Oscar Odds: Less Than Five Weeks To Go

Less than five weeks to Oscar, and here's my unscientific take on the big categories.  Of course, things could/will change towards the end of January/early February, once PGA (Lincoln vs. Argo), SAG (Lincoln vs. Argo / Silver Linings Playbook), and DGA (Lincoln vs. Argo) are decided upon, though I don't foresee the landscape changing dramatically unless a real wrench is thrown into the works, like a Life of Pi or Les Misérables win (or Silver Linings winning outside of SAG or Argo winning all three).  Generally, the Oscars are more predictable, with 75% of the big eight winners already a done deal.  This year, however, there's some activity in every other category (and then some).  If I laid down big money right now, I'd only commit to Best Actor and Supporting Actress.  That's 25%.  Talk about a flip-flop from years past.  It's exciting, though, no?  A real race, for a change.  From easiest to hardest to call: Supporting Actress > Actor > Director > Adapted Screenplay > Picture > Actress > Original Screenplay > Supporting Actor.

Best Picture
40% Lincoln.  The frontrunner, whether we like it or not.
30% Argo.  The possible upset, whether we like it or not.
15% Life of Pi.  The place of the truly unexpected, if the AMPAS want to go there.
10% Silver Linings Playbook.  What can Harvey do with a non-period film?  Certainly, its release strategy is shrewd, but is that really going to put it overt the top?  Everything seems so "possible" right now, because it just had what will be its highest grossing weekend.
5%   Les Misérables.  The AMPAS can mostly hear the detractors sing.
0%   Zero Dark Thirty.  The brainless contingent of the liberal faction made sure Zero is at 0%.
0%   Amour.  The subject matter alone isn't enough for contention.
0%   Beasts of the Southern Wild.  Only in a fan's wildest dreams?
0%   Django Unchained.

Best Director
60% Steven Spielberg
25% Ang Lee
10% David O. Russell
5%   Michael Haneke
0%   Benh Zeitlin

Three Oscars for Spielberg seem kind of shaky right now, because so many people are suggesting so.  But, come on.  $160M+ and counting for a film about "ideas," with the central character part of Americana culture.  Good luck, Ang Lee, but Spielberg losing at this point seems almost like wishful thinking.

Best Actress
45% Jennifer Lawrence
40% Jessica Chastain
10% Emmanuelle Riva
5%   Naomi Watts
0%   Quvenzhané Wallis

Lawrence has been the frontrunner since her film won the Audience Award at TIFF, but the enthusiasm has always been in check.  Some found her recent SNL monologue to have placed her in a precarious position, especially in the context of Jessica Chastain having the #1 and #2 movies of the weekend (crazy, right?).  Since September, like many, my default has always been to go with Lawrence, but Chastain could still easily sneak in.  This is going to be one of those "hindsight is 20/20" wins, I believe.  I think it's cute that some believe Riva has a chance.  Good luck with that.  Will the AMPAS recognize her for her performance?  They certainly didn't with Imelda Staunton eight years ago.  But, it can only happen if they decide that they are not ready to reward Lawrence or Chastain.  I can't say they are.  Surely, they find one of them worthy.  And, I'm subscribing to the silly belief that Watts can't win with such battier projects on the near horizon.  Like that means anything.  This race is probably closer than I'm willing to admit.  I see Lawrence having a long career, which seems less possible with an early win for a "lightweight" performance.  But, if Gwyneth Paltrow can do it ...

Best Actor
90%    Daniel Day-Lewis
7.5%   Hugh Jackman
2.5%   Joaquin Phoenix
0%      Denzel Washington
0%      Bradley Cooper

This officially became a threepeat question for Day-Lewis when The Master stumbled at the box-office, Phoenix opened his mouth, and Day-Lewis landed the cover of Time magazine.  Now the best performance of the year has become "the nomination is the reward."  Wow.  Phoenix likes to learn things the hard way.  The fact that he made a joke of himself with the whole "retirement" and "hip-hop documentary," already had him in the category of "the fact that you're still working is the reward."  But, by the unlikely chance that Jackman won, that would present two former Oscar hosts winning on the same evening.  And Day-Lewis won only five years ago ...

