Best Actress (Lead/Supporting) Oscar 2013 - September Predictions

The Best Actress race is about to get a huge shakeup with the onset of the Venice Film Festival, where Gravity will have its world debut today.  Star Sandra Bullock pretty much is the movie, and if critics fall in love with it, and the box-office follows suit, it will be hard to imagine the race without her.  Ironic, considering that a year ago, I couldn't fathom Bullock ever fitting into an Oscar race again (one and done, I thought).  Kind of foolish if you consider that four years ago, most people including myself never thought she would figure into an Oscar race period, but, then, she blindsided us all.  Now, here we are.  Since the last post, Blue Jasmine has opened and Cate Blanchett, whose role was shrouded in mystery just a few months ago, has become the frontrunner for the lead race, especially in the context of the supposed rumor that her main competition Meryl Streep may go supporting for August: Osage County (if Harvey Weinstein can pull a win for Oprah, I doubt it).  If anything, it has bolstered the idea of Julia Roberts landing a lead nod as an also-ran (she could have won the supporting category, but, then, her role was never supporting to begin with and it seems so silly to have had doubts in the first place).  Amy Adams' placement is still not quite certain, yet, she has the distinction of being the only strong contender at this point who has never won an Oscar (and, further, Blanchett and Judi Dench stand out because they've won supporting and not lead).

Nicole Kidman is looking weaker as each month presses on.  No trailer, no festival announcements as of yet, and she appears to be the only major candidate not appearing in a BP-contender.  (Another Harvey girl Dench might be added to that short list.)  In this respect, Streep, Roberts, Adams, Bullock, and Emma Thompson seem the strongest.  Blanchett's Jasmine could also make a run for Best Picture.  I'd pin Adèle Exarchopoulos, the only serious newcomer we can see on the horizon thus far, as a dark horse.

Lead Actress
1 (+3). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine 
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (-1). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (supporting?)
IC
3 (+9). Amy Adams, American Hustle (supporting?)
TFE, ROS
4 (+4). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County 
ROS
5 (-3). Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco

6 (+11). Sandra Bullock, Gravity
TFE, Feinberg, IC
7 (-1). Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
8 (-1). Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color
9 (-6). Judi Dench, Philomena 
TFE, Feinberg, IC
10 (+25). Mia Wasikowska, Tracks

11. (+5). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers; 2014?
12 (+6). Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Feinberg, ROS
13 (+2). Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
14 (-9). Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man
15 (-4). Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse
16 (-7). Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
17 (New). Brie Larson, Short Term 12
18 (New). Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
19 (+5). Bérénice Bejo, The Past
20 (+14). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (supporting?)

21 (+15). Jessica Chastain, Miss Julie (perhaps a late 2013 surprise)
22 (+15). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot (supporting?)
23 (+15). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (supporting?)
24 (-14). Naomi Watts, Diana
25 (-11). Kirsten Dunst, The Two Faces of January
26 (-5). Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
27 (-14). Dakota Fanning, Effie Gray
28 (-3). Rebecca Hall, A Promise 
29 (+13). Emmanuelle Seigner, Venus in Fur
30 (+13). Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
31 (+14). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His
32 (+14). Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall
33 (+15). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker

Supporting Actress
While the lead race is about "Who to take out?" the supporting actress category seems like, "Who to put in?"  Oprah Winfrey really is only the safe bet at this point for a nod.  The question is: will The Academy want to award her a competitive Oscar?  The only reference that comes to mind is Cher, but, at least when Moonstruck came out, while it was only the pop star's sixth proper movie, she had been in the biz fronting as an actress for a good five years, so her sparse film acting resume didn't seem so spread out like The Big O's.  But, Winfrey has been nominated before like Cher was before she won, and all of her three films have a "respectability" factor.  But, I get the naysayers who suggest that she might be too big for The Academy.  If that's the case, a desperate Weinstein could end up placing Streep in supporting.  But, I'm not going to bet on it.  I probably won't even consider her until it becomes official or it's late December, which ever comes first.

As far as other nominees, Spencer as an actress may now be the surest nomination for Fruitvale Station, though I could see her dropping out if Weinstein inexplicable decides to bag on the movie.  Sally Hawkins, who came close to an acting nod in 2008, is a definite contender as a coattail nominee to the likely Best Actress winner Blanchett, but by no means a sure-thing.  I still can't shake the idea of August disappointing in the nomination department for actors.  It's hard to believe it may only get two.  Part of my vision right now if things go exceptionally well for the film is two in each actress category.
As far as those supporting actress hopefuls who aren't backed by Weinstein, besides Hawkins, we have Cameron Diaz.  She's been passed over by the AMPAS a couple of times over a decade ago.  She doesn't have a sweetheart factor like Bullock or Roberts, but she is one of the few actresses who can open a movie and she did so recently on her name alone with Bad Teacher, seventeen years after she made her film debut in The Mask with Jim Carrey.  I suspect she's going to knock people's socks off in The Counselor.  There's a blend of humor and intrigue that is probably going to have people talking, but the type of role itself is one that doesn't get acknowledged by The Academy often enough.  So, Diaz has some quite polarizing elements that are going to work for and against her.  But, if she's not going to be making a run for the crown, one might surmise that she has no chance of getting in, in the first place.  But, I'm probably just deluding myself on even entertaining that Diaz has a chance to begin with.

I'm probably underestimating the "afterglow" effect as far as recent winner Jennifer Lawrence's chances go.  It just seems like too much, too soon, but what do I know?  It's not like she's Meryl Streep (she did beat her at the Golden Globes, though).  June Squibb may have people talking with her performance, but it would be kind of odd for her to get in and not her movie's main star Bruce Dern for Best Actor (he definitely has a shot, though).  As far as trying to fill out the top five, you can do much worse than go with someone from what you think will be a likely Best Picture contender.

