Best Actress (Lead/Supporting) Oscar 2013 - September Predictions

The Best Actress race is about to get a huge shakeup with the onset of the Venice Film Festival, where Gravity will have its world debut today.  Star Sandra Bullock pretty much is the movie, and if critics fall in love with it, and the box-office follows suit, it will be hard to imagine the race without her.  Ironic, considering that a year ago, I couldn't fathom Bullock ever fitting into an Oscar race again (one and done, I thought).  Kind of foolish if you consider that four years ago, most people including myself never thought she would figure into an Oscar race period, but, then, she blindsided us all.  Now, here we are.  Since the last post, Blue Jasmine has opened and Cate Blanchett, whose role was shrouded in mystery just a few months ago, has become the frontrunner for the lead race, especially in the context of the supposed rumor that her main competition Meryl Streep may go supporting for August: Osage County (if Harvey Weinstein can pull a win for Oprah, I doubt it).  If anything, it has bolstered the idea of Julia Roberts landing a lead nod as an also-ran (she could have won the supporting category, but, then, her role was never supporting to begin with and it seems so silly to have had doubts in the first place).  Amy Adams' placement is still not quite certain, yet, she has the distinction of being the only strong contender at this point who has never won an Oscar (and, further, Blanchett and Judi Dench stand out because they've won supporting and not lead).

Nicole Kidman is looking weaker as each month presses on.  No trailer, no festival announcements as of yet, and she appears to be the only major candidate not appearing in a BP-contender.  (Another Harvey girl Dench might be added to that short list.)  In this respect, Streep, Roberts, Adams, Bullock, and Emma Thompson seem the strongest.  Blanchett's Jasmine could also make a run for Best Picture.  I'd pin Adèle Exarchopoulos, the only serious newcomer we can see on the horizon thus far, as a dark horse.

Lead Actress
1 (+3). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine 
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (-1). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (supporting?)
IC
3 (+9). Amy Adams, American Hustle (supporting?)
TFE, ROS
4 (+4). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County 
ROS
5 (-3). Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco

6 (+11). Sandra Bullock, Gravity
TFE, Feinberg, IC
7 (-1). Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
8 (-1). Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color
9 (-6). Judi Dench, Philomena 
TFE, Feinberg, IC
10 (+25). Mia Wasikowska, Tracks

11. (+5). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers; 2014?
12 (+6). Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Feinberg, ROS
13 (+2). Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
14 (-9). Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man
15 (-4). Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse
16 (-7). Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
17 (New). Brie Larson, Short Term 12
18 (New). Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
19 (+5). Bérénice Bejo, The Past
20 (+14). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (supporting?)

21 (+15). Jessica Chastain, Miss Julie (perhaps a late 2013 surprise)
22 (+15). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot (supporting?)
23 (+15). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (supporting?)
24 (-14). Naomi Watts, Diana
25 (-11). Kirsten Dunst, The Two Faces of January
26 (-5). Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
27 (-14). Dakota Fanning, Effie Gray
28 (-3). Rebecca Hall, A Promise 
29 (+13). Emmanuelle Seigner, Venus in Fur
30 (+13). Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
31 (+14). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His
32 (+14). Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall
33 (+15). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker

Supporting Actress
While the lead race is about "Who to take out?" the supporting actress category seems like, "Who to put in?"  Oprah Winfrey really is only the safe bet at this point for a nod.  The question is: will The Academy want to award her a competitive Oscar?  The only reference that comes to mind is Cher, but, at least when Moonstruck came out, while it was only the pop star's sixth proper movie, she had been in the biz fronting as an actress for a good five years, so her sparse film acting resume didn't seem so spread out like The Big O's.  But, Winfrey has been nominated before like Cher was before she won, and all of her three films have a "respectability" factor.  But, I get the naysayers who suggest that she might be too big for The Academy.  If that's the case, a desperate Weinstein could end up placing Streep in supporting.  But, I'm not going to bet on it.  I probably won't even consider her until it becomes official or it's late December, which ever comes first.