Best Supporting Actress
95%  Anne Hathaway
2.5% Sally Field
2.5% Amy Adams
0%    Helen Hunt
0%    Jacki Weaver

So, I've been blabbering on and on about how Anne is winning Oscar this year.  I would be lying if I didn't said I *almost* broke a sweat a few weeks ago.  Not saying that I did, but I did notice the temperature creeping up a degree or two suddenly.  I threw Hathaway into the Catherine Zeta-Jones/Jennifer Hudson pool early on, but then I never stopped to consider how she was going to handle herself.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but Zeta-Jones and Hudson conducted themselves quite well during their awards season, no?  Pure professionals, right?  I didn't stop to consider that this wouldn't be happening with Anne.  It didn't dawn on me that once Anne started winning all these awards that Ugly Anne who makes us cringe (as opposed to Charming and Talented Anne who rears her head every once in a while, and not often enough) would have to go up to the podium to collect all of her trophies.  So, that's where the "self-doubt" on my part comes from.  LOL.  Her Try gives me pause.  But, she's so high up there, Anne is still winning.

Best Supporting Actor
30%    Robert De Niro
27.5% Tommy Lee Jones
22.5% Philip Seymour Hoffman
20%    Christopher Waltz
0%      Alan Arkin

I'm surprised more people aren't floating De Niro's name around.  Am I missing something here?  Now, granted, I didn't find him particularly good in the role and his "crying" scene was so forced and disingenuous.  Could he be the surprise?  The race is a close one, possibly a four-way.  How often does that happen?  And all former winners too.  Who has had the most losses since their win?  De Niro (and, Hoffman).  Who has gone without longest?  De Niro > Jones > Hoffman > Arkin > Waltz.  Who has the biggest name recognition?  De Niro.  Who has the most nominations?  De Niro (7).  Who has had the longest career?  Alan Arkin.  But, De Niro is close behind.  But, De Niro, unlike the others, already has two.  Still, Raging Bull was over three decades ago.  Raging Bull, people.  He was Daniel Day-Lewis'ing it, before DDL hit the screen.  And De Niro is considered one of the greats.  Could he be ReOscared with a third on the same evening as the much younger Day-Lewis?  The performances don't compare.  And De Niro has "soiled" his resume some in recent memory.  Am I just trying to make this happen, because no one else is and I want to cry out "first"?  (Correction: I think Rope of Silicon has just put him on top, now.)  Think Jack Nicholson #3, As Good As It Gets: older guy with OCD issues.  Or, does the math mean something here?  Are Waltz and Hoffman serious threats?  Waltz' Golden Globe win didn't hurt, but did it mean anything?  Is it because he technically has a lead role and he could Juliet Binoche the Oscars?  Am I underestimating Hoffman?  Is there seriously a clamoring for him to recognized again?  Yes, he has the title role, which is weighty, but I didn't get the memo that he's a legend.  And, Grumpy Cat, Grumpy Cat, what are they feeding Tommy Lee Jones?  I think I'm giving the edge to DeNiro, because I'm crazy that way.  But, wait, no I'm not!  Wait, yes, I am!

Best Adapted Screenplay
65%    Lincoln
20%    Argo
10%    Life of Pi
2.5%   Silver Linings Playbook
2.5%   Beasts of the Southern Wild


Lincoln is one of the frontrunners and I can't get over the idea of some no-namer beating Tony Kushner.  He's Broadway royalty and most in the know, know his name.  He has won Tony, Emmy, and Pulitzer!  My prognosticating brain can't adapt to any other situation.

