Best Actress (Lead & Supporting) Oscar 2013 - May Predictions

In a year with so many gimmees, I didn't realize it could be so difficult to sort through.  The Best Actress race really is no clear now than a few months ago.  There are ample clues, unlike 2012; it's just the clues all seem to blend together: biopics, former Best Actress winners, and TWC.  If there is one actress who at least hits all three boxes, it's Nicole Kidman.  But, even then, her role as Grace Kelly doesn't sound baity at all.  And, who knows, perhaps by some inconceivable stroke, Meryl Streep will be campaigned for supporting in August: Osage County.  The reality is that she, along with Julia Roberts' role, are leads.  But, Harvey Weinstein will probably figure out a way to separate them even if it means inventing a third category.  It doesn't help that Emma Thompson is another former Best Actress winner.  Nor does it help that Nina could end up on HBO for all we know.  (No one else seems to be predicting her anyway, so why do I still include her?)  Or, there seems to be more category confusion than ever!  Could Amy Adams possibly enter the lead category?  The script I read certainly was old.  Though, I just can't imagine how they could beef up her role without compromising the integrity of the story.

Lead Actress
1 (+1). Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
2 (-1). Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (supporting?)
3 (--). Naomi Watts, Diana
4 (+11). Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks (supporting?)
5 (-1). Zoe Saldana, Nina

6 (--). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (supporting?)
7 (+14). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (supporting?)
8 (+7). Elizabeth Olsen, Thérèse
9 (+1). Kate Winslet, Labor Day
10 (New). Bérénice Bejo, The Past

11. (-6). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers; 2014?
12 (-1). Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace
13 (+24). Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
14 (-5). Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man
15 (-7). Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
16 (+3). Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
17 (+1). Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
18 (-1). Sandra Bullock, Gravity
19 (-7). Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
20 (-13). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men (supporting?)

21 (-7). Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
22 (+18). Rooney Mara, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
23 (New). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (supporting?)
24 (+19). Rebecca Hall, A Promise 
25 (+4). Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby
26 (New). Malin Akerman, CBGB
27 (New). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor (supporting?)
28 (New). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (supporting?)
29 (-9). Judi Dench, Philomena (2014?)
30 (New). Oprah Winfrey, The Butler (supporting?)

31 (-6). Jessica Brown Findlay, Winter's Tale
32 (-1). Annette Bening, Look of Love
33 (-1). Shirley MacLaine, Elsa & Fred
34 (+18). Michelle Pfeiffer, Malavita
35 (--). Dakota Fanning, Effie
36 (New). Julianne Hough, Paradise
37 (-14). Emmanuelle Seigner, Venus in Fur
38 (-12). Robin Weigert, Concussion
39 (--). Kristen Wiig, Girl Most Likely (formerly Imogene)
40 (-6). Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha

41 (-11). Mia Wasikowska, Tracks
42 (-18). Lily Rabe, The First (2014?)
43 (+1). Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His
44 (+1). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot (supporting?)
45 (+6). Kate Beckinsale, The Trials of Cate McCall
46 (-18). Robin Wright, Two Mothers
47 (-14). Mia Wasikowska, Madame Bovary
48 (+1). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
49 (-1). Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
50 (-12). Naomi Watts, Sunlight, Jr.

51 (-5). Lake Bell, In a World ...
52 (-5). Gwyneth Paltrow, 33 días
53 (+1). Hilary Swank, You're Not You
54 (+5). Keri Russell, Austenland 
55 (+3). Scarlett Johansson, Under the Skin
56 (--). Naomi Watts, Two Mothers
57 (-18). Elle Fanning, Ginger & Rosa
58 (-36). Annette Bening, The Great (2014?)
59 (-32). Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion (2014?)
60 (-10). Penélope Cruz, Twice Born

61 (-25). Emma Watson, The Bling Ring
62 (-46). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis (supporting?)
63 (-8). Jessica Biel, Emanuel and the Truth About Fishes
64 (-7). Kaya Scodelario, Emanuel and the Truth About Fishes


Supporting Actress
1 (--). Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
2 (+3). Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale
3. (New). June Squibb, Nebraska
4. (New). Amy Adams, American Hustle
5. (+5). Cameron Diaz, The Counselor (lead?)

6. (--). Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (lead?)
7 (--). Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (lead?)
8 (+15). Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (lead?)
9 (New). Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
10 (-6). Kristin Scott Thomas, Only God Forgives

11 (-3). Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men
12 (New). Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (lead?)
13 (-4). Alison Janney, The Way, Way Back
14 (+23). Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
15 (New). Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher

16 (New). Rosie Perez, The Counselor
17 (--). Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
18 (New). Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
19 (New). Annie Rose Buckley, Saving Mr. Banks
20 (-18). Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis

21 (-10). Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
22 (-8). Annette Bening, Girl Most Likely
23 (+3). Samantha Morton, Decoding Annie Parker
24 (-9). Helen Bonham Carter, The Young and Prodigious Spivet
25 (+5). Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyer's Club
26 (-1). Penélope Cruz, The Counselor
27 (New). Pauline Burlet, The Past
28 (New). Viola Davis, Prisoners
29 (-13). Robin Wright, A Most Wanted Man
30 (-12). Isla Fischer, The Great Gatsby

31 (-2). Julianne Nicholson, August: Osage County
32 (-19). Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
33 (New). Laura Linney, The Fifth Estate
34 (-31). Sienna Miller, Foxcatcher
35 (New). Lupito Nyong'O, Twelve Years a Slave
36 (-15). Elizabeth Olsen, Oldboy
37 (New). Melissa Leo, Prisoners
38 (-16). Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
39 (New). Gemma Arterton, Runner, Runner
40 (New). Adepero Udeye, Twelve Years a Slave

41 (-14). Juliette Lewis, August: Osage County
42 (New). Mario Bello, Prisoners
43 (New). Reese Witherspoon, Mud
44 (-29). Leslie Mann, The Bling Ring
45 (-12). Abigail Breslin, August: Osage County
46 (-15). Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
47 (-28). Jessica Lange, Thérèse
48 (-20). Helen Hunt, Decoding Annie Parker
49 (-29). Naomi Watts, Two Mothers
50 (-26). Amy Adams, Her

51 (-17). Amy Adams, Lullaby
52 (-30). Jennifer Hudson, The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete
53 (-17). Helen Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
54 (-16). Gwyneth Paltrow, Thanks for Sharing
55 (New). Zoe Saldana, Out of the Furnace
56 (-21). Nicole Kidman, Stoker