As far as other nominees, Spencer as an actress may now be the surest nomination for Fruitvale Station, though I could see her dropping out if Weinstein inexplicable decides to bag on the movie.  Sally Hawkins, who came close to an acting nod in 2008, is a definite contender as a coattail nominee to the likely Best Actress winner Blanchett, but by no means a sure-thing.  I still can't shake the idea of August disappointing in the nomination department for actors.  It's hard to believe it may only get two.  Part of my vision right now if things go exceptionally well for the film is two in each actress category.
As far as those supporting actress hopefuls who aren't backed by Weinstein, besides Hawkins, we have Cameron Diaz.  She's been passed over by the AMPAS a couple of times over a decade ago.  She doesn't have a sweetheart factor like Bullock or Roberts, but she is one of the few actresses who can open a movie and she did so recently on her name alone with Bad Teacher, seventeen years after she made her film debut in The Mask with Jim Carrey.  I suspect she's going to knock people's socks off in The Counselor.  There's a blend of humor and intrigue that is probably going to have people talking, but the type of role itself is one that doesn't get acknowledged by The Academy often enough.  So, Diaz has some quite polarizing elements that are going to work for and against her.  But, if she's not going to be making a run for the crown, one might surmise that she has no chance of getting in, in the first place.  But, I'm probably just deluding myself on even entertaining that Diaz has a chance to begin with.

I'm probably underestimating the "afterglow" effect as far as recent winner Jennifer Lawrence's chances go.  It just seems like too much, too soon, but what do I know?  It's not like she's Meryl Streep (she did beat her at the Golden Globes, though).  June Squibb may have people talking with her performance, but it would be kind of odd for her to get in and not her movie's main star Bruce Dern for Best Actor (he definitely has a shot, though).  As far as trying to fill out the top five, you can do much worse than go with someone from what you think will be a likely Best Picture contender.

1 (+7). Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
TFE, Feinberg, ROS, IC
2 (--). Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
TFE, IC
3 (+4). Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
4 (-1). Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
ROS, IC
5 (+21). Lupito Nyong'O, Twelve Years a Slave
Feinberg, ROS, IC

6 (-5). Amy Adams, American Hustle (lead?)
7 (New). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (lead?)
TFE, Feinberg, ROS
8 (-2). June Squibb, Nebraska
IC
9 (-5). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor 
TFE
10 (+3). Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
TFE, Feinberg

11 (+10). Julianne Nicholson, August: Osage County
12 (+5). Annie Rose Buckley, Saving Mr. Banks
13 (-3). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (lead?)
Feinberg
14 (-9). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men
15 (New).  Rachel Griffiths, Saving Mr. Banks
16 (+4). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (lead?)
17 (+17). Helen Bonham Carter, The Young and Prodigious Spivet
18 (+23). Amy Adams, Her
19 (+5). Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
20 (-11). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (lead?)

21 (New). Léa Seydoux, Blue Is the Warmest Color
22 (+7). Jessica Lange, Thérèse
23 (-11). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
ROS

24 (+8). Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
25 (+5). Viola Davis, Prisoners
26 (-4). Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
27 (+1). Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
28 (-9). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
29 (-13). Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyer's Club
30 (-19). Alison Janney, The Way, Way Back
31 (+8). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
32 (-5). Adepero Udeye, Twelve Years a Slave

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Best Lead / Supporting Actress Oscar 2013 - July Predictions

