Is This the End for Jennifer Lawrence's Silver Lining?

Tonight, Jennifer Lawrence collected either her final award for Silver Linings Playbook, or her second-to-last.  The fact that it was an Independent Spirit Award, and Playbook is backed by TWC is another conversation, another post.  (I think we can all agree that in varying degrees of "independence," what it took to get ISA competitor Beasts of the Southern Wild to production and then on to Sundance and $12.4M was a much different journey than Harvey's crown jewel for awards season.  But, I digress ...)  If Lawrence wins tomorrow, it's pretty clear that Hollywood loves her to the point that they won't want to wait too long until they give her a second Oscar (think Jodie Foster).  If she loses (to Emmanuelle Riva), the assumption is that she'll be around long enough to try a few more times.  But, the point of this post was the black backless Lanvin dress she wore tonight.  With an asymmetrical bottom cut and a bow at the waist, the predominant feature was the art deco choker holding up the geometrically-designed front.  If you look at the dress being worn by the toothpick in the picture next to Lawrence, it's pretty obvious this design is for anorexics only with dried up breasts (the opposite of Lawrence).  Even then, I can't drum up much excitement.  It's designed to create the illusion of "skinny" in the worst possible way.  It just doesn't make any sense.  Perhaps how the front slims down to the waist is what bothers me most, and the way in which the straps help to tighten her front look so chintzy with a strained arbitrariness.  Still, it could be worse.  Don't get me wrong.  She looks hot, especially in those heels.  It looks great from the back.  And, I like that Lawrence takes all these crazy chances.  Look at her smile.  So cute, but she looks kind of over it, like, "if I have to smile one more fucking time ..."  But, with this, as well as The Golden Globes dress, I'm wondering if she's trying every which way to display her tits, but loose.  Makes me yearn for her Baywatch 2010 Oscar getup.

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Examining Tariq Khan's Emmanuelle Riva Best Actress Prediction

Tariq Khan recently wrote a piece on Moviefone theorizing that Emmanuelle Riva may win the Best Actress Oscar.  It's an interesting possibility.  Riva delivered possibly the most riveting performance of the five nominees and it's rare for the AMPAS to actually choose the turn with the most depth and nuance, particularly when that actress is not in her more youthful years.  And what a story it would be if Riva, who will turn 86 on Oscar night, takes to the stage to collect a golden statue, especially considering she would be one of the most obscure wins of recent memory (since her fellow Frenchwoman Marion Cotillard), as well as the fact that she collected limited precursor nominations/wins and forewent an aggressive campaign.

Khan is correct in that Riva had the most challenging role.  She plays a physically disabled woman who slowly watches her independence and functionality permanently slip between her fingers.  He rightly singles out her compelling work.  He then goes on to correctly point out why this year's race has been so unpredictable: "Support is soft for the category's perceived frontrunners."  The 22-year old rising star Jennifer Lawrence, while the female lead, is not the lead of Silver Linings Playbook.  She has her own story, but the movie itself revolves around Bradley Cooper's Pat Jr.  While this doesn't diminish Lawrence's performance, the movie is partly a comedy, often light-hearted in tone (despite some rather dark edges), which is always a tough sell to The Academy.  Her spunky Tiffany is delightful, but, in more competitive years, wouldn't have a prayer at a win, especially if she was up against her nominated performance two years ago in Winter's Bone.

The also second-nominated, slightly older Julliard-trained Jessica Chastain has the benefit of playing a hero, but one who represses her emotions with little tension to spare.  While she is enjoyable to watch, one could argue that her performance doesn't run deep, and/or the character isn't written to allow a more nuanced turn.  Chastain has gone on and on in interviews about how she had to fight against her natural instincts to emote to relay the challenge she confronted to portray her Maya, that may or may not be in reaction to criticism of her nominated role.  Immediate comparisons to Jodie Foster's Clarice Starling come to mind, the major difference is that The Silence of the Lambs is a campy serio-thriller with more opportunities for the actress to allow her to reveal some of the cracks in her veneer.  Zero Dark Thirty is a sobering procedural without any hammy characters like Hannibal Lector and Buffalo Bill to play against.  The torture controversy regarding Zero definitely hurt when the critics sold it down the river and Oscar nominations finally rolled around, leaving out director Bigelow, as well as other categories it might have popped up in.  It remains to be seen if The AMPAS will have buyer's remorse and attempt a mea culpa come Oscar night by rewarding Chastain, screenwriter Mark Boal, or any of the other categories it's nominated for.