Best Original Screenplay
35%    Zero Dark Thirty
32.5% Django Unchained
30%    Amour
2.5%   Moonrise Kingdom
0%      Flight

Well, the controversy should extinguish Zero Dark Thirty's chances, but I can't let go.  Personal bias is getting in the way.  I'm embarrassed that I even consider Django a threat, because it's such a grossly uneven movie, and for a Tarantino film, I doubt there will be many lines we'll be quoting five years from now.  The best one (which is genius from a writing and marketing perspective) is so specific too ("The 'D' is silent").  Still trying to predict Amour, but just can't yet.  Think Talk to Her.

Knee-Jerk Predictions (For Now):
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Editing: Argo
Production Design: Anna Karenina
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Makeup: Les Misérables
Score: Life of Pi
Song: Skyfall
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Sound Editing: Skyfall
Visual Effects: Life of Pi

Foreign Language: Amour
Animated Feature: Frankenweenie
Documentary: How to Survive a Plague

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Oscar Nomination Predictions 2012

Well, the day has almost arrived, one of my favorites of the year: Oscar nomination time!  So exciting!  Do you have your predictions ready?  My blindspots (or films I haven't seen) are: Skyfall, Anna Karenina, The Hobbit, Rust and Bone, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, most of the official foreign language entries, documentaries, animated features, and all of those shorts.  Right now, I'm sensing that the wins are going to be pretty evenly distributed (with Argo being a kind of Traffic this year).  And, of course, there are all those extra variables this year like the shortened deadline and voting hiccups.  Who will have read the tea leaves best?  What are your predictions?  These were mine from last year.  I actually thought War Horse was the frontrunner, because I couldn't commit to The Artist.  Here I am, predicting Spielberg in the lead, yet again.  I'm looking to beat 35/44 out of the Top Eight Categories.  

Best Picture
1. Lincoln (Buena Vista).  SAG, BFCA, PGA, GG (Drama).  With multiple nominations expected, it's sure to pass $160M; this is the odds-on favorite for the win.  People, like myself, wanted something more than a history lesson with schmaltzy and cloying Spielberg flourishes delivered under the radar.  Some hold out hope for Les Mis, which may already be dying a slow death, or pick up steam.  Others think Argo could sneak in.  That directing snub from BAFTA certainly supports this notion.  And, yet, others who aren't willing to paint themselves into a corner (like I am) still consider the possibility for a Zero Dark Thirty.  Most have bailed on Silver Linings.  Lincoln's winning.  Am I sure?  No.  But, snoozers with no sex and action that are box-office bonanzas are not to be ignored.  There's a reason it made all this money.  For the win: Brevet, and most of the Gold Derby.

3. Argo (Warner Bros).  SAG, BFCA, PFA, GG (Drama).  Once the frontrunner, it has relented the top spot to Lincoln.  But think the Telluride selection has gained it back.  For the win: Atchity, Horgan, Khan, Lodge, O'Neil, Rosen, Shehan.

2. Les Misérables (Universal).  SAG, BFCA, PGA, GG (Comedy).  It appears to be a box-office hit and the awards season could help raise the grosses beyond expectations.  It's too soon to tell.  Still a remote possibility for the win, the movie will need a high nomination count, aggressive campaign, and commercial longevity.  For the win: Simanton, Suskind.

4. Zero Dark Thirty (Sony).  BFCA, PGA, GG (Drama).  The critical darling with promising box-office potential, this might have been a BP contender another year.  Certainly, the controversy regarding torture can't help its chances at a win with The Academy.  Argo being the "friendlier" thriller also stands in its way.  For the win: Adams, Geler, Polowy, Wells.

5. Silver Linings Playbook (TWC). SAG, BFCA, PGA, GG (Comedy).  The frontrunner back in Toronto for a hot second, many overestimated the rom-com's chances with the overly positive reception coupled with being Harvey Weinstein's baby this Oscar season.  Still, a decent show is expected. Though, considering its genre and starpower, the similar box-office track it's following as The Artist (a black and white silent movie with no stars), with not the same critical backing, one is left with great doubt.

