Best Director Oscar 2012 Prediction: Ang Lee, Life of Pi

This year is so crazy with predicting the Oscar race.  But, that's what we ask for, isn't it?  We want a real race.  And, of course, we'll never live in a time, where all five nominees in every category are of equal top critical and commercial success.  We have to take what we can get.  Cinesnatch egregiously reported that the Best Director race months ago was between Steven Spielberg and Ben Affleck.  As it turned out, Affleck wasn't nominated by the AMPAS and the buzz on Lincoln has cooled some.  Things weren't so cut and dried.  What makes matters murkier is that the awards bodies that didn't line up behind Affleck, threw their weight towards other directors who weren't nominated for Oscar like Kathryn Bigelow and Paul Thomas Anderson.  Only Ang Lee for Life of Pi has been singled out multiple times.  Three, in fact, which include the film critics of Kansas City, London, and Las Vegas.  A contingent of Gold Derby experts are filing behind his chances including Douglas, Hammond, Khan, Lodge, and Thompson.  National Society went with Michael Haneke for Amour and one Gold Derby pundit (Rosen, though I could have sworn Lodge had him up at the top recently) are predicting him; I just find the film too intimate for the AMPAS to award so a lofty prize.  David O. Russell was chosen by the dubious Satellite Awards and some film festivals, though he's probably more competitive in the screenplay category.  There are still some Gold Derby experts, led by Jeff Wells, who thinks he's going to take the prize (Adams, Horgan, homophobe Setoodeh).  And, I wonder how his "reformed" caustic personality will play with Oscar voters in general.  Newbie Ben Zeitlin falls into the "lucky to be nominated" category, but, this year, who knows.  The group think is with Lincoln's Steven Spielberg, who has won zero honors for directing in connection with this film.

The race does seem to boil down to Spielberg and Lee.  Both veterans, Spielberg with two wins under his belt and Lee with one.  Lee has slowly worked his way up with the AMPAS, first having directed a BP nominee without getting a director's nod, then managing both, and then doing so again, winning for director, but losing BP.  The natural progression this year would be for Lee to win both, I suppose.

I'm really kind of shocked how Lincoln has gross over $170M, nabbed twelve nominations and has seemingly lost its mojo, having really not performed that well through the awards circuit.  Did the marketing team mess up on this one with an unintended sense of entitlement?  Lincoln was such an "Important" movie, right?  Made the most money out of all the nominees.  And was right up there with many of the other films on the review front.  Talk about blowing it.  Having not taken one honor for directing, I'll give the edge to Lee, who is easy to see as a two-time Oscar winner.  Besides, you can do worse this year than cover all your bases on Pi.  But, I wouldn't be surprised if Spielberg rallies for an eleventh hour surge.

Who do I think should have won?  Bigelow, naturally.