1 (+7). Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (--). Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
TFE, IC
3 (+4). Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
4 (-1). Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
ROS, IC
5 (+21). Lupito Nyong'O, Twelve Years a Slave
Feinberg, ROS, IC

6 (-5). Amy Adams, American Hustle (lead?)
7 (New). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (lead?)
TFE, Feinberg, ROS
8 (-2). June Squibb, Nebraska
IC
9 (-5). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor 
TFE
10 (+3). Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
TFE, Feinberg

11 (+10). Julianne Nicholson, August: Osage County
12 (+5). Annie Rose Buckley, Saving Mr. Banks
13 (-3). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (lead?)
Feinberg
14 (-9). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men
15 (New).  Rachel Griffiths, Saving Mr. Banks
16 (+4). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (lead?)
17 (+17). Helen Bonham Carter, The Young and Prodigious Spivet
18 (+23). Amy Adams, Her
19 (+5). Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
20 (-11). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (lead?)

21 (New). Léa Seydoux, Blue Is the Warmest Color
22 (+7). Jessica Lange, Thérèse
23 (-11). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
ROS

24 (+8). Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
25 (+5). Viola Davis, Prisoners
26 (-4). Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
27 (+1). Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
28 (-9). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
29 (-13). Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyer's Club
30 (-19). Alison Janney, The Way, Way Back
31 (+8). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
32 (-5). Adepero Udeye, Twelve Years a Slave

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Best Lead / Supporting Actress Oscar 2013 - July Predictions

Well, this has been a truly crazy year for the Best Actress race (and it hasn't really gotten underway, yet).  Last year, there were seemingly so few options.  This year, there's a decent amount, but, oddly, they're all mostly former winners, whether in the lead or supporting race.  And, as history has dictated, there are so many that can fit in, especially leads.  But rules are meant to be broken, right?  Still, Meryl Streep is a lock.  She has been since she was cast.  The question is: how will her costar Julia Roberts be campaigned.  She has gotten strong early word in the less showy role, and has the greatest arc.  Will/can she be campaigned as supporting?  Thanks to a few others, I'm having my doubts again.  But, if she's campaigned as lead, I just don't see her getting in.  Nicole Kidman probably figured The Academy wouldn't nominate her unless she classed it up.  It's just hard for me to imagine that after going through all the trouble of getting Grace of Monaco off the ground, she's going to fall short.  She wants this.  She has all of her ducks in a row.  I guess the only question is if her guy Harvey Weinstein has sabotaged her chances with too many candidates under his guide.  He already had a full plate, yet he still laid down $6.5M for Philomena, a huge vote of confidence if there was one, which speaks to Judi Dench's chances.  Their collaborations have resulted in five nominations and one win.  Can he pull a hat-trick?  He has done it before.  But that still leaves the non-Weinstein-backed former winners like Cate Blanchett, whose film opens in less than a month, and Emma Thompson, who is viewed by some as unambitious when it comes to campaigning.

It's quite possible that every nominee in the category this year already has an Oscar or two or three under her belt.  I'm still holding out that we'll have one who doesn't, perhaps never even having reached the nomination level.  But, then, personal bias gets in the way.  Obviously, I would love to see Rachel McAdams or Elizabeth Olsen get nominated, especially for stellar work.  But, it's wishful thinking in a vacuum with nothing to replace it.

Lead Actress
1 (+1). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
2 (-1). Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
3 (+26). Judi Dench, Philomena 
4 (+3). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine 
5 (+9). Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man

6 (-2). Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
7 (New). Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color
8 (-2). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (supporting?)
9 (+6). Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
10 (-7). Naomi Watts, Diana

11 (-3). Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse
12 (New). Amy Adams, American Hustle (supporting?)
13 (+22). Dakota Fanning, Effie
14 (New). Kirsten Dunst, The Two Faces of January
15 (-2). Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
16. (-5). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers; 2014?
17 (+1). Sandra Bullock, Gravity
18 (-9). Kate Winslet, Labor Day
19 (+12). Jessica Brown Findlay, Winter's Tale
20 (-15). Zoe Saldana, Nina

21 (-4). Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
22 (+3). Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby
23 (+9). Annette Bening, The Face of Love
24 (New). Bérénice Bejo, The Past
25 (-1). Rebecca Hall, A Promise 
26 (+14). Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
27 (-11). Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
28 (-7). Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
29 (-10). Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
30 (-8). Rooney Mara, Ain't Them Bodies Saints

31 (+7). Robin Weigert, Concussion
32 (-12). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
33 (+3). Julianne Hough, Paradise
34 (-11). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (supporting?)
35 (+6). Mia Wasikowska, Tracks
36 (New). Jessica Chastain, Miss Julie (perhaps a late 2013 surprise)
37 (+7). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot (supporting?)
38 (-10). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (supporting?)
39 (-27). Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace
40 (-1). Kristen Wiig, Girl Most Likely (formerly Imogene)

41 (+1). Lily Rabe, The First (2014?)
42 (-5). Emmanuelle Seigner, Venus in Fur
43 (-10). Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
44 (-10). Michelle Pfeiffer, The Family (supporting?)
45 (-2). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His
46 (-1). Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall

46 (--). Robin Wright, Adore
47 (--). Mia Wasikowska, Madame Bovary
48 (--). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
49 (+6). Scarlett Johansson, Under the Skin
50 (+1). Lake Bell, In a World ...
51 (+2). Hilary Swank, You're Not You
53 (+1). Keri Russell, Austenland 

