Can We Stop Pretending? Anne Has Oscar in the Bag

Generally speaking, while it's still too early to say "so and so is going to win Oscar," some things are just plain inevitable. And, I'm willing to put more down than an apple pie that Anne Hathaway is going to go home with the little gold man (she may even shoot one out a few months later if she follows Natalie Portman's guide to success). All the press and buzz point to her eventual crowning. Right time in her career, right amount of industry good will, right amount of talent, right movie (sight unseen, even if it stinks to high heavens me thinks she's still going to pull if off), etc. She has just gotten hitched while wearing a huge bandage on her forehead (having fooled everyone by pretending her wedding was going to be a year from when it actually was) and calling it a headdress; and she'll be singing her way to the Dolby Theater via Sally Bowles for one night only later this month.  As I already alluded, some are even predicting a pregnancy announcement.  While I don't begrudge anyone not ready to place their bets, for me, to speculate anything different just, seems, well, silly.  What's the point?  We can pontificate all we want, but the writing is on the wall, no?  Wouldn't it be best to close the book on this and discuss other, more volatile races, which offer the exciting prospect of: anybody's game?  Hathaway has a better chance at winning an Oscar than President Obama has at getting reelected.  (And, even though his race may look unpredictable, many are already calling it barring some unforeseen circumstance.)  It's not that I discount entertaining other possibilities, and few have seen the final product, but I see a steamroller headed towards the AMPAS and I'm getting out of the way.

Hathaway's time has come

For the most part, it's the leading statue that's more enviable, but, every now and then, a Hollywood starlet covets the supporting award, because it's the easier and more possible path to becoming an Oscar-winner.  These days, with diminishing opportunities for actresses to play a character who drives a story, it may become more commonplace.  I've never seen an aggressive campaign for the "lesser" of the two awards than I have with Hathaway.  Angelina Jolie and Cate Blanchett come to mind as the most recent examples of leading ladies using a supporting win to catapult their career (Rachel Weisz is a lower profile, case-in-point). Geena Davis had such a short run leading up to Thelma & Louise after she won, and only a few more years after that with headlining status (but, some may argue it was fancying herself an action heroine that did her film career in). For the most part, the category is for kids (Tatum O'Neal, Anna Paquin), character actresses (Brenda Ficker, Mercedes Ruehl), and leading ladies with one foot out the opening weekend door (Catherine Zeta-Jones, Renee Zellweger). You can almost hear the death knell of the latter announcing that their pinnacle has passed as they're handed a consolation prize: "Thank you for playing, but your work here is done for all intents and purposes."  But, when you compare Hathaway to Jolie, Blanchett, Weisz, and Davis, she has had more years of mainstream popularity leading up to her win. It was eleven years ago when audiences fell in love with the teenager in the hit The Princess Diaries. She segued into more adult roles by taking off her top in prestige picture Brokeback Mountain and managed to hitch herself to some lucrative franchises.  She has finally hit pay-dirt, thanks to her singing abilities, losing weight, and willingness to shave her head.  SHE SHAVED HER HEAD!  Surely, Hollywood won't let her go home empty handed and embarrass the poor thing.  She's been gunning for this for a while and has "winner" stamped on her forehead (you can't see it, because of the headdress).

But, will that be it for her?  Hathaway could go by way of two other supporting actress winners Jessica Lange and (former costar) Meryl Streep and continue on to a leading win somewhere along the road (but they too had less years behind them when they picked up their first win). In fact, she'll probably be the likeliest one to do it, after, say, Blanchett (or maybe Weisz).  Or perhaps marital life will turn her focus away from career.  But, still, when Jolie and company won their respective supporting awards, they were just getting started.  Jolie became a box-office draw unto herself, snagged a leading nomination, and then reaffirmed her presence as a bankable star.  Blanchett went on to three more nods, while simultaneously juggling her time as co-Artistic Director for the Sydney Theatre Company, as well as one of its leading ladies.  Weisz continues to take on challenging leading roles in little seen films like The Whisteblower and The Deep End of the Ocean.  And, Davis, having gone on to play Thelma, also headlined the baseball hit A League of Their Own.  History dictates that there is more in store of Hathaway.  Even Marisa Tomei got to drive the story in the big-budget rom-com Only You, before fading into the periphery where she then went on to score two more nods.  But, there's a promise in Hathaway's imminent win that seems to stretch beyond Steven Spielberg's Robopocalypse.  

Current perennial nominee Amy Adams

But, what about the women who are going to lose to Anne?  While it's a presumptuous question to ask, it is one that crossed my mind: How will they fare?  First, at second to the top of everyone's list is Amy Adams inevitable fourth nomination.  After seeing The Master, I'm actually surprised people feel so strong about her chances.  She was wonderful, but it's hardly the kind of performance that takes home awards.  Adams continues to display layers to her talent.  At age 38, some may say that the clock is ticking on her opportunities.  Or perhaps that's just my irrational projecting.  But, what, with more challenging and original material being produced less these years and by the sheer fact she is female, I will keep my fingers crossed for her.  If anything, it's an encouraging sign that she'll play Louis Lane to that hot piece of man that is ten years her junior, Henry Cavill.  I'm excited to see what their chemistry is like (it's one of the few remakes I plan on seeing next year).  And, with Zack Snyder directing and the fact that movie was made at the last minute to retain property rights, I hope the film isn't crap!  Rumors about an Enchanted sequel abound.  I'm not sure what the demand will be and if it will equate to box-office dollars.  While I don't begrudge Adams what is sure to be a hefty payday, I'm more concerned about whether the film will raise her profile and bankability, affording her continued access to the best scripts.  With the "death of the movie star," it strikes me that an Enchanted sequel might be all a wash.  She has a small part in the upcoming On the Road.  She also has roles in Spike Jonze's Her and first time director Andrew Levitas' Lullaby in the can.  She's also attached to a reunion with The Fighter director David O. Russell.  I'm thinking a nomination for The Master will certainly be a good thing for her these coming next couple years, though its sinking box-office numbers (after setting a record) won't increase her chances.  

