Best Picture Oscar 2013 - May Predictions

Cannes opens next week.  Audiences and critics will get their first look at Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis, The Past, The Immigrant, Only God Forgives, The Bling Ring, Blood Ties, and a countless number of other titles that could creep up and eventually become Best Picture contenders ala The Artist.  Fruitvale Station will also give its second bow after Sundance.  For over the next three following months, we'll only have U.S. releases of Before Midnight, Fruitvale, and Blue Jasmine, with perceivably not too much else possibly reshaping the race (unless I've overlooked anything obvious), until the late Summer festivals begin.  This is my first year trying this out, so I'm kind of all over the map right now.  There are a few huge changes, though I tried to keep them to a minimum.  I decided to go all in on The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, after much deliberation that went on for weeks.  With most major award contenders not opening until the last six weeks of the year, I suspect that I'll hold that bet until it finally premieres on Christmas.  I imagine it will get very difficult as the year wears on, especially if I get my hands on more screenplays (P.S. I'm looking for more, so if you have any in the Top 20 which I haven't reviewed, or you think I should consider, by all means, contact me), but here goes nothing.  Other major rises in predictions since last time include Nebraska and American Hustle, which I've been also waiting to do for weeks; there were other adjustments here and there.  I've lost faith in The Fifth Estate, and A Most Wanted Man, partly due to unfamiliarity, but they could always make a comeback.  You may also notice that I added a ton of titles, many of which shouldn't even be on here, but, for some reason, bringing everything in, as well as the kitchen sink, gave the list some kind of complete feel.  (It was probably just a waste of time.)

Here are the new rankings with change in number of positions since March 4th in parenthesis.

1 (New).  The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox).  Release Date: 12/25.  Like overlooking American Hustle, more lazy thinking on my part.  Though, I might be overcorrecting my error by debuting it so high.  After attending CinemaCon, Deadline's Pete Hammond spoke very highly of this movie's Oscar chances (as did many bloggers).  Perhaps it's knee-jerk of me to trust Hammond's casual remarks, but instinct tells me there is probably more than meets the eye.  I feel lucky, punk.  And, considering that The Counselor doesn't appear to be as overt a contender, this film could put Fox in the awards game in a major way.  And, I never felt comfortable with Monuments on top.  For now.  Read my writeup based on the James Thurber short story here.

2 (--). August: Osage County (TWC).  Release Date: 11/8.  Director: John Wells.  Budget: $25M.  Producers: Argonauts.  Cast: Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Margo Martindale, Chris Cooper, Ewan McGregor, Benedict Cumberbatch, Juliette Lewis, Sam Shepard, Julianne Nicholson, Dermot Mulroney, and Abigail Breslin.  Editor: Stephen Mirrione (Babel, Traffic).  Cinematographer: Adriano Goldman (Jane Eyre, Sin Nombre).  Production Designer: David Gropman (Life of Pi, The Cide House Rules).  Not a winner, but definite nominee.  Read my review of the play here.

3 (+1). Fruitvale Station (TWC).  Release Date: 7/26 (changed from October).  Director/Screenplay: Ryan Coogler.  Cast: Michael B. Jordan, Octavia Spencer (also a coproducer), and Chad Michael Murray.  Costume Designer: Aggie Guerard Rodgers (The Color Purple, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, Pee Wee's Big Adventure).  IMDb: 7.6 (174 users).  Plays at Cannes.  Read my thoughts on an aggregate of reviews here.

4 (-3). The Monuments Men (Sony).  Release Date: 12/18.  Director: George Clooney.  Screenplay: Clooney, Grant Heslov from Robert M. Edsel book.  Cast: Clooney, Daniel Craig, Matt Damon, John Goodman, Bill Murray, Cate Blanchett, Jean Dujardin, Bob Balaban. Cinematographer: Phedon Papamichael (The Descendants, The Pursuit of Happyness, Walk the Line, Sideways).  Composer: Alexandre Desplat (Argo, The King's Speech, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Queen).  Production Designer: James D. Bissell (Good Night, and Good Luck., E.T.).  Costume Designer: Louise Frogley (The Ides of March, Traffic).