The supporting race is filled with more polarizing options currently.  There are some indicators that Cameron Diaz could finally experience her big Oscar break.  She's directed by Ridley Scott who isn't immune from getting some of his actors nominations.  And, while he doesn't have any major heat coming off from any of his most recent movies, he does have a sporadicly consistent history with the AMPAS over the last three decades.  The role, primarily is a doozy.  It plays to Diaz' strengths on a couple of levels, so, to me, there is a high probability that she will deliver the goods.  The bigger question is the part, which is hard to discuss without getting into spoilery territory.  But, it's safe to say it's a very sexually confident role, which doesn't win favor very often with The Academy.  And, the archetype she plays also doesn't have a very good track record.  Couple that with Diaz' lack of nomination history, and her case begins to fall apart.  However, I find personal bias clouding my judgment, and it's hard to discern just how genuine her probabilities are.  I find myself impressing upon her long record of commercial viability.  She's one of the few female Hollywood stars that have an established drawing power, as well as having opened a movie on her own (Bad Teacher) to high returns. This may mean very little ultimately to the awards circuit, as she's not Julia Roberts, Reese Witherspoon, or Sandra Bullock, but I just find her underrated and would love to see her get a little recognition.  But, hey, if The Globes wouldn't even recognize her for a slam-dunk comedic performance in Teacher (they went with Jodie Foster and Kate Winslet in the little seen, and unimpressive Carnage; and it's not like they haven't gone for Roberts, Witherspoon, Bullock, or Meg Ryan in lesser films in the past), than perhaps the plume really is off her rose.

Another polarizing option is Oprah Winfrey.  She was welcomed by the AMPAS in the much-nominated The Color Purple (1985) before she became an international media mogul.  When she gave the world "her baby" in Jonathan Demme's Beloved in 1998, audiences, critics, and The Academy rejected it.  Now, the director of Precious Lee Daniels is back with the very baity The Butler.  It looks like a steaming pile of something else (I guaranteed it wouldn't be a player; now, I may have to eat crow), but, The Help looked like a Lifetime movie in its initial trailer and it did very well for itself.  On one hand, the stunt casting of several generations of presidents and first ladies gives one pause, but, then you have Harvey Weinstein trying to recreate The Help's success with an obvious release date strategy exactly two years later to the weekend for a film with black leads, and servant relationships to their employer.  Winfrey, however, has already recently received an honorary Oscar.  And, unlike Cher, for instance, the media personality hasn't been building up industry good-will towards a possible win.  I don't know.  I'd bet on Diaz before Winfrey, because I'm stubborn.

The safest choice, held by many is four-times-nominated Amy Adams, because director David O. Russell has gotten her (as well as many others) a very recent nod.  Some seem to believe she could go lead, though I haven't heard one convincing argument that isn't based on some fantasy scenario.  If they threw the original script out the window and completely beefed up her role, than it's a possibility. But no one has actually come out and said that yet.  A more ambiguous situation is Julia Roberts.  While her Barbara Weston in August is clearly a lead (she will likely have the most screen time, the biggest arc, and has solid word from people who have seen early screenings), she'll be overshadowed by the showier performance from her elder Meryl Streep, who is most definitely getting a lead nod.  Further complicating the situation, is distributor TWC with obligations to both Best Actress frontrunners Philomena and Grace of Monaco.  Not that Roberts ever plays second banana to other women, I can imagine her willing to do it for some reason, though just how Weinstein is going to commit category fraud in order to get it accomplished is beyond me.  She's not a kid or grandpa, which would make it an easier sell.  It would be weird for her to not get flat-out nominated, but, I guess it's what I'm almost saying here.  Though if Dench or Kidman falter, Roberts would quite easily slip in.

The surest choice, at this point, is recent winner Octavia Spencer.  Strong reviews in a Weinstein picture that is very likely to land in many major categories gives her an edge that no one else holds at present.  Blue Jasmine will be coming out soon, and the excitement the trailer has generated for Cate Blanchett has rubbed off a little on Sally Hawkins, who won a Golden Globe five years ago for her superb work in happy-go-lucky, but narrowly missed out on Oscar recognition.

Supporting Actress
1  (+3). Amy Adams, American Hustle
2 (--). Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale
3 (-2). Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
4. (+1). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor 
5 (+6). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men

6 (-3). June Squibb, Nebraska
7 (+14). Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
8 (+6). Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
9. (-3). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (lead?)
10 (-2). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (lead?)

11 (+2). Alison Janney, The Way, Way Back
12 (+8). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
13 (+5). Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
14 (+8). Annette Bening, Girl Most Likely
15 (New). Carice Van Houten, The Fifth Estate
16 (+9). Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyer's Club

17 (+2). Annie Rose Buckley, Saving Mr. Banks
18 (+38). Nicole Kidman, Stoker
19 (-2). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
20 (-8). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (lead?)

21 (+10). Julianne Nicholson, August: Osage County
22 (-13). Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
23 (+6). Robin Wright, A Most Wanted Man
24 (+8). Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
25 (-9). Rosie Perez, The Counselor
26 (+9). Lupito Nyong'O, Twelve Years a Slave
27 (+13). Adepero Udeye, Twelve Years a Slave
28 (+18). Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
29 (+18). Jessica Lange, Thérèse
30 (-2). Viola Davis, Prisoners

31 (+5). Elizabeth Olsen, Oldboy
32 (+6). Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
33 (-3). Isla Fischer, The Great Gatsby
34 (-10). Helen Bonham Carter, The Young and Prodigious Spivet
35 (+7). Mario Bello, Prisoners
36 (-2). Sienna Miller, Foxcatcher
37 (+14). Amy Adams, Lullaby
38 (+3). Juliette Lewis, August: Osage County
39 (-16). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
40 (+5). Abigail Breslin, August: Osage County

41 (+9). Amy Adams, Her
42 (-5). Melissa Leo, Prisoners
43 (+11). Gwyneth Paltrow, Thanks for Sharing
44 (-17). Pauline Burlet, The Past
45 (-19). Penélope Cruz, The Counselor
46 (-31). Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher
47 (-37). Kristin Scott Thomas, Only God Forgives
48 (+5). Helen Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
49 (-1). Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
50 (-7). Reese Witherspoon, Mud

