Best Actress 2012: November Oscar/Golden Globe Predictions

Well, there's a new gal to add the Best Actress category: Helen Mirren.  And, she's not only a potential nominee, but the former Oscar winner could quite possibly go for a second.  Well, not really.  With a baity role she has hit out of the park, complete with a juicy Oscar clip for the ceremony ("the great Alfred Hitchcock"), Mirren will probably celebrate her fifth nomination this January for her role as the famous director's wife Alma Reville.  She owns the movie and every scene she's in, in only a way that Mirren can do.  While she doesn't have winner written all over her performance, her chances rely heavily on the AMPAS willingness to give the well-respected veteran another statue over a much younger up-and-comer Jennifer Lawrence who basically gave a shrewdly entertaining rom-com turn (not a disparagement by any means, but this isn't a part that generally wins Oscars, especially in competitive years).  I'm still skeptical that the early twentysomething Lawrence will be rewarded so soon for such light material; but, at this point, no one has made a stronger argument for likelier winner and Harvey Weinstein has to win something this year, right?  Even more interesting is that both ladies technically fall into the Comedy/Musical category at the Golden Globes.  Perhaps not.  But, both films are  filled with laughs, especially Silver Linings Playbook.  Neither film is particularly emotionally dramatic, though Mirren's Oscar clip scene has an over-the-top gravitas, and Lawrence has a few heavy moments.  But, if these two are the front-runners, then I imagine the Globes will figure out a way to separate them, while Wallis, Cotillard, and Rivas take a back seat, amongst others.  So strange that this year is filled with actresses who may or may not make it in.

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
4. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

6. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
7. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
8. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
9. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
10. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
11. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

Golden Globe - Comedy
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook*
2. Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip
3. Leslie Mann, This Is Forty
4. Anna Kendrick, Pitch Perfect
5. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs*

6. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
7. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock*
8. Blake Lively, Savages
9. Julianna Hough, Rock of Ages
10. Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz

Golden Globe - Drama
1. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock*
2. Jennifer Lawrence, The Hunger Games+
3. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
4. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
5. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

6. Keira Knightley, Anne Karenina
7. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
8. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs*
9. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
10. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook*
11. Emily Blunt, Your Sister's Sister

*I'm undecided on which category the Globes will choose
+Depending on how they designate Silver Linings, Jennifer Lawrence stands a shot as a double-nominee