Best Actress 2013: Rachel McAdams, A Most Wanted Man

Rachel McAdams is one of those actresses who is constantly on the brink of "happening."  After a long hot streak, hiatus, and then stumbling back into the swing of things, 2012 gave her a comeback story with a box-office hit (The Vow) and a Best Picture nominee (Midnight in Paris).  Now, whether or not she'll capitalize on it is yet unforeseen.  She landed an intriguing thriller with Brian DePalma opposite Noomi Rapace, but, unfortunately, the early word from TIFF wasn't that promising.  And should we really have held our breaths with DePalma?  Her role in Terrence Malick's To the Wonder is apparently small.  She has the female lead in Richard Curtis' About Time, which sounds like a comedy-drama version of The Time Traveler's Wife.  Curtis wrote and directed Love Actually and Pirate Radio, and may strike gold at the box-office.  Her baitiest project this year, however, seems to with Scandinavian director Anton Corbijn, who has shown to be quite capable with Control and The American.  He is behind Andrew Bovell's (Edge of Darkness) adaptation of John le Carré's A Most Wanted Man.  The author's novels have been around for a while, but it hasn't been until the last ten years that he has been getting the five-star treatment in cinema with recent film versions of The Constant Gardener and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.  Set in Hamburg (and filmed on location, as well as in Berlin), McAdams plays German civil rights lawyer Annabel Richter who takes on the case of a young Chechen illegal immigrant (Grigoriy Dobrygin) whose identity is shrouded in a air of mystery.  The story is inspired by real life events involving a Turk Murat Kurnaz arrested in Pakistan and detained and tortured at multiple internment facilities.  The cast includes Philip Seymour Hoffman, Robin Wright, and Willem Dafoe.  Crew includes cinematographer Benoit Delhomme (The Proposition), and editor Claire Simpson (Platoon, Wall Street, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Nine, The Reader, The Constant Gardener).

I've been waiting for this girl to find the right role and get nominated for years.  I can see it happening.  I can also see her messing up the accent, so who knows.  McAdams excels in contemporary roles, and has attempted less modern fare in Sherlock Holmes (which, whether because of her performance and/or the film, left much to be desired) and Married Life (which failed to impress many).  Amy Adams, Carey Mulligan, and Jessica Chastain were all considered for her part.  No US distributor or release date is set for the film.

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Best Art Direction 2012 Oscar Prediction: Anna Karenina

The Gold Derby pundits are almost split down the middle on Art Direction (Production Design) for 2012.  It's Anna Karenina vs. Les Misérables.  Now, I haven't seen the former, but it looks absolutely gorgeous.  And, though I loved the latter, I can't say that I found its production design as having any wow factor.  Surely the ship in the introduction, as well as the bridge Javert walks across were beautiful, but, whether for budgetary or other reasons, I found the sets more intimate and less epic.  While that may have been the point, it influences any inclination to predict it for this category.  Tom O'Neil and Sasha Stone have Life of Pi pegged, which strikes me as a dark horse contender.  For a film set in the middle of the ocean, it was visually striking, even outside of the visual effects.  Thom Geler and Anne Thompson are calling Lincoln, which, to me, would only win via a sweep.  A wasted call, in my opinion.  No one is predicting The Hobbit, with most figuring it for fifth place.

The winner often goes to a BP nominee, but it's not always a constant. Period and fantasy films always have the edge, though musicals always are strong.  Last year's winner was Dante Ferretti for Hugo, which was recognized by the Art Directors Guild for Period, along with wins from BAFTA, BFCA, LA, San Diego, Phoenix, Florida, and DC.  It pretty much swept everything, which isn't always a guarantee for an Oscar.  Inception carried the lion's share of precursors, but still had the carpet pulled from underneath its feet by Alice in Wonderland, which didn't win anything until the night at The Academy.  But, the studio backing it infamously warned it was going to drive a hard Oscar campaign (with foolish dreams of a Best Picture nod).

At this point, the smart money is on Karenina, which also won with BFCA, but it's not like Les Misérables doesn't have a shot.  Karenina also managed some of the critic groups, along with four Oscar nominations total, which indicates strong support beyond the costume and production design categories it was expected to make an appearance in.  This is production designer Sarah Greenwood's fourth nomination, her third for collaborating with director Joe Wright.  It would kind of make poetic sense for her to win.  Les Misérables' Eve Stewart is on her third.  Pi's David Gropman is on his second nomination.  This is fifth nomination of The Hobbit's Dan Hennah, fourth for an LOTR-related film, having won once.  Lincoln's Rick Carter is on his fourth, having also won once.  The Oscar history of these production designers does little to shed light on this situation overall.  The ones who have the best chance are overdue and the ones who are weakest have already been rewarded in the past.

