Best Animated Feature Oscar 2012 Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph

How are you doing with predictions thus far this Oscar Season?  When people say that this is the most unpredictable year in ages, they aren't kidding.  More categories than not have two or more serious contenders which they could make a sound and logical argument for.  Best Animated Feature is one of those categories, because, when you look at history and stats, there just isn't a common thread to be found.  The tradition for the last ten or so years has been following box-office, reviews, and awards.  Recent previous races have made it all too easy to predict, as there have been animated features that either were or came close to being Best Picture nominees, as well as scooping up a screenplay nod and/or technical recognition, like Shrek, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, Wall-E, Up, and Toy Story 3.  Real slam-dunk types that both hit above a 95% RT, as well as cleaned up at the box-office.  There was really no questioning their chances.  Other years had their own variations.  Spirited Away made little at the box-office, but it had no critical competition, and it was a way to honor highly respected artist Hayao Miyazaki who has been working in the industry for decades.  A similar situation arose with Peter Lord and Nick Park when they released another Wallace & Gromit feature in 2005.  Last year wasn't cut and dried, as all five nominees landed an RT score in the 80-something range.  Rango stood slightly above the others, but its box-office was still behind Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots.  However, considering it took every major precursor but the Golden Globe (which went to a film not nominated for Oscar), it was still pretty inevitable that Rango would win.

Things got the murkiest, however, in 2006.  You had three films that received solid, but unenthusiastic reviews, with Happy Feet and Cars doing exceptional box-office over Monster House.  Cars received an extra nod for song and took the Golden Globe, and even took as many or more critical awards than the other two, but Feet, armed with BAFTA, Online, Dallas-Fort Worth, DC, LA, and Toronto, was honored on Oscar night for Best Animated Feature.  It was probably the hardest year to predict up until now.

This year, we have every nominee landing in the RT 85 - 88% range, with the exception of Pixar's Brave, which is below at 78%.  Yet, it was Brave that took both the BAFTA (Ralph wasn't nominated) and the Golden Globe, the only honors its received this season for Best Animated Feature (but the big ones).  Though, the Globe is not the most reliable indicator in challenging years.  Anne Thompson and Brad Brevet are predicting the movie to win, but with no nod even for its song "Learn Me Right," one might theorize that support for the highest grossing nominee ($237M) is soft.  The only other commercial juggernaut is Wreck-It Ralph, which, at 85%, wasn't received critically that different than the rest.  Yet, it too didn't get nominated for its song, "When Can I See You Again?"  Is that necessary a game changer?  I haven't seen most of the nominees, but, from a marketing standpoint, Ralph doesn't exactly have the prestige factor as Brave, does it?

Let's look at the track record for various groups.  In the last eleven years, the Online and Dallas-Forth Worth Critics' winner has gone on to Oscar eleven times.  This year, Online went with the anti-bullying movie ParaNorman and the other chose Ralph.  Rich Moore's Ralph is backed up by Dallas-Fort Worth, BFCA, NBR, and Austin.  The DC Critics are on eight-in-a-row and chose ParaNorman.  Chicago also went with the film and have an impeccable track record, but they didn't start awarding animated features until right after the most challenging year before now.  In fact, the only other groups that recognized Happy Feet were LA and Toronto, who both have very poor track records on predictions.  This year, Toronto went with ParaNorman and the other Frankenweenie.  Along with The Pirates, they are all stop-motion animated features.  South Eastern, Central Ohio, San Diego, San Francisco, and Las Vegas all went with ParaNorman this year.  Five Gold Derby experts (Atchity, Horgan, Lodge, Suskind, and new addition Ramin Setoodeh--you know, the guy who writes all of those thought-provoking, homophobic articles for Newsweek/Daily Beast) are calling Tim Burton film for a win, believing that the AMPAS will finally single him out personally and recognize him for his animated work.  The feature expands on one of Burton's early shorts coming out of Cal Arts, and has the whole "full circle" effect.  Its backed up by Kansas City, Florida, Boston, LA.

Obviously, no one is predicting The Pirates, though Lodge strangely has it in fourth.  And, in another bit of strangeness, not one pundit has predicted Chris Butler's first writing/directing feature ParaNorman in first or second.  It almost makes me want to predict the film to win. But, then, there doesn't seem to be a plausible argument to be made that the AMPAS would go for ParaNorman over Frankenweenie.

It seems like this is a year where statistics are thrown out the window and it's anybody's game.  But, when given the choice, the AMPAS don't seem to go for the dark, haunted genre, as they didn't with Corpse Bride or Monster House.  But, would they really go for a movie like Ralph based on a video game?  Is Shrek, being a blunt green ogre, the model here?  Ralph is the popular choice (all of the rest of the Gold Derby pundits have followed suit), but I'm almost tempted to go out on a whim and predict that the AMPAS, commercial success be damned, will choose to honor stop-motion animation this year, but not necessarily Tim Burton.  Focus Features only has Anna Karenina and Moonrise Kingdom this year in limited contention.  Could it be that they might spend their money pushing ParaNorman?  It would be a gamble.  So, if you want to play it safe, which might be the best path to take with this category, I'd suggest sticking with Ralph, which is, I guess what I'm going to do.

Wreck-It Ralph  30%
ParaNorman       27.5%
Frankenweenie   22.5%
Brave                  20%
The Pirates         0%