Best Director / Screenplays / Etc Oscar 2013 - July Predictions

So, I'm finally wrapping up my July predictions.  I wanted to get the rest of the Big Eight out of the way, as well as add a small section of nine more feature length categories.  You can visit the latest predictions for picture here, actresses here, and actors here.  I plan on doing another set of predictions in September, but, if things don't change that much and/or I get lazy, I might postpone it until October.  There hasn't been too much of a shakeup since the last prediction right before all the major players at Cannes were taken into consideration, followed by the settling-in period.  Most of the Fall trailers have debuted (Monuments, Hustle, and Walter Mitty immediately spring to mind as those missing, but I suppose they have another month or so to put something up), but the festival lineups for Telluride, Venice, and Toronto should be announced shortly, which should clear up some of the curiosity regarding such projects as Foxcatcher, Dallas Buyers Club, A Most Wanted Man, Devil's Knot, Thérèse and The Railway Man, among others.  For the time being, I'm going to go with Fruitvale Station as the frontrunner until I have good reason to replace it with something else.  It has the reviews, an emotional story, it shows the potential to have the appropriate box-office, it's backed by the King of the Awards Circuit, and, additionally, it draws parallels to an unfortunate tragedy that has received nationwide attention the last few weeks.  It also fits the profile of an unassuming smaller film, which hasn't been uncommon in Best Picture winners of the recent past.  With so many films having a black-character focus (TWC's The B*****, Mandela: The Long Walk Home, as well as 12 Years a Slave, and Black Nativity), it may also end up leading the greater narrative this awards seasons.  You might note that the Best Director category may be brought to you by the letter C this year.

Best Director
1 (+2). Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
2 (--). George Clooney, The Monuments Men
3 (+4). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
4 (--). John Wells, August: Osage County
5 (+5). Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave

6 (+2). Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
7 (-2). David O. Russell, American Hustle
8 (New). Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue Is the Warmest Color
9 (+19). Justin Chadwick, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
10 (New).  J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost

11 (-10). Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
12 (New). Stephen Frears, Philomena
13 (-2). Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
14 (+10). Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
15 (-6). Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
16 (-1). John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
17 (-11). Alexander Payne, Nebraska
18 (-9). Asghar Farhadi, The Past
19 (-1). Bill Condon, The Fifth Estate
20 (+6). Ron Howard, Rush

21 (-7). Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
22 (-3). Anton Corbijn, A Most Wanted Man
23 (-6). Jeff Nichols, Mud
24 (New). Brian Percival, The Book Thief
25 (-2). Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
26 (New). Peter Berg, Lone Survivor
27 (+2). Atom Egoyan, Devil's Knot
28 (-3). Jonathan Teplitzky, The Railway Man
29 (-17). Ridley Scott, The Counselor
30 (+20). Lee Daniels, The B*****

31 (+7). Spike Jonze, Her
32 (+3). Peter Landesman, Parkland
33 (-3). Neill Blomkamp, Elysium
34 (-18). Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
35 (-14). Akiva Goldman's, Winter's Tale
36 (-16). Baz Luhrmann, The Great Gatsby
37 (-15). Spike Lee, Oldboy
38 (+9). Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
39 (+9). Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman
40 (-9). James Gray, The Immigrant

41 (-14). Jason Reitman, Labor Day
42 (-8). Olivier Dahan, Grace of Monaco
43 (-10). Derek Cianfrance, The Place Beyond the Pines
44 (-8). Carl Rinsch, 47 Ronin
45 (-8). Susanne Bier, Serena
46 (-14). Denis Villeneuve, Prisoners
47 (-1). Kar Wai Wong, The Grandmaster

Best Original Screenplay
1 (+1). Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
2 (+11). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (adapted?)
3 (+2). Eric Singer, American Hustle.  Script Review.
4 (+8). Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
5 (-4). Bob Nelson, Nebraska

6 (-2). Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks.  Script Review.
7 (--). Alfonso & Jonás Cuarón, Gravity.  Script Review.
8 (--). Jeff Nichols, Mud
9 (New). Peter Berg, Lone Survivor
10 (-4). Cormac McCarthy, The Counselor.  Script Review.