6. Life of Pi (Fox).  BFCA, PGA, GG (Drama).  Enthusiasm seemed to have waned, but the awards bodies have been kind.  I'm sticking by my guns that this film will pull in just like Hugo did.  Not a lock, but close to a sure thing.  Predicting no nomination: Lodge.

7. Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features).  BFCA, PGA, GG (Comedy).  I've been predicting a BP nod since September.  I will not let up.  Not saying it's a lock, but, again, close to a sure thing.  Predicting no nomination: Rogers, Olsen, Tapley, Geler, Horgan, Lodge, O'Neil, Polowy, Rushfield, Sheehan, Simanton, Suskind, Walton, Wells.

8. Django Unchained (TWC).  BFCA, PGA, GG (Drama).  Audiences are reacting to Tarantino's latest similar to his previous effort Inglourious Basterds, which had no problem racking up nominations.  The appeal of this film is lost on me, but the consistency in response between the two movies can only lead me to believe that Django's chances are as good as a proof of sale.  Though, its violent content in the make of the Newtown, CT school shooting may or may not play a role in its chances.  No lock, but its chances are quite good.  Predicting no nomination: Breznican, Tapley, Lodge, O'Connell, Stone.

9. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight).  BFCA, PGA.  Winter's Bone was able to get in with only a BFCA, why shouldn't Beasts?  That's a good question, but I don't know how the studio is splitting its time between Best Exotic and Beasts.  I honestly have no idea how the AMPAS reacted to this film.  Predicting no nomination: Hammond, Khan, Polowy, Whipp.

10. The Master (TWC).  BFCA.  This was one of my favorite films of 2012.  The Tree of Life getting in last year speaks to its chances of also making it (both got BFCA), but with the unlikelihood of getting a Director spot; Joaquin Phoenix's bad press; Drive getting a BFCA last year, but no Oscar nod for BP; missing the SAG (which seems like a big deal, but perhaps I'm overblowing it); and TWC having already two films with likely berth's in the Best Picture field, I would like to err on the side of The Master not getting in.  Most of the buzz has leaked out.  But, never count Harvey Weinstein out.  Ten years ago, he was able to net three Best Picture films in one year (Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Hours), and that's when it was only five nominees.  The Master being perhaps his weakest link has the critical support.  Also predicting: Brevet, Horgan, Khan, Lodge, Polowy, Pond, Suskind, Travers, Walton, Wells, Wloszczyna.

The first five are locks.  Pi and Moonrise are practically sure-things, chances are pretty good for Django and Beasts.  I'm slightly shaky on The Master and I don't want to appear like I'm filling out ten slots, because that's the maximum, because I'm not.  Part of me wants to nix The Master, but I'm going to ride on the theory that it will end up on at least 5% of the ballots as the #1 pick.

11. Skyfall (Sony).  PGA.  Will James Bond make history this year?  It's the highest grossing 997 of all time.  And the reviews have been sick.  Wasn't it the snub of an established tentpole brand (Batman) that ushered in the new ear of ten nominees?  Predicting: Breznican, Ellwood, Adams, Atchity, Hammond, O'Neil, Rosen, Whipp.

12. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight). SAG, GG (Comedy).  It's easy to count this entry in on the surface, as it got the SAG, as well as GG mention.  Bridesmaids (which may have been too crass for the academy) and Nine (with unforgiving reviews) both in similar positions failed to make the BP cut.  One must also consider that those ahead of it that didn't get a SAG aren't the actor showcases that generally get in.  Even if screeners were sent out late, I hardly think it's a mark against Zero for missing SAG, though one might make the argument that it doesn't look as good for Django.  Beasts wasn't SAG-eligible.  Pi's characters are almost all CGI.  The Master's buzz is dying.  And, Moonrise has two kids as its leads, which probably didn't work for it.  Its mention in the Globes Comedy category isn't as impressive as others that got in on the Drama side.  Its RT/MC is 77/62, which, if not impressive, is respectable.  The $10M production made $46.4M domestic and $134.4M, and its subject matter on the elderly plight post-retirement/twilight years must appeal to a largest contingent of the academy, as I'm sure it will go down easier than Amour.  Before last year's rule change, its chances were probably greater.  Its Achilles' heel, now, is its ability to get enough #1 votes to get into the race, a feet that will probably be less troubling for Searchlight's other main entry, Beasts of the Southern Wild (86/86; $11.3M).  One, but not both, could easily get in.  Fox Searchlight is in a good position to get something in.  Predicting: Musto, Rushfield, Sheehan.