Well, this has been a truly crazy year for the Best Actress race (and it hasn't really gotten underway, yet).  Last year, there were seemingly so few options.  This year, there's a decent amount, but, oddly, they're all mostly former winners, whether in the lead or supporting race.  And, as history has dictated, there are so many that can fit in, especially leads.  But rules are meant to be broken, right?  Still, Meryl Streep is a lock.  She has been since she was cast.  The question is: how will her costar Julia Roberts be campaigned.  She has gotten strong early word in the less showy role, and has the greatest arc.  Will/can she be campaigned as supporting?  Thanks to a few others, I'm having my doubts again.  But, if she's campaigned as lead, I just don't see her getting in.  Nicole Kidman probably figured The Academy wouldn't nominate her unless she classed it up.  It's just hard for me to imagine that after going through all the trouble of getting Grace of Monaco off the ground, she's going to fall short.  She wants this.  She has all of her ducks in a row.  I guess the only question is if her guy Harvey Weinstein has sabotaged her chances with too many candidates under his guide.  He already had a full plate, yet he still laid down $6.5M for Philomena, a huge vote of confidence if there was one, which speaks to Judi Dench's chances.  Their collaborations have resulted in five nominations and one win.  Can he pull a hat-trick?  He has done it before.  But that still leaves the non-Weinstein-backed former winners like Cate Blanchett, whose film opens in less than a month, and Emma Thompson, who is viewed by some as unambitious when it comes to campaigning.

It's quite possible that every nominee in the category this year already has an Oscar or two or three under her belt.  I'm still holding out that we'll have one who doesn't, perhaps never even having reached the nomination level.  But, then, personal bias gets in the way.  Obviously, I would love to see Rachel McAdams or Elizabeth Olsen get nominated, especially for stellar work.  But, it's wishful thinking in a vacuum with nothing to replace it.

Lead Actress
1 (+1). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
2 (-1). Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
3 (+26). Judi Dench, Philomena 
4 (+3). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine 
5 (+9). Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man

6 (-2). Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
7 (New). Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color
8 (-2). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (supporting?)
9 (+6). Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
10 (-7). Naomi Watts, Diana

11 (-3). Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse
12 (New). Amy Adams, American Hustle (supporting?)
13 (+22). Dakota Fanning, Effie
14 (New). Kirsten Dunst, The Two Faces of January
15 (-2). Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
16. (-5). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers; 2014?
17 (+1). Sandra Bullock, Gravity
18 (-9). Kate Winslet, Labor Day
19 (+12). Jessica Brown Findlay, Winter's Tale
20 (-15). Zoe Saldana, Nina

21 (-4). Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
22 (+3). Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby
23 (+9). Annette Bening, The Face of Love
24 (New). Bérénice Bejo, The Past
25 (-1). Rebecca Hall, A Promise 
26 (+14). Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
27 (-11). Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
28 (-7). Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
29 (-10). Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
30 (-8). Rooney Mara, Ain't Them Bodies Saints

31 (+7). Robin Weigert, Concussion
32 (-12). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men (supporting?)
33 (+3). Julianne Hough, Paradise
34 (-11). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (supporting?)
35 (+6). Mia Wasikowska, Tracks
36 (New). Jessica Chastain, Miss Julie (perhaps a late 2013 surprise)
37 (+7). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot (supporting?)
38 (-10). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (supporting?)
39 (-27). Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace
40 (-1). Kristen Wiig, Girl Most Likely (formerly Imogene)

41 (+1). Lily Rabe, The First (2014?)
42 (-5). Emmanuelle Seigner, Venus in Fur
43 (-10). Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
44 (-10). Michelle Pfeiffer, The Family (supporting?)
45 (-2). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His
46 (-1). Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall

46 (--). Robin Wright, Adore
47 (--). Mia Wasikowska, Madame Bovary
48 (--). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
49 (+6). Scarlett Johansson, Under the Skin
50 (+1). Lake Bell, In a World ...
51 (+2). Hilary Swank, You're Not You
53 (+1). Keri Russell, Austenland 

