I'm sensing a good showing for Amour, but not clear on just what categories it will take. Did you get on the Emmanuelle bandwagon with Tariq Khan, or stick with weakish frontrunner Jennifer Lawrence, who had been in the lead for five months now and go with the AMPAS rewarding Amour for its screenplay? Silver Linings Playbook must pick up at least one win for acting, no? If it's not Lawrence, long-shot Robert De Niro will win, right? Every movie to cover all acting categories in Academy history has taken at least one thespian win home.
Where am I placing a good share of my bets? Life of Pi. If the Ang Lee train loads up on Oscar night, I don't want to be wrong and am calling it for every category its competitive in.
50% Argo
42.5% Lincoln
5% Silver Linings Playbook
2.5% Life of Pi
0% Les Misérables
0% Amour
0% Django Unchained
0% Beasts of the Southern Wild
0% Zero Dark Thirty
35% Ang Lee
30% Steven Spielberg
25% David O. Russell
10% Michael Haneke
0% Benh Zeitlin
Best Actress42.5% Jennifer Lawrence
37.5% Emmanuelle Riva
17.5% Jessica Chastain
2.5% Naomi Watts
0% Quvenzhané Wallis
It will be BAFTA winner Riva's birthday on Oscar night and she will have flown all the way over from France, despite her fears. It's a lovely narrative behind a great performance, but will it be enough? Silver Linings Playbook's MVP is Jennifer Lawrence, to a lesser extent, its screenplay. However, 1) it's not "her [character's] movie," (though her performance suggests otherwise), 2) it's partly a comedy, and 3) it may be too early to crown her with Oscar. Frenchman Jean Dujardin will be handing out the Oscar to the Best Actress winner. Will enough voters have seen the Frenchwoman's movie?
100% Daniel Day-Lewis
0% Hugh Jackman
0% Joaquin Phoenix
0% Bradley Cooper
0% Denzel Washington
Day-Lewis already had this when he made the cover of Time (others had him shrewdly pegged for a win earlier than this), but with Lincoln seemingly having lost steam in just about every category it's nominated in, what appreciation for the film may be distilled down to a win for the man playing the title character.
98.5% Anne Hathaway
1% Sally Field
0.5% Amy Adams
0% Jacki Weaver
0% Helen Hunt
I wonder if the backlash against Hathaway will be big enough. Never say never. But, it seems like such a done deal. Not awarding her at this point, like with Argo, would just be mean, no matter how much I've made fun of her.
32.5% Robert De Niro
30% Tommy Lee Jones
30% Christopher Waltz
5% Alan Arkin
2.5% Philip Seymour Hoffman
This is just a crapshoot. And, again, I'm taking the suicide route and going with the actor with the most Oscars who hasn't previously won anything this whole season. I'm also betting that the performance of Waltz, who has the precursors on his side, will be seen as too similar to his other work. Personal bias is also affecting me here. SO much. Don't listen to me when it comes to this category.
35% Argo
32.5% Silver Linings Playbook
32.5% Lincoln
0% Life of Pi
0% Beasts of the Southern Wild
The WGA-win for Argo sealed the deal for me, though it's still pretty close.
35% Amour
32.5% Django Unchained (aka My Achilles Heel)
17.5% Moonrise Kingdom
15% Zero Dark Thirty
0% Flight
Who knows, Moonrise Kingdom could upset. With gas still in its tank from the WGA win, Zero Dark Thirty could rally back and claim what is rightfully his; or, gulp, the AMPAS could follow The Globes and BAFTA and reward that unclean film Django Unchained. My Amour prediction is pretty much a suicide guess, if you consider that most Oscar winners in this category have won the WGA (Amour wasn't nominated). In the instances that it didn't, The King's Speech and, another foreign language film, Talk to Her won BAFTA. Good Will Hunting took The Globe. Almost Famous had the BFCA. All signs point to Django, but I'm allowing personal bias to get in the way. I'm saying that the violence will have turned off the AMPAS. Though, they may want to honor the anti-slavery movie with a lot of violence, considering they just may well practically shut out the anti-slavery movie with little. Still, I'm assuming the AMPAS will have seen Amour, been moved deeply, and vote with their hearts, artificial and otherwise. Notice how both my suicide guesses involve betting against Django? This could be my downfall.
And the Rest:
Cinematography: Life of Pi
2. Skyfall
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Editing: Argo
Production Design: Anna Karenina
2. Les Misérables
3. Life of Pi
4. Lincoln
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Makeup: Les Misérables
Score: Life of Pi
2. Argo
3. Skyfall
Song: Skyfall
2. Les Misérables
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
2. Skyfall
3. Argo
4. Life of Pi
Sound Editing: Life of Pi
2. Skyfall
3. Argo
4. Zero Dark Thirty
Foreign Language: Amour
Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
2. Brave
3. Frankenweenie
4. ParaNorman
Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man
2. The Invisible War
Animated Short: Paperman
Documentary Short: Inocente
2. Open Heart
3. Mondays at Racine
Live Action Short: Curfew
Prediction Count:
Life of Pi (5)
Les Misérables (3)
Argo (3)
Silver Linings Playbook (2)
Amour (2)
Anna Karenina (2)
Lincoln (1)
Skyfall (1)
Django Unchained (0)
Zero Dark Thirty (0)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (0)
Likeliest Wins from Most Likely to Least:
Life of Pi: Visual Effects > Cinematography > Sound Editing = Score > Director > Production Design > Sound Mixing > Picture > Screenplay > Editing > Song
Pi could be the big winner of the evening, as Ang Lee's last two big Oscar pushes both didn't do too badly. So, how many? One, two, three, four or ... five? Five is The Aviator territory. Still, how much is too much? Three or four predicted wins seems so much safer. But, I find myself, along with Silver Linings Playbook, covering all the bases, because I don't know what to leave out.
