Best Actor (Lead/Supporting) Oscar 2013 - September Predictions

With so many previous winners in the Best Actress field, the lead race for me is decidedly different.  In fact, at this point, there is only one in serious contention, Forest Whitaker.  He gives a much better performance (IMO, obviously), than his Oscar-winning role from seven years ago.  To bolster his profile, Lee Daniels' The Butler is officially a hit.  The movie will also likely go onto to a Best Picture nomination if TWC has anything to do with it.  Will it be his frontrunner after all is said and done?  Could Whitaker take home another statue?  Doesn't seem likely as it's difficult to foresee Academy members clamoring for it, but then Christophe Waltz won two Oscars in the course of three years, so isn't anything possible at this point?  Whitaker joins the ranks of given-nominee Robert Redford, for career-best reviews in All Is Lost, with more to arrive shortly.  He has appeared in countless BP-nominees, but has only been nominated once for acting (beating out costar Paul Newman in 1974's The Sting, where his competition was, no joke: Brando, Lemmon, Nicholson, and Pacino).  Lost is one of those films that feels like it's on the precipice of either gaining admission into the BP-race or just falling short.  But, one that seems likely to not even figure into the BP race is Dallas Buyers Club, the movie for which Matthew McConaughey dropped down to an alarmingly low body weight (and we know how Oscah! feels about that).  I had trouble accepting the idea of his getting nominated earlier in the year and now have grown to embrace the prospects of him winning.  If he doesn't get nominated, it will be the snub of the decade, I'm sure.  The other two slots seem more in flux.  I've upped the ante in my belief in Fox Searchlight's 12 Years a Slave, so I might as well take Chiwetel Ejiofor along.  This year boasts the most Oscar-bait regarding black (male) stories, and it would be strange for this category to be lacking in representation, when we've had years in the past with at least two black nominees.  It doesn't help that Whitaker is the only one from this group who is a known entity to The Academy and commercial audiences.  Newbies tend not to overpopulate this race, though 2011 would be an argument for them.  Bruce Dern is going to be a formidable candidate, but American Hustle could still take off in a big way.  And, we can't count Ryan Coogler out, who has been in my Top Five since March, so he's staying in.

Best Actor
1 (+1). Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (-1). Robert Redford, All Is Lost
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
3 (+5). Forest Whitaker, The Butler
Feinberg, ROS
4 (+3). Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave 
TFE, IC
5 (-2). Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station

6 (+4). Bruce Dern, Nebraska (supporting?)
TFE, ROS, IC
7 (-3). Christian Bale, American Hustle
8 (-2). Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
TFE, ROS
9 (+4). Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Feinberg
10 (+18). Joaquin Phoenix, Her

11 (-6). Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
12 (-1). Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Feinberg, IC
13 (+1). Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby
14 (+1). Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
15 (+7). Colin Firth, The Railway Man
16 (+1). Tye Sheridan, Mud (supporting?)
17 (+1). Matt Damon, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
18 (-6). George Clooney, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
19 (-10). Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate
20 (+10). Josh Brolin, Labor Day (supporting?)
21 (-1). Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man (supporting?)
22 (-6). Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
23 (-4). Forrest Whitaker, Black Nativity
24 (+8). Bradley Cooper, American Hustle (supporting?)
25 (+2). Michael Pena, Chavez

The supporting category is pretty open, but you can do worse than go with standout roles in films that are likely to enter the Best Picture race.  There is all this chatter about Daniel Brühl--who actually plays a lead in Rush--so I'm adding him in as well.  I don't know if I'm ready yet for "Oscar nominee Jared Leto," even if he's playing an MTF-trans.  If McConaughey gets snubbed, I doubt Leto is going to figure into the race. And, I still think it's weird that most people don't think August: Osage County is a contender in this category.

Supporting Actor
1 (+1). Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (+2). Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks (lead?)
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
3 (New). Daniel Brühl, Rush (lead?)
IC
4 (New). David Oyelowo, Lee Daniels' The Butler 
5 (+5). Jeremy Renner, American Hustle
TFE

6 (+1). Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
IC
7 (+10). Chris Cooper, August: Osage County
8 (New). Bill Murray, The Monuments Men
9 (+16). George Clooney, Gravity
Feinberg
10 (+19). Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Feinberg, ROS

11 (-8). Benedict Cumberbatch, August: Osage County
12 (+18) Harrison Ford, 42
13 (New).  Geoffrey Rush, The Book Thief
IC
14 (-13). Bruce Dern, Nebraska (lead?)
15 (+13). Steve Carell, Foxcatcher  (lead?)
16 (-8). Josh Brolin, Labor Day (lead?)
Feinberg, ROS
17 (+3). Colin Farrell, Saving Mr. Banks (lead?)
18 (-4). John Goodman, The Monuments Men
19 (-3). Matthew McConaughey, Mud
20 (-11). Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

21 (+1). Tim Roth, Grace of Monaco
22 (-17). Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back
23 (+1). Jean Dujardin, The Monuments Men
24 (-18). Matt Damon, The Monuments Men (lead?)
25 (-13). George Clooney, The Monuments Men (lead?)
26 (+13). Matthew McConaughey, The Wolf of Wall Street
TFE
27 (-16). Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man (lead?)
28 (-7). Javier Bardem, The Counselor
29 (-16). Steve Coogan, Philomena (lead?)
30 (-7). Sean Mahon, Philomena 

31 (-13). Ewan McGregor, August: Osage County
32 (-1). Woody Harrelson, Out of the Furnace
33 (+2). Adam Scott, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
34 (-2). Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners
35 (+3). Benedict Cumberbatch, Twelve Years a Slave