The supporting race is filled with more polarizing options currently.  There are some indicators that Cameron Diaz could finally experience her big Oscar break.  She's directed by Ridley Scott who isn't immune from getting some of his actors nominations.  And, while he doesn't have any major heat coming off from any of his most recent movies, he does have a sporadicly consistent history with the AMPAS over the last three decades.  The role, primarily is a doozy.  It plays to Diaz' strengths on a couple of levels, so, to me, there is a high probability that she will deliver the goods.  The bigger question is the part, which is hard to discuss without getting into spoilery territory.  But, it's safe to say it's a very sexually confident role, which doesn't win favor very often with The Academy.  And, the archetype she plays also doesn't have a very good track record.  Couple that with Diaz' lack of nomination history, and her case begins to fall apart.  However, I find personal bias clouding my judgment, and it's hard to discern just how genuine her probabilities are.  I find myself impressing upon her long record of commercial viability.  She's one of the few female Hollywood stars that have an established drawing power, as well as having opened a movie on her own (Bad Teacher) to high returns. This may mean very little ultimately to the awards circuit, as she's not Julia Roberts, Reese Witherspoon, or Sandra Bullock, but I just find her underrated and would love to see her get a little recognition.  But, hey, if The Globes wouldn't even recognize her for a slam-dunk comedic performance in Teacher (they went with Jodie Foster and Kate Winslet in the little seen, and unimpressive Carnage; and it's not like they haven't gone for Roberts, Witherspoon, Bullock, or Meg Ryan in lesser films in the past), than perhaps the plume really is off her rose.

Another polarizing option is Oprah Winfrey.  She was welcomed by the AMPAS in the much-nominated The Color Purple (1985) before she became an international media mogul.  When she gave the world "her baby" in Jonathan Demme's Beloved in 1998, audiences, critics, and The Academy rejected it.  Now, the director of Precious Lee Daniels is back with the very baity The Butler.  It looks like a steaming pile of something else (I guaranteed it wouldn't be a player; now, I may have to eat crow), but, The Help looked like a Lifetime movie in its initial trailer and it did very well for itself.  On one hand, the stunt casting of several generations of presidents and first ladies gives one pause, but, then you have Harvey Weinstein trying to recreate The Help's success with an obvious release date strategy exactly two years later to the weekend for a film with black leads, and servant relationships to their employer.  Winfrey, however, has already recently received an honorary Oscar.  And, unlike Cher, for instance, the media personality hasn't been building up industry good-will towards a possible win.  I don't know.  I'd bet on Diaz before Winfrey, because I'm stubborn.

The safest choice, held by many is four-times-nominated Amy Adams, because director David O. Russell has gotten her (as well as many others) a very recent nod.  Some seem to believe she could go lead, though I haven't heard one convincing argument that isn't based on some fantasy scenario.  If they threw the original script out the window and completely beefed up her role, than it's a possibility. But no one has actually come out and said that yet.  A more ambiguous situation is Julia Roberts.  While her Barbara Weston in August is clearly a lead (she will likely have the most screen time, the biggest arc, and has solid word from people who have seen early screenings), she'll be overshadowed by the showier performance from her elder Meryl Streep, who is most definitely getting a lead nod.  Further complicating the situation, is distributor TWC with obligations to both Best Actress frontrunners Philomena and Grace of Monaco.  Not that Roberts ever plays second banana to other women, I can imagine her willing to do it for some reason, though just how Weinstein is going to commit category fraud in order to get it accomplished is beyond me.  She's not a kid or grandpa, which would make it an easier sell.  It would be weird for her to not get flat-out nominated, but, I guess it's what I'm almost saying here.  Though if Dench or Kidman falter, Roberts would quite easily slip in.

The surest choice, at this point, is recent winner Octavia Spencer.  Strong reviews in a Weinstein picture that is very likely to land in many major categories gives her an edge that no one else holds at present.  Blue Jasmine will be coming out soon, and the excitement the trailer has generated for Cate Blanchett has rubbed off a little on Sally Hawkins, who won a Golden Globe five years ago for her superb work in happy-go-lucky, but narrowly missed out on Oscar recognition.

