Oscar 2012 Predictions: Lessons Learned

So, another Oscar telecast has passed.  People have weighed in on the quality of host and broadcast, as well as the winners/losers.  I was full of food and drink, so my impression of the ceremony was more positive than it had any right to be.  Accusations of homophobia and sexism were lobbed across the internet, but flew over my head.  Seth MacFarlane was pretty solid, though he was no Tina & Amy.  A step above Ricky Gervais perhaps and miles better than James Franco.  I actually enjoyed the homage to "Hollywood musicals of the last ten years," loved the overall Broadway vibe, and thought that Jennifer Hudson batted it out of the park.  Sometimes I forget that girl can sing.  Adele and Babs brought it as well.  There were some odd choices (like the finale, as well as the Michelle Obama bit), for what was an unspectacular, but definitely watchable show.

In the predicting game, one can never really say, "I told you so," when, in all truth, any who wins may as well have won by one vote, unless, of course, as there was last night in the Sound Effects Editing category, there is a tie.  I'm a bit embarrassed not that I predicted effects-laden adventure Best Picture nominee Life of Pi, but that I was so certain Zero Dark Thirty was out of contention.  While it was an action-oriented Best Picture nominee, I was almost certain that controversy would take it out of taking any awards home.  That wasn't the case for Kathryn Bigelow's film, nor was it the case for James Bond movie Skyfall.  Others incorrectly had Best Picture winner Argo pegged.  But, what this year has proved for the SEE award is that sophisticated explosive action is sophisticated explosive action, whether you're nominated for Best Picture or not.

As for the nine categories that Gold Derby was unanimous on (for all intents and purposes), they were correct and it made no sense to question.  On the next eleven, where there were frontrunners with minor, but visible dissent, it paid off to go with group-think on eight of the categories.  Sticking with Lawrence paid off.  The group was (half) right about Zero Dark Thirty winning sound effects editing.  Even with two winners, I was destined to get this one incorrect.  Edward Douglas was the only one who predicted Skyfall.  Thelma Adams, Matt Atchity, Michael Hogan, Richard Horgan, Michael Musto, Kevin Polowy, Keith Simanton, Alex Suskind, Peter Travers, Chuck Walton, Susan Wloszczyna were behind Zero Dark Thirty.

They were right about the shorts, except for the one I deviated on for documentary short Inocente.  My rationale there was mostly the narrative, as well as the strong social media campaign.  Thom Geler, Dave Karger, Tariq Khan, Anne Thompson, Peter Travers, and Glenn Whipp also called it for a win.

I never understood those who filed behind The Hobbit for makeup.  The ones who went with Les Misérables: Thelma Adams, Edward Douglas, Pete Hammond, Richard Horgan, Tariq Khan, Ramin Setoodeh, Paul Sheehan, Keith Simanton, Anne Thompson, and Peter Travers.

The lesson with animated feature was that when you have The Golden Globe and BAFTA winner staring you in the face, you probably should just follow along.  Kudos to Anne Thompson and Brad Brevet for getting Brave right.  For as long as BAFTA has been handing out the prize, the eventual Oscar winner got it or The Globe.

The more unpredictable races both resulted in wins for Django Unchained.  The AMPAS ultimately were in love with this movie beyond what my negative bias would permit me to see.  Talk about the sign posts being in plain sight.  Obviously, the precursors were there as red flags.  It didn't really matter that the screenplay isn't all that good and lacks sound narrative structure and memorable dialogue.  And it didn't matter that Christophe Waltz didn't give us a performance that distinguished itself from his Oscar-winning turn in Inglourious Basterds.  Though, it certainly helped that he was a leading character who basically drove a great deal of the story.   Michael Musto, Tom O'Neil, Richard Rushfield, and Paul Sheehan were all in for Django in both categories.  Lodge, Atchity, Douglas, Hogan, Horgan, Rosen, Simanton, and Travers all missed one of its wins, but got the other.

Adams, Douglas, Hammond, Hogan, Karger, Khan, Lodge, O'Neil, Steve Pond, Sheehan, and Thompson all had Ang Lee for the directing win.  The logic here was that out of the few precursors the field of five carried, Lee was the only one who got small, but plentiful recognitions.

Major props go to Geler and Thompson for being the only ones to call Lincoln's second win for production design.  I'm not sure I would have ever had a chance at calling this race.

The biggest lesson for me was that if the prediction doesn't feel right, then there is probably something wrong with the prediction.  I felt that way about everything I got wrong: original screenplay, supporting actor, production design, animated feature, and sound effects editing.

All in all, I could have easily scored 22, if I took my blinders off.  I'll have to settle for 19/24, which, at least, is a personal record.  How did you do?

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Oscar Predictions 2012 (Final)

Well, the Oscars are this weekend.  Do you have your predictions ready?  I can't say that I have many horses in the race.  The films that I really loved this year either weren't nominated or their chances have been sidelined by controversy (*cough* Zero Dark Thirty *cough*).  So, right now, I'm mostly about how good I can be at reading the tea leaves in an ever uncertain year.  I was hoping to do better than my usual 18/24, but, this year, that may be as hard as it appears.  I still find bias creeping in from the opposite end of the spectrum.  I really detested the last two hours of Django Unchained, which has actually fared well in the precursors in two categories.  What complicates matters is that though, on paper, wins appear inevitable, its divisiveness may do in its odds of winning.  And that I ultimately didn't like the film doesn't help.  Another blind spot for me might be Lincoln.  I'm only calling it for Best Actor, but might it sneak in for director and/or production design?  That would be a strange combination of victories, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.  A less polarizing film is Skyfall, which was a new high for the 50-year old James Bond franchise.  Will it be honored only with Best Song, or did The Academy love it a little more?  If it did, why didn't it make the Best Picture field?  If Argo wins as film of the year, it will be one of the weaker wins in history, with a likely two other trophies, not including Best Director.  Will voters give it more wins out of pity?

I'm sensing a good showing for Amour, but not clear on just what categories it will take.  Did you get on the Emmanuelle bandwagon with Tariq Khan, or stick with weakish frontrunner Jennifer Lawrence, who had been in the lead for five months now and go with the AMPAS rewarding Amour for its screenplay?  Silver Linings Playbook must pick up at least one win for acting, no?  If it's not Lawrence, long-shot Robert De Niro will win, right?  Every movie to cover all acting categories in Academy history has taken at least one thespian win home.

Where am I placing a good share of my bets?  Life of Pi.  If the Ang Lee train loads up on Oscar night, I don't want to be wrong and am calling it for every category its competitive in.

Best Picture
50% Argo
42.5% Lincoln
5% Silver Linings Playbook
2.5% Life of Pi
0%   Les Misérables
0%   Amour
0%   Django Unchained
0%   Beasts of the Southern Wild
0%   Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
35% Ang Lee
30% Steven Spielberg
25% David O. Russell
10% Michael Haneke
0%   Benh Zeitlin

Best Actress
42.5% Jennifer Lawrence
37.5% Emmanuelle Riva
17.5% Jessica Chastain
2.5%   Naomi Watts
0%      Quvenzhané Wallis

It will be BAFTA winner Riva's birthday on Oscar night and she will have flown all the way over from France, despite her fears.  It's a lovely narrative behind a great performance, but will it be enough?  Silver Linings Playbook's MVP is Jennifer Lawrence, to a lesser extent, its screenplay.  However, 1) it's not "her [character's] movie," (though her performance suggests otherwise), 2) it's partly a comedy, and 3) it may be too early to crown her with Oscar.  Frenchman Jean Dujardin will be handing out the Oscar to the Best Actress winner.  Will enough voters have seen the Frenchwoman's movie?

