1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook. Earlier this year, I had entertained the idea of Jennifer Lawrence following up Winter's Bone with a sophomore nomination. I just had the wrong film. I doubt The Hunger Games will age well, but considering its massive success is so fresh and on everyone's minds, it's not like her team can't use the momentum to push her other film, Silver Lining's Playbook, which I mistakenly thought had her in a supporting role. With her TIFF buzz, her nomination is a solid in such a weak year, but a win is a gamble until I see more of where the chips may fall. While her turn looks refreshing and a smart break from what audiences have come to know her as in such a short while, the material is still a comedy-drama, and while she plays a character with mental illness, it's a far cry from traditional Oscar bait. And I can't get over her meteoric rise. Still, she's smart, talented, and her chances are looking better than anyone else at this point. And it never hurts to have Harvey in your corner (even Madonna's W got a costume nod and a Globe win for song to Elton John's undelight).
2. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild. Sure she's a kid, but she does a fantastic job. And as we witnessed with Whale Rider (which also took advantage of an extremely weak year, 2003), Oscar loves little girls (though they demote them to supporting when they're clearly lead). Many expressed the fear that Wallis' ineligibility for the SAG awards will diminish her chances with the AMPAS. My instincts suggest otherwise. In a more open year for Best Actress contenders, one might think two Sundance rivals wouldn't have a problem getting in. At this point, she is the surest bet. It's one of the few films I've seen from this category and she indeed carries the film and is the strongest element.
3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour. The reviews have been outstanding and, with a late-year release, it stands an awesome chance at recognition with Riva being its most formidable contender. The AMPAS is slowly thawing to director Michael Haneke's films.
4. Marion Cotillard, Flesh & Bone. Well, here's the other French film put out by Sony Picture Classics that showed earlier this year at Cannes and will have a strong push for Best Actress. The two have comparable IMDb ratings, votes, and RT scores. LOL. Like Helen Hunt, Cotillard received an abundant amount of Oscar love that I figured would hold her over for years, if not decades. She has handled her career well, taking supporting roles with sure-fire talent in Hollywood blockbusters, while making small French films. It was unrealistic of me to think that she could become a household name like past winners Meryl Streep or even Maggie Smith, and it appears that it won't affect her chances of becoming a repeat nominee.
5. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina. I had her as my #1 for the longest time and after TIFF, all but lost faith that she'd secured a nod. Now, she is hanging on the periphery of what is very little in the center. She has been in the conversation for the last few years and failed to create enough of an interest to score her second nomination. However, starring in a (albeit pared down) prestige picture, which is quite uncommon these days, bodes well for her chances. Still, I can't say I can pin her down as a definite. I'll hold onto her until the film comes out. But, I should probably stick a fork in her chances.
6. Naomi Watts, The Impossible. We don't know for sure how the AMPAS feel about Watts. They noticed her in 21 Grams, but she had other company, which helped her chances with a solid turn. However, two years ago, in what was a competitive year, they chose not to single her out for Fair Game. Her reviews for The Impossible have been good, but not over-the-top, and the film so far has received above average reception. Still, she is revving up for next year's race as Princess Diana in what might end up being a highly competitive year (yay!). That could either mean they might put her off, or, if she has a likely chance of winning next year (I don't see it), this may be a lead-up nod.
7. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock. Many are jizzing over the awards potential for Mirren in one of the upcoming Hitchcock films. Yes, she's Helen-fucking-Mirren and, God love her, the AMPAS will now jump at the chance to throw her attention a la Judi Dench, Kate Winslet, or Streep. And egg on my face if she makes it. But, something desperate reeks about the race to release a Hitchcock movie. The Girl doesn't look that good, but it's a television movie, so it's not even in competition for Oscar. But, The Making of Psyco, or whatever it's called, has some intriguing elements. I'm just put off by 1) Anthony Hopkins, and 2) the rush to release. But, if her last nod is any indication, they will nominate her in anything that gets anywhere near Oscar-bait. And, if the trailer means anything, she looks to be quite enjoyable disagreeable as the put-upon wife. Even if the film tanks, I can see them building a campaign around her.
8. Helen Hunt, The Sessions. I've waffled back and fourth on which category Hunt will be campaigned as. And after many prognosticators demoted her to supporting, some seem to be switching back. In a weak year, this Sundance-approved performance from the already well-Oscar-rewarded Hunt has a shot, but an even better chance at supporting. Still, we'll have to wait. It's not uncommon for there to be more than one former winner in the leading category, but Cotillard has the stronger reviews and baitier role.
11. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs. The AMPAS love them some Meryl. However, 1) She just won last year, 2) Despite a great performance, it lacks any affectation that normally seals the deal for her, and 3) With 17 nominations under her belt, she's going to have a slightly tougher time continuing to set records with each new nomination now, no? Still, as it is, Springs is the highest grossing film of 2012 thus far which boasts an Oscary Best Actress submission. So, there you are. Yet, another conundrum along with: could the AMPAS nominate two French actresses?
12. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea. The Oscars and The Globes went for Weisz in a big way back in 2005 for The Constant Gardener. Ever since, she's built a resume of little seen lead roles with respected directors not entirely unlike the much higher-profile Nicole Kidman. She is well respected in the industry. Pete Hammond went bananas for her last April and her name is still getting floated around six months later. Sea grossed $1.1M, but was crippled by lukewarm reviews. I can still see this getting a surprisingly amount of traction.
13. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. See below under Golden Globe - Comedy.