11 (-8). Asghar Farhadi & Massoumeh Lahidji, The Past
12 (New). J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost
13 (+1). Peter Morgan, Rush
14 (-4). Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Way, Way Back
15 (--). Spike Jonze, Her
16 (+1). Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
17 (-1). Tobias Lindholm & Thomas Vinterberg, The Hunt
18 (--). Arash Amel, Grace of Monaco
19 (+5). Peter Landesman, Parkland
20 (New). Frances Ha

21 (+9). Lee Daniels & Danny Strong, The B***** ("adapted"?)
22 (+9). Derek Cianfrance, et al, The Place Beyond the Pines
23 (+2). Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring ("adapted"?)
24 (-15). E. Max Frye & Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher.  Script Review.
25 (-14). David Lowery, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
26 (-6). Neill Blomkamp, Elysium.  Script Review.
27 (-5). James Gray & Ric Menello, The Immigrant
28 (-9). Stephen Jeffreys, Diana
29 (-8). Aaron Guzikowski, Prisoners.  Script Review.
30 (-2). Chris Morgan, et al, 47 Ronin

31 (-5). Travis Beacham & Guillermo del Toro, Pacific Rim.  Script Review.
32 (-5). Brian Koppelman & David Levien, Runner, Runner
33 (-4). Scott Cooper & Brad Ingelsby, Out of the Furnace.  Script Review.
34 (-2). Brian Helgeland, 42
35 (-12). Nicolas Winding Refn, Only God Forgives

Best Adapted Screenplay
1 (--). Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
2 (+1). George Clooney & Grant Heslov, The Monuments Men
3 (+1). Steve McQueen & John Ridley, Twelve Years a Slave
4 (+3). Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
5 (New). Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope, Philomena

6 (--). William Nicholson, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
7 (+2). Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
8 (-6). Steve Conrad, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
9 (New). Abdellatif Kechiche & Ghalia Lacroix, Blue Is the Warmest Color
10 (New). Markus Zusak, Michael Petroni, The Book Thief

11 (-6). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (original?)
12 (+6). Josh Singer, The Fifth Estate
13 (+1). Charlie Stratton, Thérèse
14 (-6). Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
15 (+1). Andrew Bovell, A Most Wanted Man
16 (+5). Frank Cottrell Boyce & Andy Paterman, The Railway Man
17 (-7). Baz Luhrmann & Craig Pearce, The Great Gatsby
18 (+1). Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
19 (+1). Paul Harris Boardman & Scott Derrickson, Devil's Knot
20 (-8). Akiva Goldman's, Winter's Tale

21 (-8). Lee Daniels & Danny Strong, The B***** ("original"?)
22 (-11). Jason Reitman, Labor Day.  Script Review.
23 (-8). Abi Morgan, The Invisible Woman
24 (New). Hossein Amini, The Two Faces of January 
25 (-8). Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Spectacular Now
26 (-2). Mark Protosevich, Oldboy
27 (-5). Christopher Kyle, Serena
28 (-2). Joon-ho Bong & Kelly Masterson, Snowpiercer
29 (-6). Luc Besson, The Family
30 (-5). Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring (original?)

Editing
Monuments / Gravity / Captain Phillips / Hustle / 12 Years
alts: Fruitvale / August / Llewyn / Wolf / Rush / Lost / Estate

Production Design
Monuments / Oz / Hobbit / Gatsby / 12 Years
alts: Gravity / Rush / Mandela / Elysium / Black Nativity / Banks / Hustle

Costume Design
Gatsby / Monuments / The Book Thief / Oz / Monaco
alts: Railway Man / The B***** / Llewyn / Invisible Woman / Effie Gray

Makeup and Hair
Walter Mitty / Lone Ranger / Hobbit
alts: Hustle / Gatsby / Oz / Estate / Mandela / Rush

Cinematography
Gravity / Walter Mitty / Monuments / Llweyn / Nebraska
alts: Lost / Captain Phillips / Counselor / Rush / Wolf / Estate / Wanted Man

Visual Effects
Gravity / Walter Mitty / Iron Man Three / Pacific Rim / World War Z
alts: Elysium / Star Trek / Hobbit

Score
Monuments / Llweyn / 12 Years / Banks / Wolf
alts: Lost / Nebraska / Estate / Rush / Railway Man / Mandela / Devil's Knot