Best Actor
100% Daniel Day-Lewis
0%     Hugh Jackman
0%     Joaquin Phoenix
0%     Bradley Cooper
0%     Denzel Washington

Day-Lewis already had this when he made the cover of Time (others had him shrewdly pegged for a win earlier than this), but with Lincoln seemingly having lost steam in just about every category it's nominated in, what appreciation for the film may be distilled down to a win for the man playing the title character.

Best Supporting Actress
98.5% Anne Hathaway
1%      Sally Field
0.5%   Amy Adams
0%      Jacki Weaver
0%      Helen Hunt

I wonder if the backlash against Hathaway will be big enough.  Never say never.  But, it seems like such a done deal.  Not awarding her at this point, like with Argo, would just be mean, no matter how much I've made fun of her.

Best Supporting Actor
32.5%  Robert De Niro
30%    Tommy Lee Jones
30%    Christopher Waltz
5%      Alan Arkin
2.5%   Philip Seymour Hoffman

This is just a crapshoot.  And, again, I'm taking the suicide route and going with the actor with the most Oscars who hasn't previously won anything this whole season.  I'm also betting that the performance of Waltz, who has the precursors on his side, will be seen as too similar to his other work.  Personal bias is also affecting me here.  SO much.  Don't listen to me when it comes to this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay
35%    Argo
32.5% Silver Linings Playbook
32.5% Lincoln
0%      Life of Pi
0%      Beasts of the Southern Wild

The WGA-win for Argo sealed the deal for me, though it's still pretty close.

Best Original Screenplay
35%    Amour
32.5% Django Unchained (aka My Achilles Heel)
17.5% Moonrise Kingdom
15%    Zero Dark Thirty
0%      Flight

Who knows, Moonrise Kingdom could upset.  With gas still in its tank from the WGA win, Zero Dark Thirty could rally back and claim what is rightfully his; or, gulp, the AMPAS could follow The Globes and BAFTA and reward that unclean film Django Unchained.  My Amour prediction is pretty much a suicide guess, if you consider that most Oscar winners in this category have won the WGA (Amour wasn't nominated).  In the instances that it didn't, The King's Speech and, another foreign language film, Talk to Her won BAFTA.  Good Will Hunting took The Globe.  Almost Famous had the BFCA.  All signs point to Django, but I'm allowing personal bias to get in the way.  I'm saying that the violence will have turned off the AMPAS.  Though, they may want to honor the anti-slavery movie with a lot of violence, considering they just may well practically shut out the anti-slavery movie with little.  Still, I'm assuming the AMPAS will have seen Amour, been moved deeply, and vote with their hearts, artificial and otherwise.  Notice how both my suicide guesses involve betting against Django?  This could be my downfall.

And the Rest:
Cinematography: Life of Pi
     2. Skyfall
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Editing: Argo
Production Design: Anna Karenina
     2. Les Misérables
     3. Life of Pi
     4. Lincoln
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Makeup: Les Misérables
Score: Life of Pi
     2. Argo
     3. Skyfall
Song: Skyfall
     2. Les Misérables
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
     2. Skyfall 
     3. Argo
     4. Life of Pi
Sound Editing: Life of Pi
     2. Skyfall
     3. Argo 
     4. Zero Dark Thirty
Foreign Language: Amour
Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
     2. Brave
     3. Frankenweenie
     4. ParaNorman
Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man 
     2. The Invisible War
Animated Short: Paperman
Documentary Short: Inocente
     2. Open Heart
     3. Mondays at Racine
Live Action Short: Curfew

Prediction Count:
Life of Pi (5)
Les Misérables (3)
Argo (3)
Silver Linings Playbook (2)
Amour (2)
Anna Karenina (2)
Lincoln (1)
Skyfall (1)
Django Unchained (0)
Zero Dark Thirty (0)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (0)

Likeliest Wins from Most Likely to Least:
Life of Pi: Visual Effects > Cinematography > Sound Editing = Score > Director > Production Design > Sound Mixing > Picture > Screenplay > Editing > Song
Pi could be the big winner of the evening, as Ang Lee's last two big Oscar pushes both didn't do too badly.  So, how many?  One, two, three, four or ... five?  Five is The Aviator territory.  Still, how much is too much?  Three or four predicted wins seems so much safer.  But, I find myself, along with Silver Linings Playbook, covering all the bases, because I don't know what to leave out.

Les Misérables: Sup. Actress > Sound Mixing > Makeup > Production Design > Song > Costume Design > Actor > Picture
Oscar is choosing to honor the movie musical genre on Oscar night.  Will it shower the only musical nominated with multiple wins?  Three seems to be the minimum.  Will it tie Pi?

Argo: Editing > Picture > Screenplay > Sound Editing = Score > Sound Mixing > Sup. Actor
The likely Best Picture winner may make history with some of the fewest wins ever, but it appears it's en route to taking two other Oscars home.  Could it sneak in one or two more?

Silver Linings Playbook: Actress > Sup. Actor > Screeenplay > Director > Editing > Picture > Actor > Sup. Actress
SLP could either go home empty-handed, take three big ones, or something in between.  It's Harvey, though.  He has to take something, right?  There's always Django.  Here's another way of looking at it: in 2009, he only got an Oscar for Christoph Waltz, who was the clear favorite in the category.  In 2008, he got two actors Oscars for different films.  Could he do it again?  My thinking is to bet on Lawrence and De Niro.  One of them is bound to win, right?  (I'm so stubborn.)

Amour: Foreign Language Film > Screenplay = Actress > Director > Picture
Amour will win one, but probably no more than three.

Anna Karenina: Costume Design > Production Design > Score > Cinematography
The other non-BP nominee who could be a player on Oscar night.

Lincoln: Actor > Supporting Actor = Director > Screenplay > Production Design > Picture > Editing > Sound Editing > Costume Design > Score > Cinematography > Sup. Actress
The once perceived frontrunner may go home with only one Oscar for Best Actor.  Daniel Day-Lewis is the film's MVP.  Could he carry Tommy Lee Jones with him?  Or Steven Spielberg?

Skyfall: Song > Cinematography > Sound Editing > Score > Sound Mixing
Nominated for five awards, it's possible that it could take four awards.  But, having not been able to achieve a BP nomination, will that negate its chances?  Definitely will go home with at least one.

Django Unchained: Screenplay > Supporting Actor > Sound Editing > Cinematography > Picture
I hope Django goes home empty-handed.  The smart money would be to predict it will take at least one home.  The only problem is which one, and how much would it suck to pick the wrong one?  That's why I'm going with zero, along with predicting two for SLP.  That may cost me three points out of twenty-four.  Am I willfully ignoring the effectiveness of the Harvey machine here?

Zero Dark Thirty: Screenplay = Sound Editing > Actress > Editing > Picture
Thirty is likely to go home empty-handed.  I would prefer to be pleasantly surprised, even if it costs me a point(s) on predictions.

Beasts of the Southern Wild: Screenplay > Actress > Director > Picture
A dark-horse contender that probably will not win anything.  Sorry hushpuppy.


Gold Derby Addendum (added 2/22)
For shits and giggles, I thought I'd list the Gold Derby consensus.  They are pretty much in agreement on nine categories.  Another eleven categories has a predominance of group think (which I diverge from a couple of times).  Two more categories they go 50/50 and then two more are almost three-way races.  If you want to go with group-think, it can take you through almost all the categories, but you're on your own with Director and Production Design.  The only movies which overlap in the four more uncertain categories are Lincoln and Django Unchained.  Just how much the AMPAS loved those two films may be indicated on Oscar night.


