Best Original Screenplay 2012 Oscar Prediction: Amour

So, I'm thinking the art of prognosticating the Oscars is to stick with history, logic, and group-think on most categories, and stretch your neck out on a couple of races that may be worth the gamble.  Original Screenplay is going to be one of those for me.  This is an especially tough category, because there is just no easy guess in foresight.  Zero Dark Thirty has been the favorite of many (including myself), as well as the easiest to predict for a win.  If it wins on Oscar night, I will be happy to be wrong.  Kathryn Bigelow's challenging, intense action-war-drama is based on film partner Mark Boal's whip-smart screenplay.  There is no more deserving 2012 film of this win than Thirty, not nominated or not.  But, the torture controversy drummed up by reactionary liberals in December not only sidelined the momentum it was gaining with critics, but railroaded its Oscar heat and quite possibly shut it out from any wins.  There seems to be some regret from the knee-jerk outcries with celebrities like Martin Sheen publicly distancing himself from ever being attached to the detracting of the film.  But, I do wonder if any kind of buyer's remorse truly exists.  Critical groups which singled out Boal for his screenplay include: Chicago, Dallas-Forth Worth, San Francisco, Vancouver, and the Satellite Awards.  He's gotten nominated for just about everything else.  The WGA hasn't announced their picks and they will likely go with Thirty, but the victory will carry little weight having no competition from its main Oscar rivals, Django Unchained and Amour.

Now, why would one predict Django?  There are tons of reasons.  Quentin Tarantino's screenplay has taken the lion's share of precursors, major (Golden Globe, BAFTA, BFCA) and been nominated for the minor ones (Chicago, DC, San Diego, Dallas-Forth Worth, Vancouver London).  Django has done exceptionally well at the box-office, grossing over $150M domestically and double that worldwide.  Tarantino, one of the few writer/director Hollywood icons working today, hasn't won an Oscar since 1994's Pulp Fiction.  Part of my challenge with examining passing him over is my bias against the film, which is enormous.  Loved the first hour, detested the last two.  Just shoddy.  I couldn't get out of the theater soon enough.  If I get it wrong, who cares.  One element that gives me some pause, however, is the comic-violent content.  And it did seem to catch some flack, warranted or otherwise, for its use of the n-bomb.  In 2009, the similar Inglourious Basterds faced stiffer competition with eventual Best Picture winner The Hurt Locker from the Bigelow/Boal team.  Have the tables turned?  The AMPAS had no problem with No Country for Old Men or The Departed.

However, one of the elements Oscar voters love about films is to be moved emotionally.  I'm not you're average person, so what brings tears to my eyes isn't necessarily going to resonate with others.  However, I'm not totally out of touch, and if there is one film in this category that got to me, as it did others, it was Amour.  I ugly cried towards the end like I don't remember.  I sobbed a great deal during Les Misérables, but it was more constant and tempered, for lack of a better word.  With Amour, it hit me out of nowhere, and it was sharp, deep, and unmanageable, and still resonated with me as the credits began rolling.  Alas, none of the other films in contention in this category were really designed to bring about such emotions.  Moonrise was sweet and nostalgic. Zero was an unrelenting, sobering procedural with a final shot that stirred emotions in a partly cerebral context.  Flight moved some, but not nearly enough for me and just wasn't my cup of tea.  Django wanted to resonate emotionally with audiences while it reframed history, but it just failed on so many levels.  Others will disagree. The AMPAS just may go for Amour.  In such an uncertain year it's kind of hard to imagine that Amour will only go home with one Oscar (for Foreign Language film).  Some are predicting its leading lady Emmanuelle Riva.  Others Michael Haneke for screenplay.  Even others are suggesting he may land the directing Oscar.  My thoughts are that in order for that to happen, he first has to scoop up screenplay.  So, in a way, I'm curbing my losses while playing the odds.  Or something like that.  If Amour takes more than one Oscar, I'm thinking this is the place it starts.

But, don't forget that Amour has been nominated for very little and has even won less.  Django just recently beat the movie for screenwriting at BAFTA.  Only London has awarded Haneke for his writing skills.  And, further, don't forget that Amour is a foreign language film and has only grossed $3M.  Not even A Separation, as great as it was, could win Best Screenplay, last year.  In the last thirty-two years, Talk to Her was the only foreign language film to take a screenplay award.  It has been only one of three films to gross less than $10M at the box-office along with Gods and Monsters and Tender Mercies (which adjusted for inflation, I'm sure would be much greater).  Basically, Amour has next to nothing going for it in terms of winning, but I'm going for it.  Just a hunch.  We'll see if it pays off.  I know I may very well regret wasting a guess.

Moonrise has been nominated by WGA, BAFTA, BFCA, New York, Chicago, Boston, DC, San Diego, and Independent Spirit (not awarded yet).  Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola won Phoenix, Central Ohio, Southeaster, and Online.  I was convinced Moonrise was going to be nominated for BP.  Does it still have a chance at a win?  Flight's John Gatins was nominated by BFCA and WGA.

Gold Derby is still on the Zero Dark Thirty kick, though it may change with Django's recent BAFTA win.  So far, Zero still has Thelma Adams, Matt Atchity, Edward Douglas, Thom Geler, Michael Hogan, Kevin Polowy, Steve Pond, Alex Suskind, Chuck Walton, Jeff Wells, and Susan Wloszczyna, though I imagine some of them will jump ship and join Richard Horgan, Michael Musto, Tom O'Neill, Christopher Rosen, Paul Sheehan, Keith Simanton, and Peter Travers for Django.  Pete Hammond, Dave Karger, Tariq Khan, Guy Lodge, Sasha Stone, Anne Thompson, and Glenn Whipp are also calling Amour.

By percentages:

Amour 42.5%
Django Unchained 40%
Zero Dark Thirty 15%
Moonrise Kingdom 2.5%
Flight 0%

What are your thoughts?