Best Costume Design 2012 Oscar Prediction: Anna Karenina

Royalty porn, period, fantasy, and musicals, like with production design, are the genres which rule costume design.  As of late, being a Best Picture nominee is no where near a perquisite to win, which suggests that Anna Karenina is likelier to win here than in art direction, if not both.  Fromt the perspective of Les Misérables: Chicago and Moulin Rouge! were both flashy musicals and BP nominees.  Dreamgirls would have likely been in the BP mix had there been a Field of Ten, but it lost to Marie Antoinette.  Also note, both Dreamgirls and Moulin Rouge! failed to win anything beforehand for costume design, yet one lost and the other won.  Anna Karenina's Jacqueline Durran has managed to pick up all the major precursors (BFCA, Las Vegas, Phoenix) thus far. The CDG awards will be announced on the 19th of February.  The two Snow Whites (Colleen Atwood and the recently deceased Eiko Ishioka) will be battling out with others in the fantasy genre.  And Karenina will have to defend herself against Les Misérables (Paco Delgado) and Lincoln (Joanna Johnston), etc, in the period section.  For Delgado and Johnston, this is their first Oscar nomination.  This will have been Ishioka's second and final nod, having won for Dracula in 1992.  Atwood has been nominated ten times now, having won three (Chicago, Memoirs of a Geisha, and more recently Alice in Wonderland).  However, Durran, has been nominated for her third venture with Joe Wright and never been up to the podium.  From a Oscar history viewpoint, she appears to be ripe for a win.

The BAFTA's will be awarded on the 10th and they include all of the Oscar nominees minus Mirror Mirror.  Until recently, Best Picture nominees/winners/Field of Tenners tended to sweep up this award whether they ruled the night or partially shared it with others.  This was almost a rule until a stretch that started with Marie Antoinette and last for five years with mostly royalty porn.

2011
BP-certified The Artist (CDGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Phoenix, Las Vegas) won over Hugo and company.

2010
Alice in Wonderland (DGA, BAFTA BFCA, Phoenix, Las Vegas) won over The King's Speech (CGDA).

2009
The Young Victoria (CDGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Phoenix) won over The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (CDGA) and Nine.  Inglorious Basterds (Las Vegas) wasn't nominated.

2008
The Duchess (CDGA, BAFTA, Phoenix) won over The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Las Vegas).

2007
Four-time nominated Alexandra Byrne, who costumed the box-office and critical bomb Elizabeth: The Golden Age, which didn't gather any wins, but was nominated by CDGA and BAFTA, prevailed over the favored Colleen Atwood for Sweeney Todd (CDGA, Phoenix, Las Vegas), as well as first-time nominee Marit Allen for La vie en rose (BAFTA), who died before nominations were announced.

2006
Marie Antoinette (Phoenix, Las Vegas) won over Curse of the Golden Flower (CDGA), The Queen (CDGA), and Dreamgirls.  Pan's Labyrinth (CDGA, BAFTA) wasn't nominated.

2005
Memoirs of a Geisha (CDGA, BAFTA, Phoenix) won when both King Kong (Las Vegas) and Narnia (CDGA) weren't nominated.

2004
The Aviator (Phoenix, Las Vegas) won over Lemony Snicket's (CDGA) and earned more Oscars (five) than best picture winner Million Dollar Baby (four).  And Vera Drake (BAFTA) wasn't nominated.

2003
LOTR III (CDGA, Las Vegas) won over Master and Commander (BAFTA) in a sweep.  Down With Love (Phoenix) was not nominated.

2002
Chicago (CDGA, Phoenix) won in a sweep when LOTR II (BAFTA, Las Vegas) wasn't in contention.

2001
Moulin Rouge! was nominated by BAFTA and Phoenix, but didn't have any precursor wins when it took Oscar over LOTR I (Phoenix, Las Vegas), Gosford Park (BAFTA) and Harry Potter I (CDGA).

2000
Gladiator (Las Vegas) managed to sneak passed How the Grinch Stole Christmas (CDGA, Phoenix) and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (BAFTA) for one of its few Oscar wins.

1999
Topsy-Turvy was a surprise winner against Colleen Atwood for Sleepy Hallow (CDGA, BAFTA), who would win her first Oscar three years later.  Star Wars "III" (Las Vegas) wasn't nominated.

1998
And Shakespeare in Love won against both Pleasantville (CDGA) and Velvet Goldmine (BAFTA) in a sweep.

Jacqueline Durran

Like with production design, this seems to be Anna Karenina vs. Les Misérables, with a possible upset from Mirror Mirror, with the remote possibility of Lincoln taking it in a sweep.  Ironically, it's only the evil queen's costume in Snow White and the Huntsman that left any kind of lingering effect on my memory (though Mirror Mirror's version was kind of iconic).  Because this is the last film that Ishioka designed, the significance may carry some emotional weight with voters, or not like with Marit Allen in 2007.  Most pundits are leaning towards Karenina, unlike with Production Design, which is more 50/50 against Les Misérables.  And there are those forging their owns paths with Lincoln (Thom Geler, Sasha Stone) and Mirror Mirror (Christopher Rosen).  Seems like this should be payback time for Durran never getting the proper attention she deserved for designed that green dress Keira Knightley wore in Atonement.

Here is how I'd break it down by percentage:

Anna Karenina 55%
Les Misérables 30%
Mirror Mirror 12.5%
Lincoln 2.5%
Snow White and the Huntsman 0%

From a personal vantage, other than what I already stated, I haven't seen Karenina, thought the costumes do look gorgeous and Les Misérables was kind of underwhelming.  I was indifferent to Lincoln.  What is your prediction?