Les Misérables: Sup. Actress > Sound Mixing > Makeup > Production Design > Song > Costume Design > Actor > Picture
Oscar is choosing to honor the movie musical genre on Oscar night. Will it shower the only musical nominated with multiple wins? Three seems to be the minimum. Will it tie Pi?
Argo: Editing > Picture > Screenplay > Sound Editing = Score > Sound Mixing > Sup. Actor
The likely Best Picture winner may make history with some of the fewest wins ever, but it appears it's en route to taking two other Oscars home. Could it sneak in one or two more?
Silver Linings Playbook: Actress > Sup. Actor > Screeenplay > Director > Editing > Picture > Actor > Sup. Actress
SLP could either go home empty-handed, take three big ones, or something in between. It's Harvey, though. He has to take something, right? There's always Django. Here's another way of looking at it: in 2009, he only got an Oscar for Christoph Waltz, who was the clear favorite in the category. In 2008, he got two actors Oscars for different films. Could he do it again? My thinking is to bet on Lawrence and De Niro. One of them is bound to win, right? (I'm so stubborn.)
Amour: Foreign Language Film > Screenplay = Actress > Director > Picture
Amour will win one, but probably no more than three.
Anna Karenina: Costume Design > Production Design > Score > Cinematography
The other non-BP nominee who could be a player on Oscar night.
Lincoln: Actor > Supporting Actor = Director > Screenplay > Production Design > Picture > Editing > Sound Editing > Costume Design > Score > Cinematography > Sup. Actress
The once perceived frontrunner may go home with only one Oscar for Best Actor. Daniel Day-Lewis is the film's MVP. Could he carry Tommy Lee Jones with him? Or Steven Spielberg?
Skyfall: Song > Cinematography > Sound Editing > Score > Sound Mixing
Nominated for five awards, it's possible that it could take four awards. But, having not been able to achieve a BP nomination, will that negate its chances? Definitely will go home with at least one.
Django Unchained: Screenplay > Supporting Actor > Sound Editing > Cinematography > Picture
I hope Django goes home empty-handed. The smart money would be to predict it will take at least one home. The only problem is which one, and how much would it suck to pick the wrong one? That's why I'm going with zero, along with predicting two for SLP. That may cost me three points out of twenty-four. Am I willfully ignoring the effectiveness of the Harvey machine here?
Zero Dark Thirty: Screenplay = Sound Editing > Actress > Editing > Picture
Thirty is likely to go home empty-handed. I would prefer to be pleasantly surprised, even if it costs me a point(s) on predictions.
Beasts of the Southern Wild: Screenplay > Actress > Director > Picture
A dark-horse contender that probably will not win anything. Sorry hushpuppy.
Gold Derby Addendum (added 2/22)
For shits and giggles, I thought I'd list the Gold Derby consensus. They are pretty much in agreement on nine categories. Another eleven categories has a predominance of group think (which I diverge from a couple of times). Two more categories they go 50/50 and then two more are almost three-way races. If you want to go with group-think, it can take you through almost all the categories, but you're on your own with Director and Production Design. The only movies which overlap in the four more uncertain categories are Lincoln and Django Unchained. Just how much the AMPAS loved those two films may be indicated on Oscar night.
All-In (with a couple of dissenters, but not a significant amount)
Picture: Argo
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Sup. Actress: Anne Hathaway
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Song: Skyfall
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Foreign Language Film: Amour
Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man
Heavily Favored
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, with an Emmanuelle Riva brigade
*I'm going with the favorite
Adapted Screenplay: Argo, with a small Lincoln contingent
*I'm going with the favorite
Editing: Argo, with some unbelievably suggesting Zero Dark Thirty will be the winner
*I'm going with the favorite (which is really a gimme)
Cinematography: Life of Pi, with some thinking Skyfall could take it
*I'm going with the favorite
Score: Life of Pi, with a tiny group thinking Lincoln or Argo
*I'm going with the favorite
Makeup: The Hobbit, with a healthy set of backers behind Les Misérables
*I'm going with the underdog, I guess
Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty, but with three other films being predicted by at least three
*I'm going with one of the underdogs, which I'm not so sure is an underdog, Life of Pi
Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph, with a small group calling Frankenweenie
*I'm going with the favorite
Animated Short: Paperman, with some others calling Adam and Dog or Head Over Heels
*I'm going with the favorite
Documentary Short: Open Heart, with Inocente having a strong enough backing
*I'm going with Inocente
Live Action Short: Curfew, though every single nominee has someone predicting it
*I'm going with the favorite
50/50
Director: Steven Spielberg/Ang Lee, with edge to Spielberg
*I'm flipping the coin for Lee
50/50 with possible spoiler
Production Design: Anna Karenina vs. Les Misérables, with tiny group of Life of Pi predictors
*Going with Anna Karenina
Hot Mess
Sup. Actor: Robert De Niro in lead, with Tommy Lee Jones close behind, and then Christophe Waltz
*I'm going with the presumed favorite, though it was before he collected so much support
Original Screenplay: Django Unchained in lead, with Zero Dark Thirty close behind, and then Amour
*I'm going with the third likeliest
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