Sound Mixing
Llewyn / Gravity / Captain Phillips / Rush / Monuments
alts: 12 Years / Lost / Star Trek / Ender's Game / Elysium / Lone Ranger

Sound Editing
Gravity / Monuments / Captain Phillips / Monster's University / Rush
alts: Elysium / Pacific Rim / Lost / Iron Man Three / 12 Years / Lone Ranger / Star Trek

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Best Director/Screenplays Oscar 2013 - May Predictions

Well, Cannes has clarified a few things.  The Coen brothers latest looks like it has a conceivable shot at major recognition.  The question is: is CBS Films up to the task?  The company has been around for only a few years and looks to have high ambitions.  With Scott Rudin in the mix, great reviews and a stellar art-house box-office will be just what the Coens need to get their record third Best Picture in a row.  Nat Rogers at The Film Experience made a great point a few weeks ago about the unlikelihood of a large number of Best Picture nominees being consecutive repeats for their directors/producers.  And, he's right!  The chances of O. Russell, the Coens, Payne, Bennett, Scorsese, and producer Clooney  (and Hancock for that matter) all getting in for 2013 are pretty slim.  Not to forget adding such familiars as Greengrass, Allen, Howard, Jason Reitman, and Ridley Scott (I'd only consider Greengrass at this point).  The thing is, I wouldn't invest much stock on Bennett and Scorsese for starters.  But that still leaves five, which is a lot.  But, hey, we had five Best Picture players with directors that were enjoying consecutive successes (O. Russell, Bigelow, Tarantino, Hooper, and Spielberg) this past race.  Of course, none of them were on their third, like we have with so many this year, especially O. Russell, the Coens, and Payne (and two of them made black and white films to boot!).  In 2010 and 2011, there were even less, and that's even taking into consideration if the Field of Ten had been in play this whole time.

Back to Cannes, Asghar Farhadi also showed that his A Separation was no fluke.  Expect his latest drama to be a major player in the Foreign Language field, and, if all goes right, it could slip into Amour territory.  I've been waiting for non-Best Actress winners to liven up the category this year, and Bérénice Bejo may be part of the antidote.  Sony Pictures Classics have proven to be effective at juggling two films at once.  Last year, they managed impressively with both Amour and Searching for Sugar Man.  A year before that, Midnight in Paris and Farhadi's Separation.

Speaking of two-handers, that's ground zero for TWC, but I still believe that August: Osage County and Fruitivale Station will be its two biggest players.  And, for Sony: The Monuments Men and American Bullshit are the ones that look best on paper.  That can always turn awry.  Will one of them become a turkey/underwhelm?  I expect that it's likelier that one of them will move to 2014, if anything.  I don't see Paramount creating strong arguments for both Nebraska and The Wolf of Wall Street.  It will be interesting to see if Nebraska sets Cannes on fire when reviews come out this week.  I'm banking on it right now.  As you may expect, I updated the director categories, as well as introduced the screenplay races.  I'm thrusting forward with The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.  I've noticed that the Awards Daily Forum has keyed into the movie being an Oscar player next year, but most major prognosticating bloggers haven't bitten yet.  So be it.  There's still plenty of time before we'll probably see press materials like trailers and posters to capture their attention.

Best Director
1. (New). Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
2 (-1). George Clooney, The Monuments Men
3 (-1). Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
4 (-1). John Wells, August: Osage County
5 (+5). David O. Russell, American Hustle

6 (+15). Alexander Payne, Nebraska
7 (--). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
8 (-2). Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
9 (+9). Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
10 (+1). Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave

11 (New). Asghar Farhadi, The Past
12 (+1). Ridley Scott, The Counselor
13 (-4). Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
14 (-6). Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
15 (+17). John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
16 (-12). Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
17 (New). Jeff Nichols, Mud
18 (-13). Bill Condon, The Fifth Estate
19 (-7). Anton Corbijn, A Most Wanted Man
20 (--). Baz Luhrmann, The Great Gatsby

21 (New). Akiva Goldman's, Winter's Tale
22 (+14). Spike Lee, Oldboy
23 (--). Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
24 (+2). Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
25 (New). Jonathan Teplitzky, The Railway Man
26 (+4). Ron Howard, Rush
27 (+1). Jason Reitman, Labor Day
28 (-11). Justin Chadwick, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
29 (New). Atom Egoyan, Devil's Knot
30 (+5). Neill Blomkamp, Elysium