36 (New). John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis
37 (Reentry).  Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
TFE, ROS

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Best Actor (Lead & Supporting) Oscar 2013 - May Predictions

Not much has changed in the Best Actor race, though I'm beginning to warm up to the idea of "Matthew McConaughey, Oscar Nominee."  He could even win.  The shock value of the weight loss might even be enough to consider his nomination a given at this point, even if the movie ends up being terrible.  We'll see.  I just caught him in Mud and he was pretty good.  The Cannes reviews for Oscar Isaac in Inside Llewyn Davis have been decent enough that I feel comfortable with him on top so far, not that I believe he's ultimately going to win.  With Fruitvale Station continuing to chug along and collect great accolades at every station and TWC in his corner, Michael B. Jordan is all but assured a nomination, though it will be interesting to see if Idris Elba will cut into his chances or if Harvey Weinstein will be able to get them both in.  Vulture wrote an article the other day of the possibility of three black men getting into this category and making history, even though I alluded to this possibility over two months ago.  They seem to think Harvey Weinstein could do it single-handedly along with Forest Whitaker in The Butler.  I'm still convinced that Lee Daniels' upcoming release is going to blow chunks, but I'm beginning to wonder if it might have what it takes to make The Academy cave.  I mean, are we looking at another The Help here?  I really believed the stunt-casting of former presidents and first ladies was going to be its death knell, but what I didn't consider is that Whitaker might be able to dodge all of those landmines and capture the film's only nomination, along with perhaps Oprah Winfrey.  I guess we'll know this August.  That being said, I still thing Chiwetel Ejiofor has a much better chance at a nod than at least one of Harvey's guys, though being a former winner certainly will help Whitaker's chances.  One would think Morgan Freeman's relatively recent nod for playing Nelson Mandela might hinder Elba's shot.

Best Actor
1 (--). Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
2 (--). Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
3 (+1). Bruce Dern, Nebraska
4 (+1). Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
5 (+3). Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club


6 (New). Christian Bale, American Hustle
7 (+4). Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
8 (New). Forrest Whitaker, The Butler
9 (New). Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
10 (-1). Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

11 (+18). Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby
12 (-9). Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
13 (+4). Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
14 (New). Matt Damon, The Monuments Men
15 (New). Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
16 (-2). Tye Sheridan, Mud (supporting?)
17 (-10). Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
18 (-8). George Clooney, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
19 (New). Josh Brolin, Labor Day (supporting?)
20 (New). Robert Redford, All Is Lost

21 (New). Miles Teller, The Spectacular Now
22 (New). Ali Mosaffa, The Past
23 (-17). Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate
24 (New). Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man
25 (-7). Daniel Brühl, Rush
26 (-13). Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks (supporting?)
27 (New). Hugh Jackman, Prisoners
28 (-12). Colin Firth, The Railway Man
29 (+10). Colin Firth, Devil's Knot
30 (New). Will Forte, Nebraska (supporting?)

31 (+2). Ralph Fiennes, The Invisible Woman
32 (-1). Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
33 (New). Michael Pena, Chavez
34 (+2). Forrest Whitaker, Black Nativity
35 (New). Colin Farrell, Saving Mr. Banks (supporting?)
36 (+2). Matthew McConaughey, Mud (supporting?)
37 (-18). Casey Affleck, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
38 (-4). Ryan Gosling, Only God Forgives
39 (-25). Jeremy Renner, Lowlife
40 (-6). Bradley Cooper, Serena

41 (-15). Ryan Gosling, The Place Beyond the Pines
42 (-14). Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
43 (-32). Chadwick Boseman, 42
44 (-14). Josh Brolin, Oldboy
45 (-5). Robert DeNiro, Malavita
46 (-14). Chris Hemsworth, Rush (supporting?)
47 (-27). Liam James, The Way Way Back
48 (-21). Christian Bale, Out of the Furnace
49 (-12). Joaquin Phoenix, Her
50 (New). Dennis Quaid, At Any Price

Supporting Actor
1. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks (lead?)
2. Chris Cooper, August: Osage County
3. Will Forte, Nebraska (lead?)
4. Ewan McGregor, August: Osage County
5. Colin Farrell, Saving Mr. Banks (lead?)

6. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
7. Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave
8. Josh Brolin, Labor Day (lead?)
9. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher  (lead?)
10. Benedict Cumberbatch, August: Osage County

11. Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back
12. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
13. John Goodman, The Monuments Men
14. George Clooney, The Monuments Men

[4/19 Note: Forgot Vithaya Pansringarm from Only God Forgives] 

15. Tye Sheridan, Mud (lead?)
16. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
17. Michael Shannon, Man of Steel
18. Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher (lead?)
19. Tim Roth, Grace of Monaco
20. James Franco, Spring Breakers

21. Chris Hemsworth, Rush 
22. Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man (lead?)
23. Matthew McConaughey, Mud
24. Woody Harrelson, Out of the Furnace
25. Benedict Cumberbatch, Twelve Years a Slave
26. Ben Foster, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
27. Tahir Rahim, The Past
28. Harrison Ford, 42
29. Adam Scott, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
30. George Clooney, Gravity

31. Javier Bardem, The Counselor
32. Brad Pitt, The Counselor
33. Terrence Howard, Prisoners
34. Jeremy Renner, American Hustle
35. Matthew McConaughey, The Wolf of Wall Street
36. Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners
37. Joaquin Phoenix, The Immigrant
38. Justin Timberlake, Inside Llewyn Davis
39. Tobey Maguire, The Great Gatsby

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