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Best Actress (Lead & Supporting) Oscar 2013 - May Predictions

In a year with so many gimmees, I didn't realize it could be so difficult to sort through.  The Best Actress race really is no clear now than a few months ago.  There are ample clues, unlike 2012; it's just the clues all seem to blend together: biopics, former Best Actress winners, and TWC.  If there is one actress who at least hits all three boxes, it's Nicole Kidman.  But, even then, her role as Grace Kelly doesn't sound baity at all.  And, who knows, perhaps by some inconceivable stroke, Meryl Streep will be campaigned for supporting in August: Osage County.  The reality is that she, along with Julia Roberts' role, are leads.  But, Harvey Weinstein will probably figure out a way to separate them even if it means inventing a third category.  It doesn't help that Emma Thompson is another former Best Actress winner.  Nor does it help that Nina could end up on HBO for all we know.  (No one else seems to be predicting her anyway, so why do I still include her?)  Or, there seems to be more category confusion than ever!  Could Amy Adams possibly enter the lead category?  The script I read certainly was old.  Though, I just can't imagine how they could beef up her role without compromising the integrity of the story.

Lead Actress
1 (+1). Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
2 (-1). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (supporting?)
3 (--). Naomi Watts, Diana
4 (+11). Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks (supporting?)
5 (-1). Zoe Saldana, Nina

6 (--). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (supporting?)
7 (+14). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (supporting?)
8 (+7). Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse
9 (+1). Kate Winslet, Labor Day
10 (New). Bérénice Bejo, The Past

11. (-6). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers; 2014?
12 (-1). Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace
13 (+24). Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
14 (-5). Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man
15 (-7). Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
16 (+3). Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
17 (+1). Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
18 (-1). Sandra Bullock, Gravity
19 (-7). Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
20 (-13). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men (supporting?)

21 (-7). Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
22 (+18). Rooney Mara, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
23 (New). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (supporting?)
24 (+19). Rebecca Hall, A Promise 
25 (+4). Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby
26 (New). Malin Akerman, CBGB
27 (New). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor (supporting?)
28 (New). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (supporting?)
29 (-9). Judi Dench, Philomena (2014?)
30 (New). Oprah Winfrey, The Butler (supporting?)

31 (-6). Jessica Brown Findlay, Winter's Tale
32 (-1). Annette Bening, Look of Love
33 (-1). Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
34 (+18). Michelle Pfeiffer, Malavita
35 (--). Dakota Fanning, Effie
36 (New). Julianne Hough, Paradise
37 (-14). Emmanuelle Seigner, Venus in Fur
38 (-12). Robin Weigert, Concussion
39 (--). Kristen Wiig, Girl Most Likely (formerly Imogene)
40 (-6). Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha

41 (-11). Mia Wasikowska, Tracks
42 (-18). Lily Rabe, The First (2014?)
43 (+1). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His
44 (+1). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot (supporting?)
45 (+6). Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall
46 (-18). Robin Wright, Two Mothers
47 (-14). Mia Wasikowska, Madame Bovary
48 (+1). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
49 (-1). Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
50 (-12). Naomi Watts, Sunlight, Jr.

51 (-5). Lake Bell, In a World ...
52 (-5). Gwyneth Paltrow, 33 días
53 (+1). Hilary Swank, You're Not You
54 (+5). Keri Russell, Austenland 
55 (+3). Scarlett Johansson, Under the Skin
56 (--). Naomi Watts, Two Mothers
57 (-18). Elle Fanning, Ginger & Rosa
58 (-36). Annette Bening, The Great (2014?)
59 (-32). Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion (2014?)
60 (-10). Penélope Cruz, Twice Born

61 (-25). Emma Watson, The Bling Ring
62 (-46). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis (supporting?)
63 (-8). Jessica Biel, Emanuel and the Truth About Fishes
64 (-7). Kaya Scodelario, Emanuel and the Truth About Fishes


Supporting Actress
1 (--). Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
2 (+3). Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale
3. (New). June Squibb, Nebraska
4. (New). Amy Adams, American Hustle
5. (+5). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor (lead?)

6. (--). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (lead?)
7 (--). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (lead?)
8 (+15). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (lead?)
9 (New). Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
10 (-6). Kristin Scott Thomas, Only God Forgives

11 (-3). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men
12 (New). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (lead?)
13 (-4). Alison Janney, The Way, Way Back
14 (+23). Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
15 (New). Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher

16 (New). Rosie Perez, The Counselor
17 (--). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
18 (New). Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
19 (New). Annie Rose Buckley, Saving Mr. Banks
20 (-18). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis

21 (-10). Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
22 (-8). Annette Bening, Girl Most Likely
23 (+3). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
24 (-9). Helen Bonham Carter, The Young and Prodigious Spivet
25 (+5). Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyer's Club
26 (-1). Penélope Cruz, The Counselor
27 (New). Pauline Burlet, The Past
28 (New). Viola Davis, Prisoners
29 (-13). Robin Wright, A Most Wanted Man
30 (-12). Isla Fischer, The Great Gatsby

31 (-2). Julianne Nicholson, August: Osage County
32 (-19). Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
33 (New). Laura Linney, The Fifth Estate
34 (-31). Sienna Miller, Foxcatcher
35 (New). Lupito Nyong'O, Twelve Years a Slave
36 (-15). Elizabeth Olsen, Oldboy
37 (New). Melissa Leo, Prisoners
38 (-16). Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
39 (New). Gemma Arterton, Runner, Runner
40 (New). Adepero Udeye, Twelve Years a Slave

41 (-14). Juliette Lewis, August: Osage County
42 (New). Mario Bello, Prisoners
43 (New). Reese Witherspoon, Mud
44 (-29). Leslie Mann, The Bling Ring
45 (-12). Abigail Breslin, August: Osage County
46 (-15). Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
47 (-28). Jessica Lange, Thérèse
48 (-20). Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
49 (-29). Naomi Watts, Two Mothers
50 (-26). Amy Adams, Her