31 (-17). James Gray, The Immigrant
32 (-3). Denis Villeneuve, Prisoners
33 (-18). Derek Cianfrance, The Place Beyond the Pines
34 (New). Olivier Dahan, Grace of Monaco
35 (New). Peter Landesman, Parkland
36 (New). Carl Rinsch, 47 Ronin
37 (-21). Susanne Bier, Serena
38 (-14). Spike Jonze, Her
39 (+4). Brad Furman, Runner, Runner
40 (New). Nicolas Winding Refn, Only God Forgives

41 (-14). Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring
42 (-20). Brian Helgeland, 42
43 (-24). Guillaume Canet, Blood Ties
44 (New). Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Way, Way Back
45 (New). James Ponsoldt, The Spectacular Now
46 (-12). Kar Wai Wong, The Grandmaster
47 (-10). Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
48 (-23). Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman
49 (-18). Scott Cooper, Out of the Furnace
50 (-12). Lee Daniels, The Butler

Best Original Screenplay
1. Bob Nelson, Nebraska
2. Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
3. Asghar Farhadi & Massoumeh Lahidji, The Past
4. Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks
5. Eric Singer, American Hustle

6. Cormac McCarthy, The Counselor
7. Alfonso & Jonás Cuarón, Gravity
8. Jeff Nichols, Mud
9. E. Max Frye & Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
10. Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Way, Way Back

11. David Lowery, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
12. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
13. Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (adapted?)
14. Peter Morgan, Rush
15. Spike Jonze, Her
16. Tobias Lindholm & Thomas Vinterberg, The Hunt
17. Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
18. Arash Amel, Grace of Monaco
19. Stephen Jeffreys, Diana
20. Neill Blomkamp, Elysium

21. Aaron Guzikowski, Prisoners
22. James Gray & Ric Menello, The Immigrant
23. Nicolas Winding Refn, Only God Forgives
24. Peter Landesman, Parkland
25. Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring ("adapted"?)
26. Pacific Rim
27. Brian Koppelman & David Levien, Runner, Runner
28. 47 Ronin
29. Scott Cooper & Brad Ingelsby, Out of the Furnace
30. Lee Daniels & Danny Strong, The Butler ("adapted"?)
31. The Place Beyond the Pines
32. Brian Helgeland, 42

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
2. Steve Conrad, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
3. George Clooney & Grant Heslov, The Monuments Men
4. Steve McQueen & John Ridley, Twelve Years a Slave
5. Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (original?)

6. William Nicholson, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
7. Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
8. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
9. Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
10. Baz Luhrmann & Craig Pearce, The Great Gatsby

11. Jason Reitman, Labor Day
12. Akiva Goldman's, Winter's Tale
13. Lee Daniels & Danny Strong, The Butler ("original"?)
14. Charlie Stratton, Thérèse
15. Abi Morgan, The Invisible Woman
16. Andrew Bovell, A Most Wanted Man
17. Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Spectacular Now
18. Josh Singer, The Fifth Estate
19. Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
20. Paul Harris Boardman & Scott Derrickson, Devil's Knot

21. Frank Cottrell Boyce & Andy Paterman, The Railway Man
22. Christopher Kyle, Serena
23. Luc Besson, Malavita
24. Mark Protosevich, Oldboy
25. Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring (original?)
26. Joon-ho Bong & Kelly Masterson, Snowpiercer
27. David S. Goyer & Christopher Nolan, Man of Steel

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Best Director 2013 Oscar Predictions

When I make my Oscar predictions, I try to balance conventional wisdom with a little daring.  The standard perennial nominees, Oscar bait potential, Harvey Weinstein, Scott Rudin, are all elements I take into consideration, while also throwing in some out-of-the-box, but calculated thinking.  This is the first year I'm trying my hand so early in races other than Best Actress.  I've already covered Best Picture and Best Actor, so I may round out things for now with Best Director, a race that closely resembles that of Best Picture (if not mimic it entirely these days with the nomination count expansion) with perhaps a cinephile-friendly surprise or two thrown in for good measure, or recognizing a new face or generation.  Do you remember 1999?  That year gave us three directors in their late 20/early 30s who were either on their first or second feature.  Though Sam Mendes, Spike Jonze, and M. Night Shymalan haven't shaped up to be Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese, and Clint Eastwood, it did feel like, at the time, the AMPAS were embracing "the new blood."  Fresh, unique voices that were pushing film discussions forward into the future.  There are a list of young directors who got nominated for their first or second feature in the last couple of decades (Kenneth Branagh, John Singleton, Quentin Tarantino, Sofia Coppola, Jason Reitman, and 2012's Benh Zeitlin), but, unlike 1999, they appeared as singular phenomenons.  Will there be any surprise voices for 2013's lineup?