13. Amour (Sony Classics).  While I could see this being Haneke's "breakout" film with the AMPAS, especially considering its elderly-geared storyline, I'm going to wager that small studio, low-gross potential, and the director's trademark style will keep it out.  A Separation wasn't able to get in last year, and Amour is not an easy film to stomach.  Predicting: Rogers, Breznican, Howell, Tapley, Feinberg, Geler, Hammond, Hogan, Horgan, Karger, Khan, Lodge, O'Connell, O'Neil, Sheehan, Thompson, Walton, Whipp.

14. The Intouchables (TWC). Predicting: Tapley.

15. Flight (Paramount).  I was surprised when I heard it was closing the NYFF.  This film had a huge initial push, and it has belly-upped and crashed since.  Predicting: Stone.

16. The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros).  Predicting: Stone, Wells.
17. The Impossible (Summit).  Predicting: O'Connell, Simanton.
18. Anna Karenina (Focus Features).  Predicting: Rushfield, Suskind.

Also of note, this may be the second year that an animated feature is not within the ranks of the BP field whether real (Toy Story 3, Up) or Oscar-revised (Wall*E, Ratatouille).

Best Director
1. Ben Affleck, Argo
2. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
3. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
4. David O. Russell*, Silver Linings Playbook
5. Tom Hooper, Les Misérables

Alternates: Ang Lee, Quentin Tarantino*, Paul T. Anderson*, Michael Haneke

*It doesn't seem like anyone is betting on Russell AND Hooper, leaving Lee out.  Of course, it's a risk and I'm underestimating how beloved Lee is.  Perhaps I'm trying to be contrary.  I just convinced that the passion for the former two films will play a role.  And it's difficult to imagine TWC not getting a nod for direction.  

Best Actor
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
3. Denzel Washington, Flight
4. Jonathan Hawkes, The Sessions
5. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Alternates: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master, Richard Gere, Arbitrage (Roadside), Jean-Louis Triginant, Amour

*I have a hard time believing The Academy will go for Cooper, but, then, I don't have strong enough convictions to replace him with any of the alternates.  Is Hawkes a lock?

Best Actress
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
3. Naomi Watts (Summit), The Impossible
4. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight)
5. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone (Sony Classics)

Alternates: Helen Mirren, Hitchcock (Fox Searchlight), Emmanuelle Riva (Sony Classics), Judi Dench, Exotic

*I'm so tempted to plug Mirren in for Cotillard or Wallis, but I just ... can't.  

Best Supporting Actor
1. Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained
2. Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
3. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
4. Alan Arkin, Argo
5. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Alternates: Christoph Waltz, Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained, Eddie Redmayne, Matthew McConaughey, Javier Bardem, John Goodman, Argo or Flight, Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Summit), Ewan McGregor, The Impossible, Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

*It took me a while to figure out who will be the fifth nominee.  And, then, duh, it dawned on me: "The Sad Off" between Samuel L. Jackson and Anne Hathaway.  Jackson for a surprise nomination and win.  This is my official No Guts, No Glory call (for now).  I see that Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post) is with me.