All-In (with a couple of dissenters, but not a significant amount)
Picture: Argo
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Sup. Actress: Anne Hathaway
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Song: Skyfall
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Foreign Language Film: Amour
Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man

Heavily Favored
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, with an Emmanuelle Riva brigade
     *I'm going with the favorite
Adapted Screenplay: Argo, with a small Lincoln contingent
     *I'm going with the favorite
Editing: Argo, with some unbelievably suggesting Zero Dark Thirty will be the winner
     *I'm going with the favorite (which is really a gimme)
Cinematography: Life of Pi, with some thinking Skyfall could take it
     *I'm going with the favorite
Score: Life of Pi, with a tiny group thinking Lincoln or Argo
     *I'm going with the favorite
Makeup: The Hobbit, with a healthy set of backers behind Les Misérables
     *I'm going with the underdog, I guess
Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty, but with three other films being predicted by at least three
     *I'm going with one of the underdogs, which I'm not so sure is an underdog, Life of Pi

Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph, with a small group calling Frankenweenie
     *I'm going with the favorite
Animated Short: Paperman, with some others calling Adam and Dog or Head Over Heels
     *I'm going with the favorite
Documentary Short: Open Heart, with Inocente having a strong enough backing
     *I'm going with Inocente

Live Action Short: Curfew, though every single nominee has someone predicting it
    *I'm going with the favorite

50/50
Director: Steven Spielberg/Ang Lee, with edge to Spielberg
     *I'm flipping the coin for Lee

50/50 with possible spoiler
Production Design: Anna Karenina vs. Les Misérables, with tiny group of Life of Pi predictors
     *Going with Anna Karenina

Hot Mess
Sup. Actor: Robert De Niro in lead, with Tommy Lee Jones close behind, and then Christophe Waltz
     *I'm going with the presumed favorite, though it was before he collected so much support
Original Screenplay: Django Unchained in lead, with Zero Dark Thirty close behind, and then Amour
     *I'm going with the third likeliest

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Best Director Oscar 2012 Prediction: Ang Lee, Life of Pi

This year is so crazy with predicting the Oscar race.  But, that's what we ask for, isn't it?  We want a real race.  And, of course, we'll never live in a time, where all five nominees in every category are of equal top critical and commercial success.  We have to take what we can get.  Cinesnatch egregiously reported that the Best Director race months ago was between Steven Spielberg and Ben Affleck.  As it turned out, Affleck wasn't nominated by the AMPAS and the buzz on Lincoln has cooled some.  Things weren't so cut and dried.  What makes matters murkier is that the awards bodies that didn't line up behind Affleck, threw their weight towards other directors who weren't nominated for Oscar like Kathryn Bigelow and Paul Thomas Anderson.  Only Ang Lee for Life of Pi has been singled out multiple times.  Three, in fact, which include the film critics of Kansas City, London, and Las Vegas.  A contingent of Gold Derby experts are filing behind his chances including Douglas, Hammond, Khan, Lodge, and Thompson.  National Society went with Michael Haneke for Amour and one Gold Derby pundit (Rosen, though I could have sworn Lodge had him up at the top recently) are predicting him; I just find the film too intimate for the AMPAS to award so a lofty prize.  David O. Russell was chosen by the dubious Satellite Awards and some film festivals, though he's probably more competitive in the screenplay category.  There are still some Gold Derby experts, led by Jeff Wells, who thinks he's going to take the prize (Adams, Horgan, homophobe Setoodeh).  And, I wonder how his "reformed" caustic personality will play with Oscar voters in general.  Newbie Ben Zeitlin falls into the "lucky to be nominated" category, but, this year, who knows.  The group think is with Lincoln's Steven Spielberg, who has won zero honors for directing in connection with this film.

The race does seem to boil down to Spielberg and Lee.  Both veterans, Spielberg with two wins under his belt and Lee with one.  Lee has slowly worked his way up with the AMPAS, first having directed a BP nominee without getting a director's nod, then managing both, and then doing so again, winning for director, but losing BP.  The natural progression this year would be for Lee to win both, I suppose.

I'm really kind of shocked how Lincoln has gross over $170M, nabbed twelve nominations and has seemingly lost its mojo, having really not performed that well through the awards circuit.  Did the marketing team mess up on this one with an unintended sense of entitlement?  Lincoln was such an "Important" movie, right?  Made the most money out of all the nominees.  And was right up there with many of the other films on the review front.  Talk about blowing it.  Having not taken one honor for directing, I'll give the edge to Lee, who is easy to see as a two-time Oscar winner.  Besides, you can do worse this year than cover all your bases on Pi.  But, I wouldn't be surprised if Spielberg rallies for an eleventh hour surge.

Who do I think should have won?  Bigelow, naturally.

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Best Sound Mixing Oscar 2012 Prediction: Les Misérables

Now, if I'm understanding correctly, the sound mixing teams take all the recorded audio, sounds, etc, and are responsible for putting everything together and smoothing out all the bumps, adjusting levels, etc.  The award is for Best Sound Mixing, but used to be called Best Sound.  The winner of this award isn't always nominated for the companion sound editing award (though it does work mostly in the reverse direction).  Oftentimes, eventual Best Picture winners and near misses make the grade, as well as action pictures.  One giveaway, though, that makes my guess a lazy one, is that musicals are often favored for the win.  Chicago and Dreamgirls took this in a cakewalk, and even that God-awful The Phantom of the Opera got a nomination, along with its Andrew Lloyd Webber precursor Evita.  Ray wasn't technically a musical, but it too won.  Going back further, there were wins for Cabaret, Fiddler on the Roof, Hello, Dolly!, Oliver!, (what is it with exclamation points on musicals?) The Sound of Music, My Fair Lady, and on and on, etc.  Moulin Rouge! did lose to Black Hawk Down in 2001, which may be something to consider.  Taking note that Les Misérables is also a BP nominee, but much was made about almost all of its singing being recorded live, it strikes me as kind of insane if it doesn't win, right?  Gold Derby mostly agrees.  Argo (Setoodeh), Life of Pi, and Skyfall (Feinberg, Lodge) are spillovers from the Sound Editing category, with Lincoln (Horgan) rounding out the five.

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Best Sound Editing Oscar 2012 Prediction: Life of Pi

Strict action and fantasy films tend to do well in the sound editing category.  This is the sound award, that if I'm understanding the process in general correctly, that is designed to recognize the artistic teams which capture and create the artificial sounds utilized during the course of a movie beyond the dialogue while filming.  For the last decade, it helped to be a BP nominee (or Field of Tenner).  It was also a very positive sign if the movie was nominated additionally for Sound Mixing.  This year, history suggests that the main contenders are Argo, Life of Pi, and Skyfall, with the edge going to Pi (a Hugo-like entry, if you will).  Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained are also nominated.  But, who is to say?  Rules are meant to be thrown out of the window.  In hindsight, it appears the toughest year to call may have been when The Hurt Locker swept Avatar under the rug.  This year, half of the Gold Derby pundits are calling Kathryn Bigelow's followup Zero for the win.  I just don't what they're smoking.  Perhaps they know something I don't.  I think my Pi choice is the lazy guess.  Five chose Argo (Khan, O'Neil, Rosen, Whipp, and homophobe Setoodeh).  Skyfall (Douglas, Feinberg, Lodge) and Pi (Geler, Hammond, Thompson) each captured the attention of three.  One wonders if Best Picture winner Argo is in need of additional wins for some kind of justification.  But, then I think of Crash and Dolly Parton and "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp."  And the ones that do well, usually do so effortlessly.