Now, this year, you have your go-to names like George Clooney (glowing from a recent Oscar win as producer) and Martin Scorsese.  You also have the previously nominated Bennett Miller, David O. Russell, Alexander Payne, Paul Greengrass, Reitman, Ridley Scott, Baz Luhrmann, (and, no, I'm not listing Lee Daniels, because he simply won't have a shot in Hell this year and that's my prediction) and previous winners Woody Allen, Ron Howard and the Coen brothers.  Daniels aside, a lot of straight white men, huh?  (Not there's anything wrong with that)  Just a stale observation.

And out of directors who have made works that have been AMPAS-approved (whether through nominations and/or wins) in the the past, in addition to John Lee Hancock, Scott Cooper, Neill Blomkamp, Derek Cianfrance, Denis Villeneuve, we have Spike Lee, Bill Condon, and Susanne Bier.  Alfonso Cuaron may have come awfully close a couple of times and his ambitious Gravity rising from the horizon may go by way of Stanley Kubruck's 2001 or the Tykwer/Wachowskis' Cloud Atlas.  James Gray, Brian Helgeland, and Justin Chadwick have been knocking around for a while.  Brad Furman is a bit of a wild card.  We also have TV veteran John Wells, who executive produced and cowrote episodes of ER, one of the most popular and longest running television dramas of all time.  He was also the showrunner the first three seasons that boasted a majority of its strongest storylines.

But, what about the new and potentially exciting voices?  Steve McQueen and Ryan Coogler.  Granted, they're riskier to bet on.  McQueen's edgy style with period material and bold themes may end up being too much for the AMPAS, but Coogler, I have feeling his story is going to write itself.

1. George Clooney, The Monuments Men
2. Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale
3. John Wells, August: Osage County
4. Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
5. Bill Condon, The Fifth Estate

6. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
7. Coen brothers, Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
9. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
10. David O. Russell, Abscam Movie

11. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
12. Anton Corbijn, A Most Wanted Man
13. Ridley Scott, The Counselor
14. James Gray, Lowlife
15. Derek Cianfrance, The Place Beyond the Pines
16. Susanne Bier, Serena
17. Justin Chadwick, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
18. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
19. Guillaume Canet, Blood Ties
20. Baz Luhrmann, The Great Gatsby

21. Alexander Payne, Nebraska
22. Brian Helgeland, 42
23. Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
24. Spike Jonze, Her
25. Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman
26. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
27. Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring
28. Jason Reitman, Labor Day
29. Denis Villeneuve, Prisoners
30. Ron Howard, Rush

31. Scott Cooper, Out of the Furnace
32. John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
33. Brad Furman, Runner, Runner
34. Kar Wai Wong, The Grandmaster
35. Neill Blomkamp, Elysium
36. Spike Lee, Oldboy
37. Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club

Okay, fine, in last position at #38: Lee Daniels, The Butler

Thoughts?  Comments?

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Best Director Oscar 2012 Prediction: Ang Lee, Life of Pi