Best Supporting Actress
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
2. Sally Field, Lincoln
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
4. Judi Dench, Skyfall
5. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Alternates: Jacki Weaver, Amy Adams, Samantha Barks, Nicole Kidman, Ann Dowd

Best Original Screenplay
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Moonrise Kingdom
3. Django Unchained
4. The Master
5. Amour

Alternates: Looper, The Intouchables, Flight, Middle of Nowhere

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild

Alternates: Perks of Being a Wallflower, Les Misérables, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Best Editing
1. Argo
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Lincoln
4. Les Misérables
5. Skyfall

Alternates: Silver Linings Playbook, The Master, Life of Pi, Django Unchained, Flight, The Dark Knight Rises, Killing Them Softly 

Cinematography: 
1. Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
2. Danny Cohen, Les Misérables
3. Mihai Malaimare Jr, The Master
4. Greig Fraser, Zero Dark Thirty
5. Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln

Alternates: Roger Deakins, Skyfall; Robert Richardson, Django Unchained; Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight Rises; Ben Richardson, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Seamus McGarvey, Anna Karenina

Production Design: 
1. Les Misérables
2. Anna Karenina
3. Lincoln
4. The Hobbit
5. Moonrise Kingdom

Alternates: Life of Pi, Cloud Atlas, Argo, Prometheus, The Master, Snow White and the Huntsman, The Dark Knight Rises, Django Unchained

Costume Design:
1. Paco Delgado, Les Misérables
2. Jacqueline Durran, Anna Karenina
3. Joanna Johnston, Lincoln
4. Colleen Atwood, Snow White and the Huntsman
5. Ranchoux & Gasc, Farewell, My Queen

Alternates: Barrett & Gayraud, Cloud Atlas; Taylor, Buck & Baskrey, The Hobbit; Kasia Walicka-Maimone, Moonrise Kingdom; Jacqueline West, Argo; Julie Weiss, Hitchcock; Sharen Davis, Django Unchained; Manon Rasmussen, A Royal Affair; Margot Wilson, Lawless; Eiko Ishioka (deceased), Mirror Mirror; Mark Bridges, The Master

Visual Effects: 
1. Life of Pi
2. The Hobbit
3. The Avengers
4. Prometheus
5. Cloud Atlas

Alternate: The Dark Knight Rises

Makeup: 
1. Lincoln
2. Les Misérables
3. The Hobbit

Song:
1. "Suddenly," Les Misérables 
2. "Skyfall," Skyfall
3. "Touch the Sky," Brave
4. "Still Alive," Paul Williams Still Alive
5. "Still Dream," Rise of the Guardians

Alternates: "Pi's Lullaby," Life of Pi; "Learn Me Right," Brave; "For You," Act of Valor; "Safe and Sound," The Hunger Games; "Not Running Anymore," Stand Up Guys


*Sometimes, I wonder what the point is even trying to predict this category.

Score: 
1. John Williams, Lincoln
2. Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
3. Jonny Greenwood, The Master
4. Alexandre Desplat, Argo
5. Heil, Klimek, Tykwer, Cloud Atlas;

Alternates: Alexandre Desplat, Zero Dark Thirty, Alexandre Desplat, Moonrise Kingdom; Romer, Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina

Sound Editing: 
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. The Dark Knight Rises
3. The Avengers
4. Skyfall
5. Django Unchained

Alternates: Life of Pi, Lincoln, Les Misérables, The Hobbit, Argo

Sound Mixing: 
1. Les Misérables
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Skyfall
4. Django Unchained
5. The Avengers

Alternates: Lincoln, Life of Pi, The Dark Knight Rises, The Hobbit, 

Foreign Language Film: 
1. Amour (Austria)
2. The Intouchables (France)
3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)
4. No (Chile)
5. Barbara (Germany)

Alternate: Rebelle, Kon Tiki, Beyond the Hills, Sister, The Deep

Animated Feature: 
1. Brave
2. Wreck-It Ralph
3. Frankenweenie
4. The Painting 
5. ParaNorman

Alternate: Rise of the Guardians, The Rabbi's Cat

Documentary:
1. How to Survive a Plague
2. The Invisible War
3. Searching for Sugar Man
4. Ethel
5. The Gatekeepers

Documentary Short:
1. Open Heart
2. Mondays at Racine
3. The Education of Mohamma Hussein
4. Inocente
5. Redemption