Veteran Helen Hunt

I'm almost over my ridiculous hatred for Helen Hunt.  For years, her Best Actress win for As Good As It Gets bothered me.  There was just so much Try in that performance and her other work (especially that scene at the dinner table, where she scrunches her mouth while Jack Nicholson tries to pay her a proper compliment--or some shit like that, I don't remember).  But, the fact remains, out of the four, based on variables including performance, box-office taken, and where she was at in her career, she won fair and square.  She had the convenience of being on a popular TV show.  Some can make an argument for Judi Dench's Mrs. Brown.  But so many more people saw Hunt and loved her work, it only seemed right she should win.  Besides, in retrospect, five nods and one win later, Dench isn't doing so bad, is she?  A few others insist Helena Bonham-Carter should have won, but The Wings of a Dove put me asleep, I'm embarrassed to admit (And I paid to see it!).  I can't believe I'm rationalizing Hunt's win, but that's what I'm doing.  A whole lot of nothing came out of her Oscar, but it's not like she fell on her face.  She supported movies about men in the high-grossing Castaway and What Women Want.  And she chose to work with Robert Altman, Woody Allen, and an Oscar Wilde adaptation.  Her only mainstream lead after her win (Pay It Forward) was with a female director (Mimi Leder) at the helm.  She wrote and directed her own film, Then She Found Me.  She's knocking on 50's door, but, hopefully, a nomination will put her in some good company again and allow her to hone her craft, which she is endlessly passionate about.  It's quite clear.  Unless the film tanks, expect to be hearing more about Hunt.  Currently, she's finished filming Decoding Annie Parker starring Samantha Morton, and is connected to an Anton Checkhov-based film, as well as Matthew Carnahan's Serpent Girl.

Newcomer Samantha Barks

Hathaway's costar Samantha Barks has everywhere to go but down.  This newcomer was plucked out of obscurity for the role of Éponine.  But, that last name of hers ... doesn't seem so wise to keep it?  I'm sure she's heard it all before.  Judy Kuhn received Tony and Drama Desk nominations for her Éponine in the original broadway production.  Frances Ruffelle's Cosette won the Tony.  Patti LuPone's Fantine won the Laurence Olivier Award for the London Production and its the role that is getting the lion share of buzz for the film.  I'm not familiar enough with the show, however, pushing an unknown like Barks, based on noteriety alone might cast less shade on Hathaway's visage, then if someone more famous (and can open movies) like Amanda Seyfried were to get in the mix.  Kind of reminds me of the 2002 Best Actress race when Meryl Streep was left out of the final lineup for The Hours.  I'd put Barks in fourth for now, unless, of course, Les Misérables does turn out to be a huge turkey.  I'm thinking it won't.  

Jacki Weaver in her early 20s

Jacki Weaver was nominated a few years ago for her chilling performance as a crime matriarch in Animal Kingdom.  The film only made a cool $1M, but a strong campaign got her on the final short-list.  Since, she has scored work in The Five-Year Engagement and Jason Reitman's upcoming Labor Day starring Kate Winslet.  She is attached to Charlie Kaufman's Frank or Francis and will likely be playing opposite Shirley MacLaine in Howard Deutsch's Wild Oats.  Silver Lining's Playbook will keep the parts rolling in, as everyone seems to be walking about it, and TWC is sure to pull two or three acting nominations come Oscar time.  I imagine her in the fifth position for now, but is she not popular enough to warrant a second nomination?  

If Zero Dark Thirty sets the box-office on fire, Chastain
might be burning up the red carpet of the Dolby Theatre

Those are my calls presently for the category.  A nomination couldn't also hurt past winners like Maggie Smith, Sally Field, Frances McDormand, or Vanessa Redgrave, or veteran nominees like Pauline Collins or Helena Bonham Carter.  Annette Bening seems to always benefit a great deal from a mention.  And what red carpet would want to turn away Kerry Washington, Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy didn't have the most spectacular first weekend, however), or (a quiete possibly competitive) Jessica Chastain?  "New" names that could use a boost to their profile: Olivia Williams and newbie Ann Dowd.  No one saw the latter's much talked-about turn in Compliance, but it would be an interesting case study if her people could eke out a nod for her.  AD originally had prognosticated that she was a contender for leading actress, but has since wisely switched her to supporting.  The film currently has a 89% RT, 68% MC, and 6.6 IMDb, but only grossed 300k at the box-office.  It's still playing on screens in Los Angeles, though it has fallen off the latest box office tally.  This will have to be a case of fans rallying around her and pushing her chances with everything they got.

So, what if I'm wrong about Hathaway?  I'm not.  But, by some fluke, feel free to come back and feed me crow.  [10/7 UPDATE: Of course, I always tend to jump the gun and after a series of near-misses, Scarlett Johansson probably has the best chance of snagging a nod for the Hitchcock film.]

Ann Dowd could reap the greatest load
from all the potential nominees this year