Supporting Actress
1  (+3). Amy Adams, American Hustle
2 (--). Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale
3 (-2). Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
4. (+1). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor 
5 (+6). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men

6 (-3). June Squibb, Nebraska
7 (+14). Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
8 (+6). Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
9. (-3). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (lead?)
10 (-2). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (lead?)

11 (+2). Alison Janney, The Way, Way Back
12 (+8). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
13 (+5). Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
14 (+8). Annette Bening, Girl Most Likely
15 (New). Carice Van Houten, The Fifth Estate
16 (+9). Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyer's Club

17 (+2). Annie Rose Buckley, Saving Mr. Banks
18 (+38). Nicole Kidman, Stoker
19 (-2). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
20 (-8). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (lead?)

21 (+10). Julianne Nicholson, August: Osage County
22 (-13). Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
23 (+6). Robin Wright, A Most Wanted Man
24 (+8). Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
25 (-9). Rosie Perez, The Counselor
26 (+9). Lupito Nyong'O, Twelve Years a Slave
27 (+13). Adepero Udeye, Twelve Years a Slave
28 (+18). Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
29 (+18). Jessica Lange, Thérèse
30 (-2). Viola Davis, Prisoners

31 (+5). Elizabeth Olsen, Oldboy
32 (+6). Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
33 (-3). Isla Fischer, The Great Gatsby
34 (-10). Helen Bonham Carter, The Young and Prodigious Spivet
35 (+7). Mario Bello, Prisoners
36 (-2). Sienna Miller, Foxcatcher
37 (+14). Amy Adams, Lullaby
38 (+3). Juliette Lewis, August: Osage County
39 (-16). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
40 (+5). Abigail Breslin, August: Osage County

41 (+9). Amy Adams, Her
42 (-5). Melissa Leo, Prisoners
43 (+11). Gwyneth Paltrow, Thanks for Sharing
44 (-17). Pauline Burlet, The Past
45 (-19). Penélope Cruz, The Counselor
46 (-31). Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher
47 (-37). Kristin Scott Thomas, Only God Forgives
48 (+5). Helen Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
49 (-1). Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
50 (-7). Reese Witherspoon, Mud

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Best Actress (Lead & Supporting) Oscar 2013 - May Predictions

In a year with so many gimmees, I didn't realize it could be so difficult to sort through.  The Best Actress race really is no clear now than a few months ago.  There are ample clues, unlike 2012; it's just the clues all seem to blend together: biopics, former Best Actress winners, and TWC.  If there is one actress who at least hits all three boxes, it's Nicole Kidman.  But, even then, her role as Grace Kelly doesn't sound baity at all.  And, who knows, perhaps by some inconceivable stroke, Meryl Streep will be campaigned for supporting in August: Osage County.  The reality is that she, along with Julia Roberts' role, are leads.  But, Harvey Weinstein will probably figure out a way to separate them even if it means inventing a third category.  It doesn't help that Emma Thompson is another former Best Actress winner.  Nor does it help that Nina could end up on HBO for all we know.  (No one else seems to be predicting her anyway, so why do I still include her?)  Or, there seems to be more category confusion than ever!  Could Amy Adams possibly enter the lead category?  The script I read certainly was old.  Though, I just can't imagine how they could beef up her role without compromising the integrity of the story.

Lead Actress
1 (+1). Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
2 (-1). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (supporting?)
3 (--). Naomi Watts, Diana
4 (+11). Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks (supporting?)
5 (-1). Zoe Saldana, Nina

6 (--). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (supporting?)
7 (+14). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (supporting?)
8 (+7). Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse
9 (+1). Kate Winslet, Labor Day
10 (New). Bérénice Bejo, The Past

11. (-6). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers; 2014?
12 (-1). Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace
13 (+24). Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
14 (-5). Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man
15 (-7). Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
16 (+3). Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
17 (+1). Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
18 (-1). Sandra Bullock, Gravity
19 (-7). Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
20 (-13). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men (supporting?)