Animated Short:
1. Paperman
2. Adam and Dog
3. Dripped
4. The Fall of the House of Usher
5. The Eagleman Stag

Alternate: Tram

Live Action Short:
1. Curfew
2. Death of a Shadow
3. Asad
4. 9meter
5. Buzkashi Boys

Final Count:
Lincoln 12 (5 wins)
Les Misérables 11 (5 wins)
Zero Dark Thirty 8 (2 wins)
Argo 6 (2 wins)
Silver Linings Playbook 6 (1 win)
Life of Pi 5 (2 wins)
Django Unchained 5 (1 win)
The Master 5
Skyfall 5
Moonrise Kingdom 3
Beasts of the Southern Wild 3
The Avengers 3
The Hobbit 3
Amour 2 (1 win)
The Sessions 2
Anna Karenina 2
Cloud Atlas 2
Brave 2 (1 win)
The Dark Knight Rises 1
Snow White and the Huntsman 1
Farewell, My Queen 1
Prometheus 1
Flight 1
Rust and Bone 1
The Impossible 1
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 1
Rise of the Guardians 1
Hitchcock 0
Other Feature-Length Nods 14
Shorts 15

Thank you to The Film Experience, Awards Daily, Gold Derby, Rope of Silicon, Movie City News for being invaluable resources.  

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Best Director 2012: Spielberg Vs. Affleck

Two years ago, Tom Hooper won Best Director for The King's Speech, thanks to Harvey Weinstein. It was a sour moment for many fans of The Social Network in what was possibly a 50/50 race. David Fincher, the motion picture veteran of the two, had logged in nearly two decades as a consistent, if less traditional, director of many hits and was gradually accumulating critical accolades. Hooper, who had one major minor feature underneath his belt, was best known for his cable telefilms. He was just getting started and already handed the crown. However, Speech was a hit which audiences and critics alike embraced, so who am I to say anything? That all being said, I doubt no matter how amazing Hooper's upcoming Les Misérables may be, will people be clamoring for his second directing Oscar in only two years.  Egg on my face if he gets it.

The list of directors winning two or more Oscars is composed of eighteen men, two of whom won three (William Wyler, Frank Capra), and one who won four (John Ford). The chances of a director getting ReOscared are 25%--much greater than in the acting categories. However, it should be said, that after about the mid-60s (in a list that included Robert Wise, David Lean, Fred Zinnemann, George Stevens, Josephs L. Mankiewicz, Billy Wilder, Elia Kazan, Frank Lloyd, Leo McCarey, Lewis Milestone, Frank Borzage), the practice of rerecognizing a director dropped precipitously. Since Fred Zinnemann, only Milos Forman, Oliver Stone, Clint Eastwood, and the golden child Steven Spielberg have won two directing Oscars. Forman and Stone don't produce the same quality of output they once did, but Eastwood and Spielberg are both considered Hollywood titans. Amongst his own generation, Spielberg grew to become the rule by which mainstream and (later) awards success was measured, especially when he began tackling more adult subject matter like Schindler's List (apparently, many didn't consider The Color Purple mature enough).

The idea of Spielberg winning a third Oscar isn't unheard of, and, frankly, quite expected, IMO. It's a matter of timing and film, really. While I lost faith in Streep winning at the last moment last year, in hindsight, her win was never in doubt. While the AMPAS could have made history with Viola Davis, Streep, after seventeen nominations, had finally topped herself. Maybe not in performance, but, by the very fact that she was depicting a 20th-century icon gave her a leg up in a way she didn't have before.  Margaret Thatcher was one of the most famous women of her time and Streep had just portrayed her quite convincingly (in an otherwise lackluster film).  And she was on her 17th nomination!  For the same reason, along with the Time Magazine cover (although I'm sure it doesn't carry the weight it once used to) and the long-running perception that he is the greatest working actor, I believe Daniel Day-Lewis has his third Oscar clinched by having played one of the most famous people in history and doing so quite well (not because of my personal bias, but what the tea leaves are saying). Even though his second win was only five years ago and he hardly ever puts out a film, he's not exactly a spring chicken.  And, imagine it'll be Streep handing him that Oscar.  Talk about a photo opportunity.  