Both Silver and Zero are box-office successes nominated for Best Picture and both find themselves working overtime to make a case for their leading lady and pin their hopes on this category.  Khan purports that both Lawrence and Chastain have better work ahead of them.  I agree.  But, I don't appreciate him diminishing Lawrence's performance as being something that could have been replicated by "a number of other actresses."  I do believe she's something special and her work is unfortunately underestimated by the Oscar prognosticator.  While one might argue it's all surface and rudimentary, there's a movie star quality where you can't just add water and stir.  Just like Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman ... who went on to lose in 1990.

Khan proceeds to postulate that Riva's "age isn't an issue."  He cites instances in which many assert youth and/or "hotness" won, but, more importantly, the victories were more attributable to the nature of the work (i.e. the baitier role always wins).  However, the claim isn't full proof.  He neglects Julia Roberts winning over Ellen Burstyn (as well as Laura Linney), Hilary Swank over Imelda Staunton (who gave possibly the performance of the decade in Vera Drake).  The practically unknown Marion Cotillard beat the much older Julie Christie, Kate Winslet prevailed over Melissa Leo, etc.  There is no arguing that Gabourey Sidibe had the most complicated role the year she was nominated for Precious, yet the glammed up Sandra Bullock took home Oscar.  Nicole Kidman gave a lovely and painful turn in Rabbit Hole but lost to the much younger Natalie Portman.  Helen Mirren, who had won for playing up the dowdy with The Queen, has been singled out repeatedly for being a "babe" for her a woman of her "age."  He opens a pandora's box and throws in the unfortunate win of Jessica Tandy over Michelle Pfeiffer and quickly moves on not addressing The Academy's fear of an extremely beautiful woman portraying a sexually confident female who isn't a victim (not to forget the Tandy starred in the eventual Best Picture winner which made over $100M ... in 1989).

But, he leaves out other nuances.  There is also the history of SAG/Golden Globes in the context of the Best Actress Oscar.  You have to go all the way back to the 1980s to find an actress who captured neither (SAG didn't begin individual acting awards until 1994), yet still managed to win Oscar.  In fact, they were both old bitties Katharine Hepburn and Geraldine Page. They were each up against young and fresh competition.  Hepburn was pitted against Susan Sarandon and Marsha Mason (on her fourth and final nomination without a win), who had both been acting prominently in films for over a decade, as well as recent Oscar winners Diane Keaton and and Meryl Streep.  She was also Katharine-fucking-Hepburn, who had three Oscars, but hadn't won for over ten years, and this may have been the final opportunity to honor the world's most revered actress (it was).  And Geraldine Page was on her eighth Oscar nomination, not having ever won, up against three previous winners, with her main competition being Whoopi Goldberg, who had just made her film debut.  Riva's most famous role was from over a half-century ago (Hiroshima, mon amour).  If she wins, being French, her and her film having little commercial viability, being in her mid-80s, not campaigning, and starring in a film that is still building an audience, it will be quite a feet and worth applauding the AMPAS for stepping outside of their "comfort zone."

Adding BAFTA post-2002 (when the ceremony was moved up before the Oscars) only supports this data.  In the following graph, actresses highlighted in yellow are the Best Actress Oscar winners from their respective years:

But, it should also be noted that Riva was not nominated for a Golden Globe or SAG and BAFTA's will be decided on the 10th of February.