21 (-7). Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
22 (+18). Rooney Mara, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
23 (New). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (supporting?)
24 (+19). Rebecca Hall, A Promise 
25 (+4). Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby
26 (New). Malin Akerman, CBGB
27 (New). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor (supporting?)
28 (New). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (supporting?)
29 (-9). Judi Dench, Philomena (2014?)
30 (New). Oprah Winfrey, The Butler (supporting?)

31 (-6). Jessica Brown Findlay, Winter's Tale
32 (-1). Annette Bening, Look of Love
33 (-1). Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
34 (+18). Michelle Pfeiffer, Malavita
35 (--). Dakota Fanning, Effie
36 (New). Julianne Hough, Paradise
37 (-14). Emmanuelle Seigner, Venus in Fur
38 (-12). Robin Weigert, Concussion
39 (--). Kristen Wiig, Girl Most Likely (formerly Imogene)
40 (-6). Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha

41 (-11). Mia Wasikowska, Tracks
42 (-18). Lily Rabe, The First (2014?)
43 (+1). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His
44 (+1). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot (supporting?)
45 (+6). Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall
46 (-18). Robin Wright, Two Mothers
47 (-14). Mia Wasikowska, Madame Bovary
48 (+1). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
49 (-1). Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
50 (-12). Naomi Watts, Sunlight, Jr.

51 (-5). Lake Bell, In a World ...
52 (-5). Gwyneth Paltrow, 33 días
53 (+1). Hilary Swank, You're Not You
54 (+5). Keri Russell, Austenland 
55 (+3). Scarlett Johansson, Under the Skin
56 (--). Naomi Watts, Two Mothers
57 (-18). Elle Fanning, Ginger & Rosa
58 (-36). Annette Bening, The Great (2014?)
59 (-32). Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion (2014?)
60 (-10). Penélope Cruz, Twice Born

61 (-25). Emma Watson, The Bling Ring
62 (-46). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis (supporting?)
63 (-8). Jessica Biel, Emanuel and the Truth About Fishes
64 (-7). Kaya Scodelario, Emanuel and the Truth About Fishes


Supporting Actress
1 (--). Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
2 (+3). Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale
3. (New). June Squibb, Nebraska
4. (New). Amy Adams, American Hustle
5. (+5). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor (lead?)

6. (--). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (lead?)
7 (--). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (lead?)
8 (+15). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (lead?)
9 (New). Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
10 (-6). Kristin Scott Thomas, Only God Forgives

11 (-3). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men
12 (New). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (lead?)
13 (-4). Alison Janney, The Way, Way Back
14 (+23). Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
15 (New). Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher

16 (New). Rosie Perez, The Counselor
17 (--). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
18 (New). Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
19 (New). Annie Rose Buckley, Saving Mr. Banks
20 (-18). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis

21 (-10). Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
22 (-8). Annette Bening, Girl Most Likely
23 (+3). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
24 (-9). Helen Bonham Carter, The Young and Prodigious Spivet
25 (+5). Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyer's Club
26 (-1). Penélope Cruz, The Counselor
27 (New). Pauline Burlet, The Past
28 (New). Viola Davis, Prisoners
29 (-13). Robin Wright, A Most Wanted Man
30 (-12). Isla Fischer, The Great Gatsby

31 (-2). Julianne Nicholson, August: Osage County
32 (-19). Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
33 (New). Laura Linney, The Fifth Estate
34 (-31). Sienna Miller, Foxcatcher
35 (New). Lupito Nyong'O, Twelve Years a Slave
36 (-15). Elizabeth Olsen, Oldboy
37 (New). Melissa Leo, Prisoners
38 (-16). Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
39 (New). Gemma Arterton, Runner, Runner
40 (New). Adepero Udeye, Twelve Years a Slave

41 (-14). Juliette Lewis, August: Osage County
42 (New). Mario Bello, Prisoners
43 (New). Reese Witherspoon, Mud
44 (-29). Leslie Mann, The Bling Ring
45 (-12). Abigail Breslin, August: Osage County
46 (-15). Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
47 (-28). Jessica Lange, Thérèse
48 (-20). Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
49 (-29). Naomi Watts, Two Mothers
50 (-26). Amy Adams, Her