This year is so crazy with predicting the Oscar race.  But, that's what we ask for, isn't it?  We want a real race.  And, of course, we'll never live in a time, where all five nominees in every category are of equal top critical and commercial success.  We have to take what we can get.  Cinesnatch egregiously reported that the Best Director race months ago was between Steven Spielberg and Ben Affleck.  As it turned out, Affleck wasn't nominated by the AMPAS and the buzz on Lincoln has cooled some.  Things weren't so cut and dried.  What makes matters murkier is that the awards bodies that didn't line up behind Affleck, threw their weight towards other directors who weren't nominated for Oscar like Kathryn Bigelow and Paul Thomas Anderson.  Only Ang Lee for Life of Pi has been singled out multiple times.  Three, in fact, which include the film critics of Kansas City, London, and Las Vegas.  A contingent of Gold Derby experts are filing behind his chances including Douglas, Hammond, Khan, Lodge, and Thompson.  National Society went with Michael Haneke for Amour and one Gold Derby pundit (Rosen, though I could have sworn Lodge had him up at the top recently) are predicting him; I just find the film too intimate for the AMPAS to award so a lofty prize.  David O. Russell was chosen by the dubious Satellite Awards and some film festivals, though he's probably more competitive in the screenplay category.  There are still some Gold Derby experts, led by Jeff Wells, who thinks he's going to take the prize (Adams, Horgan, homophobe Setoodeh).  And, I wonder how his "reformed" caustic personality will play with Oscar voters in general.  Newbie Ben Zeitlin falls into the "lucky to be nominated" category, but, this year, who knows.  The group think is with Lincoln's Steven Spielberg, who has won zero honors for directing in connection with this film.

The race does seem to boil down to Spielberg and Lee.  Both veterans, Spielberg with two wins under his belt and Lee with one.  Lee has slowly worked his way up with the AMPAS, first having directed a BP nominee without getting a director's nod, then managing both, and then doing so again, winning for director, but losing BP.  The natural progression this year would be for Lee to win both, I suppose.

I'm really kind of shocked how Lincoln has gross over $170M, nabbed twelve nominations and has seemingly lost its mojo, having really not performed that well through the awards circuit.  Did the marketing team mess up on this one with an unintended sense of entitlement?  Lincoln was such an "Important" movie, right?  Made the most money out of all the nominees.  And was right up there with many of the other films on the review front.  Talk about blowing it.  Having not taken one honor for directing, I'll give the edge to Lee, who is easy to see as a two-time Oscar winner.  Besides, you can do worse this year than cover all your bases on Pi.  But, I wouldn't be surprised if Spielberg rallies for an eleventh hour surge.

Who do I think should have won?  Bigelow, naturally.

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Best Director 2012: Spielberg Vs. Affleck

Two years ago, Tom Hooper won Best Director for The King's Speech, thanks to Harvey Weinstein. It was a sour moment for many fans of The Social Network in what was possibly a 50/50 race. David Fincher, the motion picture veteran of the two, had logged in nearly two decades as a consistent, if less traditional, director of many hits and was gradually accumulating critical accolades. Hooper, who had one major minor feature underneath his belt, was best known for his cable telefilms. He was just getting started and already handed the crown. However, Speech was a hit which audiences and critics alike embraced, so who am I to say anything? That all being said, I doubt no matter how amazing Hooper's upcoming Les Misérables may be, will people be clamoring for his second directing Oscar in only two years.  Egg on my face if he gets it.

The list of directors winning two or more Oscars is composed of eighteen men, two of whom won three (William Wyler, Frank Capra), and one who won four (John Ford). The chances of a director getting ReOscared are 25%--much greater than in the acting categories. However, it should be said, that after about the mid-60s (in a list that included Robert Wise, David Lean, Fred Zinnemann, George Stevens, Josephs L. Mankiewicz, Billy Wilder, Elia Kazan, Frank Lloyd, Leo McCarey, Lewis Milestone, Frank Borzage), the practice of rerecognizing a director dropped precipitously. Since Fred Zinnemann, only Milos Forman, Oliver Stone, Clint Eastwood, and the golden child Steven Spielberg have won two directing Oscars. Forman and Stone don't produce the same quality of output they once did, but Eastwood and Spielberg are both considered Hollywood titans. Amongst his own generation, Spielberg grew to become the rule by which mainstream and (later) awards success was measured, especially when he began tackling more adult subject matter like Schindler's List (apparently, many didn't consider The Color Purple mature enough).

The idea of Spielberg winning a third Oscar isn't unheard of, and, frankly, quite expected, IMO. It's a matter of timing and film, really. While I lost faith in Streep winning at the last moment last year, in hindsight, her win was never in doubt. While the AMPAS could have made history with Viola Davis, Streep, after seventeen nominations, had finally topped herself. Maybe not in performance, but, by the very fact that she was depicting a 20th-century icon gave her a leg up in a way she didn't have before.  Margaret Thatcher was one of the most famous women of her time and Streep had just portrayed her quite convincingly (in an otherwise lackluster film).  And she was on her 17th nomination!  For the same reason, along with the Time Magazine cover (although I'm sure it doesn't carry the weight it once used to) and the long-running perception that he is the greatest working actor, I believe Daniel Day-Lewis has his third Oscar clinched by having played one of the most famous people in history and doing so quite well (not because of my personal bias, but what the tea leaves are saying). Even though his second win was only five years ago and he hardly ever puts out a film, he's not exactly a spring chicken.  And, imagine it'll be Streep handing him that Oscar.  Talk about a photo opportunity.  