This year, the ADG singled out Karenina and Life of Pi (as well as Skyfall).  Oscar winners that didn't get recognized by the group (which wasn't always broken down into three groups): Alice in Wonderland, Sweeney Todd, The Aviator, Chicago, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon; Shakespeare in Love.  FFCC also chose Anna Karenina.  The past movie they didn't predict winning Oscar: Alice in Wonderland.  It might be telling to see who BAFTA chooses, or perhaps it won't.  Oscar winners that didn't get recognized by the BFCA: Alice in Wonderland.  They nominated all of the Oscar nominees this year but The Hobbit.

LAFCA handed it to The Master this year, which isn't even nominated.  Other Oscar winners it didn't predict: Alice in Wonderland, Avatar, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Sweeney Todd, Memoirs of a Geisha, Chicago, Shakespeare in Love, The English Patient, Restoration, The Madness of King George.  LCCF also chose The Master.

SDFCS went with the unnominated  Cloud Atlas.  Films they failed to predict: Alice in Wonderland, Avatar, Pan's Labyrinth, Memoirs of a Geisha, Chicago.  WDCAFCA also went with Cloud Atlas.  They didn't serve as a predictor for: Alice in Wonderland, Avatar, Pan's Labyrinth.

PFCS chose Moonrise Kingdom, which the AMPAS overlooked. They didn't predict Alice in Wonderland, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Pan's Labyrinth, Memoirs of Geisha, Chicago, Moulin Rouge!

My rationale:

Sarah Greenwood

LOTR has already been rewarded in this category as well as just about every other non-acting field and with few other nominations, love for The Hobbit appears to be weak.  In a year that wealth may be spread, a win for Life of Pi or Lincoln in this category may add too one too many Oscars when they're much more competitive in other categories.  Even with a BAFTA win for production design, a win for Les Misérables may be "too much," though, to a lesser extent.  I wouldn't rule it out.  But, because this is the third go around for the Wright/Greenwood without a win (not that means anything), as well as four total nominations indicating an appreciation for the film, I'm going with Anna Karenina.  It's pretty safe to say that a win for any movie other than Karenina here would be a harbinger for a great night for that particular film.

If I were to break it down by percentages, it would go:
Anna Karenina 45%
Les Misérables 37.5%
Life of Pi 15%
Lincoln 2.5%
The Hobbit 0%

What say you?

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Best Actress 2013: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Woody Allen has put out one film every year since Annie Hall ... which came out in 1977.  That's thirty-five films in thirty-five years.  And many of them great to not half-bad.  Incredible, right?  A few years ago, he stepped up his game by leaving New York City and venturing elsewhere for different backdrops for his stories.  He has paid cinematic visits to London, Barcelona, Paris, Rome, and, now, with his latest, Blue Jasmine, his first American sojourn outside NYC to San Francisco.  Little is known about the plot other than a fashionable New York housewife (presumably played by Cate Blanchett) undergoes a crisis and finds herself living with her sister (presumably played by Sally Hawkins, having previously appeared in Cassandra's Dream) in San Francisco.  Either or both Blanchett and Hawkins are leads.  Allen hasn't earned a leading actress nod in any of his films since the 1970s, though he has collected a series of supporting.  Hawkins narrowly missed out on a nomination in 2008, having won the Golden Globe (Comedy) for Happy-go-lucky.  Blanchett has five nods under her belt, as well as one win.  Having earned four nominations from 2004 - 2007, she hasn't been nominated since, though she was also on the radar in 2008.  Jasmine's eclectic cast includes Alec Baldwin, Peter Sarsgaard, Bobby Cannavale, Louis C.K., Andrew Dice Clay, and Michael Stuhlbarg.  Helen Robin, who has been with Allen since Another Woman, is producing.  Production Designer Santo Loquasto has been with Allen just as long, having started as a costume designer on some of Allen's earlier films including Stardust Memories.  Cinematographer Javier Aguirresarobe previously worked with Allen on Vicky Cristina Barcelona.  Sony Pictures Classics is distributing.

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Best Actress 2013: Zoe Saldana, Nina

Writer/director Cynthia Mort used to write for Roseanne and Will & Grace.  She'll be making her feature length directing debut with Nina, based on the life of Nina Simone, R&B singer, songwriter and civil rights activist.  It will star Zoe Saldana, who has recently just broken up with Bradley Cooper (again).  Since Avatar and Star Trek, she's had Columbiana (which she headlined) and The Words.  She hasn't had a breakout role, so most film-going audiences really only know her as one of those three-dimensional blue creatures.  Filmed on a budget of $7M budget in Los Angeles, this could change all that perhaps.  Cinematographer is Mihai Malaimare Jr (The Master), Editor is Jonathan Alberts, Costume Design by Magali Guidasci, and Production Design by Missy Stewart (Legally Blonde and Katherine Heigl films).