51 (-17). Amy Adams, Lullaby
52 (-30). Jennifer Hudson, The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete
53 (-17). Helen Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
54 (-16). Gwyneth Paltrow, Thanks for Sharing
55 (New). Zoe Saldana, Out of the Furnace
56 (-21). Nicole Kidman, Stoker

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Best Supporting Actress 2013: Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man

The screenplay comes from Frank Cottrell Boyce and Andy Paterson (the team behind Hilary and Jackie) who adapted Eric Lomax's autobiographical novel about a World War II POW (played partly by Colin Firth), who must make peace with his past.  Nicole Kidman plays the wife of the older version of his character.  The part could be lead or supporting, though I'd wager the latter (I haven't read the book).  Rachel Weisz was originally cast, but when scheduling conflicts prevented her from taking the role, Firth personally asked Kidman to replace her.  The cast includes Stellan Skarsgard.  The crew includes composer David Hirschfelder (Elizabeth, Shine), as well as a host of others who worked on director Jonathan Teplitzky's Burning Man.  Filmed last year in London, Scotland, and Australia, on a budget of $26M, the movie will most definitely release sometime this year.  Does brown hair tend to play down Kidman's looks?  (Think the Diane Arbus film.)  It also seems to distract from her facial enhancements.  Or is it me?

Check out more Best Actress 2013 contenders

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Best Supporting Actress 2013: Margo Martindale, August: Osage County

Rondi Reed (left) originated August: Osage County's Mattie Fae Aiken role
in Chicago and later won a Tony, as well as making a reprise in the London
production; Margo Martindale (right) plays the part in the film version

Well, after hanging out at AD, the subject of August: Osage County came up, so I suppose now is as good of a time as any to break the seal on Margo Martindale's Oscar chances. I can't rightly say that she will win a year from now.  HOWEVER, I am willing to bet serious money that she will be nominated at a minimum for August.  The role is a doozy and she's starring in Harvey Weinstein's crown jewel for next year's Oscar season.  Part of her chances of winning will involve just how exactly Julia Roberts will be campaigned.  Roberts' other awards-grab-in-the-making The Normal Heart has just become an HBO-venture instead of a motion picture, so I imagine August to be the wide-mouthed actresses' only shot at any Oscar attention for a while.  Her role in the play, along with Meryl Streep's, is technically a lead.  Although, if push comes to shove, it's Streep's Viola Weston who is at the center of everything.  We don't know how the movie will play out, but even if it stays true to its theatrical roots, category fraud could very easily come into play.  Will Roberts stand to be campaigned for anything less than lead?  There hasn't been a double-billed lead actress Oscar campaign since Thelma & Louise.  Everything that has come closest since (namely Chicago, The Hours) has had some kind of legitimate justification for splitting up the actresses, or faced stiff competition in getting both of its ladies in (The Kids Are All Right).

But, without a doubt, Martindale will be supporting.  Her movie career dates back to the early 90s.  She has worked with Tom Cruise, Sandra Bullock, and Susan Sarandon a couple of times each in small roles, and became one of those faces you just recognize.  She raised her profile by appearing as Hilary Swank's white trash money-hungry mother in Million Dollar Baby and continued to work in films, as well as getting a featured role on the TV show The Riches.  But, it wasn't until her role on the series Justified (she won an Emmy a year ago) did larger audiences begin paying more attention specifically to her.  At age 61, she is hitting the peak of her career and will become an even more popular entity when August lands sometime this year and people get a look at her Mattie Fae Aiken.  As far as Martindale is concerned, there are only four slots available in her category, because she has already parked herself in one of them.  Do you think Grandma Smurf might have it in for her?  Margo can rest easy, for now.  The mafia matriarch is currently preoccupied with one Anne Hathaway.

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