One of Khan's final points concerns the AMPAS's francophilia, which I found to be his most intriguing.  Not only is Riva celebrating her birthday on Oscar night, last year's Best Actor winner Jean Dujardin (who was obscure himself pre-The Artist) is handing out the award.  And, the AMPAS are arguably getting more international with their winners (look at all four winning actors from 2007).  Khan then blows his own horn about his track record.  Does he have me nervous about my Jennifer Lawrence prediction?  Of course.  Especially if she wins BAFTA.  Along with Lawrence and Chastain, they are the only ones nominated for both awards.  And BAFTA has gotten this category right more than wrong in recent times regarding Oscar predictions, with one of the times it went its own way being Imelda Staunton, of all people.  Guess it's back to the drawing board if Riva takes it.  Right now at Gold Derby, along with Khan, Guy Lodge, Anne Thompson, and Peter Travers are all predicting Riva.  Watch the rest (and perhaps me) do an about face if BAFTA changes the game right before the final stretch.  And, if she wins both, she makes history.  Right now, I'll stick with Lawrence.

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Best Actress 2013: Jennifer Lawrence, Serena

Christopher Kyle (K-19: The Widowmaker, Alexander) adapted Ron Rash's 2008 novel Serena, set in the North Carolina timber industry during the Depression Era.  Angelina Jolie and Darren Aronofsky were attached, before Susanne Bier and Jennifer Lawrence took over.  The Silver Linings Playbook star loved working with her leading man so much, she asked Bradley Cooper to reteam with her on this new venture.  Their age difference makes them such a weird pairing, but what are you going to do?  He played a business baron and her role is described as a wife with "Lady MacBeth" type tendencies.  It sounds like a great role for Lawrence, but my skeptical side starts to creep out too.  Not sure why.  This could be Twin Peaks First Season Good, or it could be Snow Falling on Cedars.  (I don't know why I selected those two films as comparative examples; Serena isn't set in the PNW)  The Dannish Bier is known for her Oscar-winning In a Better World, as well as directing more mainstream American stars in films like Things We Lost in the Fire and the remake of her own film Brothers, the latter of which was quite good.  She's a pretty prolific director and used much of her own team for Serena including cinematographer Morten Soborg and editor Pernille Bech Christensen.  Producers on the film have worked on everything from Unknown, to Killing Them Softly to Good Night, and Good Luck., to We Own the Night, and The Road.  Rhys Ifans, Toby Jones, and Sean Harris (the ginger from Prometheus who goes apeshit) are also in the cast.  Serena filmed a year ago in the Czech Republic, including Barrandov Studios in Prague.  It will release sometime this year.

Lawrence is at a very interesting point in her career.  We don't know if she is going to win Oscar (money is on her, though).  At this point, it mostly depends on whether the AMPAS think she's too young or not, and if Harvey Weinstein can convince enough voters that she has arrived and is ready.  Did her recent SNL monologue hurt her chances?  Did she really seem to care?  No!  And, that's what I love about her.  SHE DOESN'T CARE.  She could get kicked out of Hollywood, and she would probably figure out something else to do.  If she loses, she came awfully close her second time around at only age 22.  She has shown remarkable range, but there is still an inkling of "can she do more?"  Winter's Bone showed that she had raw talent.  The Hunger Games proved she could carry a huge franchise to major financial success.  Playbook revealed a versatility.  She gives great, off-the-cuff, down-to-earth interviews.  She just doesn't care what anyone thinks.  Now, that could be mostly due to age and where she's from, or it could also be something indeed genuine.  Only time will tell.  But, if there's more in her (which I think there is) and she demonstrates decent taste in choosing scripts, she'll be given many more chances to win.  With three more Hunger Games and who knows how many X-Men, this girl is set through her twenties.  Couldn't have happened to a cooler chick.

Check out more Best Actress 2013 contenders

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Sheer Lining Playbook

So, Jennifer Lawrence made another good speech, as well as a helluva an entrance.  While it's not clear from the limited footage, but when costar Robert De Niro (they certainly don't make these award shows very unpredictable, do they?) called her name, she got extremely and genuinely excited.  She hugged her parents, embraced her leading man Bradley Cooper, and then hugged her parents again, along with her director David O. Russell.  The best part, however, is when the cameras froze and went off her (thanks five-second delay?) and she presumably took a tumble--judging from some of the reactions--no thanks to wearing a two-piece ball gown while negotiating a maze full of chairs.  Now, do I point this out in derision?  No.  Not at all.  It makes me love her even more.  And, if my threshold for the amour I feel for the girl couldn't even grow beyond that, she pulls up her dress while scaling the steps to reveal that her navy blue dress was actually a cocktail number attached to a possible last minute elongated skirt-train addition and provided built-in ventilation for being under those hot lights.  Or, some are calling the Christian Dior design, excuse me, "a tiered gown."  Genius. As long as Lawrence looks hot and remains cool, I'm all for it.