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Best Documentary Oscar 2012 Prediction: Searching for Sugar Man

Last year, I correctly predicted Undefeated for Best Documentary.  I can't really tell you what my logic was, because my knee-jerk reaction right now is, "Why didn't I go with commercial favorite Pina?"  Perhaps it was because TWC was the distributor and Pina was too abstract?  Who knows.  I should really document these things.  The year before, Inside Job did do the best at the box-office and took home the top prize.  I couldn't tell you why The Cove beat Food, Inc., but it did have a Hollywood actor as producer.  It also had "that scene."  You know what I'm talking about.  Man on Wire was simply a fascinating story that beat Werner Herzog's meditation on the South Pole Encounters at the End of the World.  Previous nominee Alex Gibney won over No End in Sight, as well as Michael Moore's Sicko.  An Inconvenient Truth was a commercial favorite over WGA-winner Deliver Us from Evil.  Sugar Man, Job, The Cove, Taxi to the Dark Side all won the WGA.  All the other Oscar-winners weren't nominated in the aforementioned examples, except when you get to March of the Penguins.  Remember March of the Penguins?  Those waddling tuxedo birds were really popular in the mid-2000s (Happy Feet anyone?).

Well, the popular favorite this year is Searching for Sugar Man this year.  The film about two South Africans looking for supposedly reclusive American musician Rodriguez has an 8.2 IMDb rating and over three times as many votes as the next nominee The Invisible War.  Ironically, while documentary shorts are the ugly stepchild of Oscar night (mostly due to depressing subject matter), documentary features are often more embraced than the foreign language films.  Rotten Tomatoes tells a somewhat similar story to the IMDb, with War and How to Survive a Plague receiving perfect scores, as well as a healthy sized number of reviews in context.  Sugar Man has over twice as many critical responses (but five "rotten" reviews).  The film has been cited for some inaccuracies regarding Rodriguez' career.  Metacritic reflects about the same story as RT, but there's an expectional drop in positive responses for Sugar Man.  However, the documentary has grossed $3.3M domestic, which is far and above the take of the other four put together.  On the awards circuit, 5 Broken Cameras won a few festival awards, including a directing prize at Sundance.  The Gatekeepers was recognized by the critics of NBR, NSFC, and LA and nominated by the PGA along with Sugar Man.  New York, along with some other minor critic groups, chose How to Survive a Plague.  The Invisible War has also won some critic awards as well as Best Documentary at Sundance.  It was also nominated by the WGA, but lost to Sugar Man.  (Does it seem weird to you that the WGA has a category for documentaries?  Or maybe it's just me.)

The Gatekeepers has Sony Picture Classics and a Facebook page.  Sugar Man is also from SPC and has almost 25,000 likes on FB.  A number also met by The Invisible War which has an obscure distributor.  How to Survive a Plague is a Sundance Selects release, and has almost 10,000 likes on FB.  Okay, it feels weird to be discussing FB likes, but it's relevant, no?  

5 Broken Cameras and The Gatekeepers seem to be out, based on all the evidence available.  Sugar Man is obviously the lazy guess, with The Invisible War being a possible upset.  Kirby Dick has made quite a name for himself, having already been nominated for Twist of Faith, as well as being behind such exposes as Outrage and This Film Is Not Yet Rated.  Sugar Man director Malik Bendjelloul is on his first feature length which is produced by Oscar winner Simon Chinn (Man on Wire).

What Does Gold Derby Say?
They're all going for Sugar Man, predictably, except for Rosen (How to Survive a Plague) and Simanton (The Invisible War).

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Best Live Action Short Oscar 2012 Prediciton: Curfew

Again, like a lot of the animated shorts, the live action short selections are very lopsided gender-wise.  I watched the trailers for all five, and Asad and Buzkashi Boys seem to be the ones that might be the most moving, though they're similar in that they both have Western filmmakers depicting the dire lives of third-world boys.  Last year, the lighthearted Irish short The Shore won.  It was middling on the IMDb in comparison to its competition and it wasn't a festival favorite either.  I have no idea if the fact that its creator Terry George was twice-nominated for screenwriting features in the past played a role, besides the story being about two old friends being reunited after a quarter-of-a-century.  The year before, The New Tenants was fourth on the IMDb rating scale, directed by a commercial director, featuring Hollywood actors.  A German director won for the World War II drama Toyland.  The beloved God of Love didn't have a war setting, but it did have love darts.  In the Oscar-winning Spanish/French crime comedy Le Mozart des pickpockets, two street urchins take a young boy under their wings.  West Bank Story featured Israeli and Palestinian star-crossed lovers in a fast food musical comedy and won in this category.  This year, Curfew is the popular favorite, but Death of a Shadow may be the most distinct.

Asad 
[IMDb: 7.3, 180 users; 1 review: 7.0]
Asad has won at multiple festivals and its director Bryan Buckley has won a DGA award for directing commercials.  Asad involves a young Somali boys in a survival tale with cast completely made up of unprofessional refuges.  You can watch the trailer here. His partner Mino Jarjouri produced.

Buzkashi Boys
[IMDb: 6.9, 146 users; 2 reviews: 8.0]
Sam French won multiple festivals with his short about two boys in Kabul with differing hopes and dreams.  Looks awfully touching.  You can watch the trailer here.  Ariel Nasr produced.

Curfew
[IMDb: 7.7, 220 users; 2 reviews: 7.5]
Shawn Christensen has won a slew of awards on the festival route and he's arguably the IMDb and Gold Derby favorite.  Curfew concerns a fuck-up who develops a relationship with his niece.  You can watch the trailer here, which features the cool song "Trust" by Alexander.  Christensen wrote the screenplay to the Taylor Lautner flop Abduction.  The subject matter almost makes me not want to predict it, but, from the trailers, strikes me as the most solid and distinguished of the five.  It also has the biggest presence on Facebook.

Death of a Shadow
[IMDb: 7.2, 192 users; 2 reviews: 8.5]
Tom Van Avermaet has won one festival with his short.  This cinematically filmed story about a World War I-era man who collects shadows seems to be the most technically proficient, suggesting eclectic shades of Jean-Pierre Jeunet.  You probably should watch the trailer here for a better understanding.  It looks original, but could it be too cryptic?  Ellen De Waele produced.  It would probably be my alternate guess.

Henry
[IMDb: 7.0, 151 users; 2 reviews: 9.0]
Yan England has won many awards for previous short Moi.  Henry takes you into the mind of a man suffering from dementia lamenting his lost love.  I think.  Might Henry get the Amour vote?  You can watch the full short here.  England is super hot and is also an actor on the French-Canadian TV series Trauma and Yamaska.

What does Gold Derby have to say?
There is something for everyone.  Most of them are picking Curfew, which was my guess (as well as the lazy choice) before I looked them up.  Death of a Shadow has three pundits behind it: Geler, Lodge, and Pond.  Buzkashi Boys has two: Hammond and Horgan.  Tariq Khan is going out on a limb for Henry and Scott Feinberg is sticking with Asad.

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Best Documentary Short Oscar 2012 Prediction: Inocente

With the IMDb rating system and so few people having voted (especially compared to the Live Action and Animated shorts), it seems kind of pointless to relay those statistics for these purposes as I just did with the Animated shorts.  Before looking at the Gold Derby pundits, I figured the race was between Inocente and Mondays at Racine with the edge to the former.  Upon looking at their guesses, I stumbled upon a hot mess.  The popular choice is Open Heart with half of the twenty experts behind it.  Next in line would be Inocente, with five votes (Feinberg, Geler, Khan, Thompson, Whipp), though it would probably be six if Sasha Stone was still on board.  With three calls (Horgan, Rosen, Simanton), Kings Points makes it in.  Mondays at Racine has two key prognosticators: Hammond and Lodge.  Not surprisingly, no one is predicting Redemption.  I'm left still torn between my initial instincts with no inclination to choose Open Heart.  It really could either be Inocente or Racine, but I'll stick with my gut and say Inocente.