51 (-17). Amy Adams, Lullaby
52 (-30). Jennifer Hudson, The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete
53 (-17). Helen Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
54 (-16). Gwyneth Paltrow, Thanks for Sharing
55 (New). Zoe Saldana, Out of the Furnace
56 (-21). Nicole Kidman, Stoker

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Best Actress 2013: March Predictions (Lead / Supporting)

For me, 2012 wasn't that great of a year for Best Actress.  It wasn't bad.  It got really competitive towards the end, with several actresses jockeying for a position in the top five.  And, four of them who eventually made the final cut hailed from Best Picture nominees.  I'm too lazy to look up the history, but that's at or near a record (1977 did offer five actresses from four Best Picture nominees).  Of course, it's unfair to make the comparison to years passed when there were only five nominees.  But, still, with four ceremonies behind us with with +5 BP nominees, 2012 gave us the most with Best Actresses.  We went from three the first two years to one (! one, folks, one ... and it was The Help!), spiking up to four this year.  Does that mean anything?  I'm not sure.  Whatever it might mean, it's a net positive, in my opinion, regardless if two of those actors were obscure and of extreme ages.  But, out of the last four years, 2010 was still my favorite for the Best Actress race.  You had a mix of baity roles with women who drove their respective stories, or had an equal part.  Natalie Portman was solid as a schizophrenic ballerina in what was my favorite film of that year Black Swan.  Nicole Kidman and Michelle Williams were gangbusters good in films that were devastatingly great.  And in Winter's Bone, a star was born.  As much as I didn't care for The Kids Are All Right, Annette Bening's performance was revelatory, especially the bathroom scene and her moment at the dinner table which followed.

What does 2013 have in store for us?  I've only been blogging for two years, but I noted that 2011 and 2012 were notably different.  I actually pretty much forecasted the 2011 Best Actress race a year in advance.  I had the five eventual nominees in my Top Seven a little less than a year before their names were announced.  One of the those seven, Tilda Swinton, who was probably just edged out of a nomination, was in that group too.  Of course, for reasons I can't recall, I lost faith in Viola Davis fast (perhaps it was the initial syrupy sweet trailer that gave me Lifetime vibes), until The Help finally opened and all the pundits were clamoring that she was a shoe-in.  Later, I pushed Rooney Mara a few notches below the top five as the year wore on.  But, I was pretty accurate otherwise.  Then, of course, the year gave us a lot of, what I thought were, gimme's: Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher, Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe, and Glenn Close as Albert Nobbs.  Those nods were pretty much non-negotiable, and in the case of Streep and Williams, it was really a dilemma of: would they win?

With 2012, it was a challenge, just because there was so little going for the category on paper.  My pick for eventual winner, Keira Knightley as Anna Karenina, possibly may have gotten nominated in a super weak year (considering her film garnered four nominations, some of them surprises).  I held on to her, even though she dropped in rank until the film finally opened and it became clear that she was out of the competition.  The race was a hot mess and didn't even start beginning to shape up until late Summer.  By then, Quvenzhané Wallis was a given (though I pulled my feet right after Sundance).  At that point, I was also in with Emmanuelle Riva.  Two actresses, though, who appear so obvious now, were hard to call at first.  I had never read The Silver Linings Playbook, so my understanding was that Jennifer Lawrence was supporting.  I simply wasn't paying enough attention and reading between the lines.  I didn't start calling her (where she went straight to #1) until after TIFF and everyone was talking about her.  And I knew so little about Zero Dark Thirty, that, up until critics finally saw it, I thought that possibly Chastain was also a supporting character.  I had Naomi Watts on/off my list, until my last official Best Actress post in October where I had her at #6/7 during the Fall.  The bottom line: I sucked on lemons for last year.

For 2013 Best Actress, my impression is that it feels similar to 2011.  We have a semi-exhaustive list of possibilities including an abnormal amount of characters based on real people, which is where I find the inclination to compare this year to two year's ago.  Along with that, there doesn't seem to be too many Best Picture contenders ala The Help.  There's August: Osage County, and, to a lesser extent, Before Midnight, Gravity, and Lowlife.  And, like two year's ago, we have Meryl Streep.  Katharine Hepburn won two lead Oscars in her 60s.  She is also considered one of the greatest actresses ever.  So, this leads me to the lazy theorizing that, currently, Streep in August: Osage County is the odd's on favorite for a win.  But, yes, it may be "too soon" for another.  (But, imagine, she just handed Daniel Day-Lewis the Oscar; will he hand her one back?)  Her costar, Julia Roberts, will play her daughter in what was, at least in the play, also a lead role.  Both Streep and Roberts, previous Oscar winners, are joined in a sea of the like: Shirley MacLaine, Emma Thompson, Helen Hunt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Nicole Kidman, Reese Witherspoon, Marion Cotillard, Kate Winslet, Sandra Bullock, and recent winner Lawrence.  So many of them have baity projects, one still has to take into consideration that in Oscar history, there have only been five Best Actress races with three previous winners (never more than that).  To boot, since 1990, there have only been two Best Actress races that have had two previous winners.  This year seems to favor Streep and Kidman, with a chance for Roberts or Winslet to sneak in.  Thompson could be a dark horse and some seem to think Bullock has a chance.

What about the new potential Oscar faces?  We have Zoe Saldana, who has been involved in a ton of commercial work, including the lucrative Avatar (even though she wasn't really "her," but one of those CGI-alien smurfs), and Star Trek franchise.  I don't have much of an impression of the actress, but she didn't exactly fail when studios had her try to open Columbiana.  She seems like she is at the point of her career where she is striking while the iron is hot playing singer Nina Simone.  Amanda Seyfried, Felicity Jones, and Elizabeth Olsen may all also be ready to take their careers to the next level.