5 (+4). Twelve Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight).  Release Date: 12/27 (limited).  Director: Steve McQueen.  Screenplay: McQueen, John Ridley from Solomon Northup's memoir.  Cast: Chiwetel Ejiofor, Brad Pitt, Michael Fassbender, Benedict Cumberbatch, Paul Giamatti, Paul Dano, Quvenzhané Wallis, Dwight Henry, Sarah Paulson, and Taran Killam.  Editor: Joe Walker.  Cinematographer: Sean Bobbitt.  Production Designer: Adam Stockhausen (Moonrise Kingdom).  If the AMPAS are going to reward Quentin Tarantino with a Best Picture nod for the schlock that was Django Unchained, then, McQueen shouldn't have a problem getting in with his film, right?  RIGHT?  Still, McQueen's graphic edge may work against him without Tarantino's comical distance.

6 (+9). Nebraska (Paramount).  Release Date: 11/22 (limited).  Director: Alexander Payne.  Screenings have gone very well, and while I had originally moved it up into the Top 10, Nat's confidence over at The Film Experience actually makes me think I was still underestimating it.  Plays at Cannes.

7 (-2). Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS).  Release Date: 12/6.  Director: Coen brothers.  Screenplay: Loosely based on folksinger Dave Van Ronk's 2005 memoir The Mayor of MacDougal (finished posthumously by Elijah Wald).  Director: Coen brothers.  Cast: Oscar Isaac, Garrett Hedlund, Carey Mulligan, Adam Driver, John Goodman, and Justin Timberlake.  Cinematographer: Bruno Delbonnel (Amélie, A Very Long Engagement, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince).  Production Designer: Jess Gonchor (True Grit, Foxcatcher, The Lone Ranger).  Costume Designer: Mary Zophres (True Grit).  Producer: Scott Rudin, Coen brothers.  Plays at Cannes.

8 (+6). Saving Mr. Banks (Walt Disney).  RD: 12/20.  Director: John Lee Hancock.  Read my review of the script here.

9 (+2). Captain Phillips (Sony).  RD: 10/11.  Director: Paul Greengrass.  Screenplay: Billy Ray.  Producer: Scott Rudin, Kevin Spacey.  Editor: Christopher Rouse (The Bourne Ultimatum, United 93).  Cinematographer: Barry Ackroyd (The Hurt Locker, United 93).  Costume Designer: Mark Bridges (The Artist, P.T. Anderson and David O. Russell films).  Is there room for two Hanks films?  Watch the trailer here.

10 (+9). American Hustle (Sony).  RD: 12/13 (limited).  Director: David O. Russell.  I was way off-base for ranking this so low, pure and simple.  I went into this new season not fully prepared and had a blindspot in my skepticism of another O. Russell slam-dunk so soon.  Or did I?  Read review of the original script here.

11 (-4). Before Midnight (SPC).  RD: 5/24.  Director: Richard Linklater.  Cast: Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke.  Editor: Sandra Adair.  Cinematographer: Lee Daniel.  Composer: Fred Frith.  Production Designer: Florian Reichmanm.  IMDb: 7.8 (1,574 users).

12 (-9). Foxcatcher (Sony).  RD: N/A.  Director: Bennett Miller.  Screenplay: E. Max Frye (Something Wild) and Dan Futterman (Capote).  Cinematographer: Greig Fraser (Zero Dark Thirty, Killing Them Softly).  Production Designer: Jess Gonchor (True Grit, Moneyball).  Costume Designer: Kasia Walicka-Maimone (Moonrise Kingdom, Moneyball).  Cast: Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, Channing Tatum, Sienna Miller, Vanessa Redgrave, Anthony Michael Hall, and Tara Subkoff.  Read my review of the script here.

13 (-7). The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount).  RD: 11/15.  Director: Martin Scorsese.  Screenplay; Terence Winter adaptated Jordan Belfort's memoir.  Cast: Leonardo DiCaprio, Matthew McConaughey, Jonah Hill, Kyle Chandler, Jon Favreau, Jean Dujardin, Rob Reiner, Spike Jonze, Christine Ebersole, Fran Lebowitz, Margot Robbie, and Joanna Lumley.  Editor: Thelma Schoonmaker.  Cinematographer: Rodrigo Prieto (Brokeback Mountain, Argo, Babel).  Composer: Howard Shore (Hugo, LOTR).  Production Designer: Bob Shaw.  Costume Designer: Sandy Powell.  Budget: $100M.  Producers: Scorsese, DiCaprio, Irwin Winkler.