14. Diane Kruger, Farewell My Queen. With a 93% RT and $1.4M, it still isn't part of the conversation.
15. Elizabeth Olsen, Therese Raquin. Olsen's film releases the 28th of December. Her Martha Marcy May Marlene was a contender last year. Along with its nice little gross last year, getting in would have been a cinch in 2012.
16. Amy Adams, Trouble with the Curve. Again, her box-office numbers are more impressive in a vey unimpressive field.
17. Maggie Smith, Quartet. The TIFF reviews didn't seem to do much for Dustin Hoffman's official directorial debut. But, could Smith benefit from her career resurgence in the last decade in both TV and film, perhaps thanks in part to Harry Potter?
18. Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson. The awards prospects on this film have cooled considerably since TIFF. Bill Murray seems to have the best shot, and he is facing some stiff competition.
19. Elle Fanning, Ginger & Rosa. With IMDb and RT scores in the 50%-tile, if it were to get released this year, it doesn't seem likely to garner awards traction. Fanning is only fourteen though. Just you wait.
20. Viola Davis, Won't Back Down. With a poor critical and commercial reception, this film has no choice but to back down from awards consideration. However, it is backed by a big studio, and Davis had a near-miss win last year.
21. Maggie Gyllenhaal, Won't Back Down.
22. Rachel McAdams, The Vow. This would be a not likely, but I do wonder when McAdams will become a contender.
Golden Globe - Comedy
When it comes to the Golden Globe Comedy, I think I have a better sense of the category than the drama side this year. While I've put Anne Hathaway's lead chances with Oscar to rest, seriously, do you not think it's possible they'd find some way to place her in the lead category (to ensure a Best Supporting Actress win ala Catherine Zeta-Jones)? Okay, probably not. She's still taking Oscar, though.
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings' Playbook. Not sure which category Lawrence will show up in. But if the Globes go for The Hunger Games, she surely will end up here. In such a weak year, I can't see the award going to any other contender. However, winning the dramatic Globe might mean more for Lawrence's chances?
2. Anna Kendrick, Pitch Perfect. She's the lead (I think), she sings, she's cute, she has been nominated for an Oscar, whenever she shows up on screen, she's adorable. Oh, yeah, and the film is a box-office bonanza success.
3. Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip. The Oscars may have a problem with nominating her for acting, but the Globes love her. And this is her official nominatable role in the last fifteen years. Wow! Again, if the movie makes some money, she's in. The Globes love a star. And she's one of the biggest. She's like butter.
4. Leslie Mann, This Is Forty. Mann is a talented actress who hasn't been recognized for her comedic prowess. She's starring in husband Judd Apatow's sure-to-be "sequel" to Knocked Up. I can't imagine her not getting nominated, if the movie's the likely hit it will be.
5. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs. It was a comedy-drama, right?
6. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. As far as films, the Globes have nominated Dench for everything the AMPAS have and nothing more (aside from some of her television work). It's the same way with Maggie Smith. And, with Helen Mirren, the "sexier" of the three, they were surprisingly later to the party (no nod for The Madness of King George and, in a category of six, she was omitted for Gosford Park, while Smith still got in). Only with Kate Winslet, the much younger of all four, did they start to recognize beyond her AMPAS love (along with Jodie Foster, the star got recognized for Carnage in the comedic category over Cameron Diaz' brilliant and widely seen Bad Teacher). I'm not sure if age will play a role here.
7. Blake Lively, Savages. This would be my bid for a WTF-prediction in the spirit of The Tourist. It seems right, even if her performance was dramatic. The film made enough money. Savages was actually really good and fun. I've also started liking Lively again. Now, that she's Mrs. Reynolds and her career is cooling (for now?), this may be her only chance to be recognized for a performance by a major awards body now (or maybe ever?). I can see it. Actually, I'm kind of hoping it happens.
[10/23 Update: Emily Blunt, The Five-Year Engagement should be in here somewhere]
8. Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz. If only My Week with Marilyn was released this year! There is no doubt in my mind, *Williams* would be the belle of the ball. Like many of the Brits, she's an American whom the Globes haven't singled out the way they've been known to do over Oscar. Waltz didn't gross that much more than Meek's Cutoff or Wendy and Lucy, but neither of those roles would have qualified her for this category either.
9. Julianna Hough, Rock of Ages. She's a lead in one of the few musicals this year. The only problem is that critics skewered the movie and no one went to go see it. I really liked it!
10. Maggie Gyllenhaal, Hysteria. The film grossed nearly $2M, but the reviews were middling. The Globes tipped their hats to her in 2002 and 2006, two years that were extremely competitive in the Best Actress race and she failed to secure nominations. Kind of frustratingly unfair.
11. Reese Witherspoon, This Means War. She has been nominated in this category three times before, but for much, much better films. War grossed $54.8M, right behind Hope Springs, The Vow, The Hunger Games, and, eventually Pitch Perfect.
12. Zoe Kazan, Ruby Sparks. She wrote the screenplay for the film directed by the team behind Little Miss Sunshine and it made $2.5M. In the bigger scheme of things, that's still impressive.
13. Rosemarie DeWitt, Your Sister's Sister. Everyone's a possibility, right?
And, just for shits and giggles ...
Best Actress (Oscar) 2013 & 2014
1. Nicole Kidman, Monaco
2. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
3. Zoe Saldana, Nina
4. Julia Roberts, The Normal Heart
5. Naomi Watts, Diana
6. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
7. Evan Rachel Wood, Marina Nemat
8. Anna Kendrick, The Last Five Years
9. Marion Cotillard, Lowlife
10. Nicole Kidman, The Railway Man
11. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
12. Reese Witherspoon, Big Eyes
13. Reese Witherspoon, Devil's Knot
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