Like Saldana, also playing real life is one of this year's nominees, Naomi Watts.  From some angles, at first, I can't say that I'm that impressed with the physical test.  Princess Diana had such a distinct look and don't we know her more for her beauty and actions, rather than the way she expressed herself, which Watts will have to bat out of the park.  However, I have since seen other pictures where, like Michelle Williams with Marilyn after her performance, I can see the essence of Diana in her face while she displays a wry smirk.  Her fellow 2012 nominees, Chastain and Lawrence, both have fictional characters that may get them in the Oscar race.  Little is known about Chastain's project, aside from the fact that there will be two installments, and Lawrence's role has been described by some as having "Lady MacBeth" overtones.  Sundance, which usually gives us an eventual nominee or two, isn't the harbinger that it usually is for the Best Actress race.  It offers many films with female stars taking on lead roles, but none that stand out like in year's past.

On an anticipation level, I can't say that I'm excited to see many of these films.  Not sure why.  I already know I'm going to love Osage County, especially if it's three hours long.  Don't ask me why.  TWC will probably mess it up just as one of its rivals did with Les Misérables, but I'm going to love it anyway.  I'm curious about Serena, though it might end up being just plain bad.  Bradley Cooper doesn't instill much confidence in the project.  But, this may be Lawrence's film, so he might not even factor in (he certainly didn't when he was the lead in Silver Linings Playbook).  Labor Day could be good, as might A Most Wanted Man.  Though, with Rachel McAdams, I try to keep my expectations low, despite my fondness for her.  I adore Annette Bening, but I don't want to get  prematurely giddy about Look of Love.  Same goes for one of my newer favorites Elizabeth Olsen in Thérèse, whose project will pay off big-time if everything goes right.  Frances Ha I'm sure will be delightful, but I wonder if Greta Gerwig will be able to contend in the Oscar race.  Same goes for Julie Delpy in Before Midnight.  Malavita sounds promising, though I'm doubtful of Michelle Pfeiffer's chances.  Same goes for Emma Watson in The Bling Ring.  But, all in all, with so many actresses in prominent roles, this might turn out to be an spectacular year after all.

Anyway, that's all the blathering I have to cover you with (for now).  Here is the official first entry for Cinesnatch's Best Actress 2013 predictions:

Lead Actress
1. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
2. Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
3. Naomi Watts, Diana
4. Zoe Saldana, Nina
5. Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers; 2014?


6. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (supporting?)
7. Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
8. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
9. Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man
10. Kate Winslet, Labor Day

11. Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
13. Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse
14. Marion Cotillard, Lowlife
15. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
16. Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis (supporting?)
17. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
18. Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
19. Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
20. Judi Dench, Philomena (2014?)

21. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (supporting?)

22. Annette Bening, The Great (2014?)
23. Emmanuelle Seigner, Venus in Fur
24. Lily Rabe, The First (2014?)
25. Jessica Brown Findlay, Winter's Tale
26. Robin Weigert, Concussion
27. Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion (2014?)
28. Robin Wright, Two Mothers
29. Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby
30. Mia Wasikowska, Tracks

31. Annette Bening, Look of Love
32. Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
33. Mia Wasikowska, Madame Bovary
34. Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
35. Dakota Fanning, Effie
36. Emma Watson, The Bling Ring
37. Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
38. Naomi Watts, Sunlight, Jr.
39. Kristen Wiig, Girl Most Likely (formerly Imogene)
40. Rooney Mara, Ain't Them Bodies Saints

41. Elle Fanning, Ginger & Rosa
42. Cameron Diaz, The Counselor (supporting?)
43. Rebecca Hall, A Promise 
44. Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His
45. Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
46. Lake Bell, In a World ...
47. Gwyneth Paltrow, 33 días
48. Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
49. Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
50. Penélope Cruz, Twice Born

51. Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall
52. Michelle Pfeiffer, Malavita
53. Mia Wasikowska, Stoker
54. Hilary Swank, You're Not You
55. Jessica Biel, Emanuel and the Truth About Fishes
56. Naomi Watts, Two Mothers
57. Kaya Scodelario, Emanuel and the Truth About Fishes
58. Scarlett Johansson, Under the Skin
59. Keri Russell, Austenland 

*****NEW*****

Supporting Actress
1. Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
2. Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
3. Sienna Miller, Foxcatcher
4. Kristin Scott Thomas, Only God Forgives
5. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale

6. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
7. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
8. Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men
9. Alison Janney, The Way, Way Back
10. Cameron Diaz, The Counselor

11. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
12. Helen Bonham Carter, The Young and Prodigious Spivet
13. Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
14. Annette Bening, Girl Most Likely
15. Leslie Mann, The Bling Ring
16. Robin Wright, A Most Wanted Man
17. Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
18. Isla Fischer, The Great Gatsby
19. Jessica Lange, Thérèse
20. Naomi Watts, Two Mothers

21. Elizabeth Olsen, Oldboy
22. Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
23. Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
24. Amy Adams, Her
25. Penélope Cruz, The Counselor
26. Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
27. Juliette Lewis, August: Osage County
28. Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
29. Julianne Nicholson, August: Osage County
30. Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyer's Club

31. Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
32. Jennifer Hudson, The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete
33. Abigail Breslin, August: Osage County
34. Amy Adams, Lullaby
35. Nicole Kidman, Stoker
36. Helen Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
37. Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
38. Gwyneth Paltrow, Thanks for Sharing

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Best Actress 2013: Helen Hunt / Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker

Cinematographer Steven Bernstein directed and cowrote the screenplay Decoding Annie Parker with Adam Bernstein and Michael Moss about the real life Anne Parker (Samantha Morton) who is yet another member of her dwindling family to be struck with cancer.  She has an irrepressible spirit that pushes her through her illness allowing for her to finally benefit from the years of research conducted by geneticist Mary-Claire King (Helen Hunt) who established a ground-breaking connection between the disease and DNA.  The film sounds like it may have a co-lead situation, with, I imagine, weight being thrown to the baitier title role (Morton) for lead, but I really have no idea.  The crew includes editor Douglas Crise (Babel).  Filmed in Whittier, California, later 2011, Parker is supposed to release in March.