Inocente
A teenager uses art to escape the dire circumstances of being homeless.  The MTV short has a pretty prevalent presence in social media.  Watch a five minute spot in Spanish here.  Directors Sean Fine and Andrea Nix have been nominated before for War Dance.

Mondays at Racine 
A Long Island hair salon run by two sisters puts aside one day of every month for women diagnosed with cancer.  Director Cynthia Wade has been recognized for numerous documentaries and shorts, including winning an Oscar for Freeheld, which almost got made into a film starring Ellen Page.

Open Heart
Kief Davidson's short deals with children from Rwanda traveling to Sudan seeking heart surgeries for problems initially caused by minor illnesses.


Kings Point
Sari Gilman's retirement home comedy short about residents dealing with loss and love in their twilight years.


Redemption
Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill were previously nominated for China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province.  This time, they examine the men and women of our society who survive by collecting discarded bottles and cans.  Out of all five nominees, this entry has the poorest presence in social media and on the internet.

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Best Animated Short Oscar 2012 Prediction: Paperman

I've watched all five animated shorts nominated for Oscar this year.  Have you?  You can scavenge for them on the internet.  I also highlighted each respective title with a link that will take you to each one to save you the trouble.  Of course, it would be better if we paid to see these in the theater, so I feel kind of guilty doing this.  If you don't want to bother yourself, you can read on to my thoughts.  But, it would only take about a half hour or so of your time.  They are all different in enough ways and interesting to watch.  I have to say, though, with the exception of Maggie Simpson and Fresh Guacamole, the more ambitious stories are all very male-focused.  Not that there's anything wrong with that.  Just an observation.


Adam and Dog
Won the Annie.
[IMDb: 7.1; 511 users; 5 reviews averaging 8.6]
Minkyu Lee's wild-life short bursts of painterly water color with a quasi-Asian influence and concerns the friendship between a nude man in the wild and a young pup.  Apparently, on further reading, it's also an origins story set in the Garden of Eden.  Probably the one that you have to do the most work on.  I'm pretty sure the nudity will be too much for the weary AMPAS.  Lee worked on Wreck-It Ralph.

Fresh Guacamole
No previous awards.
Five GD predicting (Geler, Horgan, Lodge, Simanton, Thompson)
[IMDb: 7.2; 737 users; 5 reviews averaging 7.0]
Abstract claymated lesson directed by PES about making the delicious snack with board game references as ingredients.  PES has been honored by festivals before for his Western Spaghetti and Roof Sex.  Have you seen Roof Sex?  YOU MUST WATCH ROOF SEX!  It's brilliant and only takes but a minute.  Guacamole is also much shorter than the other four, and, though clever, may lack a scope Oscar may want to honor.  Who knows.

Head Over Heels 
Nominated for multiple awards, including the Annie, winning some festivals.
Three GD predicting (Hammond, Kahn, Pond)
[IMDb: 7.2; 460 users; 2 reviews averaging 7.5]
Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O'Reillys' super-sweet claymated commentary on the evolution of relationships about a couple living in a house flying through the air, then landing upside down.  Style of storytelling reminiscent of Up.  Perhaps it will get the Amour vote?  Though, I do wonder ... LOL ... if the female protagonist is a magic pixie dream lady.  Sorry, have that term on my brain lately.  Did I say that it was really sweet?

Paperman [sorry the link takes you to Perez Hilton]
Won the Annie.
Twelve Gold Derby pundits predicting (All the rest)
[IMDb: 8.2; 4,660 users; 15 reviews averaging 8.8]
John Kahrs black and white Disney short about a guy with a big nose in the big city who flirts with an attractive, slim woman by constructing paper airplanes.  Well-edited, whimsical, and sweet, it's a bit of an homage to The Red Balloon with some kismet thrown in.  This is the clear favorite on IMDb and Gold Derby.  It's simple, clean, and swiftly executed.  It's also safe.  Perhaps it will get the Silver Linings Playbook vote?   Kahrs has a history with Pixar.

The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare
Nominated for the Annie.
[IMDb: 7.2; 998 users; 5 reviewing averaging 7.6]
Maggie Simpson, who is just as precocious as her sister Lisa, stars in David Silverman's short of one of the world's most famous animated families as a tot in a daycare designed for the gifted.  She finds her calling as a butterfly whisperer, while up against an angst-ridden nemesis her own age with cold, detached artistic sensibilities.  The short introduces possible new cartoons for the long-running series (if they didn't exist already).  Silverman has an extensive history with the franchise.

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Best Animated Feature Oscar 2012 Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph

How are you doing with predictions thus far this Oscar Season?  When people say that this is the most unpredictable year in ages, they aren't kidding.  More categories than not have two or more serious contenders which they could make a sound and logical argument for.  Best Animated Feature is one of those categories, because, when you look at history and stats, there just isn't a common thread to be found.  The tradition for the last ten or so years has been following box-office, reviews, and awards.  Recent previous races have made it all too easy to predict, as there have been animated features that either were or came close to being Best Picture nominees, as well as scooping up a screenplay nod and/or technical recognition, like Shrek, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, Wall-E, Up, and Toy Story 3.  Real slam-dunk types that both hit above a 95% RT, as well as cleaned up at the box-office.  There was really no questioning their chances.  Other years had their own variations.  Spirited Away made little at the box-office, but it had no critical competition, and it was a way to honor highly respected artist Hayao Miyazaki who has been working in the industry for decades.  A similar situation arose with Peter Lord and Nick Park when they released another Wallace & Gromit feature in 2005.  Last year wasn't cut and dried, as all five nominees landed an RT score in the 80-something range.  Rango stood slightly above the others, but its box-office was still behind Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots.  However, considering it took every major precursor but the Golden Globe (which went to a film not nominated for Oscar), it was still pretty inevitable that Rango would win.

Things got the murkiest, however, in 2006.  You had three films that received solid, but unenthusiastic reviews, with Happy Feet and Cars doing exceptional box-office over Monster House.  Cars received an extra nod for song and took the Golden Globe, and even took as many or more critical awards than the other two, but Feet, armed with BAFTA, Online, Dallas-Fort Worth, DC, LA, and Toronto, was honored on Oscar night for Best Animated Feature.  It was probably the hardest year to predict up until now.

This year, we have every nominee landing in the RT 85 - 88% range, with the exception of Pixar's Brave, which is below at 78%.  Yet, it was Brave that took both the BAFTA (Ralph wasn't nominated) and the Golden Globe, the only honors its received this season for Best Animated Feature (but the big ones).  Though, the Globe is not the most reliable indicator in challenging years.  Anne Thompson and Brad Brevet are predicting the movie to win, but with no nod even for its song "Learn Me Right," one might theorize that support for the highest grossing nominee ($237M) is soft.  The only other commercial juggernaut is Wreck-It Ralph, which, at 85%, wasn't received critically that different than the rest.  Yet, it too didn't get nominated for its song, "When Can I See You Again?"  Is that necessary a game changer?  I haven't seen most of the nominees, but, from a marketing standpoint, Ralph doesn't exactly have the prestige factor as Brave, does it?

