Best Actor 2012: Daniel Day-Lewis Vs. Denzel Washington?

Dejavu much?  Oscar may make history with two French-speaking roles for Best Actress (read Sasha Stone's astute assessment of the race thus far here; the comments made me realize that I need to add Jessica Chastain to the list) with credentials that are eerily similar.  But, for the Best Actor race, as it may or may not be currently shaping up to be a race between Daniel Day-Lewis and Denzel Washington, they have their own set of comparable qualities.  Both men won their first Oscar the same year for film year 1989, hence the excuse for the graphic for subsequent roles each played as boxers in different films (resulting in a nomination for Washington in 1999).  Both men won their second Oscar and are going on their third.  For Day-Lewis, it was only five years ago, for Washington, double that time.  And both men are directed by Hollywood titans who are no strangers to The Academy.  However, I have a sneaking suspicion that John Hawkes pulls a fast one and nabs it while no one's looking, if The Sessions really takes off. Presently, the way I think the race is going down:

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln.  Whenever Day-Lewis makes a film every seven years or so, it's not whether he'll be nominated, it's whether he'll win.  That's where the conversation seems to be pointing right now, at least.  Lincoln will be a formidable contender, with Day-Lewis likely leading the way.  The question is only how much of an impact will it have.

2. John Hawkes, The Sessions.  Of course, the race could just end up boiling down to an AMPAS-approved actor in a baity role who is off to a good start at the box-office.

3. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master.  An incredible performance that may or may not lose steam without the box-office muscle Lincoln and Flight will surely enjoy.  It's hard to say if that recent Elvis Mitchell Interview helped or hindered keeping Phoenix relevant to the race.  Phoenix needs to pick up a lion's share of awards to keep reminding the AMPAS just how awesome he was.

4. Denzel Washington, Flight.  I didn't think anything of this film at first.  But, then it was announced that it would be part of NYFF this year and, after all, its Robert Zemekis' first live-action film in over a decade, and its RT score pre-wide release is 95%.  Cue Julia Roberts, "It's a shame Denzel doesn't have three Oscars by now in five, four, three, two ..."

I'm feeling pretty secure about the first four positions, but what about the fifth?

5. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables.  Jackman strikes me as one of those men who will never ever get nominated.  I'm not sure why.  He's super talented, attractive, and commands his share of commercial and critical notice.  This is arguably the closest he has come to being nominated, as he has never really been part of the Oscar conversation.

6. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook.  Harvey will have a great deal to do with this if Cooper gets in.  But, I have a hard time with Cooper as an Oscar-nominee.

7. Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour.  His costar Emmanuelle Riva has the better chance with less competition.

8. Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson.  Critical reception was cool, but Murray in always on the AMPAS radar and this is his baitiest role to date.

9. Richard Gere, Arbitrage.  Gere is one of those few acting veterans who has been at it for decades, and has had enough success over the years to be consistently relevant.  This is being touted as one of his strongest performances.  Considering it was simultaneously released VOD, its box-office take was impressive.  Having just seen it, Gere is quite good.

10. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock.  I'm not buying it, but others are.

11. Ben Affleck, Argo.  His role isn't very demanding.  He spends his time acting calm in the face of tense situations and will surely be nominated, if not win for his role as director.

12. Tommy Lee Jones, Hope Springs.  Jones was just amazing, but his work in Springs may be overshadowed by his supporting turn in Lincoln.