While The Iron Lady was a mess of a film, Lincoln achieves what it sets out to do. It tells the story of the 16th U.S. president's (and country's) greatest achievements: ending slavery while also The Civil War. Spielberg has captured this milestone on film and done so with great commercial and critical success. While I found the film plodding, which may be in due part to the subject matter, its Importance and mildly self-congratulatory nature may go off very well with The Academy.  Lincoln's success at the Oscars will go beyond Day-Lewis, but, just how far, is difficult to predict right now. First on the list just may well be Spielberg, who tried 19th-century history before with Amistad and fell comparatively short.  And if Spielberg makes it, the Best Picture honor will also be his (I imagine screenplay, makeup, score, at the very least, will follow suit).  What gives me pause is his latest movie is so sobering and less manipulative than his usual fare.  Schindler's List milked the emotional factor to the hilt and Saving Private Ryan was part-action film while it doled out its history.  Make no mistake, Spielberg's trademark schmaltz is there, albeit in very subtle and sparse amounts.  Lincoln requires an investment from an audience not normally asked of them.  

The only upset Spielberg has to worry about is Ben Affleck, who, up until now, was the frontrunner and had campaigned HARD. The former Oscar winner (for screenwriting) is playing the mild-mannered, amiable, and dutiful husband and father in front of the paparazzi. He wants that directing Oscar for his crowd-pleasing action-drama Argo (with a Hollywood bent), also depicting another time in U.S. history. The setting is closer to the present and the events aren't as lofty compared to Lincoln (the future of a country on the brink of collapse that may determine the future of Western Civilization verses a diplomatic nightmare set in the Middle East). Movie-stars turned directors have won for less and, in another year, Affleck's chances would be a slam dunk. Robert Redford, Warren Beatty, Kevin Costner, Mel Gibson, Eastwood, even TV icon Ron Howard, have all won directing Oscars. In fact, if ReOscaring directors was a thing of mid-20th-century, Oscaring movie stars was a thing of the late 20th-century. It has been years since Gibson, Howard, or even Eastwood won. Affleck would like to think that it is his time. Is it? He has impressed audiences and critics with his first two features. The aforementioned movie stars all won and/or were nominated for their first or second films. Indeed, Affleck has a shot, but luck and timing may have Spielberg eclipsing his chances.  The race boils down to those two.  

Or, am I just speaking too much in the moment?  Lincoln is still fresh.  Ago has been out for over a month now and enjoyed its time in the sun.  Could the pendulum swing back in its direction?  Perhaps the race is between the old guard (Lincoln) verses the new (Argo).  But, we know how that has panned out the last few years, don't we?  

And while we can't finalize the likely nominees, the final five is starting to firm up.

1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (for the win)
2. Ben Affleck, Argo
3. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
4. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
5. Tom Hooper, Les Misérables

If Les Mis doesn't pan out, the fifth slot could go to an early favorite that has since lost momentum, Paul Thomas Anderson, (The Master) or Michael Haneke (Amour), who has yet to open his film to American audiences. Unless Zero Dark Thirty and/or Django Unchained blow everybody away, I'm not sure previous winner Kathryn Bigelow (who may be under her own shadow of being over-rewarded recently) and Quentin Tarantino will figure into the race.  There are a couple of other possibilities I threw in only because I haven't seen the films yet.  Silver Linings may also peter out, but I doubt that will figure in if Harvey puts all of his weight behind it.

6. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

7. Juan Antonio Bayona, The Impossible
8. Michael Haneke, Amour

9. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

10. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

11. Gus Van Sant, Promised Land

What do you think?  Is The Master finished?  Or does Anderson have enough good-will with the AMPAS for them to sneak in his box-office underperformer ala The Tree of Life? 

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