And, then she makes her speech, which was twenty times better than Anne's version of scaling it back. She tells a cute story about getting her SAG card, how it put her in present company, and then acknowledging that "some of you even voted for me."  She thanks her director and his personal  motivations behind making the film, her leading man, and Harvey "rascal" Weinstein (she eloquently references him "nourishing the filmmakers who nourished" her).  She closes it out with telling her family how much she loves them.  Anne could only a dream a dream of making such a speech, if she's lucky.

Lawrence (aka the Baywatch Babe in Blue) wins.  Harvey wins.  Tom Hooper and everyone else watching her from behind wins.  Christian Dior, who is coming out this Spring with a line of ventilated underwear, wins.  We all win.  And that's the silver lining.

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Golden Globe Rundown: Best Actresses

Jessica Chastain gets her game face on

After detailing the Supporting Actress Race, let us briefly examine the Best Actress Drama and Comedy/Musical.  As expected, Jessica Chastain is biting at Jennifer Lawrence's heals.  SAG will be VERY interesting.  Will they go comedy or drama?  For the Globes, Chastain's competition was Marion Cotillard, Helen Mirren, Naomi Watts, and Rachel Weisz.  As it turns out, her only real threat was Watts, as none of the other ladies made their way into the Oscar race.  As well, some suggest that Watts might be dark horse.  Which brings me to Chastain's speech.

Best Dressed out of
the nominees

First, "middle-aged" George Clooney got a little dig into Ben Affleck for forgetting to thank the Argo producers when his name was called for director, before proceeding to announce her name.  She hugs and acknowledges a few people including Megan Ellison and director Kathryn Bigelow (and her grandmother?  Amy Pascal?).  When she gets up to the stage, she thanks the HFPA and immediately expresses gratitude for being acknowledged "for YEARS" of toiling through the Hollywood maze.  What was going on through Naomi Watts' mind when Chastain said that?  She can relate, right?  Her 90s were Chastain's 00s.  Except, Watts has never made it up to the podium at the Golden Globes, SAG, or Oscar.  Mulholland Dr. was thirteen years ago, and she didn't receive a nomination by any of those institutions for the David Lynch film.  That was her breakout role (compare to Chastain's The Help).  The follow-through was 21 Grams (Chastain's Zero Dark Thirty).  While Chastain is up against Harvey Weinstein, Watts had to contend with Charlize Theron's performance of the decade.  Since, Watts has been plugging away, winning commercial-friendly, yet off-kilter remakes and sequels, while balancing her resume with more baity fare.  She has been doing what she does well and she doesn't fill her face up with chemicals.  She has also been waiting "for YEARS" to be validated.  Is this too much, too soon for Chastain?  Or does that get extended more to the younger Lawrence?  Watts isn't breaking a sweat, though.  Princess Diana, Marilyn Monroe, Gertrude Bell, etc.  Even with inevitable comparisons to Michelle Williams' Monroe and Australian Nicole Kidman's Princess Monaco, she is just getting started and is playing for keeps.  If Susan Sarandon did it at almost fifty, so will she.  She will give the AMPAS many chances to reconsider, and the inundation, like with Sarandon, may pay off.

Chastain thanks her team (and if her stylist is among them, it's time for him/her to move on), the crew, cast, specifically Jason Clarke, Annapurna's Ellison, Sony, Pascal, her grandmother, the screenwriter, and her director.  She compares her character to Bigelow.  "To powerful, fearless women that allow their expert work to stand before them.  You've said that filmmaking for you is not about breaking gender roles.  But, when you make a film that allows your character to disobey the conventions of Hollywood, you've done more for women in cinema [that you] can take credit for."  Bigelow was visibly moved and Chastain had taken the breath right out of her.