While The Iron Lady was a mess of a film, Lincoln achieves what it sets out to do. It tells the story of the 16th U.S. president's (and country's) greatest achievements: ending slavery while also The Civil War. Spielberg has captured this milestone on film and done so with great commercial and critical success. While I found the film plodding, which may be in due part to the subject matter, its Importance and mildly self-congratulatory nature may go off very well with The Academy.  Lincoln's success at the Oscars will go beyond Day-Lewis, but, just how far, is difficult to predict right now. First on the list just may well be Spielberg, who tried 19th-century history before with Amistad and fell comparatively short.  And if Spielberg makes it, the Best Picture honor will also be his (I imagine screenplay, makeup, score, at the very least, will follow suit).  What gives me pause is his latest movie is so sobering and less manipulative than his usual fare.  Schindler's List milked the emotional factor to the hilt and Saving Private Ryan was part-action film while it doled out its history.  Make no mistake, Spielberg's trademark schmaltz is there, albeit in very subtle and sparse amounts.  Lincoln requires an investment from an audience not normally asked of them.  

The only upset Spielberg has to worry about is Ben Affleck, who, up until now, was the frontrunner and had campaigned HARD. The former Oscar winner (for screenwriting) is playing the mild-mannered, amiable, and dutiful husband and father in front of the paparazzi. He wants that directing Oscar for his crowd-pleasing action-drama Argo (with a Hollywood bent), also depicting another time in U.S. history. The setting is closer to the present and the events aren't as lofty compared to Lincoln (the future of a country on the brink of collapse that may determine the future of Western Civilization verses a diplomatic nightmare set in the Middle East). Movie-stars turned directors have won for less and, in another year, Affleck's chances would be a slam dunk. Robert Redford, Warren Beatty, Kevin Costner, Mel Gibson, Eastwood, even TV icon Ron Howard, have all won directing Oscars. In fact, if ReOscaring directors was a thing of mid-20th-century, Oscaring movie stars was a thing of the late 20th-century. It has been years since Gibson, Howard, or even Eastwood won. Affleck would like to think that it is his time. Is it? He has impressed audiences and critics with his first two features. The aforementioned movie stars all won and/or were nominated for their first or second films. Indeed, Affleck has a shot, but luck and timing may have Spielberg eclipsing his chances.  The race boils down to those two.  

Or, am I just speaking too much in the moment?  Lincoln is still fresh.  Ago has been out for over a month now and enjoyed its time in the sun.  Could the pendulum swing back in its direction?  Perhaps the race is between the old guard (Lincoln) verses the new (Argo).  But, we know how that has panned out the last few years, don't we?  

And while we can't finalize the likely nominees, the final five is starting to firm up.

1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (for the win)
2. Ben Affleck, Argo
3. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
4. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
5. Tom Hooper, Les Misérables

If Les Mis doesn't pan out, the fifth slot could go to an early favorite that has since lost momentum, Paul Thomas Anderson, (The Master) or Michael Haneke (Amour), who has yet to open his film to American audiences. Unless Zero Dark Thirty and/or Django Unchained blow everybody away, I'm not sure previous winner Kathryn Bigelow (who may be under her own shadow of being over-rewarded recently) and Quentin Tarantino will figure into the race.  There are a couple of other possibilities I threw in only because I haven't seen the films yet.  Silver Linings may also peter out, but I doubt that will figure in if Harvey puts all of his weight behind it.

6. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

7. Juan Antonio Bayona, The Impossible
8. Michael Haneke, Amour

9. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

10. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

11. Gus Van Sant, Promised Land

What do you think?  Is The Master finished?  Or does Anderson have enough good-will with the AMPAS for them to sneak in his box-office underperformer ala The Tree of Life? 

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