Best Director/Screenplays Oscar 2013 - May Predictions

Well, Cannes has clarified a few things.  The Coen brothers latest looks like it has a conceivable shot at major recognition.  The question is: is CBS Films up to the task?  The company has been around for only a few years and looks to have high ambitions.  With Scott Rudin in the mix, great reviews and a stellar art-house box-office will be just what the Coens need to get their record third Best Picture in a row.  Nat Rogers at The Film Experience made a great point a few weeks ago about the unlikelihood of a large number of Best Picture nominees being consecutive repeats for their directors/producers.  And, he's right!  The chances of O. Russell, the Coens, Payne, Bennett, Scorsese, and producer Clooney  (and Hancock for that matter) all getting in for 2013 are pretty slim.  Not to forget adding such familiars as Greengrass, Allen, Howard, Jason Reitman, and Ridley Scott (I'd only consider Greengrass at this point).  The thing is, I wouldn't invest much stock on Bennett and Scorsese for starters.  But that still leaves five, which is a lot.  But, hey, we had five Best Picture players with directors that were enjoying consecutive successes (O. Russell, Bigelow, Tarantino, Hooper, and Spielberg) this past race.  Of course, none of them were on their third, like we have with so many this year, especially O. Russell, the Coens, and Payne (and two of them made black and white films to boot!).  In 2010 and 2011, there were even less, and that's even taking into consideration if the Field of Ten had been in play this whole time.

Back to Cannes, Asghar Farhadi also showed that his A Separation was no fluke.  Expect his latest drama to be a major player in the Foreign Language field, and, if all goes right, it could slip into Amour territory.  I've been waiting for non-Best Actress winners to liven up the category this year, and Bérénice Bejo may be part of the antidote.  Sony Pictures Classics have proven to be effective at juggling two films at once.  Last year, they managed impressively with both Amour and Searching for Sugar Man.  A year before that, Midnight in Paris and Farhadi's Separation.

Speaking of two-handers, that's ground zero for TWC, but I still believe that August: Osage County and Fruitivale Station will be its two biggest players.  And, for Sony: The Monuments Men and American Bullshit are the ones that look best on paper.  That can always turn awry.  Will one of them become a turkey/underwhelm?  I expect that it's likelier that one of them will move to 2014, if anything.  I don't see Paramount creating strong arguments for both Nebraska and The Wolf of Wall Street.  It will be interesting to see if Nebraska sets Cannes on fire when reviews come out this week.  I'm banking on it right now.  As you may expect, I updated the director categories, as well as introduced the screenplay races.  I'm thrusting forward with The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.  I've noticed that the Awards Daily Forum has keyed into the movie being an Oscar player next year, but most major prognosticating bloggers haven't bitten yet.  So be it.  There's still plenty of time before we'll probably see press materials like trailers and posters to capture their attention.

Best Director
1. (New). Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
2 (-1). George Clooney, The Monuments Men
3 (-1). Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
4 (-1). John Wells, August: Osage County
5 (+5). David O. Russell, American Hustle

6 (+15). Alexander Payne, Nebraska
7 (--). Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
8 (-2). Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
9 (+9). Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
10 (+1). Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave

11 (New). Asghar Farhadi, The Past
12 (+1). Ridley Scott, The Counselor
13 (-4). Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
14 (-6). Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
15 (+17). John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
16 (-12). Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
17 (New). Jeff Nichols, Mud
18 (-13). Bill Condon, The Fifth Estate
19 (-7). Anton Corbijn, A Most Wanted Man
20 (--). Baz Luhrmann, The Great Gatsby

21 (New). Akiva Goldman's, Winter's Tale
22 (+14). Spike Lee, Oldboy
23 (--). Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
24 (+2). Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
25 (New). Jonathan Teplitzky, The Railway Man
26 (+4). Ron Howard, Rush
27 (+1). Jason Reitman, Labor Day
28 (-11). Justin Chadwick, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
29 (New). Atom Egoyan, Devil's Knot
30 (+5). Neill Blomkamp, Elysium

31 (-17). James Gray, The Immigrant
32 (-3). Denis Villeneuve, Prisoners
33 (-18). Derek Cianfrance, The Place Beyond the Pines
34 (New). Olivier Dahan, Grace of Monaco
35 (New). Peter Landesman, Parkland
36 (New). Carl Rinsch, 47 Ronin
37 (-21). Susanne Bier, Serena
38 (-14). Spike Jonze, Her
39 (+4). Brad Furman, Runner, Runner
40 (New). Nicolas Winding Refn, Only God Forgives

41 (-14). Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring
42 (-20). Brian Helgeland, 42
43 (-24). Guillaume Canet, Blood Ties
44 (New). Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Way, Way Back
45 (New). James Ponsoldt, The Spectacular Now
46 (-12). Kar Wai Wong, The Grandmaster
47 (-10). Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
48 (-23). Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman
49 (-18). Scott Cooper, Out of the Furnace
50 (-12). Lee Daniels, The Butler

Best Original Screenplay
1. Bob Nelson, Nebraska
2. Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
3. Asghar Farhadi & Massoumeh Lahidji, The Past
4. Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks
5. Eric Singer, American Hustle

6. Cormac McCarthy, The Counselor
7. Alfonso & Jonás Cuarón, Gravity
8. Jeff Nichols, Mud
9. E. Max Frye & Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
10. Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Way, Way Back

11. David Lowery, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
12. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
13. Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (adapted?)
14. Peter Morgan, Rush
15. Spike Jonze, Her
16. Tobias Lindholm & Thomas Vinterberg, The Hunt
17. Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
18. Arash Amel, Grace of Monaco
19. Stephen Jeffreys, Diana
20. Neill Blomkamp, Elysium

21. Aaron Guzikowski, Prisoners
22. James Gray & Ric Menello, The Immigrant
23. Nicolas Winding Refn, Only God Forgives
24. Peter Landesman, Parkland
25. Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring ("adapted"?)
26. Pacific Rim
27. Brian Koppelman & David Levien, Runner, Runner
28. 47 Ronin
29. Scott Cooper & Brad Ingelsby, Out of the Furnace
30. Lee Daniels & Danny Strong, The Butler ("adapted"?)
31. The Place Beyond the Pines
32. Brian Helgeland, 42

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
2. Steve Conrad, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
3. George Clooney & Grant Heslov, The Monuments Men
4. Steve McQueen & John Ridley, Twelve Years a Slave
5. Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (original?)

6. William Nicholson, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
7. Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
8. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
9. Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
10. Baz Luhrmann & Craig Pearce, The Great Gatsby

11. Jason Reitman, Labor Day
12. Akiva Goldman's, Winter's Tale
13. Lee Daniels & Danny Strong, The Butler ("original"?)
14. Charlie Stratton, Thérèse
15. Abi Morgan, The Invisible Woman
16. Andrew Bovell, A Most Wanted Man
17. Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Spectacular Now
18. Josh Singer, The Fifth Estate
19. Kasi Lemmons, Black Nativity
20. Paul Harris Boardman & Scott Derrickson, Devil's Knot

21. Frank Cottrell Boyce & Andy Paterman, The Railway Man
22. Christopher Kyle, Serena
23. Luc Besson, Malavita
24. Mark Protosevich, Oldboy
25. Sophia Coppola, The Bling Ring (original?)
26. Joon-ho Bong & Kelly Masterson, Snowpiercer
27. David S. Goyer & Christopher Nolan, Man of Steel