Let's look at the track record for various groups.  In the last eleven years, the Online and Dallas-Forth Worth Critics' winner has gone on to Oscar eleven times.  This year, Online went with the anti-bullying movie ParaNorman and the other chose Ralph.  Rich Moore's Ralph is backed up by Dallas-Fort Worth, BFCA, NBR, and Austin.  The DC Critics are on eight-in-a-row and chose ParaNorman.  Chicago also went with the film and have an impeccable track record, but they didn't start awarding animated features until right after the most challenging year before now.  In fact, the only other groups that recognized Happy Feet were LA and Toronto, who both have very poor track records on predictions.  This year, Toronto went with ParaNorman and the other Frankenweenie.  Along with The Pirates, they are all stop-motion animated features.  South Eastern, Central Ohio, San Diego, San Francisco, and Las Vegas all went with ParaNorman this year.  Five Gold Derby experts (Atchity, Horgan, Lodge, Suskind, and new addition Ramin Setoodeh--you know, the guy who writes all of those thought-provoking, homophobic articles for Newsweek/Daily Beast) are calling Tim Burton film for a win, believing that the AMPAS will finally single him out personally and recognize him for his animated work.  The feature expands on one of Burton's early shorts coming out of Cal Arts, and has the whole "full circle" effect.  Its backed up by Kansas City, Florida, Boston, LA.

Obviously, no one is predicting The Pirates, though Lodge strangely has it in fourth.  And, in another bit of strangeness, not one pundit has predicted Chris Butler's first writing/directing feature ParaNorman in first or second.  It almost makes me want to predict the film to win. But, then, there doesn't seem to be a plausible argument to be made that the AMPAS would go for ParaNorman over Frankenweenie.

It seems like this is a year where statistics are thrown out the window and it's anybody's game.  But, when given the choice, the AMPAS don't seem to go for the dark, haunted genre, as they didn't with Corpse Bride or Monster House.  But, would they really go for a movie like Ralph based on a video game?  Is Shrek, being a blunt green ogre, the model here?  Ralph is the popular choice (all of the rest of the Gold Derby pundits have followed suit), but I'm almost tempted to go out on a whim and predict that the AMPAS, commercial success be damned, will choose to honor stop-motion animation this year, but not necessarily Tim Burton.  Focus Features only has Anna Karenina and Moonrise Kingdom this year in limited contention.  Could it be that they might spend their money pushing ParaNorman?  It would be a gamble.  So, if you want to play it safe, which might be the best path to take with this category, I'd suggest sticking with Ralph, which is, I guess what I'm going to do.

Wreck-It Ralph  30%
ParaNorman       27.5%
Frankenweenie   22.5%
Brave                  20%
The Pirates         0%

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Best Score 2012 Oscar Prediction: Life of Pi

The Golden Globes are a great indicator of what film will win best score for Oscar.  The victor often goes on to more gold.  Occasionally, they don't get nominated by the AMPAS and a winner must be found elsewhere.  However, this year's winner, Life of Pi's Mychael Danna, hails from a Best Picture nominee which accumulated eleven nods total.  A great start.

Sometimes the choices are unconventional like Round Midnight and The Red Violin.  The only recent exceptions to the Golden Globe rule were Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon prevailing over BP-winner Gladiator and Brokeback Mountain also beat Memoirs of a Geisha.  Golden Globe winner Hans Zimmer was on his seventh nod with one win the evening Gladiator took five Oscars in a year Oscar spread the wealth.  Tan Dun, having been nominated also for Best Song that night, won four of Crouching Tiger's victories.  Incidentally, we are in another year where several films will probably win a few statues, and like Dun, Danna is also on his first two nominations the same year for an Ang Lee film that will likely be generously rewarded (he is also recognized for Best Song).  Gustavo Santaolalla, who would win his second the next year, got Ang Lee's Brokeback Mountain one of its three wins over multiple-winning John Williams for Memoirs, which ended up winning four as it were, in yet another year where there was no one film railroading the competition.  In the last thirty years, only two other films have won the Globe and got nominated for Oscar only to lose: Gorillas in the Mist and The Mission.

Dario Marianelli (Anna Karenina) is on his third nomination, all for Joe Wright films, having won for Atonement.  Alexandre Desplat (Argo) is on his fifth nod with no win--all for different directors.  Thomas Newman (Skyfall) is on his eleventh nomination with no wins.  Williams, who gets recognized for just about everything he scores for Steven Spielberg, is on his record 48th nomination.  Ridiculous, right?  He's had five wins, the last being for Schindler's List.  His very first nomination was for Valley of the Dolls, as auspicious designation that also couples with Richard Dreyfuss' film debut.

Could this be the third Lee film to get best score?  The smart money is on Pi, but likely BP winner Argo, looking for wins in the very few areas it can secure them, could possibly take this category also.  Skyfall, the likely winner for Best Song, could also finally reward Newman with the honor.  Most of the Gold Derby gang is going for Pi.  Anne Thompson and Keith Simanton have Argo.  Inexplicably or perhaps not, a grip has Lincoln for the win (Matt Atchity, Richard Horgan, Kevin Polowy, Paul Sheehan, Chuck Walton, Susan Wloszczyna).  I'll throw up if that happens.  Strangely, no one has Skyfall pegged as the victor, which almost makes me want to predict it.  Do you dare me?

Life of Pi 45%
Argo 30%
Skyfall 20%
Lincoln 2.5%
Anna Karenina 2.5%

What are your thoughts?

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Sarah Stop!

Well, it's February.  We've already had the Golden Globes, the DGA, PGA, SAG, and BFCA.  And, last night, we had the BAFTA's and Grammys.  There are less than two weeks left.  We have Team Argo, the Cult of Lincoln, and Silver Linings Playbook lovers.  Chris Brown was on his best behavior at the Staples Center on Sunday as Rihanna's date (even though he refused to join the standing ovation for parking-space enemy Frank Ocean).  Someone had to create trouble.  What a classier place than the W Hotel.  We've got one dragging the other like a cavewoman, both of them almost losing their tops.  As the poster of this video titled the footage, "Some girls just can't handle awards month."

[Via Dlisted]

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Hathaway in the Final Stretch

They say that the hardest part of running a marathon is the last 0.2 miles of the 26.2 mile length.  I can't really say.  It has been over a decade since I've run one.  I've completed marathons where the last 13.1 miles were hell and I had to pull my depleted body over the finish line.  I've run others where I sailed across the final marker like some kind of fucking pimp daddy who was out for an afternoon stroll.  It all depends on how well you train, mostly.  The race is kind of an afterthought.  Speaking of which, winning an Oscar for playing Fantine was kind of an afterthought when Anne Hathaway first heard about the film adaptation getting the green light.  We are at that place in the race where we found Grandma Smurf this past Sunday sitting at the end of her bed in pajamas at the Loews Hollywood Hotel behind the Dolby Theater with a fag dangling out of her mouth and channel surfing for the BAFTA's.  "Joshua, where the fuck are you?  I can't find any British stations."  The young sprite broke the bad news to her after informing her that England was eight hours ahead, the ceremony was over, and the results were accessible on the internet.  He then preemptively ducked out of the room before she started grabbing items from the Mini-bar and throwing them at the television.

You see, Ms. Princess Diaries III is about at the 26.0-mile mark.  When George Clooney uttered her royal syllables in London on Sunday, she played the role of shocked recipient so well, she gave Kelly Clarkson's actually genuine reaction to winning a Grammy that same night a run for her money.  Little Oscared Annie kissed her husband, received props from Sally Field and someone who looked like Helena Bonham Carter, while walking up to the podium in her admittedly cute Burberry dress.  Bitch almost forgot to cash in on a warm embrace from the hottest man on the planet before she gave her speech.  She tried to make jokes again, like threatening to sing and giving a shout out to costar Eddie Redmayne who apparently had it coming out of both ends somewhere in the city thanks to food poisoning (or just expressing himself about Anne's win).  She acknowledged [her] cast and crew, hair and makeup artist Paul Gooch who had to play therapist to her whiny ass while doing up her face, her director, leading man, the studios, and producer Deborah Hayward.  This time, she decided to acknowledge all of the people responsible for Les Misérables before it was a movie, like the team behind the musical and then Victor Hugo, of course, who wrote the novel.  She ended with, "Thank you so much honey, I love you."  I'm assuming she was talking about her husband and not Hugo.  Unless she's into 19th-century French skeletons.  Is she going method for a possible role in Mr. and Mrs. Comfort?

