Best Art Direction 2012 Oscar Prediction: Anna Karenina

The Gold Derby pundits are almost split down the middle on Art Direction (Production Design) for 2012.  It's Anna Karenina vs. Les Misérables.  Now, I haven't seen the former, but it looks absolutely gorgeous.  And, though I loved the latter, I can't say that I found its production design as having any wow factor.  Surely the ship in the introduction, as well as the bridge Javert walks across were beautiful, but, whether for budgetary or other reasons, I found the sets more intimate and less epic.  While that may have been the point, it influences any inclination to predict it for this category.  Tom O'Neil and Sasha Stone have Life of Pi pegged, which strikes me as a dark horse contender.  For a film set in the middle of the ocean, it was visually striking, even outside of the visual effects.  Thom Geler and Anne Thompson are calling Lincoln, which, to me, would only win via a sweep.  A wasted call, in my opinion.  No one is predicting The Hobbit, with most figuring it for fifth place.

The winner often goes to a BP nominee, but it's not always a constant. Period and fantasy films always have the edge, though musicals always are strong.  Last year's winner was Dante Ferretti for Hugo, which was recognized by the Art Directors Guild for Period, along with wins from BAFTA, BFCA, LA, San Diego, Phoenix, Florida, and DC.  It pretty much swept everything, which isn't always a guarantee for an Oscar.  Inception carried the lion's share of precursors, but still had the carpet pulled from underneath its feet by Alice in Wonderland, which didn't win anything until the night at The Academy.  But, the studio backing it infamously warned it was going to drive a hard Oscar campaign (with foolish dreams of a Best Picture nod).

At this point, the smart money is on Karenina, which also won with BFCA, but it's not like Les Misérables doesn't have a shot.  Karenina also managed some of the critic groups, along with four Oscar nominations total, which indicates strong support beyond the costume and production design categories it was expected to make an appearance in.  This is production designer Sarah Greenwood's fourth nomination, her third for collaborating with director Joe Wright.  It would kind of make poetic sense for her to win.  Les Misérables' Eve Stewart is on her third.  Pi's David Gropman is on his second nomination.  This is fifth nomination of The Hobbit's Dan Hennah, fourth for an LOTR-related film, having won once.  Lincoln's Rick Carter is on his fourth, having also won once.  The Oscar history of these production designers does little to shed light on this situation overall.  The ones who have the best chance are overdue and the ones who are weakest have already been rewarded in the past.

This year, the ADG singled out Karenina and Life of Pi (as well as Skyfall).  Oscar winners that didn't get recognized by the group (which wasn't always broken down into three groups): Alice in Wonderland, Sweeney Todd, The Aviator, Chicago, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon; Shakespeare in Love.  FFCC also chose Anna Karenina.  The past movie they didn't predict winning Oscar: Alice in Wonderland.  It might be telling to see who BAFTA chooses, or perhaps it won't.  Oscar winners that didn't get recognized by the BFCA: Alice in Wonderland.  They nominated all of the Oscar nominees this year but The Hobbit.

LAFCA handed it to The Master this year, which isn't even nominated.  Other Oscar winners it didn't predict: Alice in Wonderland, Avatar, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Sweeney Todd, Memoirs of a Geisha, Chicago, Shakespeare in Love, The English Patient, Restoration, The Madness of King George.  LCCF also chose The Master.

SDFCS went with the unnominated  Cloud Atlas.  Films they failed to predict: Alice in Wonderland, Avatar, Pan's Labyrinth, Memoirs of a Geisha, Chicago.  WDCAFCA also went with Cloud Atlas.  They didn't serve as a predictor for: Alice in Wonderland, Avatar, Pan's Labyrinth.

PFCS chose Moonrise Kingdom, which the AMPAS overlooked. They didn't predict Alice in Wonderland, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Pan's Labyrinth, Memoirs of Geisha, Chicago, Moulin Rouge!

My rationale:

Sarah Greenwood

LOTR has already been rewarded in this category as well as just about every other non-acting field and with few other nominations, love for The Hobbit appears to be weak.  In a year that wealth may be spread, a win for Life of Pi or Lincoln in this category may add too one too many Oscars when they're much more competitive in other categories.  Even with a BAFTA win for production design, a win for Les Misérables may be "too much," though, to a lesser extent.  I wouldn't rule it out.  But, because this is the third go around for the Wright/Greenwood without a win (not that means anything), as well as four total nominations indicating an appreciation for the film, I'm going with Anna Karenina.  It's pretty safe to say that a win for any movie other than Karenina here would be a harbinger for a great night for that particular film.

If I were to break it down by percentages, it would go:
Anna Karenina 45%
Les Misérables 37.5%
Life of Pi 15%
Lincoln 2.5%
The Hobbit 0%

What say you?