  She's directed by Ridley Scott who isn't immune from getting some of his actors nominations.  And, while he doesn't have any major heat coming off from any of his most recent movies, he does have a sporadicly consistent history with the AMPAS over the last three decades.  The role, primarily is a doozy.  It plays to Diaz' strengths on a couple of levels, so, to me, there is a high probability that she will deliver the goods.  The bigger question is the part, which is hard to discuss without getting into spoilery territory.  But, it's safe to say it's a very sexually confident role, which doesn't win favor very often with The Academy.  And, the archetype she plays also doesn't have a very good track record.  Couple that with Diaz' lack of nomination history, and her case begins to fall apart.  However, I find personal bias clouding my judgment, and it's hard to discern just how genuine her probabilities are.  I find myself impressing upon her long record of commercial viability.  She's one of the few female Hollywood stars that have an established drawing power, as well as having opened a movie on her own (Bad Teacher) to high returns. This may mean very little ultimately to the awards circuit, as she's not Julia Roberts, Reese Witherspoon, or Sandra Bullock, but I just find her underrated and would love to see her get a little recognition.  But, hey, if The Globes wouldn't even recognize her for a slam-dunk comedic performance in Teacher (they went with Jodie Foster and Kate Winslet in the little seen, and unimpressive Carnage; and it's not like they haven't gone for Roberts, Witherspoon, Bullock, or Meg Ryan in lesser films in the past), than perhaps the plume really is off her rose.

Another polarizing option is Oprah Winfrey.  She was welcomed by the AMPAS in the much-nominated The Color Purple (1985) before she became an international media mogul.  When she gave the world "her baby" in Jonathan Demme's Beloved in 1998, audiences, critics, and The Academy rejected it.  Now, the director of Precious Lee Daniels is back with the very baity The Butler.  It looks like a steaming pile of something else (I guaranteed it wouldn't be a player; now, I may have to eat crow), but, The Help looked like a Lifetime movie in its initial trailer and it did very well for itself.  On one hand, the stunt casting of several generations of presidents and first ladies gives one pause, but, then you have Harvey Weinstein trying to recreate The Help's success with an obvious release date strategy exactly two years later to the weekend for a film with black leads, and servant relationships to their employer.  Winfrey, however, has already recently received an honorary Oscar.  And, unlike Cher, for instance, the media personality hasn't been building up industry good-will towards a possible win.  I don't know.  I'd bet on Diaz before Winfrey, because I'm stubborn.

The safest choice, held by many is four-times-nominated Amy Adams, because director David O. Russell has gotten her (as well as many others) a very recent nod.  Some seem to believe she could go lead, though I haven't heard one convincing argument that isn't based on some fantasy scenario.  If they threw the original script out the window and completely beefed up her role, than it's a possibility. But no one has actually come out and said that yet.  A more ambiguous situation is Julia Roberts.  While her Barbara Weston in August is clearly a lead (she will likely have the most screen time, the biggest arc, and has solid word from people who have seen early screenings), she'll be overshadowed by the showier performance from her elder Meryl Streep, who is most definitely getting a lead nod.  Further complicating the situation, is distributor TWC with obligations to both Best Actress frontrunners Philomena and Grace of Monaco.  Not that Roberts ever plays second banana to other women, I can imagine her willing to do it for some reason, though just how Weinstein is going to commit category fraud in order to get it accomplished is beyond me.  She's not a kid or grandpa, which would make it an easier sell.  It would be weird for her to not get flat-out nominated, but, I guess it's what I'm almost saying here.  Though if Dench or Kidman falter, Roberts would quite easily slip in.

The surest choice, at this point, is recent winner Octavia Spencer.  Strong reviews in a Weinstein picture that is very likely to land in many major categories gives her an edge that no one else holds at present.  Blue Jasmine will be coming out soon, and the excitement the trailer has generated for Cate Blanchett has rubbed off a little on Sally Hawkins, who won a Golden Globe five years ago for her superb work in happy-go-lucky, but narrowly missed out on Oscar recognition.

Supporting Actress
1  (+3). Amy Adams, American Hustle
2 (--). Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale
3 (-2). Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
4. (+1). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor 
5 (+6). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men

6 (-3). June Squibb, Nebraska
7 (+14). Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
8 (+6). Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
9. (-3). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (lead?)
10 (-2). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (lead?)

11 (+2). Alison Janney, The Way, Way Back
12 (+8). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
13 (+5). Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
14 (+8). Annette Bening, Girl Most Likely
15 (New). Carice Van Houten, The Fifth Estate
16 (+9). Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyer's Club

17 (+2). Annie Rose Buckley, Saving Mr. Banks
18 (+38). Nicole Kidman, Stoker
19 (-2). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
20 (-8). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (lead?)

21 (+10). Julianne Nicholson, August: Osage County
22 (-13). Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
23 (+6). Robin Wright, A Most Wanted Man
24 (+8). Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
25 (-9). Rosie Perez, The Counselor
26 (+9). Lupito Nyong'O, Twelve Years a Slave
27 (+13). Adepero Udeye, Twelve Years a Slave
28 (+18). Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
29 (+18). Jessica Lange, Thérèse
30 (-2). Viola Davis, Prisoners

31 (+5). Elizabeth Olsen, Oldboy
32 (+6). Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
33 (-3). Isla Fischer, The Great Gatsby
34 (-10). Helen Bonham Carter, The Young and Prodigious Spivet
35 (+7). Mario Bello, Prisoners
36 (-2). Sienna Miller, Foxcatcher
37 (+14). Amy Adams, Lullaby
38 (+3). Juliette Lewis, August: Osage County
39 (-16). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
40 (+5). Abigail Breslin, August: Osage County

41 (+9). Amy Adams, Her
42 (-5). Melissa Leo, Prisoners
43 (+11). Gwyneth Paltrow, Thanks for Sharing
44 (-17). Pauline Burlet, The Past
45 (-19). Penélope Cruz, The Counselor
46 (-31). Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher
47 (-37). Kristin Scott Thomas, Only God Forgives
48 (+5). Helen Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
49 (-1). Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
50 (-7). Reese Witherspoon, Mud

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