Best Documentary Oscar 2012 Prediction: Searching for Sugar Man

Last year, I correctly predicted Undefeated for Best Documentary.  I can't really tell you what my logic was, because my knee-jerk reaction right now is, "Why didn't I go with commercial favorite Pina?"  Perhaps it was because TWC was the distributor and Pina was too abstract?  Who knows.  I should really document these things.  The year before, Inside Job did do the best at the box-office and took home the top prize.  I couldn't tell you why The Cove beat Food, Inc., but it did have a Hollywood actor as producer.  It also had "that scene."  You know what I'm talking about.  Man on Wire was simply a fascinating story that beat Werner Herzog's meditation on the South Pole Encounters at the End of the World.  Previous nominee Alex Gibney won over No End in Sight, as well as Michael Moore's Sicko.  An Inconvenient Truth was a commercial favorite over WGA-winner Deliver Us from Evil.  Sugar Man, Job, The Cove, Taxi to the Dark Side all won the WGA.  All the other Oscar-winners weren't nominated in the aforementioned examples, except when you get to March of the Penguins.  Remember March of the Penguins?  Those waddling tuxedo birds were really popular in the mid-2000s (Happy Feet anyone?).

Well, the popular favorite this year is Searching for Sugar Man this year.  The film about two South Africans looking for supposedly reclusive American musician Rodriguez has an 8.2 IMDb rating and over three times as many votes as the next nominee The Invisible War.  Ironically, while documentary shorts are the ugly stepchild of Oscar night (mostly due to depressing subject matter), documentary features are often more embraced than the foreign language films.  Rotten Tomatoes tells a somewhat similar story to the IMDb, with War and How to Survive a Plague receiving perfect scores, as well as a healthy sized number of reviews in context.  Sugar Man has over twice as many critical responses (but five "rotten" reviews).  The film has been cited for some inaccuracies regarding Rodriguez' career.  Metacritic reflects about the same story as RT, but there's an expectional drop in positive responses for Sugar Man.  However, the documentary has grossed $3.3M domestic, which is far and above the take of the other four put together.  On the awards circuit, 5 Broken Cameras won a few festival awards, including a directing prize at Sundance.  The Gatekeepers was recognized by the critics of NBR, NSFC, and LA and nominated by the PGA along with Sugar Man.  New York, along with some other minor critic groups, chose How to Survive a Plague.  The Invisible War has also won some critic awards as well as Best Documentary at Sundance.  It was also nominated by the WGA, but lost to Sugar Man.  (Does it seem weird to you that the WGA has a category for documentaries?  Or maybe it's just me.)

The Gatekeepers has Sony Picture Classics and a Facebook page.  Sugar Man is also from SPC and has almost 25,000 likes on FB.  A number also met by The Invisible War which has an obscure distributor.  How to Survive a Plague is a Sundance Selects release, and has almost 10,000 likes on FB.  Okay, it feels weird to be discussing FB likes, but it's relevant, no?  

5 Broken Cameras and The Gatekeepers seem to be out, based on all the evidence available.  Sugar Man is obviously the lazy guess, with The Invisible War being a possible upset.  Kirby Dick has made quite a name for himself, having already been nominated for Twist of Faith, as well as being behind such exposes as Outrage and This Film Is Not Yet Rated.  Sugar Man director Malik Bendjelloul is on his first feature length which is produced by Oscar winner Simon Chinn (Man on Wire).

What Does Gold Derby Say?
They're all going for Sugar Man, predictably, except for Rosen (How to Survive a Plague) and Simanton (The Invisible War).