I already touched on Lawrence's win.  She was up against Emily Blunt, Judi Dench, and Maggie Smith, who, of course, had no real chance at winning.  However, much was made of her fourth fellow nominee Meryl Streep, after Lawrence made the fun and innocent reference to The First Wives Club.  Because I like to spend my time looking up insignificant facts, I learned that Streep has actually been nominated twenty-seven (!) times for a Golden Globe (two times were for television/cable projects).  While she won eight of those Globes, she lost nineteen times.  So, as Lawrence would rightfully point out, there were shockingly nine opportunities to make that crack before her: Kate Winslet, Sally Hawkins, Natalie Portman, Nicole Kidman, Hilary Swank, Cate Blanchett, Alfre Woodard, Brenda Blethyn (as well as pre-Wives: Sharon Stone, Jessica Lange, Miranda Richardson, Julia Roberts, Jessica Tandy, Jodie Foster, Whoopi Goldberg, Shirley MacLaine, Dyan Cannon) AND Meryl Streep herself.  Yeah, that's right, for 2009, Streep beat herself, having been nominated twice in the Comedy category for Julie & Julia and It's Complicated.  Not that any of the winners would have made the reference, as most of them are not Americans, and First Wives is a very American film.  As far as the First Wives themselves are concerned, Streep actually beat Diane Keaton twice at the GG's, but was never nominated opposite Goldie Hawn, Bette Midler, or Stockard Channing, for that matter.  

As far as the fashion and styling of the nominees (Streep had The Flu; Maggie Smith and Judi Dench were also absent), there was a lot left to be desired.  Best in show was Helen Mirren looking classy wearing black Badgley Mischka with gold brocade.  Simple and elegant, she looked marvelous.  Jessica Chastain played it safe, so she didn't look bad, just predictable.  The sky blue shows off her eyes and hair, but then oddly she creases back the sides.  She certainly could look worse, but I'd like to see something more daring and sexy on her.  Emily Blunt was also boring, and almost repeated her outfit from last year.  I hated Jennifer Lawrence's dress the night of the globes, but, now, not as much.  It's certainly low cut and looks weird, but not terrible.  Still, she went with a safe, solid color from the Martha Stewart Jr collection like most everyone else.  Marion Cotillard looked beautiful in asymmetrical Christian Dior, but the dress length and shoes bother a little.  I give kudos to Naomi Watts for her hair and makeup.  Her face is smashing.  And the Zac Posen burgundy open-backed dress is dramatic, but I'm not sure if it works for her (or her skin tone).  The color is too deep and she is too milky/blonde.  Rachel Weisz probably has the best hair and makeup, but that black sheer Louis Vuitton is a hot mess.  Cute on top, but then what is going on around her legs.  So wrong.  Daniel Craig should have just gotten on all fours and tore off that gam-veil with his mouth.  That would have been hot and necessary.

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Jennifer Lawrence: That's Not My Butt!

When Jennifer Lawrence went up on the Golden Globe stage to collect her Best Actress award, I wasn't too impressed.  I was already reeling from seeing her in that dress on the red carpet.  I can't say I hated it, but I disliked the way it pressed down her boobs.  This was her first major awards red carpet since the AMPAS 2011, no?  Remember that Baywatch dress?  Some criticized her because it was too va-va-va-voom and not classy enough.  And, oh, yeah, her tits looked amazing.  Did she go in reverse for the Globes?  From the front and back, it looks better than the profile.  Yet, why am I growing to like it, the more I look at it.  Whatever the case, she was nervous when she got up to give her speech, but kept it pretty professional.  And, unlike Lena Dunham and Anne Hathaway, both of whom are older than her by at least a couple of years, her words didn't reek of a desperate need to be validated.  For such a rocket ride to success, she's certainly handling herself  well.  She even opened with a joke from The First Wives Club, "What does it say?  I beat Meryl."  Can I just say that I love that she can make references to Val Kilmer's weight gain, as well as quote films that came out when she was six.

I'm an asshat, so I didn't get the joke, because, I ditched ever seeing the film.  (Perhaps, now I should.)  Anyway, I thought nothing of it at the time, other than she needed to step up her game.  Upon second viewing, it's coming across as more of a decent speech (like her dress is starting to) as far as the Globes are concerned.  But, she caught some serious flack, particular from those who also weren't in on the joke and overreacted.