Now, Hunt is one of many Best Actress possibilities this year with a lead Oscar already under her belt.  There is enough of her company to choke a horse starting with 1982 winner Meryl Streep, to Shirley MacLaine, Emma Thompson, Julia Roberts, Nicole Kidman, Marion Cotillard, Kate Winslet, Sandra Bullock, and, now, Jennifer Lawrence.  But, how many of them can get realistically nominated this year.  It's pretty common for there to be at least one previous lead winner in the category.  The numerous times Streep has been nominated in the last three decades has been a big help in that department.  Two previous lead winners was actually pretty common after the occurrence first started in 1935 with Claudette Colbert and Katharine Hepburn in the mix.  There were two more times in the 1930s (1937, 1938), a bunch of times in the 1940s (1940, 1942, 1944, 1945, 1948, 1949) and the 1950s (1952, 1954, 1956, 1959), with 1951 offering the first year there were three: Hepburn, Vivien Leigh, and Jane Wyman.  It continued through the 1960s (1962, 1964, 1965), ending the decade with two years of a majority previous winners (1967 and 1968).  In the seventies, there were two years with two winners (1971, 1977) and two years with three (1973, 1978), with the phenomenon of the latter to have never occurred again since.  Two continued to be common in the 1980s (1981, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1986) through to 1990.  Since, it has only happened twice: 1995 and 2009 (Streep and Mirren).

This year, it seems next to certain that there will be at least two, if not possibly three.  I would bank on Streep and Kidman, for starters.  After that, it could be anyone's game.  Remember how close Marion Cotillard and Helen Mirren got for 2012?

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Best Actress 2013: Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse

Two years ago, Elizabeth Olsen, younger sister of the infamous twin business tycoons who got their start on TV's Full House, made quite an impression at Sundance in her film debut (!) Martha Marcy May Marlene.  The film's vagueness and unassumingly creepy flavor was a favorite of some, while its cryptic nature and uneven structure was lost on others.  Most people were in agreement, though: Olsen was outstanding.  She was shortlisted for an Oscar and had it not been such a competitive year, she might have made it in.  In interviews, she seems very sweet-natured, intelligent, and grounded.  She has gone on to work quite repeatedly since then, having opened the horror remake Silent House in 2012 and played the romantic lead in Josh Radnor's Liberal Arts.  She has also taken supporting roles in films starring such film legends like Jane Fonda and Sigourney Weaver.  This year, she has bit roles as Edie Parker in Beat movie Kill Your Darlings and in Spike Lee's remake of Oldboy, as well as a colead opposite Dakota Fanning in Very Good Girls.  She has also signed on to the dubious reboot of the Godzilla franchise, directed by a man with only one feature under his belt, 2010's cult VOD-hit Monsters.  Part of the charm being the cheesiness of the original, is there really room for it to strive to anything more than as pointless as the Raymond Burr and Matthew Broderick versions?  Anyhow, the girl needs commercial exposure, and hopefully, she will reap some rewards here.  Who knows, maybe third is the charm with the rebooting the franchise.  Or is it more?

In the meanwhile, she has Charlie Stratton's adaptation of soap opera writer Neal Bell's play from the Émile Zola novel Thérèse Raquin.  In this romantic thriller, Olsen will play the title character whose past criminal choices come back to haunt her ala Hamlet.  The cast includes Jessica Lange (who replaced Glenn Close), Oscar Isaac, Matt Lucas, and Tom Felton.  Filmed in Hungary and Serbia, the impressive crew includes composer Gabriel Yared (The English Patient, The Talented Mr. Ripley, Cold Mountain), cinematographer Florian Hoffmeister (The Deep Blue Sea), editors Celia Haining and Paul Tothill (Atonement), production designer Uli Hanisch (Cloud Atlas, The International), and costume designer Pierre-Yves Gayraud (Cloud Atlas).  Note that many of these artists have worked consistently with certain auteurs (Anthony Minghella, Joe Wright, Tom Tykwer).  LD Entertainment (Albert Nobbs, Biutiful, Silent House) will handle distribution.  It will be interesting to see how Olsen fares in this period role, which had at one time both Kate Winslet and then Jessica Biel (!) attached, as everything she has done up until now has been so contemporary.  Fingers crossed.  Love this girl and want nothing more to see her succeed.

Her role in the Oldboy remake will probably be supporting and Lee doesn't have a good track record for Oscar attention, though it was wise for Olsen to work with a director who has helped changed the commercial and artistic landscape of film over the decades he has been working.  Both Rooney Mara and Mia Wasikowska turned down the role.  The cast includes Josh Brolin, Samuel L. Jackson, and Michael Imperioli.  Mark Protosevich (The Cell, I Am Legend, Thor) adapted the movie from Garon Tsuchiya's story of Nobuaki Minegishi's comic.  Lee had his editor Barry Alexander Brown cut the film.  Steven McQueen's DOP Sean Bobbitt, who has The Place Beyond the Pines and Seven Years a Slave coming out, did the camerawork.  Bruce Hornsby (!) who has previously collaborated with Lee No, that would be Gabriel Yared (Anthony Minghella's guy) who composed the score.  Ben Affleck's production designer Sharon Seymour was also on board.  Ruth E. Carter (Malcolm, Amistad) designed the costumes.  Filmed this passed Fall in New Orleans, newish distributor Film District (Drive, Looper) is set to release movie on October 11th.