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Best Original Screenplay 2012 Oscar Prediction: Amour

So, I'm thinking the art of prognosticating the Oscars is to stick with history, logic, and group-think on most categories, and stretch your neck out on a couple of races that may be worth the gamble.  Original Screenplay is going to be one of those for me.  This is an especially tough category, because there is just no easy guess in foresight.  Zero Dark Thirty has been the favorite of many (including myself), as well as the easiest to predict for a win.  If it wins on Oscar night, I will be happy to be wrong.  Kathryn Bigelow's challenging, intense action-war-drama is based on film partner Mark Boal's whip-smart screenplay.  There is no more deserving 2012 film of this win than Thirty, not nominated or not.  But, the torture controversy drummed up by reactionary liberals in December not only sidelined the momentum it was gaining with critics, but railroaded its Oscar heat and quite possibly shut it out from any wins.  There seems to be some regret from the knee-jerk outcries with celebrities like Martin Sheen publicly distancing himself from ever being attached to the detracting of the film.  But, I do wonder if any kind of buyer's remorse truly exists.  Critical groups which singled out Boal for his screenplay include: Chicago, Dallas-Forth Worth, San Francisco, Vancouver, and the Satellite Awards.  He's gotten nominated for just about everything else.  The WGA hasn't announced their picks and they will likely go with Thirty, but the victory will carry little weight having no competition from its main Oscar rivals, Django Unchained and Amour.

Now, why would one predict Django?  There are tons of reasons.  Quentin Tarantino's screenplay has taken the lion's share of precursors, major (Golden Globe, BAFTA, BFCA) and been nominated for the minor ones (Chicago, DC, San Diego, Dallas-Forth Worth, Vancouver London).  Django has done exceptionally well at the box-office, grossing over $150M domestically and double that worldwide.  Tarantino, one of the few writer/director Hollywood icons working today, hasn't won an Oscar since 1994's Pulp Fiction.  Part of my challenge with examining passing him over is my bias against the film, which is enormous.  Loved the first hour, detested the last two.  Just shoddy.  I couldn't get out of the theater soon enough.  If I get it wrong, who cares.  One element that gives me some pause, however, is the comic-violent content.  And it did seem to catch some flack, warranted or otherwise, for its use of the n-bomb.  In 2009, the similar Inglourious Basterds faced stiffer competition with eventual Best Picture winner The Hurt Locker from the Bigelow/Boal team.  Have the tables turned?  The AMPAS had no problem with No Country for Old Men or The Departed.

However, one of the elements Oscar voters love about films is to be moved emotionally.  I'm not you're average person, so what brings tears to my eyes isn't necessarily going to resonate with others.  However, I'm not totally out of touch, and if there is one film in this category that got to me, as it did others, it was Amour.  I ugly cried towards the end like I don't remember.  I sobbed a great deal during Les Misérables, but it was more constant and tempered, for lack of a better word.  With Amour, it hit me out of nowhere, and it was sharp, deep, and unmanageable, and still resonated with me as the credits began rolling.  Alas, none of the other films in contention in this category were really designed to bring about such emotions.  Moonrise was sweet and nostalgic. Zero was an unrelenting, sobering procedural with a final shot that stirred emotions in a partly cerebral context.  Flight moved some, but not nearly enough for me and just wasn't my cup of tea.  Django wanted to resonate emotionally with audiences while it reframed history, but it just failed on so many levels.  Others will disagree. The AMPAS just may go for Amour.  In such an uncertain year it's kind of hard to imagine that Amour will only go home with one Oscar (for Foreign Language film).  Some are predicting its leading lady Emmanuelle Riva.  Others Michael Haneke for screenplay.  Even others are suggesting he may land the directing Oscar.  My thoughts are that in order for that to happen, he first has to scoop up screenplay.  So, in a way, I'm curbing my losses while playing the odds.  Or something like that.  If Amour takes more than one Oscar, I'm thinking this is the place it starts.

But, don't forget that Amour has been nominated for very little and has even won less.  Django just recently beat the movie for screenwriting at BAFTA.  Only London has awarded Haneke for his writing skills.  And, further, don't forget that Amour is a foreign language film and has only grossed $3M.  Not even A Separation, as great as it was, could win Best Screenplay, last year.  In the last thirty-two years, Talk to Her was the only foreign language film to take a screenplay award.  It has been only one of three films to gross less than $10M at the box-office along with Gods and Monsters and Tender Mercies (which adjusted for inflation, I'm sure would be much greater).  Basically, Amour has next to nothing going for it in terms of winning, but I'm going for it.  Just a hunch.  We'll see if it pays off.  I know I may very well regret wasting a guess.

Moonrise has been nominated by WGA, BAFTA, BFCA, New York, Chicago, Boston, DC, San Diego, and Independent Spirit (not awarded yet).  Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola won Phoenix, Central Ohio, Southeaster, and Online.  I was convinced Moonrise was going to be nominated for BP.  Does it still have a chance at a win?  Flight's John Gatins was nominated by BFCA and WGA.

Gold Derby is still on the Zero Dark Thirty kick, though it may change with Django's recent BAFTA win.  So far, Zero still has Thelma Adams, Matt Atchity, Edward Douglas, Thom Geler, Michael Hogan, Kevin Polowy, Steve Pond, Alex Suskind, Chuck Walton, Jeff Wells, and Susan Wloszczyna, though I imagine some of them will jump ship and join Richard Horgan, Michael Musto, Tom O'Neill, Christopher Rosen, Paul Sheehan, Keith Simanton, and Peter Travers for Django.  Pete Hammond, Dave Karger, Tariq Khan, Guy Lodge, Sasha Stone, Anne Thompson, and Glenn Whipp are also calling Amour.

By percentages:

Amour 42.5%
Django Unchained 40%
Zero Dark Thirty 15%
Moonrise Kingdom 2.5%
Flight 0%

What are your thoughts?

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Best Cinematography 2012 Oscar Prediction: Life of Pi

Looking to the critic groups and guilds for predicting the cinematography category at the Oscars is far from an exact science.  A prime example of lacking any guidance would be 2011.  Oscars can shower you with nominations, but never care to pay you a win, even when every group out there is suggesting the such.  Nominated for his fifth nomination last year with no wins, Emmanuel Lubezki's camerawork in The Tree of Life swept up just about every honor out there, only to lose to Robert Richardson for Hugo, which had only been recognized by the London Critics.  Richardson was on his seventh (out of eight) times with already two wins under his belt to erase any kind of notion of being overdue.  Roger Deakins, who has racked up ten nods without taking home the gold, is another cinematographer who had often taken a slew of precursors (Kundun, The Man Who Wasn't There, True Grit) only to lose, sometimes not even being nominated (Barton Fink).  Edward Lachman (Far From Heaven) and two-time winner John Toll (The Thin Red Line) were also early favorites who faltered.