14 (-2). The Immigrant (TWC).  RD: N/A.  Dir: James Gray.

15 (+3). Gravity (Universal).  RD: 10/4 (BOM) or 10/18.  Dir: Alfonso Cuarón.  Read my review of the script here.

16 (+6). The Counselor (20th Century Fox).  RD: 11/15.  Dir: Ridley Scott.  Read my review of the script here.

17 (-9). The Fifth Estate (Walt Disney).  RD: 11/15.  Bill Condon (Dreamgirls, Gods and Monsters).  Cast: Benedict Cumberbatch, Daniel Brühl, Anthony Mackie, and Carice van Houten.  Editor: Virginia Katz.  Cinematographer: Tobias A. Schliessler.

18 (+12). Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom (TWC).  RD: 11/29.  Dir: Justin Chadwick.  Screenplay: William Nicholson (Shadowlands, Gladiator, Les Misérables, Elizabeth: The Golden Age).  Cast: Idris Elba, Naomie Harris.  Composer: Alex Heffes (The Last King of Scotland).  Cinematographer: Lol Crawley (Hyde Park on Hudson).  Production Designer: Johnny Breedt (Hotel Rwanda).

19 (+8). The Past (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Asghar Farhadi (A Separation).

20 (+22). Blue Jasmine (SPC).  RD: 7/26.  Dir: Woody Allen.  Cinematographer: Javier Aguirresarobe (The Others).  Production Designer: Santo Loquasto (longtime Allen collaborator nominated for three of his films).
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21 (-8). A Most Wanted Man (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Director: Anton Crobijn.
22 (New). Frozen (Walt Disney).  RD: 11/27.  Dir: Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee.
23 (New). Prisoners (WB).  RD: 9/20.  Dir: Denis Villeneuve.  Read my script review here.
24 (+7). The Railway Man (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Jonathan Teplitzky.
25 (+24). Dallas Buyers Club (Focus).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Jean-Marc Vallée.
26 (New). Star Trek Into Darkness (Paramount).  RD: 5/17.  Dir: J.J. Abrams.
27 (+23). Malavita (Relativity).  RD: 10/18.  Dir: Luc Besson. 
28 (-3). Rush (Universal).  RD: 9/20.  Dir: Ron Howard.  Screenplay: Peter Morgan.
29 (New). Black Nativity (Fox Searchlight).  RD: 11/27.  Dir: Kasi Lemmons.
30 (+2). Devil's Knot (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Atom Egoyan.  Dir: Atom Egoyan.
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31 (+17). The Spectacular Now (A24).  RD: 8/2.  Dir: James Ponsoldt.  IMDb: 7.0 (181 users)
32 (-16). The Way, Way Back (Fox Searchlight).  RD: 7/3.  Dir: Nat Faxon & Jim Rash.  IMDb: 7.6 (452 users).  Read my thoughts on an aggregate of reviews here.
33 (-5). Knight of Cups (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Terrence Malick.
34(-5). Lawless (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Terrence Malick.
35 (+1). Grace of Monaco (TWC).  RD: 12/27.  Dir: Olivier Dahan.
36 (+15). Man of Steel (WB).  RD: 6/14.  Dir: Zack Snyder.
37 (-13). The Great Gatsby (WB).  Released.  Dir: Baz Luhrman.
38 (+5). Oldboy (FilmDistrict).  RD: 10/11.  Dir: Spike Lee.
39 (New).  Mud (Lionsgate).  Released.  Dir: Jeff Nichols.  IMDb: 8.0 (1,904 users).  RT/MC: 98/76.
40 (-6). Serena (Magnolia).  RD: 9/27.  Dir: Susanne Bier.
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41 (New). The Hunt (Magnolia).  RD: 7/12.  Dir: Thomas Vinterberg.
42 (New). Runner, Runner (20th Century Fox).  RD: 9/27.  Dir: Brad Furman.
43 (-22). Her (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Spike Jonze.  An Annapurna production.
44 (-7). 47 Ronin (Universal).  RD: 12/25.  Dir: Carl Rinsch.
45 (-25).  Ender's Game (Summit).  RD: 11/1.  Dir: Gavin Hood.