So, while J.Law may have already been scheduled on Letterman, this last Tuesday (Silver Linings is expanding this weekend and she has SNL coming up), she nipped that "controversy" in the bud (5:30).  As well, she continues to show what a pro she is at the talk-show circuit.  And, so down to earth.  At least, that's what she's got us thinking.  Look at her.  She handles Dave like Julia Roberts.  Ordering him to role the clip and sassing him for keeping up a picture of her in a bikini insisting has been photoshopped with a butt that's not her's.  Hmmn.  Julia Roberts?  Maybe this is all an act?  Or will become one?

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Lawrence Will Play the SNL Card

One thing I never understood is why more movie stars don't take advantage of the SNL venue to drum up more support for their films.  It's a long-running institution, which allows actors to show off their goods and versatility.  But, then, for those who are more limited in range and/or nervous, live-action comedy and improv might just be too tall of an order.  And, as we've witnessed time and again, if the writing isn't up to snuff, it doesn't matter who you are, the prospects of landing in a turkey episode are pretty high.  I got truly excited when I heard Jennifer Lawrence will be hosting the show in a couple weeks.  As Winter's Bone and Silver Linings Playbook has shown us, she can play more than one type, and with The Hunger Games, she has the presence to lead a large enterprise.  Did you know that she will actually be one of the few actresses to throw her hat into the late night variety show ring once nominations are announced, but before ballots are turned in?  Yes, it's an obscure bit of information that you're hearing about because of the questionable use of my free time.

Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron, and Reese Witherspoon hosted years before they took a more serious position on getting an Oscar.  Even Kim Basinger used her then 30 Rock-familiar husband to cohost way before L.A. Confidential ever existed.  Some basked in the glow of a recent Oscar win: Angelica Huston (Prizzi's Honor), and Geena Davis (The Accidental Tourist).  Others celebrated post-season just having had gotten nominated: Maureen Stapleton (Interiors), Ellen Page (Juno), and Gabourey Sidibe (Precious).  Some finally went on some time after their Oscar win, like Halle Berry, when she headlined Gothika, as well as Helen Mirren (Arthur), Marisa Tomei (Only You), and Sally Field (Mrs. Doubtfire).

You've had ladies with films that opened early in the year who later joined the awards circuit conversation: Shelley Duvall (3 Women, for one of her two stints), Jill Clayburgh (An Unmarried Woman, in her second appearance), Sharon Stone (Basic Instinct), and Renée Zellweger (Bridget Jones's Diary).  You've had women with summer releases who hosted in the Fall just as awards season was getting ready: Lily Tomlin (Nashville, her second of there times), Sigourney Weaver (Aliens, in her first of two times), Andie MacDowell (sex, lies and videotape), Linda Hamilton (Terminator 2), Nia Vardalos  (My Big Fat Greek Wedding), and Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids).

Some of the actresses took the SNL stage in the Fall after a recent release for a little post-opening push: Jodie Foster (Taxi Driver), Ellen Burstyn (Resurrection), Kathleen Turner (Romancing the Stone in her first of two appearances), Joan Allen (Pleasantville), Kate Hudson (Almost Famous), and Annette Bening (Running with Scissors).  A few films had their actresses host the show a week or a few before they opened late in the year: Bernadette Peters (Pennies From Heaven), Melanie Griffith (Working Girl), Helen Hunt (As Good As It Gets, her second time), and Kate Winslet (Finding Neverland, having had Eternal Sunshine earlier in the year).

You had some ladies host a week or two before the ceremony, way after nomination ballots were sent out and possibly already turned in: Sissy Spacek (Carrie), Miranda Richardson (up for Damage, she was riding high off The Crying Game and had Enchanted April also out earlier the previous year), Julianne Moore (Boogie Nights), Queen Latifah (Chicago, in her first of two), Salma Hayek (Frida), and Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby).