Claudio Miranda

This year's nominees are frontrunner Claudio Miranda on his second nomination (Life of Pi), perennial nominees Deakins (Skyfall), Richardson (Django Unchained), and Janusz Kaminski (Lincoln).  Seamus McGarvey (Anna Karenina) is on his second nod, both of them for Joe Wright films.  Kaminski has been nominated six times, for mostly Steven Spielberg films, having won for two.  Recognized by the NSFC, Boston, and Chicago, Mihai Malaimare Jr (The Master) was left out of the mix.  Also omitted was Greig Fraser (Zero Dark Thirty), who was singled out by the NYC critics.  LA, Central Ohio, Florida, and Online chose Deakins.  Everyone else went for Miranda.  I haven't seen Skyfall or Anna Karenina, but Pi was definitely a visual standout.  Generally speaking, however, the future best cinematographer winner usually takes home an accolade or a handful before their name is called. Vegas, who chose Pi, is generally on the money in predictions.  ASC, also pretty accurate, will choose their winner along with BAFTA tomorrow on the 10th of February.  Will they go for Pi or stir things up by choosing another film entirely?  BAFTA and ASC both left out Richardson for Danny Cohen (Les Misérables).

Most of the Gold Derby pundits are going for Pi with the exception of those aligning with Skyfall (Matt Atchity, Christopher Rosen, Peter Travers, Chuck Walton) and Paul Sheehan (Lincoln).  I'd also call it for Pi with a possible Skyfall upset.  But, why would the AMPAS go for Deakins this year versus previously?  Also consider that aside from Visual Effects, this is one of the categories Pi is most competitive in.  If I were to break it down by percentages:

Life of Pi 75%
Skyfall 20%
Lincoln 5%
Anna Karenina 0%
Django Unchained 0%

What are your thoughts?

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Best Editing 2012 Oscar Prediction: Argo

Before Argo began to take over the awards race this season, it was still fast becoming a favorite in this category.  The nominees include BP nominees Argo (Phoenix, San Diego), Zero Dark Thirty (BFCA, LA, Boston, Las Vegas), Lincoln, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook.  Cloud Atlas (Online) was left out.  William Goldenberg will likely collect his first Oscar after four nominations (including Zero Dark Thirty with Dylan Tichenor on his second nod).  Ang Lee editor Tim Squyres is also on his second nod, as well as Jay Cassidy, who coedited Playbook with Crispin Struthers.  With eight nominations, all three of Michael Kahn's wins have come from Steven Spielberg.  The BAFTA recognitions will be awarded on February 10th; and, on the 16th, ACE (often an influential determining factor) will present their Eddies.  BAFTA opted to nominate Django Unchained and Skyfall over Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook.  In the Dramatic category, ACE chose Skyfall over Silver Linings Playbook.

A brief year by year rundown of slightly more than a decade of past races:

2011
Previous year's winner Angus Wall for the non-BP nominee The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (BAFTA) pulled a victory over best picture nominees The Artist (ACE, Phoenix), The Descendants (ACE), Hugo, and Moneyball, with only a win from BFCA.  Not nominated: The Tree of Life (Online), Beginners (San Diego), The Clock (Boston), and Senna (BAFTA).

2010
The Social Network (ACE, BAFTA) prevailed over best picture nominees Black Swan (Boston), The King's Speech, The Fighter, and 127 Hours.  Surprisingly not nominated was previous nominee Lee Smith for Inception (BFCA, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Online).  Seems like a nomination would have been a slam-dunk for a win.  Also not nominated were Alice in Wonderland (ACE) and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (San Diego).

2009
The Hurt Locker (ACE, BAFTA, Boston, Las Vegas, Online) predictably won over best picture nominees Avatar (BFCA, Phoenix), Inglorious Basterds, Precious, and District 9.  Not nominated: (500) Days of Summer (San Diego), and The Hangover (ACE).

2008
Slumdog Millionaire (ACE, BAFTA, Phoenix, Boston, San Diego, Online), without breaking a sweat annihilated best picture nominees Frost/Nixon (Las Vegas), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Milk, as well as The Dark Knight.  Wall*E (ACE) was not nominated.

2007
Armed with a healthy combination of precursors, The Bourne Ultimatum (ACE, BAFTA, Las Vegas) took the editing prize over the dark BP nominees No Country For Old Men (Phoenix, Online) and There Will Be Blood, as well as Into the Wild and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.  Not nominated: Atonement (San Diego) and Sweeney Todd (ACE).

2006
In a somewhat unpredictable year, The Departed (Las Vegas, Phoenix) won over its main competition United 93 (BAFTA, San Diego, Online), as well as Babel (ACE), Blood Diamond and Children of Men.  Dreamgirls (ACE) was not nominated.

2005
With a sign of what was to come on Oscar night, Crash (ACE) won editing as one of its few wins over The Constant Gardener (BAFTA), Walk the Line (ACE), Munich, and Cinderella Man.  Not nominated: A History of Violence (San Diego), King Kong (Las Vegas), and Sin City (Phoenix, Online).  People were surprised that Brokeback Mountain didn't win Best Picture, but, was this category the first clue?

2004
In another indecisive year, The Aviator (ACE, Las Vegas) beat Million Dollar Baby, Ray (ACE), Finding Neverland, and Collateral.  Similar to Inception, Eternal Sunshine (BAFTA, Phoenix, San Diego, Online) was inexplicably left out of the category.

2003
In a clean sweep, years in the making, LOTR III (ACE, Phoenix) took editing as one of its many Oscars over Master and Commander, Seabiscuit, Cold Mountain, and City of God.  Not nominated: Kill Bill: Vol. 1 (San Diego, Las Vegas), Lost in Translation (BAFTA), and Pirates of the Caribbean (ACE).

2002
In the rare year that reflected the BP race exactly, Chicago (ACE, Phoenix) won many of its categories including this instead of Gangs of New York (ACE), LOTR II (Online, Las Vegas), The Hours, and The Pianist.  Not nominated: City of God (BAFTA) and Thirteen Conversations About One Thing (San Diego).

2001
Non-BP nominee Black Hawk Down (ACE) beat A Beautiful Mind, LOTR I, Moulin Rouge! (ACE), and Memento (Las Vegas, Phoenix).  Not nominated: Mulholland Dr (BAFTA).

2000
Stephen Mirrione, who is busy cutting August: Osage County won for Traffic over Gladiator (ACE, BAFTA, Las Vegas), Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Almost Famous (ACE), and Wonder Boys.

1999
The Matrix (ACE) won over BP nominees American Beauty (BAFTA), The Cider House Rules, The Insider, and The Sixth Sense.  Not nominated: Being John Malkovich (ACE, Las Vegas) and Requiem for a Dream (Phoenix, Online).

1998
Saving Private Ryan (ACE, Online) managed to beat Shakespeare in Love (BAFTA) only a few times, including editing.  It also won over Life Is Beautiful, The Thin Red Line, and Out of Sight.

William Goldenberg

The editing Oscar generally goes to the eventual Best Picture winner or runner-up.  Sometimes, in the case of action films like Black Hawk Down, The Bourne Ultimatum, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and The Matrix, rules are broken.  If it weren't the torture controversy, Zero Dark Thirty might have prevailed over Argo and gone on to win this category.  My personal tastes predispose me to Kathryn Bigelow's film.  Its unrelenting pace and lean editing were superb.  To a lesser extent, Argo was successful as an action thriller.  I find it difficult to judge editing outside of such genres, but I know I wouldn't be the only one to say that Lincoln need to sharp pair of scissors.  Most Gold Derby pundits are calling Argo, with the exception of Lincoln loyalists Thom Geler and Sasha Stone.  My take on the percent breakdown of Oscar chances:

Argo 70%
Zero Dark Thirty 15%
Lincoln 10%
Life of Pi 5%
Silver Linings Playbook 0%

What are your thoughts?  Does Argo have this one in the bag?  If it's going to win Best Picture, it's going to need all the wins it can get.  Could Zero Dark Thirty manage a pity win?

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