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Best Actress 2013: Emma Watson, The Bling Ring

Sofia Coppola, who has crafted quite an oeuvre for herself, is back. This time, she's bringing Emma Watson along with her, who, thus far, has enjoyed the rather perfect career.  With the Harry Potter franchise behind her and the world having watched her grow up before the cameras, Watson is seamlessly transferring into the world of adult roles.  With her first part being in My Week with Marilyn, her followup was the small box-office hit The Perks of Being a Wallflower.  I'm not sure about her involvement with the self-referential apocalyptic comedy This Is the End with Seth Rogen and James Franco, but I imagine she'll emerge unscathed with projects like Darren Aronofsky's ambitious Noah (which I have a difficult time imagining as being watchable, but it's Aronofsky, so I'll cross my fingers) and Coppola's promising The Bling Ring.  The title is a reference to a real-life gang of fame-obsessed teenage burglars based out of Calabasas, California, who successfully targeted an assortment of celebrities--like Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, and Orlando Bloom--on a multiple occasions.  Coppola wrote the screenplay of which there appears to be name changes from the real-life counterparts, I'm sure, for legal reasons and/or artistic license.  Leslie Mann and Gavin Rossdale are also in the cast.

Made on a budget of $20M, the movie filmed all over the Southern California area as well as Las Vegas.  New distributor A24 (Ginger & Rosa, Spring Breakers, Charles Swan) will release the film probably sometime in 2013.  Production designer Anne Ross is a Noah Baumbach alum.  This will be editor Sarah Flack's fourth feature film collaboration with Coppola.  Stacey Battat was the costume designer.  And this marks the final film of Harris Savides (Zodiac, The Game, Milk, Birth, Margot at the Wedding) who died this past Fall.

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Best Actress 2013: Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Little is known about Alfonso Cuarón's Gravity.  He cowrote (and coedited/produced) the science fiction drama with son Jonás and Rodrigo Garcia (Mother and Child, Albert Nobbs) concerning surviving astronauts of a damaged space station.  Angelina Jolie and Robert Downey, Jr both eventually passed on the project, along with Natalie Portman.  Considering that the lead role has also considered Marion Cotillard, as well as Scarlett Johansson and Blake Livelys' names being floated around, the female role seems to either call out for Oscar winner and/or the latest young and pretty thang, which is disconcerting.  But, yeah, the studio has to sell tickets.  But, still, one wonders if the "right fit" was found.  Sandra Bullock and George Clooney eventually took the plunge.  I worry about the commercial prospects of this $80M project which sounds meditative and not unlike 2001: A Space Odyssey or Clooney's Solaris remake.  Original fare of this genre are tough sells, especially when the tone is more pensive.  Stories driven by females are even tougher sells.  Director Cuarón was behind Children of Men and Y tu mamá también, and it has been over six years since he has helmed a major motion picture, so this has an almost "make or break" feel to it taking everything else into consideration, including a postponed release date by almost one calendar year, which is now October 4th, with Universal as the distributor.  Filming took place in Lake Powell on the Arizona side and Shepperton Studios in Surrey, England.  Jany Temime designed the costumes for the greater portion of the Harry Potter franchise as well as Skyfall.  Cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki has been nominated five times for Oscar, including two Cuarón films, and has yet to win.

[Image via Celebuzz]

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Best Actress 2013: Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby

Besides Sandra Bullock's Gravity, The Great Gatsby's Carey Mulligan is another major Best Actress holdover from 2012.  Baz Lurhman's adaptation of the F. Scott Fitzgerald novel is the movie nobody asked for with the expensive price tag.  The promo shots, trailers, and postponed release dates have instilled little reason to rethink this stance.  If Luhrman is trying to convince studios to not hire him for big extravaganzas and discourage studios from investing in anything other than action sequels, he's certainly doing a stupendous job!

Anyhow, Mulligan made an exceptional debut with An Education four years ago now and went on to gradually make good on her promise by working on choice projects (Drive), signing on with top directors (Inside Llewyn Davis), and turning out career-best performances (Shame).  She has made what might be perceived as questionable choices (including Gatsby and the Wall Street sequel), which is unfortunate, but it's not like she is trying to sabotage her filmography.  Mulligan auditioned for Lisbeth Salander in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo sequel two years ago, but was passed over for Rooney Mara.  Perhaps, she would have been miscast, but I can't help but imagine what she might have done with that role.  Perhaps not as much as Mara, but I'm stubborn.

Gatsby's adaptation will be brought to you by Luhrmann and his screenwriting right-hand man Craig Pearce.  Composer Craig Armstrong won a Golden Globe for Rouge!  Cinematographer Simon Duggan has a questionable CV comprised mostly of empty action films.  Like with Rouge! and Australia, Luhrman's wife Catherine Martin worked on art direction and costumes (she has two Academy Awards to her name).  Martin coproduced along with her husband and a host of others.  There are enough editors to choke a horse, but it's a Luhrman film, so what do you expect?  Those gazillions of bytes of footage aren't going to chop themselves.  The probably snoozer of a film that has already been a boring movie decades ago stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Jason Clarke and Joel Edgerton (both from Zero Dark Thirty), Isla Fisher, and, if you're worried about whether or not you'll fall asleep, there's Tobey Maguire as the Human Sleeping Pill.  The movie filmed the latter half of 2011 in New South Wales and will release in the US on the 10th of May.  Set your alarm clocks.

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