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Best Actress 2013: Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman

Ralph Fiennes follows up his freshman directing effort Coriolanus with The Invisible Woman.  Abi Morgan (The Iron Lady, Shame) adapted Claire Tomalin's book about the relationship between actress Nelly Ternan (Felicity Jones) and Charles Dickens (Fiennes).  Their considerable age difference as well as the fact that Dickens was a married man managed to destroy her reputation.  Sounds similar to Effie.  Fiennes English Patient costar Kristen Scott Thomas is also in the cast.  The crew includes production designer Maria Djurkovic (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Hours), and costume designer Michael O'Connor (Jane Eyre, The Duchess).  Jones bursted onto the scene in 2011 with the romantic drama Like Crazy.  Filmed in April of last year in Middlesex, Sony Picture Classics will distribute the movie sometime this year.

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Best Actress 2013: Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

I've posted on Margo Martindale and Meryl Streep being likely Oscar nominees (and frontrunners for the win) for August: Osage County come a year from now.  But, what about Julia Roberts?  And, for which category?  She will play Streep's daughter Barbara Weston, a wife and mother dealing with a cheating husband and an addictive coping mechanism.  The character is a lead in its own right.  Amy Morton played her on Broadway and lost to Deanna Dunagan for the Tony, who originated the role of mother Violet.  Chances are, Roberts isn't looking at a potential win, but, if she is, it's probably in the supporting category.  It'll be interesting to see what will happen if she is nominated alongside Martindale, who has the smaller, but scene-chewing role.

Two leads in the same category, either male or female, haven't been nominated for Oscar since Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon as Thelma & Louise in 1991.  The occurrence wasn't that uncommon in the 1950s and 1960s.  It happened three times in the 1970s with Sleuth, Network and The Turning Point, and then three more times in the span of a year with Terms of Endearment, The Dresser, and then Amadeus the following year.  It has become obsolete in the last twenty years.

Now, why hasn't it occurred since?  My theory is: why have two of your actors compete against each other, when you can give them each a shot at winning?  That's what Chicago did ten years ago, and it almost paid off completely, if it weren't for The Hours doing the exact same thing.  The English Patient and Training Day also managed one win out of a category break.  Notes on a Scandal, Secrets & Lies, Brokeback Mountain, The Master all managed at least two nods from distributing the role designations, but no win.  The Kids Are All Right, The Shawshank Redemption, and Frost/Nixon weren't so fortunate.  With a lot of the aforementioned films that were successfully campaigned in two different categories, an argument could be made to justify it (i.e. the story of Chicago being told through Roxie's eyes, Ennis Del Mar's arc, etc).  But, could an argument be made today for breaking up Thelma & Louise?  There's just no way.  They each have their own journey and are both on the screen during almost the entire film, with each having some of their own scenes.  Amadeus had his own story, as well as being the title character, but Salieri was the driving force of the story.  Could we see a return?  We'll just have to wait and see when the film opens and the new Oscar season begins.

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Best Actress 2013: Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco

Now that Deadline reports TWC is finalizing details on a distribution deal with Grace of Monaco, it appears that Nicole Kidman will be throwing down for lead this year instead of next.  Harvey Weinstein may be funding the campaigns for what might be the two frontrunners for Best Actress.  My initial hunch was that it would be another year before Grace of Monaco hit.  Filming wrapped not too long ago.  And it was not unheard of for a movie to prepare for such a lengthy post-production period.  In fact, Nicole Kidman's The Hours wrapped early Spring 2001 and didn't hit theaters until over 1 1/2 years later.  Director Olivier Dahan finished La vie en rose about this time of year and then debuted his film a year later in Berlin, with a Spring opening that maintained buzz for the rest of its release year.  And, I figured Kidman wouldn't go against her Hours costar Meryl Streep, as well as her bestie Naomi Watts--who is also playing a princess--in a year top-heavy with Best Actress biographies.  She's more fearless that we anticipate.  Still, even based on a real-life figure, was Grace Kelly such a compelling figure off stage?  On screen, she was a movie star with a special quality that induced gawking.  But, the perceived lack of the extreme drama Oscar loves to lap up instills little faith that the wait will be worth it for Kidman.  And, with lensing finished, will she quit the Botox now that it's no longer necessary for her to look 32 years of age in the context of her artistry?  And, how much mileage will her detractors get out of making a big deal of the gap?  And, how shrewd were the timing of the distribution announcement and first official pictures?

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Best Actress 2013: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (for the win)

Now that we have a Best Actress 2012, who will be Best Actress 2013?  I'm positive Jennifer Lawrence will make another trip up to the Oscar stage in the near future (before she's 30, easy), will 2013 be a repeat winner?  Blame Katharine Hepburn for winning two Oscars back-to-back in her 60s.  Blame Harvey Weinstein. Blame a great Tony Award-winning role.  Blame the fact that it's being played by the most respected working actress today.  But, even with her third win just a year ago after a decades long drought, for the time being, I'm calling Meryl Streep for Best Actress 2013.  She plays Violet Weston in Tracy Letts' August: Osage County, the Oklahoman matriarch of a large drama-addled family who suffers from a prescription problem and must deal with her recently AWOL husband (Sam Shepard).  Letts also wrote Bug and Killer Joe.  This is John Wells' follow-up to The Company Men, but he's known primarily for the hit TV show ER, as well as the recent Shameless.  The cast includes Julia Roberts, Juliette Lewis, Julianne Nicholson, Ewan McGregor, Benedict Cumberbatch, Abigail Breslin, Dermot Mulroney, Chris Cooper, and future Oscar-nominee Margo Martindale.  TWC will distribute the movie filmed this passed Fall in Oklahoma, as well as Nicole Kidman's Grace of Monaco.  Weinstein is producing along with Argonauts George Clooney and Grant Heslov.  Cinematography was by Adriano Goldman (Sin Nombre), editor is Oscar-winning Stephen Mirrione (Traffic, Babel), and production designer is David Gropman (Life of Pi, The Cider House Rules).

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