46 (-6). Elysium (Sony).  RD: 8/9.  Dir: Neill Blomkamp.  Read my script review here.
47 (-30). The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus).  Released.  Dir: Derek Cianfrance.  IMDb: 7.8 (17,088 users).  RT/MC: 80/68.
48 (New). Parkland (Open Road).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Peter Landesman.
49 (New). Monsters University (Walt Disney).  RD: 6/21.  Dir: Dan Scanlon.
50 (-15). Only God Forgives (RADiUS-TWC).  RD: 7/19.  Dir: Nicolas Winding Refn. 
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51 (-28). Ain't Them Bodies Saints (IFC).  RD: 8/16.  Dir: David Lowery.  IMDb: 7.7 (178 users).
52 (-11). Diana (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Oliver Hirschbiegel.
53 (-15). Thérèse (LD Entertainment).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Charlie Stratton.
54 (-2). The Butler (TWC).  RD: 10/18.  Dir: Lee Daniels.
55 (-11). Out of the Furnace (Relativity).  RD: 10/4.  Dir: Scott Cooper.  Read my script review here.
56 (-10). The Invisible Woman (SPC).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Ralph Fiennes.
57 (New). The Two Faces of January (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Hossein Amini.  
58 (New). The World's End (Focus).  RD: 8/23.  Dir: Edgar Wright.
59 (New). Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (Dimension).  RD: 10/4.  Dir: Frank Miller, Robert Rodriguez.
60 (-50). 42 (WB).  Released.  Director/Screenplay: Brian Helgeland.  IMDb: 7.7 (8,030 users).  RT/MC: 77/62.
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61 (-28). The Bling Ring (A24).  RD: 6/9.  Dir: Sofia Coppola.
62 (-23). Labor Day (Paramount).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Jason Reitman.   Read my script/book review here.
63 (-18). Snowpiercer (TWC).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Joon-ho Bong.
64 (New). Under the Skin (N/A).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Jonathan Glazer.
65 (New). The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (Lionsgate).  RD: 11/22.  Dir: Francis Lawrence.
66 (-40). The Grandmaster (TWC).  RD: 8/23.  Dir: Kar Wai Wong.  IMDb: 6.8 (2,687 users).
67 (New). Frances Ha (IFC).  RD: 5/17.  Dir: Noah Baumbach.  IMDb: 7.6 (555 users).
68 (New). Night Moves (N/A).  RD: 9/20.  Dir: Kelly Reichardt.
69 (New). After Earth (Sony).  RD: 5/31.  Dir: M. Night Shyamalan.
70 (New). The Seventh Son (WB).  RD: 10/18.  Dir: Sergey Bodrov.
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71 (New). Pacific Rim (WB).  RD: 7/12.  Dir: Guillermo del Toro.
72 (New). Thor: The Dark World (Walt Disney).  RD: 11/8.  Dir: Alan Taylor.
73 (New). Closed Circuit (Focus).  RD: 8/28.  Dir: John Crowley.
74 (New). The Lone Ranger (Walt Disney).  RD: 7/3.  Dir: Gore Verbinski.
75 (-28). Kill Your Darlings (SPC).  RD: N/A.  Dir: John Krokidas.  IMDb: 7.6 (339 users).
76 (-23). Lovelace (RADiUS-TWC).  RD: N/A.  Dir: Rob Epstein / Jeffrey Friedman.  IMDb: 6.7 (404 users).
77 (New). Side Effects (Open Road).  Released.  Dir: Steven Soderberg.  IMDb: 7.3 (17,250 users).  RT/MC: 85/75.
78 (New). World War Z (Paramount).  RD: 6/21.  Dir: Marc Forster.
79 (New). Iron Man 3 (Walt Disney).  Released.  Dir: Shane Black.  IMDb: 7.8.  RT/MC: 78/66.
80 (New). The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (WB).  RD: 12/13.  Dir: Peter Jackson.
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81 (New). I'm So Excited (SPC).  RD: 6/28.  Dir: Pedro Almodóvar.  IMDb: 5.6 (1,951 users).
82 (-28). To the Wonder (Magnolia).  Released.  Dir: Terrence Malick.  IMDb: 6.6 (3,996 users).  RT/MC: 42/59.