Opening This Weekend: Great Hope for Springs

Jones knows that playing against Streep is a bad idea

I took an extended break from posting for a variety of reasons, but I thought I would dip my toe back into the blogging waters to see what the temperature is like.  Are you familiar with the game Hollywood Stock Exchange?  It started around fifteen years ago.  I throw that number out there, because I remember joining before My Best Friend's Wedding opened and it was pretty new at the time.  I put all of my free-starter HSX bucks into that movie (or most of them), because Roberts was returning to her bread and butter and ready to be a star again; very few people saw the green that was to come.  I think part of my motivation was wishful thinking.  I lost interest in the game probably before summer ended, the correct prediction of Wedding's success being my crowning jewel.  I also played from work, because I didn't have internet at the time, nor would have internet (and a computer) for, like, four (?) more years.  Yikes.

I was feeling nostalgic today, so I checked in and joined again.  I received $2M starter bucks and quickly soaked them in various films that were opening over the next year.  I don't understand all the numbers, especially the asking prices.  I did my best to determine what films which I foresaw as doing well were likely being undervalued.  As far as this weekend is concerned, I bought up a lot of shares of Hope Springs and The Campaign.  I didn't imagine Springs ever doing that well, until I saw its RT score of 78% (well, it was in the low 80%'s when I checked in yesterday or the day before).  Considering that it struck me as a film that would be hitting somewhere between 45 - 60%, I was impressed by my underestimation of the new Streep vehicle.  This isn't to say it's a done deal.  Her role isn't encumbered by affectations like her Julia Child and Margaret Thatcher, and considering her recent Oscar win, where she even acknowledged audiences being tired of her, I originally surmised that audiences may want to take a break from Streep.  Not having read any reviews, but having caught a whiff of several references to the movie being "for anyone of any age, single or in a relationship," perhaps the audience potential is pretty broad.  And considering the contemporary nature of Springs, as well as its high-grossing precursor It's Complicated, I decided to throw a great deal of my HSX bucks at this film.  It's only opening on about 2,200 screens, so I imagine an opening somewhere between $18 - 22M.  Of course, I would love for it to bust that range and go beyond (which it probably may do), but I'm only thinking realistically right now.  But, if I was feeling really audacious, I would say more like the high $20M's.  Also of note: I adamantly believed all along Streep was a non-start for Best Actress this year.  I was wrong.  I had no idea this was going to be such a weak year that the last winner, with seventeen nominations under her belt, would be a candidate in a non-baity role, but she is.  And, were it not for her Violet Weston from August: Osage County in 2013, I would even say the dearth of competition makes her the front-runner.

The movie theater trailer for The Campaign before Ted had me in stitches.  On the surface, it's a dumb Hollywood comedy.  I've never been a fan of Will Ferrell, yet, in the last year, he has begun to grow on me.  Delightfully surprisingly, it's RT score is currently just under Springs' at 76%.  A wide release from Ferrell or his costar Zach Galifianakis doesn't have to receive above average reviews in order to be a success; quite the contrary.  But, I'm hoping that audiences will respond to its implied (and hopefully genuine) quality.  Look for a movie spoiler summary.  On around 3,250 screens, a safe box-office prediction would be low-to-mid $30M.

However, the weight of the numbers on Friday rides on The Bourne Legacy.  I've only seen the first one.  However, the original trilogy boasts not only increased profitability, but critical response--quite unusual for sequels.  The latest Bourne film, which now stars Jeremy Renner instead of Matt Damon (fitting considering that original author Robert Ludlum actually penned only the first three novels), started its RT score in the low 40's is now knocking on the 60-percentile's door.  It still falls outside of the first three film's high grades.  Its MC score is actually slightly higher at 63 (and above The Campaign, and just under Springs).  Like the Spider-Man franchise, it has been five years since the last film.  Some argue, it was too soon.  More importantly, many argued a new origins story was unnecessary, as it tried to distance itself from the third entry.  With Bourne, however, there was nothing but excessive good will with its 2007 movie.  Is there a demand to continue the ascension?  I doubt it.  The last film opened to almost $70M (the highest August opening ever), an incredible stat that doesn't seem possible this summer.  I wouldn't be surprised by a $25 - 30M opening, either, but it sounds obscenely pessimistic.  Obviously, the expectation is much higher.  Does Renner have the drawing power to match it?  After hitching his star to Mission: Impossible and The Avengers, this is his commercial litmus test.  I would say $50 - 55M would be the high end possibility.  The reality is probably between $30 - 50M, which is a wide window, I realize.  There are just so many variables here, which make its chances hard to pin down.  My instincts say "stay low," so something in the $30M's, for sure.  I want to say The Campaign will beat it, but I just can't go there, yet.  Yet, if you look at social media like Facebook, both The Campaign and Hope Springs have been courting a healthy base of fans.  The Bourne Legacy?  Nothing.

Also opening is this movie called Nitro Circus The Movie 3D, which appears to be another Jack-Ass movie, with the worst of all possible reviews.  It opens on around 800 screens.  Considering I'm imagining all the opening dollars (and then some) going to the aforementioned films, $4M is all I'm predicting for this, although the grassroots-like push may launch it much higher.

Of course, all of my estimates are totally off, because, being the second full weekend of August, the potential for big opening numbers is meager.  It's probably wiser to err on the low-end and imagine that if the audience is there, the second and third weekend drops for the well-reviewed films will be low.