Anne Hathaway has the distinction of being the most Oscar-ish type actress to host three stints tied to an awards bid each time.  Hathaway's first time was after Rachel Getting Married just opened.  She ended up getting nominated, but her second try with Love and Other Drugs wasn't as successful.  As the opening monologue indicated for her third trip to the SNL stage a few weeks ago, it was all about Les Misérables.  Gwyneth Paltrow tried to drum up support for awards-bid Country Strong most recently, but her second hosting gig was about Shallow Hal's box-office.

As you can tell, if you're familiar with the outcome of each actress in regards to the movie they're pushing, Oscar and SNL don't always mix, even when it comes to just nominations.  But, to do it in the thick of the season, takes some chutzpah, no?  Demonstrating a willingness to fall flat on your face during a 90-minute live televised appearance isn't a cake-walk.  The only women to host after nominations were announced, but probably before most ballots were turned in were Glenn Close (Dangerous Liaisons, in her first of two appearances) and Gwyneth Paltrow (Shakespeare in Love).  Paltrow hosted three days before the nominations were announced, but already tabulated.  Close hosted right after.  Of course, like with Lawrence, these were all tied to platform release strategies for their movies.  Hunt, Paltrow, and Swank are the only ones to come out winners.  We know Hathaway will.  Will Lawrence?  Will Chastain have time to take off from appearing on stage as The Heiress to throw her hat into the SNL ring?  We'll have to wait and see.  But, for now, I can't wait to see Lawrence kill it.

poll by twiigs.com

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Anne Dreamed She Won an Oscar (for Lead)

Jennifer Lawrence has been in the industry for
less years than Anne Hathaway has on her in age and it is
Lawrence who is the odds-on favorite to win Best Actress and
Hathaway for Supporting Actress

I get chills watching the Les Misérables trailers. Do you?  The marketing team is truly superb. I don't know if this is old, or they've tinkered with it--the young Cosette blends into the musical's logo, which I thought was a recently added gimmick.  At any rate, Anne Hathaway kills it every time.  Haters are gonna hate, but this ho is taking the golden man home in February. Isn't that obvious at this point? I'm sure Amy Adams will put up a fight, but, bitch please, you can't stop the inevitable. However, I can't say that I'm *entirely* convinced she will be marketed as supporting. There is still like 2% doubt.  She has it in the bag in the "lesser" category, but what if we're looking at a truly weak leading field? I *know* her character is not lead and is missing from half the story, but ... never say never, right? I mean, come on! The way they've sold this movie so far is that it was made to crown Hathaway Hollywood's latest princess (or queen). I know, I know, I'm embarrassing myself. I need to let it go. I'm sure if I knew the musical, we wouldn't even be having this conversation (or monologue). It's just such a crazy year in the Best Actress race, I believe anything could happen. I'm almost convinced a BP nod is a done deal, ALMOST.  But, what if this film turns out to be as amazing as the trailers we've been barraged with?  But, I'll shut up about that (for now).  If you asked me who do I think, at this moment, the eventual nominees will be, I would say Silver Linings' Jennifer Lawrence is a given (her onscreen sibling casting opposite Julia Stiles is brilliant, no?).  Quevenzhané Wallis is also up there.  My views are Marion Cotillard's chances are thawing.  Keira Knightley is still holding on in fourth position.  I'd like to leave one slot for "surprise nominee/winner," but I'll go with Emmanuelle Riva, even if that means two French-speaking nominated performances.  There, that's my five (until probably tomorrow), though I don't really see Riva happening.  And the other four to support Anne during her coronation this 2013, along with Adams, will be Helen Hunt and two British ladies (as an homage to Hunt's 1997 win).  Let's say Maggie Smith and Hathaway's costar Samantha Barks.  Still, having Lawrence as the odds on favorite for lead and Hathaway's Oscar-grab for supporting is like if 1987 and 2008 crashed and the AMPAS told Kate Winslet's The Reader that she has to campaign for supporting while Cher took home the gold for Moonstruck.  Is it not?  Just a teensy little?  Okay, I'm done.

[9/26 UPDATE: Rope of Silicon just helped put the final nail in my obstinate coffin.  They also reminded me that Smashed was actually coming out this year, and yes, Mary Winstead is a player.  So perhaps bye-bye Riva.  I hadn't considered Helen Mirren and not sure if I will, though.]

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